ABSTRACT, SUMMARY

Futuretronium is about the rate of change. Not only change accelerated by new scientific discoveries and technological breakthroughs. Change is now poising new challenges but also novel opportunities and benefits for those with a preparation and a will to make the most of twentieth-one century.

#1 FUTURETRONIUM®, AND THE ADMINISTRATION AND APPLICATION OF THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD WITHOUT INNUENDOS AND IN CRESCENDO AS FLUID POINTS OF INFLECTIONS ASCERTAIN THAT THE MORROW IS A THING OF THE PAST.

#2 FUTURETRONIUM®, SUBSEQUENTLY, THERE IS NOW AND HERE AVAILABLE THE UNABRIDGED, AUTHORITATIVE ELICITATION AND ELUCIDATION OF ACTIONABLE KNOWLEDGE FROM AND FOR THE INCESSANTLY ARRHYTHMIC, ABRUPT, ANTAGONISTIC, MORDANT, CAUSTIC, AND ANARCHISTIC FUTURE, AS WELL AS THE CONTENTIOUS INTERRELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SUCH FUTURE AND THE PRESENT.

#3 FUTURETRONIUM®, A RADICAL YET RIGOROUS STRONG-SENSE AND CRITICO-CREATIVE «FUTURES THINKING», SYSTEMS APPROACH TO QUINTESSENTIAL UNDERSTANDING OF THE COMPLEXITIES, SUBTLETIES, AND INTRICACIES, AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITIES TO BE EXPLOITED OUT OF THE DRIVING FORCES INSTILLING AND INFLICTING PERPETUAL CHANGE INTO TWENTIETH-ONE CENTURY .

KEYWORDS: future studies, foresight research, risk management, scenario methodology, strong artificial intelligence, robotics, intelligence technology, nanotechnology, biotechnology, applied omniscience, driving forces, trends, forecasts, changed change, intelligence, caveat.

In the last analysis and very seriously stated, the view here offers a lucrative and a useful learning and a practical tool that requires from practitioners much better preparedness before systemic volatility, universal uncertainty and ubiquitous change and ambiguity. When and if officially committed with my client and/or customer, I will not unveil trends or tendency.

I will only unveil the intermeshing, the intertwining, and the inter-coalescing of the Driving forces that will shape and re-shape the future and the present / continuum (so-called) in the most unambiguous way. I will offer also the methodical steps to outsmart every downside and upside!

The objective is the understanding the complex and subtle nature and progression of many explosive driving forces that shape and re-shape the known and unknown world. Futurists speak, out of brief synthesis, about trends and tendencies and propensities of some of said driving forces. These driving forces are not only mega, diverse dynamos that output change but also challenges, opportunities and benefits for those who are prepared and paying incessantly great detailed attention.

These driving forces, incidentally, expel: (1) Open-ended changes, (2) Preemptive changes (that is, boundaryless) changes.

You manage risks to increase your benefits and opportunities and to augment the resiliency and adaptability of the sustainability of said benefits and opportunities. In Transformative and Integrative Risk Management (below), managing risks ─ not to bring about illusions of meaning ─ are nothing else than the optimum management of the upsides and downsides embedded in the driving forces.

Subsequently, the material in this book ranges over many disciplines, as well as the work of many outstanding scientists.

Furthermore, present driving forces (science, technology, society, politics and economy) are churning insurmountable amounts of unprecedented change with increasing energy and scope. Accordingly, the present material is communicated with marked emphasis indeed. Emphasis will be reiterated. The undersigned does not and will not dare to oversimplify and/or underestimate the consequences and sequels of these gargantuan driving forces.

TO OFFER GREATER INSIGHT QUICKLY, LET’ SEE A PRIMER ON TECHNOLOGICAL AND SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE. ENSUING:

“ ...By the end of the twentieth century, science had reached the end of an era, unlocking the secrets of the atom, unraveling the molecule of life, and creating the electronic computer. With these three fundamental discoveries, triggered by the quantum revolution, the DNA revolution, and the computer revolution, the basic laws of matter, life, and computation were, in the main, finally solved .... That epic phase of science is now drawing to a close; one era is ending and another is only beginning .... The next era of science promises to be an even deeper, more thoroughgoing, more penetrating one than the last .... Clearly, we are on the threshold of yet another revolution. HUMAN KNOWLEDGE IS DOUBLING EVERY TEN YEARS [AS PER THE 1998 STANDARDS]. In the past decade, more scientific knowledge has been created than in all of human history. COMPUTER POWER IS DOUBLING EVERY EIGHTEEN MONTHS. THE INTERNET IS DOUBLING EVERY YEAR. THE NUMBER OF DNA SEQUENCES WE CAN ANALYZE IS DOUBLING EVERY TWO YEARS. Almost daily, the headlines herald new advances in computers, telecommunications, biotechnology, and space exploration. In the wake of this technological upheaval, entire industries and lifestyles are being overturned, only to give rise to entirely new ones. But these rapid, bewildering changes are not just quantitative. They mark the birth pangs of a new era .... FROM NOW TO THE YEAR 2020, SCIENTISTS FORESEE AN EXPLOSION IN SCIENTIFIC ACTIVITY SUCH AS THE WORLD HAS NEVER SEEN BEFORE. IN TWO KEY TECHNOLOGIES, COMPUTER POWER AND THE DNA SEQUENCING, WE WILL SEE ENTIRE INDUSTRIES RISE AND FALL ON THE BASIS OF BREATHTAKING SCIENTIFIC ADVANCES. SINCE THE 1950S, THE POWER OF OUR COMPUTERS HAS ADVANCED BY A FACTOR OF ROUGHLY TEN BILLION. IN FACT, BECAUSE BOTH COMPUTER POWER AND DNA SEQUENCING DOUBLE ROUGHLY EVERY TWO YEARS, ONE CAN COMPUTE THE ROUGH TIME FRAME OVER WHICH MANY SCIENTIFIC BREAKTHROUGHS WILL TAKE PLACE .... BY 2020, MICROPROCESSORS WILL LIKELY BE AS A CHEAP AND PLENTIFUL AS SCRAP PAPER, SCATTERED BY THE MILLIONS INTO ENVIRONMENT, ALLOWING US TO PLACE INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS EVERYWHERE. THIS WILL CHANGE EVERYTHING AROUND US, INCLUDING THE NATURE OF COMMERCE, THE WEALTH OF NATIONS, AND THE WAY WE COMMUNICATE, WORK, PLAY, AND LIVE...”

AND

“…Humans have been adding to their total knowledge steadily over the centuries, and the amount of knowledge we create is multiplying at an incredible rate. Beginning with the amount of knowledge in the known world at the time of Christ, studies have estimated that the first doubling of that knowledge took place about 1700 A.D. The second doubling occurred around the year 1900. It is estimated today that the world's knowledge base will double again by 2010 and again after that by 2013...”

AND

“…[THERE IS A] DOUBLING EVERY TWO YEARS [REGARDING THE TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCEMENT OF] SOLAR ENERGY BY APPLYING NANOTECHNOLOGY TO SOLAR PANELS...”

AND

“...NANO-GENETIC SEQUENCING DATA … IS DOUBLING EVERY YEAR...”

AND

“...KNOWLEDGE IS DOUBLING BY EVERY FOURTEEN MONTHS...”

AND

“...MORE THAN THE DOUBLING OF COMPUTATIONAL POWER [IS TAKING PLACE] EVERY YEAR...”

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FUTURETRONIUM®,
The Revolution III!

By © Copyright 2011 Andres Agostini
- All Rights Reserved -

DRAFT Version 3.0 ? Sep/24/2011

(Forthcoming versions, as well as other resources, will be announced via www.twitter.com/Futuretronium ?Until indicated otherwise via www.twitter.com/Futuretronium , The Futuretronium Book will be an ongoing initiative and periodically upgraded, refined and extended.)

(This Proprietary Book may be reproduced for noncommercial purposes if it is copied in its entirety, including this notice. Please recall that “if it is copied in its entirety, including this notice.”)

DRAFT

#1 FUTURETRONIUM®, AND THE ADMINISTRATION AND APPLICATION OF THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD WITHOUT INNUENDOS AND IN CRESCENDO AS FLUID POINTS OF INFLECTIONS ASCERTAIN THAT THE MORROW IS A THING OF THE PAST.

#2 FUTURETRONIUM®, SUBSEQUENTLY, THERE IS NOW AND HERE AVAILABLE THE UNABRIDGED, AUTHORITATIVE ELICITATION AND ELUCIDATION OF ACTIONABLE KNOWLEDGE FROM AND FOR THE INCESSANTLY ARRHYTHMIC, ABRUPT, ANTAGONISTIC, MORDANT, CAUSTIC, AND ANARCHISTIC FUTURE, AS WELL AS THE CONTENTIOUS INTERRELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SUCH FUTURE AND THE PRESENT.

#3 FUTURETRONIUM®, A RADICAL YET RIGOROUS STRONG-SENSE AND CRITICO-CREATIVE «FUTURES THINKING», SYSTEMS APPROACH TO QUINTESSENTIAL UNDERSTANDING OF THE COMPLEXITIES, SUBTLETIES, AND INTRICACIES, AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITIES TO BE EXPLOITED OUT OF THE DRIVING FORCES INSTILLING AND INFLICTING PERPETUAL CHANGE INTO TWENTIETH-ONE CENTURY .

By (c) Copyright 2011 by Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved -

KEYWORDS: future studies, foresight research, risk management, scenario methodology, strong artificial intelligence, robotics, intelligence technology, nanotechnology, biotechnology, applied omniscience, driving forces, trends, forecasts, changed change, intelligence, caveat.

What doesn’t get understood in this age becomes a major liability. To this end Henry Kissinger’s quotation is timely. Ensuing: “…An ignored issue is an invitation to a problem...” [12]

Forget what you know and just believe in what you see and sense. It’s time for you to explore, conceive, develop, discover and institute your own Futures — exploiting the UPSIDES and DOWNSIDES of the surreptitiously covert and ignored ones — unless you will make yourself enslaved by circumstances beyond your control, regardless of your “powers.” Kindly please, if you’d like, make your choices wisely and by you and for yourself!

The undersigned is in no way attempting to be either a seer, or a soothsayer, diviner, foreteller, or prophet, who can foretell the future. In managing corporate and operational risks of many diverse natures, one needs not only to identify and recognize hazards but to anticipate, very early on (and preemptively so for Life), future and advanced disruption potential (as well as ignored benefits and opportunities), doing so in the tradition of rigorous futures studies coupled with a plethora of other disciplines.

What Do You Learn About The Future In The Present For?

Winston Churchill accordingly argues, “...The goal of forecasting is not to predict the future but to tell you what you need to know to take meaningful action in the present...” [207]

In the last analysis and very seriously stated, the view here offers a lucrative and a useful learning and a practical tool that requires from practitioners much better preparedness before systemic volatility, universal uncertainty and ubiquitous change and ambiguity. When and if officially committed with my client and/or customer, I will not unveil trends or tendency.

I will only unveil the inter-meshing, the intertwining and the inter-coalescing of the DRIVING FORCES that will shape and re-shape the future and the present / continuum (so-called) in the most unambiguous way. I will offer also the methodical steps to outsmart every downside and upside!

The objective is the understanding the complex and subtle nature and progression of many explosive driving forces that shape and re-shape the known and unknown world. Futurists speak, out of brief synthesis, about trends and tendencies and propensities of some of said driving forces. These driving forces are not only mega, diverse dynamos that output change but also challenges, opportunities and benefits for those who are prepared and paying incessantly great detailed attention.

These driving forces, incidentally, expel: (1) Open-ended changes, (2) Preemptive changes, and (3) “…All-out war-waging…” (that is, boundaryless) changes.

You manage risks to increase your benefits and opportunities and to augment the resiliency and adaptability of the sustainability of said benefits and opportunities. In Transformative and Integrative Risk Management, managing risks ? not to bring about illusions of meaning ? are nothing else than the optimum management of the upsides and downsides embedded in the driving forces.

Subsequently, the material addressed in this book ranges over many disciplines, as well as the work of many outstanding scientists.

Furthermore, present driving forces (science, technology, society, politics and economy) are churning insurmountable amounts of unprecedented change with increasing energy and scope.

Accordingly, the present material is communicated with marked emphasis indeed. Emphasis will be reiterated. The undersigned does not and will not dare to oversimplify and/or underestimate the consequences and sequels of these gargantuan driving forces.

Voices of Twentieth Century Reflecting On Forthcoming Future?

“... The ongoing changes in both the nature of work and the structure of employment foreshadow not just change but a seismic quake; a quantum shift in our very understanding of what it means to work, learn, and live .... THE AMERICAN ECONOMY —AND SOCIETY — ARE ABOUT TO EXPERIENCE A WAVE OF CHANGE THAT WILL CRASH UPON US WITH A FORCE WE HAVE NEVER KNOWN BEFORE. For higher education, this will mean dramatic changes in the requirements that graduates will be expected to meet, and in the makeup and needs of the postsecondary student population. It will also mean revolutionary innovations in the ways that colleges and universities deliver their services and how they organize themselves to develop products to meet new marketplace demands. Many who read this article will see this wave of change as frightening. But it does not have to be viewed that way .... In fact, for all the loss and risk our collective future portends, it also offers unparalleled opportunity. In a very real sense, for higher education, for America, and for humankind, the light at the end of the twentieth century is the limitless promise of the twenty-first century…” [198]

The quickening of scientific and technological innovation under an illustriously big-picture panorama as of 2002!

“...The gap between the recent past and the immediate future has never been so gaping, because the future now arrives at a rate and a magnitude like never before. By my estimate, the pace of technological innovation is accelerating arithmetically, and the number of meaningful new possibilities is expanding geometrically. Which says something about our most immediate future. Research into both pure and application-specific science, ranging from the most complex, such as genetic engineering, to the most exotic, such as nuclear fusion reactors, has reached a stage where no government or independent institute can measure it fiscally, or in terms of volume and yield. Not because of the enormous amount of capital invested, but as a consequence of its diverse and spontaneous nature, And since we cannot measure it, we do not know what will emerge .... In 1800, the state of the art was the stationary steam engine, the size of a house. It was only 90 years ago when Orville and Wilbur Wright's primitive wooden plane made its short, but mammoth, breakthrough glide. In the Middle Ages, both these contraptions would have been perceived as witchcraft. A mere 25 years ago the entire U.S. Strategic early warning system was based on the Q7 mainframe computer; it took an area the size of a football pitch to house it. Today we can store 10,000 times the computational power in an area of a postage stamp. And think of this: the first draft of the infamous human genome mapping project was completed on 26 June 2000. When first planned, the entire genetic map of human biology was set to be completed around 2020. The project came in 20 years before time .... To underline all of this, the great Buckminster Fuller once estimated that about 5,000 years ago a notable invention occurred every few hundred years or so. By A.D. 0 there was one every 50 or so years. By A.D. 1000 the time has shrunk to 30 years. With the advent of the industrial revolution it was down to a significant invention every six months; and 100 years later, down to only three months. By the middle of the twentieth century the time has shortened further, and a major breakthrough occurred at the rate of one per month. And today [2002], the rate of innovation is just too vast, and too fast, to measure with any meaningful accuracy .... Change quickening, and its slipstream is the first reason why we cannot predict even the most immediate future. The sheer speed and magnitude of change going on, drown out any possibility of getting a grip on what comes next, and what comes after what comes next .... The tempo of technological innovation depends also on the interconnection of ideas. In fact, this may be the root feed for the acceleration of change. As we have explored, ideas interconnect in nonlinear, acausal ways, giving up both novel and unexpected innovations. Science and technology in one field can bring about tremendous, sudden changes in other sciences or technology. What will we discover in molecular biology or synthetic chemistry, or discover in high-energy physics in the next 10 or 20 years? What will be the interconnected and enabling effects of biotechnology or nanotechnology over the next 25 or so years? Professor John Marie Lehn of the University of Strasbourg says that one area that is limitless is chemistry. It is not like physics, which behave within certain laws and is there to be discovered, chemistry is a creative process and only limited by the imagination. And when one considers the volume and speed of scientific and technological innovation going on today, the vast and increasing interconnection between minds and our ideas, it is not so unrealistic to speculate changes in the very way we live, to exceed anything we can now imagine. The fact is, change is not only accelerating, it is also can now imagine. The fact is, change is not only accelerating, it is also multidimensional. For every innovation, there is an unexpected string of related and unrelated events and outcomes impossible to predict until they arrive. The transistor enabled the microprocessor and software code, with this came leaps in productivity, empowering more creative work, giving more opportunities, expanding possibilities. Microcomputing brought with it new forms of communications and media, which further improved productivity, with new possibilities in leisure and entertainment, home automation and domestic appliances. None of this remarkable enterprise could have been assumed logically from the primeval conditions around the humble transistor. The nonlinearity of change sees that sooner, rather than later, events will diverge from all rational projections, and often in counterintuitive ways. So when we naturally ask what changes nanotechnology will evoke, or what artificial intelligence will bequeath, the inquiry is met with a cold retort: we cannot know in all its detail what will happen until events actually occur. As only history is frozen in time, so it is only history that is certain...” [201]

TO OFFER GREATER INSIGHT QUICKLY, LET’ SEE A PRIMER ON TECHNOLOGICAL AND SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE. ENSUING:

Dr. Michio Kaku, Ph.D. indicates: “.... By the end of the twentieth century, science had reached the end of an era, unlocking the secrets of the atom, unraveling the molecule of life, and creating the electronic computer. With these three fundamental discoveries, triggered by the quantum revolution, the DNA revolution, and the computer revolution, the basic laws of matter, life, and computation were, in the main, finally solved .... That epic phase of science is now drawing to a close; one era is ending and another is only beginning .... The next era of science promises to be an even deeper, more thoroughgoing, more penetrating one than the last .... Clearly, we are on the threshold of yet another revolution. HUMAN KNOWLEDGE IS DOUBLING EVERY TEN YEARS [AS PER THE 1998 STANDARDS]. In the past decade, more scientific knowledge has been created than in all of human history. COMPUTER POWER IS DOUBLING EVERY EIGHTEEN MONTHS. THE INTERNET IS DOUBLING EVERY YEAR. THE NUMBER OF DNA SEQUENCES WE CAN ANALYZE IS DOUBLING EVERY TWO YEARS. Almost daily, the headlines herald new advances in computers, telecommunications, biotechnology, and space exploration. In the wake of this technological upheaval, entire industries and lifestyles are being overturned, only to give rise to entirely new ones. But these rapid, bewildering changes are not just quantitative. They mark the birth pangs of a new era .... FROM NOW TO THE YEAR 2020, SCIENTISTS FORESEE AN EXPLOSION IN SCIENTIFIC ACTIVITY SUCH AS THE WORLD HAS NEVER SEEN BEFORE. IN TWO KEY TECHNOLOGIES, COMPUTER POWER AND THE DNA SEQUENCING, WE WILL SEE ENTIRE INDUSTRIES RISE AND FALL ON THE BASIS OF BREATHTAKING SCIENTIFIC ADVANCES. SINCE THE 1950S, THE POWER OF OUR COMPUTERS HAS ADVANCED BY A FACTOR OF ROUGHLY TEN BILLION. IN FACT, BECAUSE BOTH COMPUTER POWER AND DNA SEQUENCING DOUBLE ROUGHLY EVERY TWO YEARS, ONE CAN COMPUTE THE ROUGH TIME FRAME OVER WHICH MANY SCIENTIFIC BREAKTHROUGHS WILL TAKE PLACE .... BY 2020, MICROPROCESSORS WILL LIKELY BE AS A CHEAP AND PLENTIFUL AS SCRAP PAPER, SCATTERED BY THE MILLIONS INTO ENVIRONMENT, ALLOWING US TO PLACE INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS EVERYWHERE. THIS WILL CHANGE EVERYTHING AROUND US, INCLUDING THE NATURE OF COMMERCE, THE WEALTH OF NATIONS, AND THE WAY WE COMMUNICATE, WORK, PLAY, AND LIVE.” [171]

Nanotechnology and Life By Ray Kurzweil (as of May 2009)!

“ … Nanotechnologies are broad concept, it’s simply refers to technology where the key features in measuring the small number of nanometers. A NANOMETER IS THE DIAMETER OF FIVE CARBON ATOMS SO IT’S VERY CLOSE TO THE MOLECULAR LEVEL AND WE ALREADY HAVE NEW MATERIALS AND DEVICES THAT HAD BEEN MANUFACTURED AT THE NANOSCALE. IN FACT, CHIPS TODAY, THE KEY FEATURES ARE 50 OR 60 NANOMETERS SO THAT IS ALREADY NANOTECHNOLOGY. The true promise of nanotechnology is that ultimately we’ll be able to create devices that are manufactured at the molecular level by putting together, molecular fragments in new combinations so, I can send you an information file and a desktop nanofactory will assemble molecules according to the definition in the file and create a physical objects so I can e-mail you a pair of trousers or a module to build housing or a solar panel and WE’LL BE ABLE TO CREATE JUST ABOUT ANYTHING WE NEED IN THE PHYSICAL WORLD FROM INFORMATION FILES WITH VERY INEXPENSIVE INPUT MATERIALS. You can… I mean, just a few years ago if I wanted to send you a movie or a book or a recorded album, I would send you a FedEx package, now I can e-mail you an attachment and you can create a movie or a book from that. On the future, I’ll be able to e-mail you a blouse or a meal. So, that’s the promise of nanotechnology. Another promise is to be able to create devices that are size of blood cells and by the way biology is an example of nanotechnology, the key features of biology are at the molecular level. SO, THAT’S ACTUALLY THE EXISTENCE PROOF THAT NANOTECHNOLOGY IS FEASIBLE BUT BIOLOGY IS BASED ON LIMITED SIDE OF MATERIALS. EVERYTHING IS BUILT OUT OF PROTEINS AND THAT’S A LIMITED CLASS OF SUBSTANCES. WITH NANOTECHNOLOGY WE CAN CREATE THINGS THAT ARE FAR MORE DURABLE AND FAR MORE POWERFUL. One scientist designed a robotic red blood cell it’s a thousand times more powerful than the biological version so, if you were to replace a portion of your biological red blood cells with this respirocytes the robotic versions. You could do an Olympic sprint for 15 minutes without taking a breath or sit at the bottom of your pool for 4 hours. If I were to say someday you’ll have millions or even billions of these nanobots, nano-robots, blood cell size devices going through your body and keeping you healthy from inside, I might think well, that sounds awfully futuristic. I’d point out this already in 50 experiments in animals of doing exactly that with the first generation of nano engineered blood cell size devices. One scientist cured type 1 diabetes in rats with the blood cell size device. Seven nanometer pores let’s insulin out in the controlled fashion. At MIT, there’s a blood cell size device that can detect and destroy cancer cells in the bloodstream. These are early experiments but KEEP IN MIND THAT BECAUSE OF THE EXPONENTIAL PROGRESSION OF THIS TECHNOLOGY, THESE TECHNOLOGIES WILL BE A BILLION TIMES MORE POWERFUL IN 25 YEARS AND YOU GET SOME IDEA WHAT WILL BE FEASIBLE …” [199]

Humans Vs. Robots?

“…We may end up in a FUTURE where employment is high, but even the unemployed serve as managers of their own cadre of robot workers...” [192]

Bill Gates tells Scientific American about “…A Robot in Every Home: The leader of the PC revolution predicts that the next hot field will be robotics...” Ensuing:

“…Imagine being present at the birth of a new industry. It is an industry based on groundbreaking new technologies, wherein a handful of well-established corporations sell highly specialized devices for business use and a fast-growing number of start-up companies produce innovative toys, gadgets for hobbyist and other interesting niche products. But it is also a highly fragmented industry with few common standards or platforms. Projects are complex, progress is slow, and practical applications are relatively rare. In fact, for all the excitement and promise, no one can say with any certainty when ? or even if ? this industry will achieve critical mass. If it does, though, it may change the world ... Of course, that paragraph above could be a description of the computer industry during the mid-1970s, around the time that Paul Allen and I launched Microsoft. Back then, big, expensive mainframe computers ran the back-office operations for major companies, governmental departments and other institutions. Researchers at leading universities and industrial laboratories were creating the basic building blocks that would make the information age possible. Intel has just introduced the 8080 microprocessor, and Atari was selling the popular electronic game Pong. At home ground computer clubs, enthusiast to figure out exactly what this new technology was good for ... But what I really have in mind is something much more contemporary: the emergence of the robotic industry, which is developing in much the same way the computer business did 30 years ago. Think of the manufacturing robots currently used on automobile assembly lines as the equivalent of yesterday’s mainframes. The industry’s niche products include robotic arms that perform surgery, surveillance robots deployed in Iraq and Afghanistan that dispose of roadside bombs, and domestic robots vacuum the floor. Electronic companies have made robotic toys that can imitate people or dogs or dinosaurs, and hobbyists are anxious to get their hands on the latest version of the Lego robotic system ... Meanwhile some of the world’s best minds are trying to solve the toughest problems of robotics, such as visual recognition, navigation and machine learning. And they are succeeding. At the 2004 Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) Grand Challenge, a completion to produce the first robotic vehicle capable of navigating autonomously over a rugged 142-mile course though the Mojave Desert, the top competitor managed to travel just 7.4 miles before breaking down. In 2005, though, five vehicles covered the complete distance, and the race’s winner did it it at an average speed of 19.1 miles an hour. (In another intriguing parallel between the robotics and computer industries, DARPA also funded the work that led to the creation of Arpanet, the precursor to the Internet) ... What is more, the challenges facing the robotic industry are similar to those we tackled in computing three decades ago. Robotic companies have no standard operating software that could allow popular application programs to run in a variety of devices. The standardization of robotic processors and other hardware is limited, and very little of the programming code used in one machine can be applied to another. Whenever somebody wants to build a new robot, they usually have to start from square one ... Despite these difficulties, when I talk to people involved in robotics ? from university researchers to entrepreneurs, hobbyists and high school students ? the level of excitement and expectation reminds me so much of that time when Paul Allen and I looked at the convergence of new technologies and dreamed of the day when a computer would be on every desk and in every home. And as I look at the trends that are now starting to converge, I can envision a future in which robotic devices will become a nearly ubiquitous part of our day-to-day lives. I believe that technologies such as distributed computing voice and visual recognition, and wireless broadband connectivity will open the door to a new generation of autonomous devices that enable computers to perform tasks in the physical world on our behalf. We may be on the verge of a new era, when the PC will get up off the desktop and allow us to see, hear, touch and manipulate objects in places where we are not physically present ... The word ‘ROBOT’ was popularized in 1921 by Czech playwright Karel Capek, but people have envisioned creating robotlike devices for thousands of years. In Greek and Roman mythology, the gods of metalwork built mechanical servants made from gold. In the first century A.D., Heron of Alexandria ? the great engineer credited with inventing the first steam engine ? designed intriguing automatons, including one said to have the ability to talk. Leonardo da Vinci’s 1495 sketch of a mechanical knight, which could sit up and move its arms and legs, is considered to be the first plan for a humanoid robot ... Over the past century, anthropomorphic machines have become familiar figures in popular culture through books such as Isaac Asimov’s I, Robot, movies such as Star Wars and television shows such as Star Trek. The popularity of robots in fiction indicates that people are receptive to the idea that these machines will one day way among us as helpers and even as companions. Nevertheless, although robots play a vital role in industries such as automobile manufacturing ? where there is about one robot for every 10 workers ? the fact is that we have a long way to go before real robots catch up with their science-fiction counterparts ... One reason for this gap is that it has been much harder than expected to enable computers and robots to sense their surrounding environment and to react quickly and accurately. It has provoked difficult to give robots the capabilities that humans take for granted ? for example, the abilities to orient themselves with respect to the objects in room, to respond to sounds and interpret speech, and to grasp objects of varying size, textures and fragility. Even something as simple as telling the difference between an open door and a window can be devilishly tricky for a robot ... But researchers are starting to find the answers. One trend that has helped them is the increasing availability of tremendous amounts of computer power. One megahertz of processing power, which cost more than $7,000 in 1970, can now be purchased for just pennies. The access to cheap power has permitted scientists to work on many of the hard problems that are fundamental to making robots practical. Today, for example, voice-recognition programs can identify words quite well, but a far greater challenge will be building machines that can understand what those words mean in context. As computing capacity continues to expand, robot designers will have the processing power they need to tackle issues of ever greater complexity ... Another barrier to the development of robots has been the high cost of hardware, such as sensors that enable a robot to determine to an object as well as motors and servos that allow the robot to manipulate an object with both strength and delicacy. But prices are dropping fast. Laser range finders that are used in robotics to measure distance with precision cost about $10,000 a few years ago; today they can be purchased for about $2,000. And new, more accurate sensors based on ultrawideband radar are available for even less ... Now robot builders can also add Global Positioning System chips, video cameras, array microphones (which are better than conventional microphones at distinguishing a voice from a background noise) and a host of additional sensors for a reasonable expense. The resulting enhancement of capabilities, combined with expanded processing power and storage, allows today’s robots to do things such as vacuum a robot or help to defuse a roadside bomb ? tasks that would have been impossible for commercially produced machines just a few years ago ... In February 2004 I visited a number of leading universities, including Carnegie Mellon University, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Harvard University, Cornell University and the University of Illinois, to talk about the powerful role that computers can play in solving some of society’s most pressing problems. My goal was to help students understand how exciting and important computer science can be, and I hoped to encourage a few of them to think about careers in technology. At each university, after delivering my speech, I had the opportunity to get a firsthand look at some of the most interesting research projects in the school’s computer science department. Almost without exception, I was shown at least one project that involved robotics ... At that time, my colleagues at Microsoft were also hearing people in academia and at commercial robotics firms who wondered if our company was doing any work in robotics that might help them with their own development efforts. We were not, so we decided to take a closer look. I asked Tandy Trower, a member of my strategic staff and a 25-year Microsoft veteran, to go on an extended fact-finding mission and to speak with people across the robotics community. What he found was universal enthusiasm for the potential of robotics, along with an industry-wide desire for tools that would make development easier. ‘Many see the robotics industry at a technological turning point where a move to PC architecture makes more and more sense,’ Tandy wrote in his report to me after his fact-finding mission. ‘As Red Whitaker, leader of [Carnegie Mellon’s] entry in the DARPA Grand Challenge, recently indicated, the hardware capability is mostly there; now the issue is getting the software right.’ ... Back in the early days of the personal computers, we realized that we needed an ingredient that would allow all of the pioneering work to achieve critical mass, to coalesce into a real industry capable of producing truly useful products on a commercial scale. What was needed, it turned out, was Microsoft BASIC. When we created this programming language in the 1970s, we provided the common foundation that enabled programs developed for one set of hardware to run on another. BASIC also made computer programming much easier, which brought more and more people into the industry. Although a great many individuals made essential contributions to the development of the personal computer, Microsoft BASIC was one of the key catalysts for the software and hardware innovations that made the PC revolution possible ... After reading Tandy’s report, it seemed clear to me that before the robotics industry could make the same kind of quantum leap that the PC industry made 30 years ago, it, too, need to find that missing ingredient. So I asked him to assemble a small team that would work with people in the robotics field to create a set of programming tools that would provide the essential plumbing so that anybody interested in robots with even the most basic understanding of computer programming could easily write robotic applications that would work with different kinds of hardware. The goal was to see if it was possible to provide the same kind of common, low-level foundation for integrating hardware and software into robot designs that Microsoft BASIC provided for computer programmers ... Tandy’s robotics group has been able to drawn a number of advanced technologies developed by a team working under the direction of Craig Mundie, Microsoft’s chief research and strategy officer. One such technology will help solve one of the most difficult problems facing robot designers: how to simultaneously handle all the data coming in from multiple sensors and send the appropriate commands to the robot’s motors, a challenge known as concurrency. A conventional approach is to write a traditional, single-threaded program ? a long loop that first reads all the data from the sensors, then processes this input and finally delivers output that determines the robot’s behaviour, before starting the loop all over again. The shortcomings are obvious: if your robot has fresh sensor data indicating that the machine is at the edge of a precipice, but the program is still at the bottom of the loop calculating trajectory and telling the wheels to turn faster based on previous sensor input, there is a good chance the robot will fall down the stairs before it can process the new information ... Concurrency is a challenge that extends beyond robotics. Today as more and more applications are written for distributed networks of computers, programmers have struggled to figure out how to efficiently orchestrate code running on many servers at the same time. And as computers with a single processor are replaced by machines with multiple processors and ‘multicore’ processors ? integrated circuits with two or more processors joined together for enhanced performance ? software designers will need a new way to program desktop applications and operating systems. To fully exploit the power of processors working in parallel, the new software must deal with the problem of concurrency ... One approach to handling concurrency is to write multi-threaded programs that allow data to travel along many paths. But as any developer who has written multithreaded code can tell you, this is one of the hardest tasks in programming. The answer that Craig’s team has devised to the concurrency problem is something called the concurrency and coordination runtime (CCR). The CCR is a library of functions ? that makes it easy to write multithreaded applications that can coordinate a number of simultaneous activities. Designed to help programmers take advantage of the power of multicore and multiprocessor systems, the CCR turns out to be ideal for robotics as well. By drawing on this library to write their programs, robot designers can dramatically reduce the chances that one of their creations will run into a wall because its software is too busy sending output to its wheels to read input from its sensors ... In addition to tackling the problem of concurrency, the work that Craig’s team has done will also simplify the writing of distributed robotic applications through a technology called decentralized software services (DSS). DSS enables developers to create applications in which the services ? the parts of the program that read a sensor, say, or control a motor ? operate as separate processes that can be orchestrated in much the same way that text, images and information from several servers are aggregated on a Web page. Because DSS allow software components to run in isolation from one another, if an individual component of a robot fails, it can be shut down and restarted ? or even replaced ? without having to reboot the machine. Combine with broadband wireless technology, this architecture makes it easy to monitor and adjust a robot form a remote location using a Web browser ... What is more, a DSS application controlling a robotic device does not have to reside entirely on the robot itself bun can be distributed across more than one computer. As a result, the robot can be a relatively inexpensive device that delegates complex processing tasks to the high-performance hardware found on today’s home PCs. I believe this advance will pave the way for an entirely new class of robots that are essentially mobile, wireless peripheral devices that tap into the power of Mobile, wireless peripheral devices that tap into the power of desktop PCs to handle processing-intensive tasks such as visual recognition and navigation. And because these devices can be networked together, we can expect to see the emergence of groups of robots that can work in concert to achieve goals such as mapping the seafloor or planting crops ... These technologies are a key part of Microsoft Robotics Studio, a new software development kit built by Tandy’s team. Microsoft Robotics Studio also includes tools that make it easier to create robotic applications using a wide range of programming language. One example is a simulation tool that lets robots builders test their applications in a three-dimensional virtual environment before trying them out in the real world. Our goal for this release is to create an affordable, open platform that allows robot developers to readily integrate hardware and software into their designs ... How soon will robots become part of our day-to-day lives? According to the International Federation of Robotics, about two million personal robots were in use around the world in 2004, and another seven million will be installed by 2008. In South Korea the Ministry of Information and Communication hopes to put a robot in every home there by 2013. The Japanese Robot Association predicts that by 2025, the personal robot industry will be worth more than $50 billion a year worldwide, compared with about $5 billion today ... As with the PC industry in the 1970s, it is impossible to predict exactly what applications will drive this new industry. It seems quite likely, however, that robots will play an important role in providing physical assistance and even companionship for the elderly. Robotic devices will probably help people with disabilities get around and extend the strengths and endurance of soldiers, construction workers and medical professionals. Robots will maintain dangerous industrial machines, handle hazardous materials and monitor remote oil pipelines. They will enable health care workers to diagnose and treat patients who may be thousands of miles away, and they will be a central feature of security systems and search-and-rescue operations ... Althought a few of the robots of tomorrow may ressemble the anthropomorphic devices seen in Stars Wars, most likely look nothing like the humanoid C-3PO. In fact, as mobile peripheral devices become more and more common, it may be increasingly difficult to say exactly what a robot is. Because the new machines will be so specialized and ubiquitous ? and look so little like the two-legged automatons of science fiction ? we so little like the two-legged automatons of science-fiction ? we probably will not even call them robots. But as these devices become affordable to consumers, they could have just as profound an impact on the way we work, communicate, learn and entertain ourselves as the PC has had over the past 30 years …” [211]

How does innovation growth behave “today”?

Ray Kurzweil notes, “…Because of the explosive nature of exponential growth, the twenty-first century will be equivalent to twenty thousand years of progress at today’s rate of progress; about one thousand times greater than the 20th century...”

President John F. Kennedy’s speech ? on September 12, 1962 at Rice University ? indicates: “…Despite the striking fact that most of the scientists that the world has ever known are alive and working today, despite the fact that this Nation’s own scientific manpower is doubling every 12 years in a rate of growth more than three times that of our population as a whole, despite that, the vast stretches of the unknown and the unanswered and the unfinished still far outstrip our collective comprehension...” [80]

Sometimes, How is a scientific truth achieved through generations?

Max Planck (1858 – 1947) pointed out: “…A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die, and a new generation grows up that is familiar...” [187]

To further set the stage for this material, the textbook “...Einstein in the Boardroom...” by Suzanne S. Harrison and Patrick H. Sullivan Sr. may offer some lucid ideas on the “current” state of affairs when they claim:

“…Humans have been adding to their total knowledge steadily over the centuries, and the amount of knowledge we create is multiplying at an incredible rate. BEGINNING WITH THE AMOUNT OF KNOWLEDGE IN THE KNOWN WORLD AT THE TIME OF CHRIST, STUDIES HAVE ESTIMATED THAT THE FIRST DOUBLING OF THAT KNOWLEDGE TOOK PLACE ABOUT 1700 A.D. THE SECOND DOUBLING OCCURRED AROUND THE YEAR 1900. IT IS ESTIMATED TODAY THAT THE WORLD'S KNOWLEDGE BASE WILL DOUBLE AGAIN BY 2010 AND AGAIN AFTER THAT BY 2013...” [37]

Are we realizing that everything we do create knowledge, regardless of how we use it or not?

H.G. Wells (Herbert George Wells ? 21 September 1866 - 1946) observes: “… An immense and ever-increasing wealth of knowledge is scattered about the world today; knowledge that would probably suffice to solve all the mighty difficulties of our age but it is dispersed and unorganized. We need a sort of mental clearinghouse for the mind: a depot where knowledge and ideas are received, sorted, summarized, clarified and compared ...” [188]

There are many serious publications, from 2003 to this date, speaking of the entirety of scientific knowledge doubling every five (5) years and sooner. How, then, can one undertake such a gargantuan challenge, through the “Society of Knowledge” (that also embraces the “infotech economy”), unless it is through the stewardship of the most rigorous and advanced scientific method? [129]

Human knowledge capability will continue to double every year. “Human knowledge capability” is the quantity of available knowledge multiplied by the power of technology to process that knowledge. This capability will increase by two to the power of 100, the equivalent of a thousand billion billion, in the twenty-first century. — James Martin, “The 17 Great Challenges of the Twenty-First Century,” Jan-Feb 2007, p. 24 [The Futurist Magazine’s Top-10 Forecast for 2010]

Is there any technological breakthrough is green energy?

Ray Kurzweil: “…[THERE IS A] DOUBLING EVERY TWO YEARS [REGARDING THE TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCEMENT OF] SOLAR ENERGY BY APPLYING NANOTECHNOLOGY TO SOLAR PANELS…” [177]

Is genetics and genomic making landmark progression to solve complicated challenges?

Ray Kurzweil: “...NANO-GENETIC SEQUENCING DATA … IS DOUBLING EVERY YEAR...” [177]

What has become of novel knowledge content manufacturing as of now?

Ray Kurzweil: “…KNOWLEDGE IS DOUBLING BY EVERY FOURTEEN MONTHS...” [177]

Is Moore's Law beginning to run out of steam?

Ray Kurzweil: “…MORE THAN THE DOUBLING OF COMPUTATIONAL POWER [IS TAKING PLACE] EVERY YEAR...” [177]

The more the advancement, the less the jobs for biologicals?

“…Alvin Toffler wrote in Future Shock (1970), ‘…The work has been cut by 50 percent since the turn of the century. It is not out of the way to predict that it will be slashed in half again by 2000...’…” [192]

Subsequently, given the immense level of complexity progression and density, there is one axiom we will need to live by (that is, if we wish to be successful in prevailing) that indicates: “...The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of thinking we were at when we created them...” (By Albert Einstein) [153]

China mulls $1.5 trillion strategic industries boost? How far can China go to pervasively cutting-edge science and technology while the West, seemingly and allegedly, does not get its act together? What does a prominent news agency have to report on it?

Reuters (Dec 03, 2010): “…China is considering investments of up to $1.5 trillion over five years in seven strategic industries, sources said, a plan aimed at accelerating the country's transition from the world's supplier of cheap goods to a leading purveyor of high-value technologies .... Analysts expressed skepticism at the sheer amount of money ? it equates to about 5 percent of China's gross domestic product on an annual basis ? but said that the eye-popping headline figure was an indication of the government's determination to catalyze a structural shift in the economy .... THE TARGETED SECTORS INCLUDE ALTERNATIVE ENERGY, BIOTECHNOLOGY, NEW-GENERATION INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY, HIGH-END EQUIPMENT MANUFACTURING, ADVANCED MATERIALS, ALTERNATIVE-FUEL CARS AND ENERGY-SAVING AND ENVIRONMENTALLY FRIENDLY TECHNOLOGIES .... Beijing has said before that it wants to promote the sectors, a policy that it hopes will make the country less dependent on low-end, dirty manufacturing. The value-added output of the seven strategic industries together account for about 2 percent of GDP now. The government has said it wants them to generate 8 percent of GDP in 2015 and 15 percent by 2020...” [176]

N.B.: When concerned about career choices and jobs market, as well as selecting professional and investment choices, do keep in mind: “.... THE TARGETED SECTORS INCLUDE ALTERNATIVE ENERGY, BIOTECHNOLOGY, NEW-GENERATION INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY, HIGH-END EQUIPMENT MANUFACTURING, ADVANCED MATERIALS, ALTERNATIVE-FUEL CARS AND ENERGY-SAVING AND ENVIRONMENTALLY FRIENDLY TECHNOLOGIES.... ”

How does Futuretronium argue about the linkage between our thoughts, the Multiverse and the forthcoming advent of the Singularity?

“…Bart Simpson: ‘Dad, What is the mind? Is it just a system of impulses or something tangible? [Thinking better my question, Dad, Is the mind a projection of Computronium instilled into our brain? If so, Will my mind supersede above and beyond by the Strong Artificial Intelligence devices embedded in the transbiologicals’ and robots’ own quantum CPUs?]’…” [187]

Zillion impossible science facts turned into rampant realities today?

Dr. Michio Kaku, Ph.D. points out: “…As a physicist, I have learned that the ‘impossible’ is often a relative term .... IN MY OWN SHORT LIFETIME I HAVE SEEN THE SEEMINGLY IMPOSSIBLE BECOME ESTABLISHED SCIENTIFIC FACT OVER AND OVER AGAIN. So is it impossible to think we might one day be able to teleport ourselves from one place to another, or build a spaceship that will one day take us light-years to the stars? .... If we were to somehow encounter a civilization a million years more advanced than ours, would their everyday technology appear to be ‘magic’ to us? .... Just because something is ‘impossible’ today, will it remain impossible centuries or millions of years into the future? .... Given the remarkable advances in science in the past century, especially the creation of the quantum theory and general relativity, it is now possible to give rough estimates of when, if ever, some of these fantastic technologies may be realized. With the coming of even more advanced theories, such as string theory, even concepts bordering on science fiction, such as time travel and parallel universes, are now becoming re-evaluated by physicists. Think back 150 years to those technological advances that were declared ‘impossible’ by scientists at the time and that have now become part of our everyday lives. Jules Verne wrote a novel in 1863, Paris in the Twentieth Century, which was locked away and forgotten for over a century until it was accidentally discovered by his great-grandson and published for the first time in 1994. In it Verne predicted what Paris might look like in the year 1960. His novel was filled with technology that was clearly considered impossible in the nineteenth century, including fax machines, a world-wide communications network, glass skyscrapers, gas-powered automobiles, and high-speed elevated trains … Not surprisingly, Verne could make such stunningly accurate predictions because he was immersed in the world of science, picking the brains of scientists around him. A deep appreciation for the fundamentals of science allowed him to make such startling predictions .... IRONICALLY, THE SERIOUS STUDY OF THE IMPOSSIBLE HAS FREQUENTLY OPENED UP RICH AND ENTIRELY UNEXPECTED DOMAINS OF SCIENCE. For example, over the centuries the frustrating and futile search for a ‘perpetual motion machine’ led physicists to conclude that such a machine was impossible, forcing them to postulate the conservation of energy and the three laws of thermodynamics. Thus the futile search to build perpetual motion machines helped to open up the entirely new field of thermodynamics, which in part laid the foundation of the steam engine, the machine age, and modern industrial society .... We ignore the impossible at our peril. In the 1920s and 1930s Robert Goddard, the founder of modern rocketry, was the subject of intense criticism by those who thought that rockets could never travel in outer space. They sarcastically called his pursuit Goddard’s Folly. In 1921 the editors of the New York Times railed against Dr. Goddard’s work: ‘…Professor Goddard does not know the relation between action and reaction and the need to have something better than a vacuum against which to react. He seems to lack the basic knowledge ladled out daily in high schools...’ Rockets were impossible, the editors huffed, because there was no air to push against in outer space. Sadly, one head of state did understand the implications of Goddard’s ‘impossible’ rockets ? Adolph Hitler. During World War II, Germany’s barrage of impossibly advanced V-2 rockets rained death and destruction on London, almost bringing it to its knees .... Time and again we see that the study of the impossible has opened up entirely new vistas, pushing the boundaries of physics and chemistry and forcing scientists to redefine what they mean by ‘impossible.’ As Sir William Osler once said, ‘THE PHILOSOPHIES OF ONE AGE HAVE BECOME THE ABSURDITIES OF THE NEXT, AND THE FOOLISHNESS OF YESTERDAY HAS BECOME THE WISDOM OF TOMORROW.’ .... Many physicists subscribe to the famous dictum of T. H. White, who wrote in The Once and Future King, ‘Anything that is not forbidden, is mandatory!’ In physics we find evidence of this all the time .... For example, cosmologist Stephen Hawking tried to prove that time travel was impossible by finding a new law of physics that would forbid it, which he called the ‘chronology protection conjecture.’ Unfortunately, after many years of hard work he was unable to prove this principle. In fact, to the contrary, physicists have now demonstrated that a law that prevents time travel is beyond our present-day mathematics. Today, because there is no law of physics preventing the existence of time machines, physicists have had to take their possibility very seriously .... Already one ‘impossible’ technology is now proving to be possible: the notion of teleportation (at least at the level of atoms). Even a few years ago physicists would have said that sending or beaming an object from one point to another violated the laws of quantum physics. The writers of the original Star Trek television series, in fact, were so stung by the criticism from physicists that they added ‘Heisenberg compensators’ to explain teleporters in order to address this flaw. Today, because of a recent breakthrough, physicists can teleport atoms across a room or photons under the Danube River...” [174] To read more on this citation, go to Amazon at http://amzn.to/dHGkOW

Fruitfully planting towards which tense?

“...The heritage of the past is the seed that brings forth the harvest of the future...” ? Inscription from statuary pedestal at National Archives in Washington

Many forces are not predictable but some others are predictable based on applied omniscience!

Yogi Berra: “...Prediction is very hard, especially when it's about the future...” [171]

In dealing with hard science, incidentally, is not right that less is more in the following lapidary axiom by Albert Einstein!

"…The grand aim of all science is to cover the greatest number of empirical facts by logical deduction from the smallest number of hypotheses or axioms..." [208]

Who creates the future and who doesn’t?

Michael Anissimov: “...One of the biggest flaws in the common conception of the future is that the future is something that happens to us, not something we create...” [142]

What are the ruthless drivers?

Harold Varmus, NIH Director: “...There are three great themes in science in the twentieth century ? the atom, the computer, and the gene...” [171]

Interacting with the future?

Rainer Maria Rilke: “...The future enters into us in order to transform itself in us long before it happens...” [142]

I can offer this perspective as of now (the wonderful continuum) and under my human and humane perspective. I do like a great deal science and technology, but only to the truest service of the global civilization. Given the ubiquitous dynamics shifting through tsunamis, these days I find the term “continuum” beyond ineffectual and mostly ludicrous.

Nonetheless, if you want to “reality-check” these reflections, you will be able, soonest, to have every detailed explanation by, say, an omniscient robot hovering “midair” if you indefinitely postpone your homework and fail to do your own independent research, done for and by you (as of now).

What to consider about gauging the future?

Wired (1994): “...The future belongs to neither the conduit or content players, but those who control the filtering, searching and sense-making tools we will rely on to navigate through the expansion of cyberspace...” [145]

Horses, dogs and robotic dominance of all?

Samuel Butler (1863 letter): “...Who will be man’s successor? To which the answer is: We are ourselves creating our own successors. Man will become to the machine what the horse and the dog are to man; the conclusion being that machines are, or are becoming, animate...” [142]

Go to any “snail paced” newspapers (online or old-fashioned “offline”) in a developing country and this you’ll find within the daily headlines: Fiction immensely superseded — through many orders of magnitudes (that is, by hyper-geometrical exponential rates) — by realities, that is: the most incontrovertible and yet the most dramatic realities.

People kind of see a part of the waves, but are famously infamously unaware that most pervasive currents underneath are the true dynamos of these swirling changed changes.

Brainy ones hyper-accelerating industries and beyond?

Juan Enriquez: “...Meanwhile, lone individuals are birthing not just companies but entire industries that rapidly become bigger than the economies of most countries. But unlike growth industries of the past … cars and aerospace, for example … the industries that will dominate our future depend on just a few smart minds … Not a lot of manpower … So during a period of prosperity and economic growth … Wealth is ever more mobile and concentrated...” [163]

What is the current rate of change? What is the as-of-now rate of technological and scientific knowledge doubling?

Mark Miller, computer scientist: “...You know, things are going to be really different … No, no, I mean really different...” [142]

What are we morphing into?

Sir Arthur C. Clarke: “...It’s also a tour de force of photography: the images reveal a whole new order of creation about to come into existence. No one who has any interest in the future can afford it...” [164]

The outcomes stemming of the intermixing of the exuberant technologies?

Juan Enriquez: “...You and your children are about to face a series of unprecedented moral, ethical, economic, and financial issues. The choices you make [as well as those you’re failing to make because of lack of detailed, advanced and deep awareness] will impact where you live, what you earn, what your grandchildren will look like, how long you live. It all starts because we are mixing apples, oranges, and floppy disks...” [163]

What is it meant by “Future”? When speaking about “FUTURE” as the undersigned is speaking about change, there is included positive change and negative change (as well as the grave tradeoffs between [a] positive change, and [b] negative change). However, the emphasis is to underpin the upside changes and to cripple the downside changes.

The undersigned will also be reflecting about some of the consequences and possibilities by said changes and tradeoffs.

Is the future for those into practicable nuanced discernment now?

“…The future belongs to neither the conduit or content players, but those who control the filtering, searching and sense-making tools we will rely on to navigate through the expanses of cyberspace …” [198]

From perennially upgraded knowledge into decisive, ruling empires?

Juan Enriquez: “...The knowledge revolution is taking place in small, sharply defined areas. One company generates more U.S. patents than 139 countries do together … This [revolution] generates new EMPIRES and new ghettos .... It slams into existing systems and destroys them while creating new systems. Countries and individuals can either surf new and powerful waves of change ? or try to stop them and get crushed...” [163]

Shocking times equate to shocking futures?

Jose Ortega y Gasset: “...Life is a series of collisions with the future; it is not the sum of what we have been, but what we yearn to be...” [149]

Why everything changes, beginning with change itself?

Nicola Tesla, 1896, Inventor of Alternative Current: “...I do not think there is any thrill that can go through the human heart like that felt by the inventor as he sees some creation of the brain unfolding to success...” [142]

Which one is the future of computing and science while the so-called present is undergoing mazes at the rhythm of increasing hypes?

Ray Kurzweil: “...[IN THE NEAR FUTURE] COMPUTERS [WILL BE] DOING HARD SCIENCE…” [177]

Is the new paradigm changing to so many paradigms simultaneously resulting impossibles to figure out any paradigm correctly?

Juan Enriquez: “...Many people, even some of the heads of megacorporations, feel that the world is moving too fast as companies, even industries, disappear...” [163]

What are the brain’s priorities beyond seizing life-support capabilities for its own sustainability?

Michael Polanyi: “...The mind is attracted by beautiful [and advanced] problems, promising beautiful [and useful solutions]...” [160]

Was the creation of the world explosive? How expansive does an on-going explosion become?

“… The world is seeing a Cambrian explosion of media usage …” [198]

What has become of fate and destiny in times that neuroscience researchers are coming out with some PRELIMINARY outcomes that seem to suggest: “…The present is a function of the future…”?

Robert Theobald: “...Our future is determined by the actions of all of us alive today. Our choices determine our destiny...” [160] Commentary: Some researchers in speaking of some very preliminary yet indicative findings ask: «...Is the present a function of the future?...»

Which destiny is that?

William Jennings Bryan: “...Destiny is not a matter of chance ? it is a matter of choice. It is not a thing to be waited for ? it is a thing to be achieved...” [174]

What are the cosmological traits of this over-fragmented “society”? Certainly!

David Brin: “...What distinguishes society today is not only the pace of events, but also the nature of the tool kit for facing the future...” [160]

What are the origins of the future?

“...Do not presume that past success indicates future impregnability...” [154]

While at digital worlds, Could one refer to Paradise as Computronium?

“…We all go from anticipation to anticipation. In cyberspace there always is room over the next ridge to build a new perspective of heaven …” [198]

There is here a point of view about change (as change is partly explored here):

Adam Gordon: “...We have seen eye-popping developments across society, technology, institutions, and products and services in the last generation; this will surely continue into the future .... if we decide today to launch a product, buy a house, study for a degree, build a new light rail system, or take any similar decision of significance, the environment of tomorrow will be a key factor in the success or failure of that decision .... Our decisions are only as good as the view of the future they rest on [profound understanding of all of the driving forces shaping and re-shaping the environment]. All opportunities and successes and profits are realized in the future. All threats, failures, and losses are realized in the future .... Either way, the earlier and clearer we see future circumstances, the better we will be able to benefit by changing our current recipes for success to keep up with the changes in the world. The better managers’ view of the future, the better their decisions will turn out to be ...” [102]

How does change and future interrelate?

Alvin Toffler: “...Change is the process by which the future invades our lives...” [147]

Does the pursuit of progress beget ubiquitous robots?

“…We are hanging ears, ears and sensory organs on our computers and on our networks asking them to observe the physical world on our behalf and to manipulate it. The more you connect computers to the physical world the more the issue of interaction becomes important …” [198]

What can we do about the future if we have failed to do the proper and sensible things with the past and present?

“… That it is possible for us to anticipate actions, to predict the future, and, by looking for ways to change incentives, to engineer the future across a stunning range of considerations .... one of particular import is that the future ? or at least its anticipation ? can cause the past, perhaps even more often than the past causes the future .... must we change our base thinking to work out any variety of predictions and, especially, to change the future?...” [183]

How do we calculate the future?

“…In summary, the future is a phenomenon that will be completely real someday even though it does not exist today .... Even if the future is approximately equal to today, it will also differ dramatically from today in many particular ways...” [184]

What is static? Say what?

The undersigned and the present material’s author indicated: ? “Change is not constant ?so-called?, but incessantly impermanent in ever-exponential, disruptive and discontinuous ways and by unpronounceable orders of magnitudes.” [129]

We have gone ubiquitously digital and genetic and the consequences are unpronounceable even in orders of magnitude?

Juan Enriquez: “…Digital code is what drives rapid speed growth today. It allows mergers like AOL Time Warner … It drives the Internet, TV, music, finance, IT, news coverage, research, manufacturing. A few countries and companies understood the change. That is how poor countries like Finland, Singapore, and Taiwan got so wealthy … So quickly … But a lot of folks just did not learn to read and write a new language … And even though they produced more and more goods, particularly commodities … And even though they restructured companies and governments … Cut budgets, raised taxes, built large factories and buildings … They got a lot poorer. (In 1938 the richest country per person in Asia was … the Philippines. In 1954, according to the World Bank, the most promising Asian economy was … Burma. Both remain commodity economies … Both are sidelined from the digital revolution … And you probably would not like to live in either country). Your world changed when you went ‘On Line.’ One day you used a fax or e-mail … And it soon became hard to conceive of living with only snail mail. If you understood this change early … And invested or worked in some of the companies driving the digital revolution … You are probably quite well off … (as a country and/or as an individual). If you came late, as a speculator, without understanding what a digital language does, or does not do … You probably lost a lot of money during the year 2000. Your world … and your language … are about to change again. The two nucleotide base pairs that code all life …A-T, C-G … Have already led some of the world’s largest companies … Monsanto … DuPont … Novartis … IBM … Hoeschst … Compaq … GlaxoSmithKline … To declare that their future lies in life science. They have abandoned, sold, spun off core business divisions … And launched themselves into selling completely new products … Which is why so many chemical, seed, cosmetic, food, pharmaceutical companies … Are partnering, Merging, Growing. Some life-science companies will crash spectacularly … Others will get larger than Microsoft and Cisco … (Companies that are already larger than the economies of most of the world’s countries.). The world’s mega-mergers are going to be driven by digital and genetic code. Consider what is about to happen to medicine. You currently spend about nine times as much for doctors and medical interventions … As you do on medicines and prevention. In the measure that we understand how viruses, bacteria, and our bodies are programmed … And how they can be reprogrammed … Treatment will shift from emergency interventions … Toward deliberate and personalized prevention … (Just as dentistry did.). And we may end up spending just as much on pharmaceuticals as we do on doctors. These medicines do not have to be pills or injections … They could be a part of the food you eat every day, your soap or cosmetics … Perhaps you will inhale them or simply put various patches on your skin. (This is why Procter & Gamble is thinking of merging with a pharmaceutical company, why L’Oréal is hiring molecular biologists, and why Campbell’s is selling soups designed for hospital patients with specific diseases.)…” [163]

Connect everything to everything else to further improve and expand automation?

“…When they really touch our lives, information systems cease to be information systems. They are media…” [198]

We can delay limits forever, Can’t we?

“…In every science and therefore in all the technologies under, there are great limits. The problem or the solution or the challenges, however ? and depending on the cosmology of each person (ergo: the fragmented, over-Balkanized society as a whole) ? is that these boundaries are being circumnavigated or avoided rampantly, almost to the extent as if they were nonexistent. The circumnavigation rate and / or evasion of the progression of these scientific and technological limits at a geometrically exponential explosively. And besides so, the rate of acceleration of the progression is becoming more and faster by ever-increasing orders of magnitudes. Accordingly, public-office leaders, statesmen and politicians ? so-called ? have gravely underestimated and even misunderstood these gargantuan profound forces. In the midst of this process, these infamous 'leaders' have committed the existence of the entire planet Earth...” [129]

Can we exercise our brains to solve complex problems embedded in the future for the sake of the current present?

Dr. Marshall McLuhan, Ph.D. (1962): “…Our world tomorrow will be utterly different, in ways we cannot even conceive...” [175]

What hijacks what?

Dr. Stephen Covey: “…Again, yesterday holds tomorrow hostage .... Memory is past. It is finite. Vision is future. It is infinite. Vision is greater than history…” [153]

The consequences of a world going from round to flat?

Thomas Friedman: “…The flattening of the world is going to be hugely disruptive to both traditional and developed societies. The weak will fall further behind faster. The traditional will feel the force of modernization much more profoundly. The new will get turned into old quicker. The developed will be challenged by the underdeveloped much more profoundly. I worry, because so much political stability is built on economic stability, and economic stability is not going to be a feature of the flat world. Add it all up and you can see that the disruptions and going to come faster and harder. No one is immune ? not me, not you, not Microsoft. WE ARE ENTERING AN ERA OF CREATIVE DESTRUCTION ON STEROIDS. Dealing with flatism is going to be a challenge of a whole new dimension even if your country has a strategy. But if you don’t have a strategy at all, well, again, you’ve warned…” [139]

Why this changed change is unprecedented and different? San Francisco futurist James Canton offers insight.

“...CIO Insight: In The Extreme Future, you say the 21st century is going to be lightning-fast, complex and driven by disruptive changes. But aren't we already in this extreme future? [RESPONDING THE QUESTION,] JAMES CANTON [INDICATES]: WE ARE TO A CERTAIN EXTENT. BUT THE POINT OF MY BOOK IS THAT THINGS ARE GOING TO GET EVEN MORE DISRUPTIVE, COMPLEX AND COMPETITIVE; THINGS ARE NOT GOING TO EASE OFF, THEY'RE ACTUALLY GOING TO ACCELERATE...” [138]

What are the organic properties of change and its impact?

David Schlesinger, global managing director at Reuters, indicates: “…Change is hard. Change is hardest on those caught by surprise. Change is hardest on those who have difficulty changing too. But change is natural; change is not new; change is important...” [139]

The universe and the morrow?

Isaac Asimov: “…Humanity has the stars in its future, and that future is too important to be lost under the burden of juvenile folly and ignorant superstition...” [141]

Understanding the universe as we don’t think it is and as many people cannot align it with their belief system?

Dr. Carl Sagan, Ph.D. : “…It is far better to grasp the universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring...” [157]

Whose realities and myths are those?

Voltaire (1694 – 1778), French writer and philosopher: “…Everything’s fine today, that is our illusion...” [157]

Is anyone exaggerating about the dynamics of change?

Ian Pearson: “…By mid-century, computers will be linked directly into our nervous systems via nanotechnology, which is so small it could connect every neuron in our brains. By about 2040, there will be a backup of our brains in a computer somewhere, so that when you die it won’t be a major career problem...” [140]

Question: Allegedly, To what extent is the world changing and what are some of the consequences, sometimes infamously ignored?

Dr. Stephen Covey: “…The world has profoundly changed … The challenges and complexity we face in our personal lives and relationships, in our families, in our professional lives, and in our organizations are of a different order of magnitude. In fact, many mark 1989 ? the year we witnessed the fall of the Berlin Wall ? as the beginning of the Information Age, the birth of a new reality, a sea change of incredible significance ? truly a new era ? Being effective as individuals and organizations is no longer merely an option ? survival in today’s world requires it. But in order to thrive, innovate, excel, and lead in what Covey calls the new Knowledge Worker Age, we must build on and move beyond effectiveness [long-held assumptions, fallacies and flawed beliefs and faulty conventions]…Accessing the higher levels of human genius and motivation in today’s new reality REQUIRES A SEA CHANGE IN THINKING: a new mind-set, a new skill-set, a new tool-set ? in short, a whole new habit...” [153]

Bringing down a handful of millenarian fallacies in the twentieth-one century?

Gregory S. Paul and Earl Cox: “…From Conventional Wisdom to Shocking Probability. Maybe someday, sooner or later, truly intelligent machines will be built. Until that time, speculation will abound. Much of that speculation is based on what might be called ‘Conventional Wisdom,’ the underlying assumptions and conventions we collectively share. We can list some of these assumptions as follows: The next century will be an extension of this one, with increasingly smarter machines being run by people and for people … Because the human mind is linked to a soul, cybernetic machines will never be fully self-aware like we are … If intelligent robots can be built, it will be a long time before they can be made to do what humans do, as well as humans do it. Perhaps centuries will be required … Even after intelligent robots are made, multitudes of humans will continue to exist on earth, and maybe even in space … Human minds and personal identities will never be able to merge with an electromechanical system … Even if it were possible, we humans would refuse to download our minds onto hardware, no matter how tempting and intelligent the new surroundings might be. We believe that cyberbeings will be emotionless, soulless, and humorless mechanical zombies ? rather like ‘Star Trek’s’ Lt. Commander Data, a somewhat sad android pining for a humanity he will never achieve … No matter how smart they are, digital minds will never have the insight, intuition, and smooth savvy of the human mind. They will forever remain mentally inferior, and our faithful, self- maintaining servants … The robots will soon prove our mental and physical superiors. Self-generated enhancements will refine them beyond our control. They will enslave us all except, of course, for a renegade band of rebellious, young, good-looking, daring humans armed with battered, recycled surplus weapons, fearlessly following their craggy but wise leader into a fight for truth, justice, and the hominid way … THIS BOOK ARGUES THAT THE NEXT CENTURY WILL PROVE TO BE NOTHING LIKE THIS ONE, NOR ANY FORECAST SO FAR. COMPUTING POWER, NEUROSCIENCE, AND NANOTECHNOLOGIES ARE ADVANCING SO RAPIDLY THAT THEY WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT EVOLUTIONARY DEVELOPMENTS SINCE THE ORIGIN OF LIFE ITSELF … WE MAINTAIN THAT THE HUMAN MIND AND CONSCIOUS THOUGHT ARE EXCLUSIVELY NATURAL AND PHYSICAL IN ORIGIN AND NATURE. ULTIMATELY, THEIR NATURES AND FUNDAMENTAL PROCESSES ARE KNOWABLE AND CAN BE REPLICATED FOR THE PURPOSES OF PERSONAL IMMORTALITY...” [169]

Pervasive genetics, pervasive medicine, pervasive diagnostics and pervasive monitoring?

Juan Enriquez: “…If it seems like your world has been topsy-turvy over the past few years … Consider what’s coming. Your genetic code will be imprinted on and ID card … For better and worse. Medicines will be tailored to your genes and will help prevent specific diseases for which you may be at risk. (But … your insurance company and your prospective employer may also find out that you are genetically disposed to, say, heart disease, or breast cancer, or Alzheimer’s.)...” [163]

Whatever the lethal consequences, Are you still doggedly insisting on not understanding the rates of hyper-geometrical exponential growth and hence not have a sense of proportions in alignment with the driving forces of the twentieth-one century?

James John Bell argues, “…We won’t just experience 100 years of progress in the twenty-first century ? it will be more like 20,000 years of progress...” [161]

How can we get to a new terra incognita with an old map?

Rowan Gibson: “…The lesson of the last three decades is that nobody can drive to the future on cruise control...” [161]

Where and how do we live?

Gregory S. Paul and Earl Cox: “…We live in strange times, in case you have not noticed. Here we are with our home computers and other high-tech appliances, living what we regard as a normal life … The world we are living in ? a world that couples Homo sapiens with fast-paced hypertechnology ? is strange to us because sometimes it feels like what it is, a transient dream .... We are dreaming a strange, waking dream; an inevitably brief interlude sandwiched between the long age of low-tech humanity on the one hand, and the age of human beings transcended on the other. We are living in the latter days of humanity; cybertechnologies will quickly replace us. Just inches of time away exists a speedy reality bearing down on us that we may sense, but do not show on our faces .... While one may be made uncomfortable by the thought of a truly strange 21st century, there is around us an impending sense of arrival ? a strangeness in the air, an uneasiness, a feeling that deep down, things are starting to change in swift, fundamental ways too fuzzy to put a finger on. More than just the onset of the third millennium, it is the quiet before the storm. The products of technology are becoming more curious ? a little too smart, a little too fast. It’s downright unsettling. And, hey, people aren’t dumb. They know that we have just begun to build smart dumb machines; soon it will be dumb smart machines. Where will it stop? If we continue to build machines smarter than the last ones, and then one that is smarter than that and so on ? well, you do not have to be a particle physicist to see that the machines cannot keep getting smarter and smarter, yet forever remain dumber than us. Garry ‘John Henry’ Kasparov, chess Grand Master, lost a championship game to a machine for the first time in history this year. Perhaps someday, we’ll hear the battle cry of humanity rallying in desperation: ‘Remember Deep Blue’…” [165]

Technologies, societies and possibilities?

Freeman Dyson: “…There is nothing so big nor so crazy that one out of a million technological societies may not feel itself driven to do, provided it is physically possible...” [174]

Does the progressive and always-sudden (explosively so) advent of the future bring about adversaries of such future? If so, Are those the same ones that like to stay in rooms of stalemate air in which the status quo is invariably for the own sake and enjoyment of said those perpetually?

Virginia Postrel: “…That instability [between stasis and dynamism], or our awareness of it, heightened by the fluidity of contemporary life: by the ease with which ideas and messages, goods and people, cross borders; by technologies that seek to surpass the quickness of the human mind and overcome the constraints of the human body; by the ‘universal solvents’ of commerce and popular culture; by the dissolution or reformation of established institutions, particularly large corporations, and the rise of new ones; by the synthesis of East and West, of ancient and modern ? by the combination and recombination of seemingly every artifact of human culture. Ours is a magnificently creative era. But the creativity produces change, and that change attracts enemies, philosophical as well as self-interested… With some exceptions, the enemies of the future aim their attacks not at creativity itself but at the dynamic processes through which it is carried. In our post ? Cold War era, for instance, free markets are recognized as powerful forces for social cultural, and technological change ? liberating in the eyes of some, threatening to others. The same is true for markets in ideas: for free speech and worldwide communication; for what John Stuart Mill called ‘experiments in living’; for scientific research, artistic expression, and technological innovation. All of these processes are shaping an unknown, and unknowable, future. Some people look at such diverse, decentralized, choice-driven systems and rejoice, even when they don’t like particular choices. Other recoil. In pursuit of stability and control, they seek to eliminate or curb these unruly, too-creative forces … Stasists and dynamists are thus divided not just by simple, short-term policy issues but by fundamental disagreements about the way the world works. They clash over the nature of progress and over its desirability: Does it require a plan to reach a specified goal? Or is it an unbounded process of exploration and discovery? Does the quest for improvement express destructive, nihilistic discontent, or the highest human qualities? Does progress depend on puritanical repression or a playful spirit? … Stasists and dynamists disagree about the limits and use of knowledge. Stasists demand that knowledge be articulated and easily shared. Dynamists, by contrast, appreciate dispersed, often tacit knowledge. They recognize the limits of human minds even as they celebrate learning … Those conflicts lead to very different beliefs about good institutions and rules: Stasists seek specifics to govern each new situation and keep things under control. Dynamicists want to limit universal rulemaking to broadly applicable and rarely changed principles, within which people can create and test countless combinations. Stasists want their detailed ruled to apply to everyone; dynamists prefer competing, nested rule sets … Such disagreements have political ramifications that go much deeper than the short-term business of campaigns and legislation. They affect our governing assumptions about how political, economic, social, intellectual, and cultural systems work; what those systems should value; and what they mean .... These are not the comfortable old Cold War divisions of hawks and doves, egalitarians and individualists, left and right. Nor are they the one-dimensional labels of technophile and technophobe, optimist and pessimist, or libertarian and stasist that pundits sometimes grab to replace the old categories. They contain elements of those simpler classifications, but they are much richer, encompassing more aspects of life ? more aspects of the emergent, complex future...” [170]

Minds vs. computational algorithms, man-made computational algorithms?

“…Funny thing, our mind. The moment our software catches up, the mind seems to travel beyond the capability of the software .... [However,] Our minds focus on renditions, darling, not the underlying algorithm. Your analysts and programmers have to deal with algorithm that produces new renditions...” [161]

Dr. Covey’s lucid perspective becomes greatly supported and refined by Peter Drucker.

Peter Drucker: “…In a few hundred years, when the story of our [current] time is written from a long-term perspective, it is likely that the most important event those historians will see is not technology, not the Internet, not e-commerce [not ‘social media’ ? so-called]. IT IS AN UNPRECEDENTED CHANGE IN THE HUMAN CONDITION. FOR THE FIRST TIME ? LITERALLY ? SUBSTANTIAL AND GROWING NUMBERS OF PEOPLE HAVE CHOICES. FOR THE FIRST TIME, THEY WILL HAVE TO MANAGE THEMSELVES. AND SOCIETY IS TOTALLY UNPREPARED FOR IT...” [153]

And the political angle of the future?

The Honorable Tom Ridge, First Secretary of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security and Former Governor of Pennsylvania:

“…The political world promises change and the digital world delivers it. And when that change potentially affects our privacy and freedom, we should all pay attention. This is a fascinating, provocative and thoroughly readable look into an uncertain future…” [155]

Internet and yesterday?

Scout Bradner: “…We have the Internet that we have today because the Internet of yesterday did not focus on the today of yesterday…” [155]

The rights and the future?

“…Legal scholars can debate whether copyright law mandates a future of ‘authorized use only’ for digital information. The answer may not matter much, because that future is coming to pass through the technologies of digital rights management and trusted systems…” [155]

Future and forces embedded?

“…The forces shaping your future are digital, and you need to understand them…” [155]

Can we picture the future?

“…Can we envision the future transcontinental flights, where books, music, images, and videos are automatically extracted, sampled, mixed, and remixed; fed into massive automated reasoning engines; assimilated into the core software of every personal computer and every cell phone ? and thousands of other things for which the words don’t even exist yet?...” [155]

History vs. future?

“…Will the vast amounts of information now available because of the advances in storage and communication technology actually be usable a hundred or a thousand years in the future, or WILL THE SHIFT FROM PAPER TO DIGITAL MEDIA MEAN THE LOSS OF HISTORY?...” [155]

Regarding the Cyberspace, a primer to Computronium?

John Perry Barlow: “…Governments of the Industrial World, your weary giants of flesh and steel, I come from Cyberspace, the new home of Mind. On behalf of the future, I ask you of the past to leave us alone. You have no so sovereignty where we gather .... We are creating a world that all may enter without privilege or prejudice accorded by race, economic power, military force, or station of birth. We are creating a world where anyone, anywhere may express his or her beliefs, no matter how singular, without fear of being coerced into silence or conformity … In our world, all the sentiments and expressions of humanity, from debasing to the angelic, are parts of a seamless whole, the global conversation of bits .... [Y]ou are trying to ward off the virus of liberty by erecting guard posts at the frontiers of Cyberspace...” [155]

Can we use a chain to represent a metaphor about the future?

“…You can’t understand the knot without understanding the strands, but in the future, the strands need not remain tied up in the same way as they are today…” [155]

To get engaged in “a sea change in thinking,” along with the maximum and most sophisticated conscientious awareness some voices must be ignored while paying immense attention to one of America’s finest, namely Henry Buckminster Fuller. He argues, “…ALL CHILDREN ARE BORN GENIUSES; 9,999 OUT OF EVERY 10,000 ARE SWIFTLY, INADVERTENTLY DEGENIUNIZED BY GROWNUPS...” [153]

Is there others angles to be added to the compounded perspective under discernment about changed changes?

Ray Kurzweil: “…Supercomputers will achieve one human brain capacity by 2010, and personal computers will do so by about 2020 .... We appear to be programmed with the idea that there are 'things' outside of our self, and some are conscious, and some are not .... We are beginning to see intimations of this in the implantation of computer devices into the human body...”

The world is not analogue anymore. Its quality is only digital and hence emphatically over-mathematical. Ergo, if you don’t attach the future, the future will attack you and outsmart you without a fail.

Supporting the motions of all of the above in this digital universe of ours, check out the take by the author of “…The World is Flat...”

Thomas Friedman indicates: “...People are always [and wrongfully] assuming that everything that is going to be invented must have been invented already. But it hasn’t...” [139]

I could easily offer, based on unimpeachable facts, many instances of why Friedman is absolutely right to the dismay of some wishing but not sufficiently enculturating themselves.

What happens to your vision when you don’t understand that the world is not analog but pervasively ? increasingly so ? over-digital?

Muhamad Yunus: “…There eyes were blinded by the knowledge they had...” [153]

Brainy discoveries and the IT revolution?

J. G. Taylor, B. Horowitz, K. J. Friston: “…Now, for the first time, we are observing the brain at work in a global manner with such clarity that we should be able to discover the overall programs behind its magnificent powers...” [142]

From Darwin and well into the present twentieth-one century?

Gregory S. Paul and Earl Cox: “…When Queen Victoria was in her prime, an Englishman, Charles Darwin, discovered a fundamental truth that shook mankind so severely that it remains today a matter of extreme distress and massive denial. Darwin realized that life on our planet is not the recent and fixed product of deity-mediated special creation, but has been constantly changing over a long span of time … The paleontologist who followed Darwin have taught us that time has no respect for species. Whole dynasties of life have been swept away and replaced with new ones. More than 65 million years ago, the world was filled with swift, deadly meat-eaters, including huge tyrannosaurs stalking elephant-sized horned dinosaurs and duck-billed herbivores. Flying pterosaurs were as big and heavy as sailplanes. Small, graceful, predaceous dinosaurs had binocular vision, big brains, and grasping hands. After 170 million years of successful evolution, they achieved the height of variation and power. Resplendent and numerous on the fertile Cretaceous plains, how could it be that within a few years they all would be gone forever? This chilling story suggests a ticking clock for humanity, as well; dare we think of our own extinction? There is ticking clock for humanity, and it may be mere seconds before midnight. TOMORROW IS UPON US, AND WHAT IS ABOUT TO HAPPEN IN THE NEW DAY IS FAR, FAR STRANGER THAN MOST PEOPLE DARE TO THINK … Even Darwin did not realize how right he was, or how far evolution will take us. We should not fault Darwin for his lack of vision. Darwin lived in a time when the modern scientific revolution was just beginning. It was also a time of steam engines, gas lamps, and phrenology. Science, in our late 20th century sense, was still a few years away. Yet even today, few nonscientists have more than an inkling of how life evolved or how technologies such as the automobile, the light switch, or the airplane actually work … WE LIVE IN A HIGH-TECHNOLOGY WORLD, WITH LITTLE APPRECIATION FOR HOW THINGS GOT THE WAY THEY ARE…” [169]

What is the personal cosmology in the orbit of a person seeking foresight? You capture foresights to construe a cohesive vision, Do you not?

Antonio Machado: “…Man, incurable futurist, is the only traditionalist animal...” [130]

?Don’t win their “hearts,” just win their minds kindly and respectfully?

The undersigned and the present material’s author indicated:? “…If you really want to make an operational difference in your professional theater of operations, go and get a full immersion in the fringe. Right in there, under that tense and pressing dynamics, you’ll have the vantage flux of the outputted mirage...” [129]

I just wonder: Is it about Scientific Method or is it about Scientific Method Under The Tutelage of Applied Omniscience and With The Application of The Systems Methodology Approach? I designed, to this effect, the illustration viewable at http://bit.ly/d6d84w and also note http://slidesha.re/omisci

The more scientific and technological knowledge doubling, the most indispensable becomes the grasping of the applied omniscience notion in every execution for Life.

The name of the game and the change of game-changers?

“…Which way will the future go? Science fiction authors seem to favor dystopian futures over utopian ones, probably because they make for more interesting plots. BUT SO FAR, AI SEEMS TO FIT IN WITH OTHER REVOLUTIONARY TECHNOLOGIES (PRINTING, PLUMBING, AIR TRAVEL, TELEPHONY) WHOSE NEGATIVE REPERCUSSIONS ARE OUTWEIGHED BY THEIR POSITIVE ASPECTS...” [192]

A technological and academic institution outsmarting cutting-edge science and technology to a point to generate more wealth than the combination of many countries?

Juan Enriquez: “…Wealth is concentrated and portable. MIT faculty and alumni produce as much wealth as all but Twenty-Two Countries In The World...” [163]

Before we proceed any further, please always remember the following.

“Everything is related to everything else.” [109]. When invoking “Everything is related to everything else,” it is succinctly to say (that is) by way of matter-of-fact example:

“Everything is interrelated to everything else.”
“Everything is connected to everything else.”
“Everything is interconnected to everything else.”
“Everything is intricate to everything else.”
“Everything is involved in everything else.”
“Everything is inter-associated to everything else.”
“Everything is interlocked to everything else.”
“Everything is inter-coupled to everything else.”
“Everything is inter-joined to everything else.”
“Everything is conjoint to everything else.”
“Everything is inter-tied to everything else.”
“Everything is interdependent to everything else.”
“Everything is correlated to everything else.”
“Everything is intertwined with everything else.”
“Everything is inter-meshed with everything else.”
“Everything is implicated in everything else.”
“Everything is entangled with everything else.”
“Everything is entwined with everything else.”
“Everything is tangled with everything else.”
“Everything is knotted with everything else.”
“Everything is interwoven into everything else.”
“Everything is engaged with everything else.”
“Everything is parenthetical to everything else.”

“Everything is related to everything else” does not make any sense at all for people who have chosen not to get educated and self-educated on indispensable basic science for Eternity.

Einstein has an appropriate thought to share: “... [The human being] experiences himself, his thoughts and feelings as something separated from the rest — a kind of optical delusion of our consciousness. This delusion is a kind of prison for us, restricting us to our personal desires and to affection for a few persons nearest to us. Our task must be to free ourselves from this prison by widening our circle of compassion to embrace all living creatures and the whole of nature in its beauty...” [108]

CONTENTS

CONTENT BY THEME AND PAGE
(Only the duly printed book versions have a precise page number. However, the rest of the structure is as indicated.)

CHAPTER 1 ? NOTICE TO READERS ? 10 ? 14 PAG. (S)
CHAPTER 1 ? THE IMPERATIVE NOTE ? 14 ? 24 PAG. (S)
CHAPTER 1 ? OBJECTIVE ? 24 ? 64 PAG. (S)
CHAPTER 1 ? PROLOGUE ? 64 ? 99 PAG. (S)
CHAPTER 2 ? THE CHALLENGE ? 98 ? 109 PAG. (S)
CHAPTER 2 ? AN ACTUAL DIALOGUE OF DARWIN, KANT, NEWTON, GOETHE ? 99 ? 112 PAG. (S)
CHAPTER 2 ? AN EPIC OMISSION(S)? ? 113 ? 115 PAG. (S)
CHAPTER 2 ? THE PEER-TO-PEER MESSAGE AMONG IGNORAMUSES ? 116 ? 117 PAG. (S)
CHAPTER 2 ? COMPLEXITY AND THE DEATH OF SIMPLICITY ? 117 ? 118 PAG. (S)
CHAPTER 2 ? TO BE OR NOT TO BE IN EXECUTION? ? 118 — 119 PAG. (S)
CHAPTER 2 ? THE INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY REVOLUTION AND THE ABSENCE OF COHESIVE LANGUAGE? ? 119 ? 121 PAG. (S)
CHAPTER 2 ? BONAPARTE’S PROPHECIES ON HURRICANE KATRINA’ AND GULF OF MEXICO’S ? 132 ? 134 PAG. (S)
CHAPTER 2 ? STRATEGOS INSTITUTE’S FOUNDER AND LONDON BUSINESS SCHOOL’S PROFESSOR ON THE FUTURE ? 125 ? 128 PAG. (S)
CHAPTER 3 ? ROCKET SCIENCE ABOUT ACTUAL DISCIPLINED SUCCESS CAPTURING? ? 128 ? 131 PAG. (S)
CHAPTER 3 ? INTRODUCTORY QUOTATIONS – AND WITH COMMENTARIES – BY ENLIGHTENED MINDS! ?131 ? 163 PAG. (S)
CHAPTER 3 ? THE FUTURE AND THE TECHNOLOGICAL SINGULARITY AS PER RAY KURZWEIL, PH.D. ? 165 ? 167 PAG. (S)
CHAPTER 3 ? WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW? HOW MANY “NOWS” ARE THERE? ARE THOSE “NOWS” STILL RELEVANT? ? 163 ? 173 PAG. (S)
CHAPTER 3 ? METHOD FIRST, TECHNOLOGY SECOND! ? 173 PAG. (S)
CHAPTER 4 ? DEEPENING OUR MULTIDIMENSIONAL APPROACH IN AND TO THIS BOOK! ? 174 ? 222 PAG. (S)
CHAPTER 5 ? RELEVANT COMMENTARIES TO CLARIFY HIDEOUS MISUNDERSTANDINGS (UNDER SYSTEMATIC COMMISSION) BY MAGNIFICENT PEOPLE ? 222 ? 251 PAG. (S)
CHAPTER 5 ? “ON PREDICTIONS” ? 251 ? 252 PAG. (S)
CHAPTER 6 ? DEMYSTIFYING THE “REAL DEAL” IN PROFESSION, TECHNOLOGY, LEADERSHIP, MANAGEMENT, STRATEGY, AND BUSINESS, AS WELL AS ? OFFERING THE CLEAREST BLUEPRINT! ? 251 ? 255 PAG. (S)
CHAPTER 6 ? QUESTION: WHAT DO RALPH WALDO EMERSON, JAMES D. WATSON, THOMAS JEFFERSON, THEODORE ROOSEVELT, WINSTON CHURCHILL, ARTHUR C. CLARKE, BERNARD D'ESPAGNAT, ALBERT EINSTEIN, CARL SAGAN, MALCOLM S. KNOWLES, BERTRAND RUSSELL, FRANCIS BACON, HENRY KISSINGER, OTTO HERMAN KHAN, BURRHUS FREDERIC SKINNER, AND ? 255 ? 264 PAG. (S)
CHAPTER 6 ? CONCLUSION ? 264 ? 265 PAG. (S)
CHAPTER 6 ? QUESTION: ARE WE ADRIFT IN A SEA OF CONFUSION? CAN THE UNDERSIGNED OFFER A REASONABLE PATHWAY? ? 265 ? 268 PAG. (S)
CHAPTER 6 ? GLOBAL SEISMIC SHIFTS BY DR. STEPHEN COVEY, PH.D. !
CHAPTER 6 ? ULTIMATE LUMINARIES ON MOST ADVANCED INTELLIGENCE AND TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESSION …
CHAPTER 6 ? THE TOP TRENDS FOR 2010 BY SAN FRANCISCO FUTURIST DR. JAMES CANTON, PH.D. ? 268 ? 274 PAG. (S)
CHAPTER 6 ? FOURTEEN FUTURE TRENDS FOR BUSINESS IN 2009 AND BEYOND BY THOMAS FREY, SENIOR FUTURIST AT THE DAVINCI INSTITUTE
CHAPTER 6 ? SIX PROFOUND SHIFTS BY DR. SHOSTAK
CHAPTER 6 ? THE FUTURE ENVISIONED BY A RESEARCH PHYSICIST AND SCIENTIST!
CHAPTER 6 ? 2011 TRENDS BY DR. JAMES CANTON, PH.D. (AS SEEN ON NOV 30, 2010)
CHAPTER 6 ? THE MESSAGE ? 274 PAG. (S)
CHAPTER 6 ? ANSWERED QUESTIONS? ? 274 ? 275 PAG. (S)
CHAPTER 7 ? EPILOGUE ? 275 ? 280 PAG. (S)
CHAPTER 7 ? CAVEAT (Disruptional Singularity?) ? 280 ? 284 PAG. (S)
CHAPTER 7 ? “THE HOPE” ? 284 ? 285 PAG. (S)
CHAPTER 7 ? HOW TO COPE WITH CENTURY TWENTIETH ONE! ? 289 ? 290
CHAPTER 7 ? WHAT ARE THE TYPES OF THINKING THAT JOINTLY AND SIMULTANEOUSLY MUST BE EXERCISED TO FIRST GUESS THE FUTURE RIGHT IN THE THIRD MILLENNIUM? ? 291 ? 304
CHAPTER 8 ? REFLECTING ON THE EDUCATION WE IMMEDIATELY NEED ? 305 ? 316
CHAPTER 8 ? APPENDIX OF DEFINITION OF APPLIED OMNISCIENCE ? 316 ? 322
CHAPTER 8 ? THE MOST THOUGHTFUL STATEMENT BY ANY AMERICAN PRESIDENT TO DATE! ? 322 ? 323
CHAPTER 8 ? NASA LEWIS RESEARCH CENTER, THE OHIO AEROSPACE INSTITUTE, THE VISION-21 SYMPOSIUM AND SAN DIEGO STATE UNIVERSITY ? 323 ? 345
CHAPTER 8 ? “THE FUTURIST” MAGAZINE'S TOP-10 FORECASTS FOR 2010 AND BEYOND PLUS MORE THAN 250 FORECASTS ? 345 ? 451
CHAPTER 8 ? EIGHT STRATEGIC STEPS TO COPE WITH THE FUTURE TODAY!
CHAPTER 8 ? GLOSSARY ? 451 ? 459
CHAPTER 9 ? WHAT I’VE GIVEN YOU! ? 459 ? 460
CHAPTER 9 ? ANNOTATED BIBLIOGRAPHY ? 460 ? 473
CONTACT
CHAPTER 9 ? ADDITIONAL BIBLIOGRAPHY FOR SUGGESTED READING ? 473 ? 475
CHAPTER 9 ? ABOUT THE AUTHOR ? 475 ? 488

« CHAPTER 1 »
NOTICE TO READERS!

Some readers might find helpful to have “handy” an Oxford Dictionary, American Heritage Dictionary, and even the Encyclopedia Britannica. There are explained entries such as: crinkum-crankum, criss-cross, terzetto, thé dansant, tertium quid, among others.

Can anyone remember the King’s sentence: “…A person’s world equates to the size his (her) own vocabulary...” By any measure, your technical and philosophical vocabulary most be multiplied by a thousand-fold as you keep progressing it exponentially.

Since there has been a great deal of futile debate about the change, its rate and scale, the undersigned has approached the subject matter through narrative illustrations at times. He is actually serious and rigorous about understanding the dynamics and implications of change in this first decade of Twentieth-One Century and onward. Accuracy and accuracy, too, are beyond sine qua no to the undersigned.

You'll certainly find everything in the Oxford Dictionary as he believes that you should successfully search for the same in the American Heritage Dictionary.

Since I have never been a lexicographer and since I am not outsourcing my linguistics capabilities to you and since I am not soliciting anything from you, it is only your sole duty and your sole duty alone to verify the root meaning of every term here contained.

I would counsel to avoid, as wisest semantics suggest, the illusion of meaning, in a world mired of confusions. It suffices to me the fortunes to be, within my standards, in the greatest contexts of confusion. To my advantage, that allows me the sovereign opportunity to immediately tackle the indispensable challenge and thus keeping my brain’s commutating blood streams lighter.

This book has mostly to do with all forms of change and the impact stemming from said impact. Topics related to science, technology, methodology, leadership, and management are all addressed.

Given the abrupt rise of change, this is also a management book about how to mitigate, modulate and terminate hazards and risks, thus capturing the “upsides” of every professional or organizational endeavor.

This book is multifaceted and generates insights and ideas so that the readers themselves can operate them from a mental framework and as per the perceptions of "real" and “virtual” realities within his / her own contexts and frameworks. This is a book of many facets with many and ample nuances in each facet. To the undersigned superficiality and especially universal superficiality is preposterous to his nature. Subsequently, the present exploration is indeed: profound and responsibly profound.

This book has many facets, from the beginning to the end bearing in mind that “…everything is interrelated with everything else,...” since 2010 now ? in subtle and dramatic ways ? there are many more tangible things, as well as immeasurable ones, which are serious and smoothly interwoven with many other things in most fluid modes.

This multi-faceted, interdisciplinary approach scrutinizes a method from a systemic, systematic, holistic, and comprehensive way ? from the micro level through the maximum macro level.

This approach ascertains that this material will never be superficial. Both in the micro and macro levels, many dramatic and subtle interrelationships increasingly take place across the board.

One of this book's most important purpose is to communicate that what we call "change” also will continue to change and change without any previous precedence. It is also a book of management, leadership, risk management, technology, science and new ideas to meet the demands and challenges of a new century marked by his break with the past.

A change that gives leaps and bounds every week, while barely in the decade of the nineties, some of these changes were seen in five or ten year-term periods. It generates insights and ideas so that the readers themselves can operate from a mental framework as per their perceiving the patterns while registering of the realities of "real" and virtual.

Preterit notions to secure being strategically devastated?

Peter Drucker: “…The greatest danger in times of turbulence is not the turbulence; it is to act with yesterday’s logic...” [146]

If, undeniably, this is a book about change and for many driving forces that shape and reshape our lives. It is not, in any case, a material of prediction, divination, future-telling or gleaning through crystal balls.

While offering some "trends" and "predictions" ? so called ? by third parties, the central interest is the nowadays required critical, creative, thinking, with depth and breadth, with rigor and even with flexibility, as change (and their projected trends and predictions) is updated in real time.

What do Alvin and Heidi Toffler can tell us about the 2025’s outlook through Toffler Associates’ assessing?

Toffler Associates: “…Yet the opportunities and challenges do not pause. The forces of change are in fact accelerating as technology, communications, and mobility link us in a blurring and buzzing globalizing world.... The image of this future became clearer when we and 40 executives and thought leaders closely examined five specific technology areas and explored their implications for society, business, and government. We examined biotechnology, cyber-technology, nanotechnology, ubiquitous sensing, and wild cards from science and technology. We asked the thought leaders to apply their projections in five crosscutting areas to identify the key technology convergences that would most affect or disrupt society in 2025: economy and wealth, energy and the environment, health and demographics, infrastructure, and governance .... We learned that the technologies were changing in ways that made traditional distinctions between disciplines and areas of science decreasingly relevant. Biotechnologists regularly describe nano-scale developments. Nanotechnologists apply insights from genome sequencing. Research is spread, enhanced, and stolen with cyber tools. Research will lead to carbon-free or carbon-neutral technologies that disrupt industries and policies. The blurring of boundaries between sciences are creating convergences. Breakthroughs across disciplines are stimulating accelerating insights and applications...”

As concluding this important report, Toffler Associates argue: “…Knowledge is being created at such a rate that much of what we know will soon be obsolete .... The technological developments maturing between now and 2025 and the innovative ways they may be applied reflect an acceleration and shift that can seem both promising and challenging to decision makers. In the Industrial Age, developments in steam power, combustion engines, automobiles, aerospace, and telephony seemed slow to mature – their development and spread required large industrial infrastructures. In the Information Age, developments in bio, nano, cyber, and sensors are possible with a smaller and more differentiated infrastructure, and they are occurring simultaneously around the globe. Global information networks are increasing the pace of this technological innovation. This deeper, more widely spread development of knowledge is different from our recent past and portends further changes .... The convergences of bio, nano, cyber, sensors and wild card technologies are causing even greater acceleration of change. But at the same time, knowledge is being created at such a rate that much of what we know about these technologies and their application rapidly becomes obsolete as it is overtaken by newer discoveries. Our institutions will be challenged to respond to the combination of these technological changes and the many other drivers of change simultaneously. We expect many systems and institutions to be desynchronized by these changes and efforts to resynchronize them will add to the sense of disruption that many people feel .... Many thought leaders we worked with in this effort are highly optimistic. Nearly all who contributed to these findings see technological developments as promising, and as stimuli for new opportunities. At the same time, some cautioned about vulnerabilities and called for leadership and action to address these vulnerabilities before we feel their impact. This report serves as one input to decision makers who can aid us in adapting with the changes and creating our future...” [150]

The Perpetual Innovation Imperative and Enterprises Impacted by Continuous Change?

“… In the mid-1980s a study by Shell suggested that the average corporate survival rate for large company was about half as long as that of a human being. Since then the pressures on firms have increased enormously from all directions ? with the inevitable result that business life expectancy is reduced still further. Many studies look at the changing composition of key indices and draw attention to the demise of what were often major firms and in their time key innovators. For example, Foster and Kaplan point out that of the 500 companies originally making up the Standard & Poor 500 list in 1957, only 74 remained on the list through to 1977. Of the top 12 companies which make up the Dow Jones Index in 1900 only one ? General Electric ? survives today. Even apparently robust giants like IBM, GM or Kodak can suddenly display worrying sings of mortality, whilst for small firms the picture is often considerably worse since they lack the protection of a large resource base ... Some firms have had to change dramatically to stay in business. For example, a company founded in the early nineteenth century, which had Wellington boots and toilet paper amongst its product range, is now one of the largest and most successful in the world of telecommunications business. Nokia began life as a lumber company, making the equipment and supplies needed to cut down forests in Finland. It moved through into paper and from there into the ‘paperless office’ world of IT ? and from there into mobile telephones ... Another mobile phone player ? Vodafone Airtouch ? grew to its huge size by merging with a firm called Mannesmann which, since its birth in 1870s, has been more commonly associated with the invention and production of steel tubes! TUI owns Thomsom (the travel group) in the UK, and is the largest European travel and tourism services company. Its origins, however, lie in the mines of old Prussia where it was established as a public sector state lead mining and smelting company!...” [197]

How does a global corporation spell out century twentieth-one leadership to the world?

J. W. Marriott, Jr., Chairman and CEO, Marriott International, Inc.: “…Great leaders know and appreciate the value of people. They don’t just listen to the opinions of others, they seek them out. They make sure every member of their team has the opportunity to make a meaningful, lasting contribution. They recognize that their most important responsibility as a leader is to develop their people, give them room to grow and inspire them to realize their full potential. This has long been our philosophy at Marriott, where we believe that if we take great care of our associates, they will take care of our customers...” [153]

Becoming enculturated in mind preparedness by a supreme statesman!

Winston Churchill: “...To every man there comes in his lifetime that special moment when he is figuratively tapped on the shoulder and offered a chance to do a very special thing, unique to him and fitted to his talents. What a tragedy if that moment finds him unprepared or unqualified for the work which would be his finest hour...”

The Intelligence Community on Trends?

National Intelligence Council (NIC): “...If you like where events seem to be headed, you may want to take timely action to preserve their positive trajectory. If you do not like where they appear to be going, you will have to develop and implement policies to change their trajectory...” [144]

And staying mindful where highly specialized knowledge is the consistent convergence of multiple specialties and sub-specialties practiced in a discipline that I call, define and implement as “…applied omniscience...” At http://slidesha.re/omisci

The aesthetics of this material you should leave under the watch of the tailor, shoemaker and saddler, according to your convenience. Believe it or not, the complexity that plays this material is already quite high. Any additional and un-recommended simplification runs only at the reader's expense insofar as to own added distortions. Some expenses equate to a life-to-death liability.

The rosy facts about Life?

Alvin Toffler: “…Change is not merely necessary to life ? it is life...” [148]

When I talk about serious complexities to be dealt with in practice and not via mental vacuous and futile abstractions, we must appeal to a multitude of tools, beginning with those of "…Sciences of Complexity…” (http://bit.ly/c14KAw).

This is not about a marketing,’ sales' gimmick. Neither about a little “white” lie or "public relations"-stunt generation situation. I am not seeking neither likability nor dis-likability. I am not seeking approving or dis-proving. I am seeking ultimate truths to instill to my own persona. I am not against too many things. One thing I am really against is “social engineering,” especially institutionalized social engineering.

The author does not seek anything other than making notes for himself. This material is not in search of approval or acceptance, or popularity, or visibility, but the result of something the author has to do for someone other than himself.

Some "marketers" use the Web to give wide dissemination of these ideas, not for the sake of the good intentions of the subject addressed by me and me and my own me. For them this book is a "wild-card" to honor his sometimes ? and in some cases ? impious, over-leveraged "social-engineering profession."

I've offered myself as I usually do is always a golden guarantee. The first golden warranty is to apply the maximum rigor, using all my practical and empirical experience and theoretical. Independently of the challenging topics, the second golden guarantee by myself allows me to offer a high degree of accuracy, covering every nuance possible.

There are five trends in management and business today. One is to keep talking about the "leader" and "leadership." Many authors and readers believe that the word "manager" is a pejorative term that equates to "stalemate bureaucrat." The other fashion is the "master minds to personal happiness" (indeed) and the search and implementation of the "science of success."

You will not find the latter among readers "Industrial Engineers," who understand plans, road-maps, blueprints, etc. So as to execute (do) as planned and what was learned during the planning time. It is stupid to think that "leadership" is separable from the "management."

Another trend, in addition, is to insist that the "leader" and "manager" must have "soft skills" and "emotional intelligence” attributes as most important. There are many more important attributes starting with the creativity and analytical capacities. All they need is systematic and universal prudence and tact with integrity.

Had Bonaparte told them to stop fighting the stupidity against science and mathematics, What would have them become? Leader so badly was Bonaparte who put the whole of Europe and Russia under his feet through energetic scientific knowledge.

Not paradoxically, Bonaparte much stresses the importance of three disciplines: (a) English, (b) Science, and (b) Mathematics.

Another trend, more than one thousand years, is to repeat a million times ? especially via the Web ? a ton of lies assisted with bits of relative truths. And all this creates a celestial robe of the sacred to followers to pack and find some kind of movement for the sake of who is at the apex of the pyramids.

On the authors I like are the fundamentals that explain the opposite aspects or the ignored ones by me. I like complex and accomplished writers because the authors encourage me to exercise mind expansion, as I try to understand their positions. Clearly, everyone is free to read either simpletons or Nobel Laureates.

There are many, many people who consider themselves the "Alpha and Omega" of a professional practice. And they say they do not like formal education and universities. They do not like having to read new books. Less they like studying academic textbooks and highly specialized technical lecture.

Not knowing either "A" (Alpha), or the "B" (Beta), these individuals insist they want to conquer, forever, the "Z" (Omega).

They want big profits quickly without even understanding who is Mr. Peter Drucker or, say, Frederick Winslow Taylor. You can solve some personal problems with "How-To" books. But for larger issues of profession, there are oceans of expensive literature that take years to assimilate.

Who supports you likes to know thoroughly the problems (in my case, those of my clients and mine) and then understanding the magnitude and the scale and nuances and begin to work earnestly in the solution of such problems, regardless of how simple or complicated the solution.

We are all important. Everyone is valuable. Each one is unique. Everyone has attributes, skills, dexterities and talents. All deserve, if they so wish, to realize the maximum of their minds for the good of themselves and of humanity.

I wrote this book to please myself. I'm not looking to please or displease anybody except my own person.

What can we get in return?

The undersigned and the present material’s author indicated: “…There are great hazards by Nature. There are also great hazards that are man-made. The majority of these ones impacts Nature itself. Through science, technology and management (all chapters), the practitioner can transform downsides and upsides in greater benefits, regardless if hazards are presented by Nature or humans. A seemingly 'good safe execution' can become easily compound into a greater perilous situation. A lack of 'optimum safe execution' can become easily compound into a greater perilous situation. A seemingly 'sub-optimum safe execution' can become easily compound into a greater perilous situation. These hazards can be sustainably transformed into benefits through the perennial application of the maximum within the optimum of thoroughly comprehensive risk management...” [129]

When does a RISK ? as well as uncontrolled form of downside change ? stop being a risk?

When one of these conditions takes place:

(a) When it is managed optimally, or
(b) When it unleashes a LOSS or POTENTIAL DISRUPTION crystallized.

The term “applied omniscience” (http://slidesha.re/omisci) is here defined as it empirically used by the undersigned. It’s useful to recall and bear in mind that “omniscience” is widely used in all sorts of publications (as well as in their operational settings) and endeavors by scholars, academics, researchers, scientists and Nobel Laureates. As a person of learning most sophisticated literature is instrumental to this author.

You can use this practical tool remembering, “…The mind is a terrible thing to waste...”

The definition of the omniscience perspective can be revised at << http://slidesha.re/omisci >> as well. You can also read it within the present material.

By the way, many people erroneously think of computers whenever they hear the word “system.” A huge word with a colossal dynamism and with a gargantuan underestimation!

To further illustrate the impact of downside change, What was The World Trade Center Disaster and Recovery Planning about?

“…On September 11, 2001, two airplanes flew into the World Trade Center (WTC), killing more than 2000 people. All WTC offices were destroyed and many nearby buildings were badly damaged and immediately evacuated. Beyond the loss of human lives, major jammed due to the obvious increased phone activity. In addition, major telecommunication providers such as AT&T and Verizon lost major portion of services because their major switching centers and computer systems were located in areas near the WTC. This impacted several major clients, including Lufthansa Airlines which lost telephone services for its sales offices in downtown Manhattan. Lufthansa had chosen AT&T as its primary and Verizon as a backup provider. With both facilities impacted, Lufthansa was left without a telephone service for almost a week .... Many companies that relied on the Internet to conduct business were not severely impacted. In fact, the Internet became a viable alternate vehicle for communications in that disastrous week. In my own office in New Jersey that afternoon, we could not get the news from TVs (no TVs were available in the offices), so we all visited the news sites from CNN, FOX and others to understand what was going on. Internet telephony and email became the primary source of communicating with family and friends to let them know that we were OK .... Merrill Lynch had over 9,000 employees at the WTC and the nearby World Financial Center. Most were unharmed and were relocated to other places of work quickly and successfully. Merrill resumed its business later in the same day and did not suffer as much as others. The main reason was that it had redundant telecommunications capabilities and a good disaster recovery plan. Merrill had rehearsed the plan four months earlier, so it was better prepared for a disaster than others. The plan included priorities for business activities, so that high priorities activities could be brought online quicker. It also included detailed procedures for restoring critical applications with procedures that included necessary technologies, personnel, and facilities for a quick restoration in case of a disaster. Logistics were also in place for transportation of personnel and equipment, with provisions for housing and feeding employees for up to 8 weeks. This disaster recovery plan went into action within minutes after the incident and Merrill was operational later that day...” [189]

To the readers I have a word of caution. The present material addresses increasing complexities, not seeking to be offensive to any mind, but engaged in a dogged search to shedding and hijacking understanding and marsh-able grasp of ever-daring problems.

To succinctly attain the stated before, I will not shortcut the language. I will use the language that I consider appropriate not to make it “extremely accommodating” to some other audiences, since this is a technical material and not a necessary “sitcom” for some other time. Though I greatly appreciate Churchillian humor.

Since to a great extent the majority of my activities are related to life-to-death risk management, I am used to be thorough and use most unambiguous language not because “one” might die, but even three-thousand people can die because of an act of negligence.

Professional futurology with the utmost rigor allows you see “disruption potential” scenarios in advance both to learn, plan, prepare, and execute.

Never predicting, just formulating endless, savvy scenarios?

Dr. James A. Ogilvy, Ph.D.: “…Because time is real, and the future unpredictable, the challenge of carving a path into the future calls for a different way of thinking than the old, mechanical methods of strategic planning. In order to anticipate wholly new industries like the personal computer industry, it’s not enough to make predictions based on old assumptions. You need to imagine alternative scenarios based on new assumptions. You need to imagine alternative scenarios based on new assumptions. Those new assumptions need more than new numbers...” [162]

The growth of our society’s benefits and risks are beyond hyper-geometrical, and ?—? that is to say ?—? exponentially non-linear and could care less about disrupting any fossilized bond with the preterit “PAST.” Subsequently, not in second nature but in quintessential first nature, I don’t know how to discern, industry and pondering without incredible nuance (“incredible” as per other prominent colleagues).

Can one make technological growth for good?

Gordon E. Moore: “…No exponential is forever … but we can delay ‘forever’…” [142]

Which come preeminently first?

The undersigned and the present material’s author indicated:? “…If the PRESENT is a function of the FUTURE, Does the FUTURE, accordingly, elicit in the PRESENT?...” [129]

?Give one an “else’s” hint to peripheral thinking!

The undersigned and the present material’s author indicated: ? “…De-realize of thus de-focus from that taken-for-granted realities of folly, literally…!” [129]

However, if you bear with this work (not with the undersigned), you’ll see the sequential logic. Clearly, there is an affluent interplay of sequential logics with most diverse tempos, timings, life cycles. All of the prior requires of the most rigorous, with tons of vigor, of systemic, systematic, holistic, gestalt, womb-to-tomb thinking. This is so if we wish to make a diagnostic with the right prescription for solving in parallel a plethora of complicated problems. You solve problems to generate opportunities and benefits.
?
Unreal impregnability in your operative context?

The undersigned and the present material’s author indicated: “…Mostly in-source your mind with long-unknown virtualities...” ?[?129?]

I forewarn the reader that there is here a large magnitude of diverse issues addressed. If the reader is really engaged, she and he shall find the linkage among these many matters of interest. I am sorry to say that, seeking and meaning well, there are no disconnects. Once again, “…Everything is related to everything else...”

If the reader finds terminology inconvenient, the undersigned suggests for her or him to decide whether to go forward with reading or not.

I hope I have given both you and myself some way of thinking and perceiving how thought is brought into action and execution.

Unless otherwise utterly indicated, translations are performed by the undersigned.

« CHAPTER 1 »
THE IMPERATIVE NOTA BENE

Through this work, terms widely used such as “knowledge,” “science,” and “learning” — among others directly or indirectly inferring and/or connoting knowledge acquisition — are solely considered only in regards to practical application and ample execution.

Every reflecting or pondering, in my case, must be conducive to smarter actions. Smarter executions require much more wisdom. And wisdom is nothing else than organized knowledge.

Ergo, lack of knowledge and ignorance will bring about the opposite to smart executions, but in fact emphasize disharmony, imprudence and peace disruption. IN NO WAY THIS A BATTLEFIELD CONTEXT!

To keep focus in order I will be reminding me and you that the breadth and scale of the present work is, to say the least, multidisciplinary and cross-functional, seeking the fluid image of the interactive, intrepid whole with lucidity.

I will be reminding you that “…everything is related to everything else,…” including diverse notions in the present material you’re now reading. In order to understand well a scientist, a technologist, a leader, a manager, an entrepreneur in the Twentieth-One Century, you will always need to understand the connections that are apparent and above all those that are systemically ignored, as well as those hidden.

In our case and because of the level of technological and scientific progression — and also due to some challenges brought about by Nature —, there is a difficult exercise to be learned immediately and easily: “…We cannot keep on using the ‘linear’ intuitiveness of those madly in love with the folly...”

Ipso facto, we must only use in conjunction: Non-linear intuitiveness and non-linear counter-intuitiveness (exponentially so). If this is not followed through to the last consequences and ultimate exhale, in vain everything would have been thrown in a futility sack while letting open a multitude of Pandora boxes.

In a world of counterintuitiveness, What does it take to advance your enterprise to a forward position?

“…‘A slow sort of country’ said the Red Queen. ‘Now where, you see, it takes all the running you can do to keep in the same place. IF YOU WANT TO GET SOMEWHERE ELSE, YOU MUST RUN AT LEAST TWICE AS FAST AS THAT!...” (Lewis Carroll, Alice through the Looking Glass) [197]

You cannot be, by example, the “leader” of a high-tech company in genomic or artificial intelligence and “get by” successfully just by having tons of people’s skills. YES, YOU WILL NEED THOSE BUT YOU WILL ALSO NEED THE SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL FUNDAMENTALS IN PLACE FIRST. FIRST THINGS, FIRST!

Like it or not, the world is ruthlessly governed by applied mathematics and will become even more so as time elapses without a fail. At staggering rate the world is set in motion from analog (linear) to digital (massively non-linear).

The clever problem-solving pathway?

Eliezer S. Yudkowsky: “Our sole responsibility is to produce something smarter than we are; any problems beyond that are not ours to solve ... [T]here are not hard problems, only problems that are hard to a certain level of intelligence. Move the bit upwards [in level of intelligence], and some problems will suddenly move from ‘impossible’ to ‘obvious.’ Move a substantial degree upwards, and all of them will become obvious.” [142]

From transgenic crops into vital vaccines?

Juan Enriquez: “...The skin and pulp of the orange that sits on your desk … Is just packing … What matters is the code contained in the seeds. Each seed has a long string of gene data that looks like … The seed guides growth, how a tree and its leaves develop … The size, flavor, color, shape of fruits. If you can read the code … And rewrite it … You can turn an orange into a vaccine, a contraceptive, a polyester. Each of these things has already been done in corn. Today, bananas and potatoes can vaccinate you against things like cholera, hepatitis, [and] diarrhea. You can harvest bulletproof fibers … Grow medicines in tobacco. And it’s not just apples, oranges, and corn that are rapidly becoming different organisms .... Mosquitoes are flying hypodermic needles. They can infect you with malaria, dengue, and other awful things. They do so by transferring a little bit of genetic code through their saliva … Into your bloodstream … Which then reprograms part of the way your cells operate … By changing your genetic code ever so slightly … In ways that can make you very sick. So why not engineer mosquito genes so that they have the opposite effect? If mosquito saliva contained antibodies .... Or if you made it hard for malaria to mutate inside a mosquito’s body … You could immunize people and animals … By making sure they were bitten. Because the language of genes (A, T, C, G) is the same for all creatures … You can mix species. If you are an artist, the genes that make jellyfish fluoresce at night … Can be used to make a bunny glow under black light. If you are an M.D., the same genes can be placed in monkeys to serve as markers … Which help identify cures for diseases like Alzheimer’s and cancer...” [163]

And even if your business enterprise is “low tech,” sooner or later you will be influenced — beyond unheard-of belief — under the competition of a high-tech rival. It doesn’t matter what you do for business, profession or organizations (including NGOs and supranational entities), you must have a depth understanding of the driving forces that are shaping and re-shaping it all perpetually.

Therefore, and given that “...everything is related to everything else...,” through this work the reader will need to connect the dotted links (as well as interface a plethora of contexts) between one paragraph and another, between one section and another, between one notion and another. If you ultimately do, you’ll have an immense vantage position of knowledge, awareness, and understanding. For your sake, gusto and convenience, the reader might consider having a pad note or notebook to make some annotations.

It doesn’t matter at all the order or the priority of the concurrent advent of factors (such as systemic risks, global climate crisis, global economic and financial crisis, new demographics, new challenges, new opportunities, great hurdles yet large opportunities to be conquered), the beginning of the Third Millennium (as of the first decade of said Millennium) is a NEW PLACE AND HENCE YOU CANNOT GET TO A NEW PLACE WITH AN OLD MAP. The “place” — here alluded metaphorically — is changing dramatically and with subtlety in “real time” in a 24/7/365 framework.

Given the fact that an old map is an ugly device to glitch your success, What sort of wisdom we must embrace? Let’s see. Solomon: “Where there is no vision, people perish.” [130] “…Vision is mired by lucid foresight by prepared minds...” http://slidesha.re/Get_more

In speaking of sense of direction, Frank Kafka argues: “...There are some things one can only achieve by a deliberate leap in the opposite direction. One has to go abroad in order to find the home one has lost...” [126]

For example, with the aim to illustrate and facilitate general understanding, we can say that bad technological change and good technological change are now stressing commonalities. In line with this premise, yet again the same “GOOD” technological change — in order to give an example — could “help” you transfer new hazards and risks into the work environment and markets (as well as industries), very much to your own detrimental.

Again, it does no matter AT ALL if your company or enterprise is acutely low-tech or not, since your “surroundings” are only into HIGH-TECH, literally (sic).

Imagine you're an architect and you use pencils to draw some preliminary sketches. And someone says that such an accomplished architect is creative, innovative, and proactive in seeking innovative solutions.

Can we get a hindsight in reversal, please, now?

Walter Adolf Gropius (1883 – 1969): “...Let’s wish, let’s imagine, let’s build together the new construction of the future...” [130]

But this architect has never understood the great complexity that exists underlying the major manufacturing processes of, say, a single pencil, noting that the “pencil” in question is the tool that helps you realize your ideas in more specific and tangible way.

It is clear now that the architect has (by his own cognizant desire of his own self) graciously and effectively accessed to an entrenched “blind spot” in the operation of his mind and said mind’s stemming processes to achieve the crystallization of the targeted discerned innovation.

In other words, everything is always connected to everything else in a level, as indicated and termed by scientists and technologists, “discreet.” In the mean times, authors and consultants tell their folks: “...Connect everything with everything else [even further so and in more obvious, fluid modes ad infinitum]...” [109]

Additionally, now — in this age of huge demands and challenges — you have to have two, three or four professional specialized expertises.

You can even be a great sub-specialist. But you don’t get it yet (seemingly) that the accomplishments are along the lines of: “Expert generalists.”

In addition, these times of great and fluid changes require that the problems and challenges are looked through most rigorous holistic thinking, seeing and operating AHEAD the executions of the broader perspective within all cross-functional insight-fullness.

It doesn’t matter if you have a kiosk selling newspapers, magazines, industry newsletters and even self-help books. Yes, yes, yes, you can insist that the core activity of your business is ridiculously simple and easy, yet lucrative (that is, continuously lucrative).

By stating the above notwithstanding, you are wrongly assuming that everything that surrounds your business (fiscal, tax environment, competition environment, emerging technology environment, legal and regulatory environment) is fixed, very simple and will never change not even one iota.

Accordingly, the artisan has to learn from classical physicists. The musician must learn from neuroscientists. The biologist will have to learn quantum mechanics. The expert in information technologies will also have to learn from psychologists.

The seller will have to learn finance and manufacturing processes. The rocket scientist must learn of social systems (including entomology). The sociologist will have to learn of applied mathematics and the “trade” of “optical physics.”

Success via being well-informed and even-though information is not knowledge?

Peter L. Bernstein: “...The information you have is not the information you want. The information you want is not the information you need. The information you need is not the information you can obtain. The information you can obtain costs more than you want to pay...” [127]

The undersigned and the present material’s author argue pertaining to the thought by Bernstein above: “...Good point, Mr. Bernstein, I agree and like to offer my view. There is the information that only each one has. Then there is the information that one of us with someone else can jointly have and generate. Subsequently, the smarter, the wiser and more seasoned the incumbency ?— with laser-beam eyes grabbing futures based on most ample historic perspective and comprehensive, revisionist, applied notions, the much better. Then what you mention on 'The information you can obtain costs more than you want to pay' may not come to us inexpensively, but once the drastic and dramatic Artificial Intelligence 'sets in' it will happen several things: (a) the information will become always irrelevant and obsolete by zillion orders of magnitude, (b) even if existed, said information would be useless, and (c) the information in question will become under the ultimately roguish control of something along the lines of a robo-Sapiens...” [129]

The university professor will have to learn from the kindergarten students. The medical doctor will have to learn from the nurses and paramedics. The nurse will have to learn something from the engineers.

The leader will have to learn from bad managers and the good managers alike. There is no sweeter honey than learning from someone else’s professional mistakes, so that YOU LEARN!

The journalist will have to learn from the chemists. The artist has to learn exact sciences. The scientist would have to learn fine art.

And by the way, the reading of any material is an intellectual exercise and a mindful choice of and by your own self. Everything in it is a rigorous intellectual exercise if you want to keep your own seriousness on to yourself.

If you are reading and studying this material, it is because you are searching for ideas, solutions or perspectives from other people.
Here there are no sub-themes or topics unrelated or not unambiguously and yet robustly related to the entirety of the WHOLE.

Anyone reading this material, if he / she felt that there are discomforting gaps between each other sub-themes, is failing to link the subtleties of certain items. If you feel that some points are unrelated, it is only up to you to establish the appropriate links and ultimate conclusion. Incidentally, these are kinetic links.

Remember that it is only you to whom belongs the “ownership” of drawing lessons and conclusions from this material. This material, in any case, is not intended to be nice or simplistic, as it addresses the many serious complications that surround all aspects of our lives to a considerable degree. These complications are removed to thrive and not cry.

This material utterly aims to raise awareness and not pleasing any soul. Certainly, this book does not seek to argue, especially so when going to the true roots of some problems that we face. We face complex problems (“advanced problems”) to SOLVE THEM and to carry on with the UPSIDES of our personal lives.

The undersigned, to a simple (or compound) literary term or unknown in our Shakespearean lingua franca, uses a dictionary or encyclopedia. Tell me, Do you know of a serious and disciplined reader who does not require dictionaries in the face of Earth?

I reiterate, therefore, and since everything is interconnected with everything else, that the undersigned is not interested in giving a just tiny peeks at a "corner" of the problem (challenge), but a broad and detailed one (that, by the way, flows), assessing and describing all the infinite nuances involved.

In any case, the world today (termed by some as the global "Knowledge Society" (that also embraces the “infotech economy”) requires, at all times, the most careful and thoughtful reading, studying and researching on a huge scale, as its fluidity and speed are increasingly more volatile and less predictable. We are besieged both by breakthrough and uncertainty. We must manage both concurrently, that is, in series.

Just to understand where each of us is located (work-wise, professionally, organizationally, in industry and to and before society), we have to do — in my opinion — a huge and sustained effort to try to identify and exploit the enormous driving forces that shape our lives.

The undersigned also wants to make it abundantly clear that there is NOT a quest to spread “bad news” or to consummate himself as a fatalist’s portrait.

The undersigned is not, as a result, either an “optimistic” or “pessimistic,” but rather a rational realistic that becomes a little hopeful when he begins to understand and work against the challenges and in favor of the slits filtering and shedding illustrated light to create new opportunities in the midst of mayhem.

On television when someone does not like a show he switches to another channel. On the Web when somebody does not like a Web page, she changes to another. If you feel that your human nature is uncomfortable with the reading of this material, you can always just get another reading material please.

The undersigned offers reliability, professionalism, a technical quality and analytical rigor. I have written this material to better understand my own: thoughts, discoveries, and takes. And thus the objective is to be useful, fruitful, productive, profitable and unfailing towards and within my clients, partners and my own person.

The classic Greeks believed that all problems of mankind are due to ignorance and can only be corrected with education for life. The undersigned fully and incontrovertibly agrees and supports the motion of the ancient Greeks.

Just to be on the “safe side,” my own Intellectual Manifesto is viewable at http://bit.ly/aBayq4

These extreme dynamics are presented here with knowledge, awareness and expecting to bring about understanding of such multitude of counter-intuitiveness contexts.

I have added an illustration at this permalink: http://bit.ly/Understanding_Dynamics

« CHAPTER 1 »
OBJECTIVE

In this book I have tried to give you a practical overview of massive change besieging our institutions, professions, lives and civilizations globally, as well as our personas, and how it can be taken advantage of. Regardless of how thorough I have been, this written work is never a substitute for your own personal and professional research, discernment, pondering and conclusions.

In the process, and remembering that “...everything is related to everything else,...” [109] the undersigned will address subject matters that seem in deep disconnect. There are jillion assumptions, notions, beliefs, ? as well as “truisms” (so-called) and grave misconceptions and fallacies ? that are working extraordinarily in precluding a better understanding of the world we now live in.

I will focus on rigor with vigor since superficiality has been taken to unprecedented prominence for our collective disgrace. By means of an example, in China people say: “...Don't look at the waves; just look at the currents underneath...” [129] I haven't found a more sensible wisdom to address the matters here under discussion.

In speaking of Chinese spiritual leaders in times of antiquity, a sage told his disciples, “...Attempt not to live in difficult times; those are the interesting ones indeed...” [129]

Our generations, and that preceding ones to ours, have chosen to live in difficult times, Have they not? Either you face realities or find the “means” to avoid it and seize the good consequences out of the downsides.

In China of antiquity there used to be some wise words — as per some spiritual leaders — along these lines: “...The first fifty years are to learn. The next fifty years are to labor...” [129]

In July 2010 a top corporate petroleum expert — speaking of imprudence as it was instilled in the Gulf of Mexico and as it is addressed here — said to news media that his British chairman was not a “...perfect English-speaking person!...” What did he mean? Did he mean that London is not sufficiently related to the Globe Theater?

Did he mean to say that his boss was not Shakespeare, Bacon, Milton, or Dickens? In fearing consummated liabilities are bared on one’s shoulders, Does one begin to arbitrarily tinker the sacrosanct science of semantics to deflect legal responsibilities? And “what if” the undersigned and the present material’s author indicated: “...To tinker a splendorous apparatus only that is required is to be a Homo Sapiens Sapiens, regardless of gender...”

Incidentally, there are lots of lost talks, indoctrination, and teaching “leadership” so-called by all of the wrong and right people making insidious, spectacular mistakes. The fewer ones get it right.

The undersigned and the present material’s author indicated: “...Declare the past, recover yesterday, analyze the present, enjoy today, and conceive and reinvent tomorrow...” [129]

Understanding the depth and breadth, partly, how people can conceive, develop and institute their own futures sustainably successful?

Juan Enriquez: “...The dominant language … and economic driver … of this century … is going to be GENETICS. Those who remain illiterate in this language … Won’t understand the force making the single biggest difference in their lives. Many countries and companies just don’t get it. They continue to invest primarily in stuff they can see and touch … Even though two-thirds of the global economy … IS ALREADY A KNOWLEDGE ECONOMY. THEY DO NOT INVEST IN, OR ATTRACT, SMART PEOPLE WHO ARE SCIENCE-LITERATE. THEY DO NOT GET PARTICULARLY CONCERNED AS MANY OF THEIR BRIGHTEST LEAVE. They forget … You need fewer people, time, or capital … To build a nation … Become an economic superpower … Wage war effectively … Or launch a global business. BUT YOU DO NEED TECHNOLOGY-LITERATE PEOPLE. Lack of technology literacy .... Is one of the reasons the gap between the richest and the poorest countries in the world is growing so quickly … Why there is a 427:1 gap. One way to get to where you want to be is to find a good map and a smart guide. The great cartographers of today aren’t mapping continents, rivers, mountains, or cities. They are mapping the genetic code of all living things. These maps are changing the way we look at all life … Because they provide blueprints crucial to almost every business. These maps change what we can make and how we make it … (One sad consequence of science moving so quickly in so many different areas is that you find ever fewer examples of good science fiction today … The future simply catches up to the imagination too quickly … As of January 31, 2001, it was legal to clone human embryos in Britain.). Willingly, or unwillingly, the ability to read the human gene code (genome) … Makes us all explorers. We have to beware of waterfalls. Some will have a sense of how to navigate … Others will drift along placidly … Till the water gets rough and murky … And the bottom suddenly disappears. Those who approach waterfalls in canoes … With no map … Are unlikely to survive if the waterfalls are really high. This happens to families, regions, and whole countries … Particularly when they fail to make the next generation smarter … Or decide to exhaust themselves by desperately paddling against change … They too become irrelevant and disappear. YOUR FUTURE, THAT OF YOUR CHILDREN, AND THAT OF YOUR COUNTRY DEPEND ON … UNDERSTANDING A GLOBAL ECONOMY DRIVEN BY TECHNOLOGY. UNDERSTANDING CODE, PARTICULARLY GENETIC CODE, IS TODAY’S MOST POWERFUL TECHNOLOGY...” [163]

There is not a single robust teamwork if there isn’t plentiful of cohesive bonding — regarding the sense of purpose and aiming highest to conquering goals, objectives and outcomes — if there is no optimum and executable states and flowing, yet integrated states of esprit de corps.

How are updsides and downsides traded-off? See the illustration at http://slidesha.re/bqm8Ja

Before teaming up into great alignment of purpose, spirit of unity and sense of urgency though, get an extraordinary yet actionable teaming arrangement getting every neuron-cell and every neuron and every synaptic connection to board the vessel impersonated by your own mind and as per your own brain monolithically. In other words, if you can’t get you mental act together, your execution act will be a mess and even mayhem.

What about how we construe our thinking? Let’s see Ambrose Bierce’s take on it: “…[Brain is,] an apparatus with which we think that we think...” [130]

I will be referring about leadership frequently since there has never been a more opaque time to have abundant lack of leadership. Secondly, people believe that having the leadership traits are only about the “software” (using Jack Welch’s parlance) and not to be fully immersed into actionable, practical science.

The two most important pillars to leadership in my view are (a) Moral and ethical values, and (b) Possession of a vast body of applied science. For instance, I am not interested about speaking of leadership if oriented by “themes” such as “Emotional Intelligence,” “Political Correctness,” and, say, “Ontological Coaching.” Check out the truest futurist ensuing!

By the way, futurism equates to futurology?

It never equates. Futurism is an “...artistic movement originating in Italy around 1910 whose aim was to express the energetic, dynamic, and violent quality of contemporary life, especially as embodied in the motion and force of modern machinery...” Futurology is the “...study or forecasting of potential developments, as in science, technology, and society, using current conditions and trends as a point of departure...” [158], [159]

R. Buckminster Fuller: “...If humanity does not opt for integrity we are through completely. It is absolutely touch and go. Each one of us could make the difference...” [111]

When one has been a manager for global corporations with intensive consumptions of knowledge-based capital, anyone will realize that is folly to speak about said leadership lacking the two pillars I mentioned above.

We will here be needing perennial “extreme make-overs” in the modes we exercise the mind to capture maximum optimums.

Since I will be using metaphors, I wish to establish a clear definition of this lexicon. Metaphors are defined by the American Heritage dictionary as: “…A figure of speech in which a word or phrase that ordinarily designates one thing is used to designate another, thus making an implicit comparison…”

I will use metaphors often in this textbook though, in the final analysis, the entirety of this material will be subjected to great rigor. Speaking of the immense variations of change requires addressing that subject through many angles.

As I quote the exact words (at least that I expect) of a multitude of authors, thinkers, and intellectuals and other people of learning (also trying to offer professional information on the third-person given individual), I quote — in first person — my own words and hence state my own opinions, reflections, ideas, and pondering. Otherwise, they say of each one would only be attributable at all to each specific person in question.

All quotations not otherwise cited are from the interviews conducted by the author or personal communications, as they were sent to the author.

I am not sure, but I believe it was Archimedes the first notorious brain to use graphics. I use eloquent and reflective quotations extensively as if they were pictorials, graphics, illustrations of some other sort, so that I make the maximum appeal into pervasive meditation on the part of the present reader.

I’m trying to get you to discern tangentially in the mean time as you do your discernment and pondering the way you like.

Recalling that this material is about the impact and the points of inflections fostered by many modes of change and to the utter end of spoken-of change, John Seely Brown and Paul Duguid make the following claim: “...Technological and social systems shape each other … technologies — such as gunpowder, the printing press, the railroad, the telegraph and the Internet — can shape society in profound ways. But on the other hand, social systems — in the form of governments, the courts and informal organizations, social movements, professional networks, local communities, market institutions and so forth — shape, moderate and redirect the raw power of technologies...” [56]

For this rate of change, What else are you going to need?

George Horace Lorimer (attributed to): “...You've got to get up every morning with determination if you're going to go to bed with satisfaction...”

As your work through the following pages and if the reader is under a pervasive search of his and her sovereign own (a miracle with its own merits in and by itself), remember that you are on a journey that will take time, commitment, study, research, discipline and perennial self-reflection, and self-pondering. Then you’ll need to execute smartly and in a sustaining smartness and cleverness through the most acid tests of times.

Mind, Evolution and Universe?

As Princeton physicist Freeman Dyson put it: “...Mind, through the long course of biological evolution, has established itself a moving force in our little corner of the universe. Here on this small planet, mind has infiltrated matter and has taken control. It appears to me the tendency of mind to infiltrate and control matter is a law of nature...” [86]

Evolution and change?

Carl Sagan: “...Two billion years ago, our ancestors were microbes; a half-billion years ago, fish; a hundred million years ago, something like mice; ten million years ago, arboreal apes; and a million years ago, proto-humans puzzling the taming of fire. Our evolutionary lineage is marked by mastery of change. IN OUR TIME, THE PACE IS QUICKENING...” [142]

Machines and humans playing the mice-cats hunting game?

Rodney Brooks: “...Our machines will become much more like us, and we will become much more like our machines...” [142]

Was the Universe's birth a matter of “fancy” luck? Definitely! Top-notch American scientists (of eminence) have lavishly proven that “luck” ? — so-called ? — does not exist. I am not afraid to be on that boat only!

Henry Poncaire: “...For him [Camile Flammarion] time would have changed sign [from positive to negative]. History would be turned about, Waterloo would precede Austerlitz … All would seem to him to come out of a sort of chaos in unstable equilibrium. All nature would appear to him delivered over to chance...” [127]

Opportune is, subsequently, to remember Einstein’s words, “...There is nothing more practical than theory...” [111]

If it is going to take time and without desiring to discouraging you, I must unambiguously state that there is no room here, now, there or then for easy “magic solutions.” It is too vast a task for me to encourage or discourage anyone. Nonetheless, getting to work through applied omniscience << http://slidesha.re/omisci >> will render grounded hopes. The more the smart working, the more the grounded hopes.

Which “magic solutions” are those really? People seeking immediate and easy solutions without (a) the depth of theoretical and empirical knowledge and (b) resources are set out to a major self-frustration and disappointment. And they will get these major self-frustrations and self-disappointments without a fail and in an ever-increasing rate of growth until they understand the following: “...You cannot get to a new place with an old map...” [28] To conceive a new map is no minutia effort. In fact, it’s an immense and immensely effort to be unfailing sustain.

Lacking to meet or factually meeting raw realities, as well as elucidating the findings, is a personal journey to the innermost core of each one. You can do something or you can do nothing. This is how democracy operates. Each one has its bearings. Take the pick.

To keep my conscientious awareness heightened and never to raise the wrong expectation, my own Intellectual Manifesto is viewable at http://bit.ly/aBayq4

Allow me now to add another interesting perspective as you will be finding habitually through this textbook. In his book “...The New Ruthless Economy: World and Power in the Digital Age...,” (publisher in March 2005), Simon Head (high-ranking member of the Rothermere American Institute of Oxford) indicates:

Is the Economy under what pressures?

“...Since 1995, the year in which the new economy based on information technology began to boom, the revenues have not been proportional to productivity and, during the last five years, the gap between income and productivity has been dramatic. Between 1995 and 2006 the productivity growth per employee superseded employees’ actual wages in 340%. Between 2001 and 2006, the first six years of George H. Bush’s presidency, this gap further deepened in an alarming 779%....” [58]

Perpetual novelty — a function of dramatic changed change under a multitude of fluxes of convergence — appears entirely, increasingly unleashed from precedent when analyzed from the longest and amplest historic perspective (pursued by an exact-science practitioner), thus creatively disrupting (dragging the FUTURE into this as-of-now PRESENT) through a chain of past-time successions.

How Do We Behave In Front Of Inflicting-Points Change?

“...'...Our surroundings (the context in which we live) define the ease we conduct our daily lives. As human beings, we look for normalcy in our lives. We try to extrapolate the future by looking at the immediate past. We don't like when the rules of the game change...'...Unfortunately for those who don't like change, the context of our lives is in a state of constant rearrangement.... Diane suggests that all of us have something to learn about our interrelationships around the globe: '...If one theme should resonate from September 11th, it is that the lives of our children are desperately dependent upon how children around the world view their own fates...'....” [204]

The Ever-Quickening Pace!

Dr. James Canton, Ph.D. argues: “...If you were to disappear and come back after 90 days, the Net would have doubled, bandwidth would have increased by a third, and there would be a half a dozen innovations you have missed...” [205]

On the pace and mode of contemporary change, Peter Cochrane, BT’s former visionary head of research (subsequently cofounder of The Concept Lab), observes:

“…When we move toward the world of the bit we encounter a new world of multiple dimensions. This world is a network of n-dimensional space, of multiple copies, existence, connectivity, locations and form. Information can be simultaneously distributed or clustered, singular or plural, static or dynamic, living or dead, past or present, real-time or warped, accelerate or delayed…” [201]

The links between historic successions and other preterit sequences and sub-sequences not only are “broken” and most lucid forced against fuzzy-logic discernment and counter-intuitiveness (that of my beloved, yet-in-its-infancy quantum mechanics), but also beginning to get unrelated to the essence, the substance, the depth and scope and tempo, as well as to the veritable and relevant facts.

What precludes you from being lucid as per Twentieth-One Century ?

Arthur Scopenhaur: “...Everyone takes the limits of his own vision for the limits of the world...” [142]

Fuzzy-logic discernment and counter-intuitiveness must take into consideration many pathways among many others, including those by Buddhism.

For instance, Kalu Rinpoche establishes: “...We live in illusion and the appearance of things. There is a reality. We are that reality. When we understand this, we see that we are nothing. And being nothing, we are everything. That is all...” [68]

What is dynamical and what is permanent indeed?

Heraclitus — Greek Philosopher (c.540 — c. 480 BC) stated: “...No man ever steps into the same river twice, for it’s not the same river and he’s not the same men...” [105]

More Buddhist wisdom to gain some perspective about Fuzzy-logic discernment and counter-intuitiveness: “...If we are facing in the right direction, all we have to do is keep on walking...” [71]

The undersigned and the present material’s author indicated: “...I like those predictions (whose driving forces I have first elicited) that run counter to 'conventional wisdom' — so-called —, but which ultimately turned out to be true in practice...” [129]

And a westerner’s view on wisdom. Theodore Roosevelt: “...Nine-tenths of our wisdom consists in being wise timely...” [119]

Reality, Mind and Buddhism by a Westerner’s View!

A citation on Gary Hamel’s Leading The Revolution book: “...Alan Kay tells a wonderful little story about how he came to recognize this deep truth: On the third day of a conference at a Buddhist center, I asked people why they put their palms together several times a day. The Buddhists believe that the world is an illusion, but we have to go along with the illusion for efficiency reasons. When they put their hands together it is a semicolon, an acknowledgment that whatever they may think is going on right now is largely a fabrication of their own mind...” [88]

?Spreading out into the near-by downtown’s suburbs, chiefly the ones at a thousand miles from the outskirts of “central city”!

The undersigned and the present material’s author indicated:? “...Tantalize your tangential pre-cognition and cognition into ever-?metamorphosing ?your attentive and contemplative trans-meditation Zen...” [129]

World and vision?

“...When the world and the mind are both transparent, this is true vision that which doesn’t exist doesn’t exist in relation to that which exists. This is true vision. By means of such vision nothing is seen and nothing is not seen .... The mind and the world are opposites, and vision arises when they meet. When your mind doesn’t stir inside, the world doesn’t arise outside. When the world and mind are both transparent, this is true vision. And such understanding is true understanding...” By Bodhidharma, Indian Zen Buddhist monk who brought Zen from India to China (circa 520 A.D.) [89]

Courage and success by the prominent British premier.

Winston Churchill argued: “...Courage is the capacity to go from failure to failure with increased enthusiasm!...” [111] If we really wish to make a substantial difference, we’re going to need this personal cosmological trait lavishly I am not afraid to assert.

Succeeding in reversal?

Piet Hein: “...The road to wisdom? Well, it’s plain and simple to express. Err and err and err again but less and less and less...” [89]

A distant past and also a distant future, right here?

Edward Fredkin (born 1934): “…A third implication of the concept is that because the vast preponderance of the lifetime of the universe lies in the distant future rather than in the past, the historical achievements of life and mind are meager foreshadowings of the starring role that intelligent life is likely to play in shaping the future of the cosmos. Indeed, this new way of looking at the intimate linkage of life, mind, and the cosmos suggests a novel way of thinking about the ultimate destiny of our destiny of our universe…” [86]

How does a psychologist conceive the past-present-future interrelationship?

Dr. Philip Zimbardo, Ph.D. : “...Consider any decision you had to make recently: Do I keep working or go out to play; take one more drink before driving home; take a chance and cheat on my taxes or an exam; practice safe sex or just do it; resistor gives into temptation? As you contemplate what you will do, you are influenced by a number of factors. For some people, the world is limited to all the forces they perceive in their immediately present situation, their biological urges, their social setting and that which others are doing or urging them to do, and the sensuous appeal of the stimulus itself. Those folks who usually limit their decision-making be referring only to the current circumstances are Present-oriented. Other people making a decision in the same setting downplay the present and search their memories for similar past situations; they recall what they did in the past and how these decisions turned out. These folks are Past-oriented. Finally, a third type of person makes up her or his mind entirely based on imagined future consequences — the costs and benefits — of an action. If anticipated costs outweigh anticipated benefits or gains, they won’t go forward. They only go forward when they expect gains to predominance… The ideal time profile is a balance of being high on the past-positive, moderately high on the present-hedonistic and future, and low on the past-negative and present-fatalistic times perspectives .... In other words, conscientious people regularly think about future consequences before making a decision … I believe present transcendence and future hopefulness are essential components of a successful therapeutic intervention .... Our goal is to help you reclaim yesterday, enjoy today, and master tomorrow. To do so, we’ll give you new ways of seeing and working with your past, present, and future …” [105]

Rowan Gibson in Rethinking the Future observes:

“...For a long time we have known deep down that the future will be different from the past. Every science fiction writer, from Jules Verne to William Gibson, has reminded us of that. But we have stubbornly refused to believe is that the future will be different than we expect it to be. Most of us anticipate ... But why? ... This is a simple question, that has been asked since man first began to ponder. The good news is that we now have answers to this question, thanks to emergence of the complexity science. In fact, we not only gain insights for the why, but also, on how we can gain leverage on such unreliable change...” [201]

Complexity growing more complex in an ever-faster paced world?

Chris Harris contends: “...Yet, it is with these new possibilities that come equally great challenges; and it is important to understand what these new challenges mean ... To begin with, it means greater complexity in terms of the design work and diversity of technologies and skills needed to realize such composite invention. It also means effectively managing this new magnitude of complexity at a faster pace ... It means that the linear business world we have come to know so well, that unfolds in a fairly predictable manner, quickly falls to new markets that form in discontinuities, sometimes unrecognizable patterns; where technologies that appear overnight bleed into unknown applications, then become obsolete as abruptly as they came; where competitors from remote industries that you thought unlikely to enter your market, totally redefine and take over your most valuable sector ... It means that today's events move along so fast they have little bearing on the outcomes of tomorrow; where cumulative and hard-earned experience accounts for less, and where new, quite radical ways of thinking provide for the future ... It means a time in which best practice and procedure have not yet been set or written, where rapid learning and expansive knowledge oversee the rules of the game, and where foresight and imagination become the predominant forces for competition ... And most significant of all, it means that the kinds of interconnection we make between known and unknown ideas become the engine for economic growth, whether for an individual, local enterprise or global institution ... All told, this new era brings with it the utmost sweeping threats, yet the most wide-based opportunities the business world has yet seen...” [201]

DNA, complexity and digital information system?

Edward Fredkin (bio at http://bit.ly/bMVDlb) described his theory in an interview with science writer Robert Wright: “...What I’m saying is that at the most basic level of complexity an information process runs what we think of as physics. At the much higher level of complexity life, DNA — you know, the biochemical functions — are controlled by a digital information system. Then, at another level, our thought processes are basically information processing...” [86]

Universe with a purpose?

Robert Wright (bio at http://bit.ly/azFvZG), in response to Fredkin, puts it: “...Fredkin believes that the universe is very literally a computer and that it is being used by someone, or something, to solve a problem. It sounds like a good news/bad joke: the good news is that our lives have purpose; the bad news is that their purpose is to help some remote hacker pi to nine jillion decimal places...” [86]

The artificial man?

The philosopher Thomas Hobbes (bio at http://bit.ly/5vaI4) offered an uncanny preview of the science of artificial intelligence in his masterpiece Leviathan [description viewable at http://bit.ly/16Qymw] published in 1651: “...Nature (the Art whereby God hath made and governs the World) is by the Art of man, as in many other things, so in this also imitated, that it can make an Artificial Animal. For seeing life is but a motion of Limbs, the beginning whereof is in the principal part within; why we not say that all Automata (Engines that move themselves by springs and wheels as doth a watch) have an artificial life?...” [86]

Is there some sort of highest-order entity regulating us?

David Jay Brown asked a medic “...What is your perspective on the concept of God and how spirituality played a role in your view of medicine?...” Dr. Jacob Teitelbaum, M.D. responded: “…If everything is God, Goddess, Spirit — whether you want to call it — it’s all one. It’s all connected, and that means that all that’s going on is God looking at God’s self. So it’s all simply different perspectives, and that’s a fascinating thing. That means nobody is cut off from God, whether they are atheists or whatever. You don’t have to believe in God for Spirit to love you and be present, so it means that nobody is right and nobody is wrong. It’s all simply different perspectives, which is very freeing, because you don’t have to battle anybody. You just have to do your own thing .... This also allows us to recognize our own connection to spirit, which is very healing, because it allows that energy to flow into us, and allows us to stay whole and connected. So that’s a very powerful thing. I mean, my whole life is about Spirit and about God, or Goddess. To think of God as only a man sounds like an insult to God. It’s pretty limiting because God is everything. It also means that nothing and no one is better or worse than anybody else. And there’s this critical thing that happens, because that’s the touchstone through much of my life — to recognize I am equal of all beings, and no one is lesser than me. That means there’s nobody that I meet that’s better than I am, or that I’m better than them. We’re all different perspectives of God. We’re all equal, and we’re all divine, everybody...” [107]

Who exercises the self’s innermost core is that one into the “group thinking” dudes? Indeed?

Jewish scholar and Rabbi Hillel: “...If I am not for myself, then who will be for me? And if I am only for myself, than what am I? And if not now, when?...” [129]

Taking care of oneself to make the difference?

Descartes: “...I think therefore I am...” [142]

?Which one is the “one,” really?

The undersigned and the present material’s author indicated:? “...I’m not one, but just my own one-and-only one, which is within the ‘I’ of the present one. Not being the solely one or otherwise, it is prudent to assert that every ’ONE’ is beyond crucial, is she or he not? ?In my case and at any rate, I am not a consultancy adviser, but an omniscience-driven think-tank researcher, analyst, consultant, strategist and manger...” [129]

?You become, say, in what? But have you become already?

The undersigned and the present material’s author indicated:? “...If I’m not ‘I,’ Who am I? Am I the breathing ‘I’? Am I the walking ‘I’? Am I what gets eaten by ‘I’? Am I what gets thought by ‘I’? Am I what gets written by ‘I’? Am I what gets studied by ‘I’? Am I what gets researched by ‘I’? Am I what gets the stalemate air that is precluded by and into the ‘I’? Am I what gets seen by ‘I’? Am I what gets thought by ‘I’? Am I what gets gleaned by ‘I’? My ‘I’ is at immense rest since it knows its own ‘I’ in excelsis!...” [129]

Space, evolution and universe?

Cosmologist Frank Tipler (bio at http://bit.ly/cmsdLs) has bluntly stated: “...Almost all of space and time lies in the future. By focusing attention only on the past and present, science has ignored almost all of reality, it is about time science decided to study the future evolution of the universe...” [86]

History and approaching a singularity?

Information theorist John von Nuemann (bio at http://bit.ly/2zfuto) in the 1950s: “…The ever accelerating progress of technology … gives the appearance of approaching some essential singularity in the history of the race beyond which human affairs, as we known them, could not continue...” [86]

Locating the Singularity’s domicile?

Michael Anissimov: “…When the first transhuman intelligence is created and launches itself into recursive self-improvement, a fundamental discontinuity is likely to occur, the likes of which I can’t even begin to predict...” [142]

Ray Kurzweil and the Staggering Secret? (2010)

“…That was Kurzweil's real secret, and back in 1965 nobody guessed it. Maybe not even him, not yet. But now, 46 years later, Kurzweil believes that we're approaching a moment when COMPUTERS WILL BECOME INTELLIGENT, AND NOT JUST INTELLIGENT BUT MORE INTELLIGENT THAN HUMANS. WHEN THAT HAPPENS, HUMANITY — OUR BODIES, OUR MINDS, OUR CIVILIZATION — WILL BE COMPLETELY AND IRREVERSIBLY TRANSFORMED. He (Ray Kurzweil) believes that THIS MOMENT IS NOT ONLY INEVITABLE BUT IMMINENT. ACCORDING TO HIS CALCULATIONS, THE END OF HUMAN CIVILIZATION AS WE KNOW IT IS ABOUT 35 YEARS AWAY…” [213]

What should we find out — with maximum rigor — in history?

William Churchill: “...The further backward you look, the further forward you can see...” [104]

The geometrically non-linear human progress!

Ray Kurzweil (bio at http://bit.ly/MIMkN), in understanding the future of evolution, indicates: “...Von Neumann makes two important observations here: acceleration and singularity. The first idea is that human progress is exponential … rather than linear .... The second is that exponential growth is seductive, starting out slowly and virtually in-noticeably, but beyond the knee of the curve it turns explosive and profoundly transformative. The intelligence that will emerge [post-Singularity] will continue to represent the human civilization. In other words, future machines will be human, even if they are not biological. This will be the next step in evolution, the next high-level paradigm shift .... Most of the intelligence of our civilization will ultimately be nonbiological. By the end of this century, it will be trillions of trillions of times more powerful than [un-enhanced] human intelligence...” [86]

If we fail to commit to development and research of proper science and technology are we enslaving ourselves?

“...A bitter controversy concerning whether humanity should build godlike massively intelligent machines .... [Dr. Kevin Warwick, Ph.D. literally argues:] humanity will have to confront the prospect of being replaced by a new dominant species, namely, ultra intelligent robots controlled by ultra intelligent artificial brains … ‘Cyborgians’ are people who look to technically upgrade their bodies to become ‘cyborgs,’ i.e. part machine, part human … I hope that by enhancing ourselves, we humans can have our cake and eat it too by achieving the dream of attaining the godlike abilities that Hugo [de Garis, Ph.D.] talks about by converting ourselves … without having to pay the cost of a major war. In a sense I am looking at a sort of compromise ? rather than having ultra intelligent artificial brains acting against humanity, we join with them .... I sincerely hope it will not come to this sort of end game in the real world. Hugo’s scenario of a major war late this century, in which billions of people die, due to the use of advanced 21st century weaponry, is extremely depressing, and I firmly hope he is wrong, dead wrong, for the sake of humanity’s (and cyborgian) survival .... Hugo’s reasoning is frighteningly persuasive, even though my viscera reject what he is saying. The fact that he is pioneering the new field of ‘artificial brains’ only increases the credibility of his vision. If anyone in the world is in a good position to predict the future impact of advanced artificial brains on humanity, it must be Hugo .... If many decades into the future, Hugo is proven to be correct in saying that ‘the species dominance issue will dominate our global politics this century,’ then he will have become one of the major thinkers of the 21st century. With no offense to Hugo, I hope that he will be shown to have been wrong, to be shown to have exaggerated, and overreacted; because if not, the fate that he is suggesting will befall our grandchildren, is too horrible to grasp fully for all humanity, what he would call ‘gigadeath!’…” [179]

What about the Technology 25 Years Hence?

New York Times, as of December 28, 2010, pertaining to Ray Kurzweil’s arguments: “...If you plot the basic measures of the price to performance and capacity of information technologies (for example, computer instructions per second per constant dollar, bits of memory per dollar, or the total number of bits being moved around over the Internet), they follow remarkably smooth — and foreseeable — trajectories. This observation goes well beyond Moore’s Law (which says you can place twice as many transistors on an integrated circuit every two years); in the case of computation, it goes back to the 1890 American census, long before Gordon Moore was even born .... What’s predictable is that these measures grow exponentially, not linearly, though our intuition about the future is linear, which is hard-wired in our brains. This makes a remarkable difference. Thirty steps linearly gets you to 30, whereas 30 steps exponentially (2, 4, 8, 16. . .) gets you to a billion .... And it’s not just electronics and communications that follow this exponential course. It applies as well to health, medicine and its related field of biology. The Human Genome Project, for instance, saw the amount of genetic sequencing double and the cost of sequencing per base pair come down by half each year .... A computer that fit inside a building when I was a student now fits in my pocket, and is a thousand times more powerful despite being a million times less expensive .... In another quarter century, that capability will fit inside a red blood cell and will again be a billion times more powerful per dollar...” [185]

From shorthand writing to conceiving magnificent clones in wet labs?

Juan Enriquez: “...Your computer runs on a code on ‘1’ and ‘0’s. If you change the order and number of these 1s and 0s … By tapping the keyboard … You capitalize a letter, change a sentence, send an e-mail, transmit a photographic or music. The floppy disk is simply the container for these 1s and 0s. But it is reading and rewriting the code inside that drives change .... As of 1995, we began to read the full gene sequence of … Bacteria, insects, plants, animals, humans. It is written in a four-letter code (A, T, C, G) … If you change this code, just as if you change the code in a floppy disk or on a CD … You change the message, the product, the outcome...” [163]

Cambrian explosion and the future?

James N. Gardner: “...It should never be clear that the future will differ radically from the past; it will be at least different as the radically new world of biological complexity and diversity ushered in the Cambrian Explosion was from the preceding era .... The central point is that collateral advances in sciences seemingly far removed from cosmology can help dissipate the intellectual limitations imposed by common sense and naïve human intuition. And, in an uncanny reprise of the Lyell/Darwin intellectual synergy, it is a realization of the vastness of time and history that gives rise to the crucial insight. Only in this instance, the vastness of which I speak is the vastness of future time and future history...” [86]

Which common sense is that? Does it have the gold seal by Einstein?

Marvin Minsky: “...Common sense is not a simple thing [given that is not a definition but a truth-seeking process]. Instead, it is an immense society of hard-earned practical ideas ? of multitudes of life-learned rules and exceptions, dispositions and tendencies, balances and checks...” [142]

Past, future, and baby universes?

University of Chicago cosmologist Sean Carroll: “...The [observed] arrow of time in our [observed] universe is puzzling because the fundamental laws of physics themselves are symmetric and don’t seem to discriminate between the past and future .... In our patch of the cosmos, time just so happens to be moving forward because of its initial low entropy, but there are others where this is not the case. The far past and the far future are filled with these other baby universes, and they would each think that the other had its arrow of time backwards. Time’s arrow isn’t a basic aspect of the universe as a whole, just a hallmark of the little bit we see...” [86]

The Largest Book! Which one is it? Is it the largest book or one of the sub-largest books?

Galileo ascertained: “...Philosophy is written in this grand book — I mean the Universe — which stands continually open to our gaze. But the book cannot be understood unless one first learns to comprehend the language and read the characters in which it is written...” [86]

Many problems of this “humankind” — so-called — are the unprecedented amount of existential risks that it bestows upon itself unknowingly?

Columbia University President (circa 1820), on “Acting Like a Human”:

“...That this toil of pure intelligence …
can possibly be performed by an unconscious machine
is a proposition which is received with incredulity...” [104]

Counter-intuitiveness at its best!

Niels Bohr, Nobel Prize-winning physicist: “...The opposite of a false statement is a correct statement. The opposite of a profound truth may well be another profound truth...” [89]

Counter-seeing to discover?

Andre Gide signaled (1869 - 1951): “...Man cannot discover new oceans unless he has the courage to lose sight of the shore...” [111]

The influence to bias understanding?

Upton Sinclair: “...It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it...” [111]

How does history relate to consciousness?

Jacob Burckhardt, attributed to, (1818 – 1897): “...History is nature’s disruption caused by the awakening of consciousness...”

Who is your teacher that is not outside of your own self?

Brian Tracy: “...No one lives long enough to learn everything they need to learn starting from scratch. To be successful, we absolutely, positively have to find people who have already paid the price to learn the things that we need to learn to achieve our goals...” [111]

Relatives and absolutes?

Sir Winston Churchill: “...The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close. In its place, we are entering a period of consequences...” [111]

What is the fundamental practical methodology towards root motivations under systemic and systematic yet empirical approach as it was observed by William Hazlitt?

“…Science is the desire to know the causes…” [210]

It's impossible to run enterprises without the grounds and basis to apply in action!

Einstein: “...Our theories determine what we measure...” [116]

Improbabilities working on behalf of the learned?

Louis Pasteur: “Chance favors the prepared mind.” [111]

Science and spirituality?

Albert Einstein proclaimed: “...I hold that the cosmic religious feeling is the strongest motive in fostering scientific research...” [111]

You’re your own leader?

Mother Teresa: “...Do not wait for leaders; do it alone, person to person...” [111]

From happiness to useful service?

Henry Ford (1863 - 1947): “…Wealth, like happiness, is never attained when sought after directly. It comes as a by-product of providing a useful service...” [111]

Is that a reasonable optimistic person?

Dr. Kathleen Jennison Goonan, M.D. established: “…Yesterday’s options are gone...” [91] Fortunately or unfortunately, graciously or disgracefully, this is now (24/7/365) the name of the game.

A Wealth Of Future, Whether You Board It Or Not?

Alvin Toffler points out: “...The future is being colonized all the time by people who have the resources, who do spend time thinking about it, planning for it and trying to shape it in their direction...” [206]

Dimensional minds?

Oliver Wendell Holmes offers perspective: “…A mind, once stretched by a new idea, never regains its original dimensions…” [111]

Credit and predictions?

Louis V Gerstner, Jr. Former CEO, IBM observed [143]: “...No credit can be given for predicting rain — only for building arks...” [111]

Knowing Not Knowing?

Donald Rumsfeld established: “...As we know, there are known knowns. There are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns. That is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns, the ones we don’t know we don’t know...” [111]

Building a bridge?

Author Unknown: “..If opportunity doesn’t knock, build a door [you create pre-conditions for and by you]...” [111]

Perpetually upping the mind?

Albert Einstein sentenced: “...The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of thinking we were at when we created them...” [153]

How do you distribute modernity?

William Gibson: “…The FUTURE is already here; it’s just not evenly distributed…” [111]

Orders misunderstood?

Henry Miller declared: “...Confusion is a word we have invented for an order which is not [yet] understood...” [111]

Progress and crime?

Albert Einstein commented: “...Technological progress is like an ax in the hands of a pathological criminal...” [111]

What stays in place?

Christian Bovee: “...When all else is lost, the future still remains...” [71]

Faith place in what time frame?

Ruth Benedict: “...Our faith in the present dies out long before our faith in the future...” [71]

Fearing what?

Thomas Fuller reasons: “...He that fears the future may enjoy the present...” [71]

Calling the Future what?

Tennessee Williams: “...The future is called ‘perhaps,’ which is the only possible thing to call the future. And the important thing is not to allow that to scare you...” [71]

Having or not having?

James Petersen: “If you afraid for your future, you don’t have a present.” [71]

Which evil is the least worst?

Francesco Guicciardini: “To relinquish a present good through apprehension of a future evil is in most instances unwise … from a fear which may afterward turn out groundless, you lost the good that lay within your grasp.” [71]

Handy futures?

Thomas E. Dewey: “We need not be afraid of the future, for the future will be in our hands.” [71]

Fearing change?

E. H. Harriman: “It is never safe to look into the future with eyes of fear.” [71]

Anxious and miserable?

Marcus Annaes Seneca: “The mind that is anxious about the future is miserable.” [71]

A heart and a fear?

Henry Wadsworth Longfellow: “Go forth to meet the shadowy Future without fear and with a manly heart.” [71]

Is the mind wrongly operated?

John Locke: “Fear is an uneasiness of the mind, upon the thought of a future evil likely to befall us.” [71]

Uncertainties over certainty?
William Sloane Coffin: “I’m deglitched that the future is unsure. That’s the way it should be.” [71]

What is the objective?

Clinical leader Dr. Kathleen Jennison Goonan, M.D.: “The goal here [in the beginning of the third millennium] is to understand the enablers [the driving forces out of which some futurists comfortably depict ‘trends’ — so-called —] for change [potential upsides] as well as the barriers [imminent downsides].” [91]

On what it means and what it does not mean the term “driving forces,” you might want to view the ensuing presentation, “Trends Vs. Driving Forces, A Clarity-Driven Pathway Before A Universal Management and Scientific Blunder!”

Here it is also addressed the UNIVERSAL BLUNDER by scientists and managers using the terms “trends” and “driving forces” as equal ones. Read it online at http://bit.ly/Trends-Vs-Driving-Forces

Is the future meant to be bold?

Alfred North Whitehead: “It is the business of the future to be dangerous.” [71]

What purpose to set out for?

Robert M. Pirsig: “To live only for some future goal is shallow. It’s the sides of the mountain that sustain life, not the top.” [71]

The advantageous mind?

Samuel Johnson: “Present opportunities are neglected, and attainable good is slighted, by minds busied in extensive ranges and intent upon future advantages.” [71]

The mind-hand connection?

B. C. Forbes: “Our future and our fate lie in our wills more than in our hands, for our hands are but the instruments of our wills.” [71]

Who determines what? Is he / she the ignoramus (also known as simpleton)? There are ignoramuses and simpletons — by virtue of emphatic own desires — in both genders.

Determining the future?

Gerald Jampolsky: “No way exists in the present to accurately determine the future effect of the least of our actions.” [71]

Are you recalling the future?

Corrie ten Boom: “Memories are the key not to the past, but to the future.” [71]

Aching lessons to learn?

Hugh White: “When you make a mistake, don’t look back at it long. Take the reason of the thing into your mind, and then look forward. Mistakes are lessons of wisdom. The past cannot be changed. The future is yet in your power.” [71]

Every facet of known life is changing so much that it is believed that Mr. Bill Gates is concerned about “cloud computing” while — in parallel (concurrently) — some people speak to tap into a pent-up market based on the “post-Microsoft world.” Those are they sayings in computronium’ and multiverse’s surroundings. [101]

Imaginary Present and a Fabricated Future?

“…The part of Eternity with some small fraction of which we have a slight and regrettable acquaintance. A moving line called the Present parts it from an imaginary period known as the Future. These two grand divisions of Eternity, of which the one is continually effacing the other, are entirely unlike. The one is dark with sorrow and disappointment, the other bright with prosperity and joy .... Yet the Past is the Future of yesterday, the Future is the Past of to-morrow. They are one — the knowledge and the dream...” [72]

A fightable time?

William E. Gladstone (1809 — 1898): “…You cannot fight against the future. Time is on our side...” [72]

What are you inventing?

Alan Kay designates (1940 - ): “…The best way to predict the future is to invent it...” [72]

How far can ever-progressing and ever-diverting changed changes take us?

Fyodor Dostoevsky (1821-1881, Russian novelist) describes: “…But dost thou know what will be tomorrow?...” [168]

Change to change what or not to be changed into which?

Milan Kundera (1929 - ) pronounces: “…The only reason people want to be masters of the future is to change the past…” [72]

Dreaming progress and modernity?

Eleanor Roosevelt utters: “…The future belongs to those who believe in the beauty of their dreams...” [73]

De-learning for Life?

Alvin Toffler indicates: “…In the world of the future, the new illiterate will be the person who has not learned to learn…” [73]

Guiding to which place?

Albert Einstein established: “... Teachers are messengers from the past and an escort to the future ...” [73]

Geography allocated by times?

Alison Lurie (1926 - ) stated: “…As one went to Europe to see the living past, so one must visit Southern California to see the future…” [74]

History and the train?

Dwight David Eisenhower (1890 — 1969): “…Neither a wise man nor a brave man lies down on the tracks of history to wait for the train of the future to run over him…” [75]

Imprudence?

Tacitus observed: “…Light-minded men are improvident of the future ... ” [76]

Youth and future?

Franklyn Delano Roosevelt: “We cannot always build the future for our youth, but we can build our youth for the future.” [77]

Forgiveness and future?

Paul Boese: “Forgiveness does not change the past, but it does enlarge the future.” [77]

Pencil your map?

Jon Bon Jovi: “Map out your future, but do it in pencil.” [77]

Is everyone for quantitative analysis?

Dr. Vernon Grose, D.Sc.: “The desirable use for numbers is long. Yet very few on that list are feasible. ANYTHING INVOLVING HUMAN BEHAVIOR IS SUFFICIENTLY COMPLEX THAT A DISCRETE NUMBER CANNOT BE TIED TO IT.” [99]

Future and responsibility?

George Bernard Shaw: “We are made wise not by the recollection of our past, but by the responsibility for our future.” [77]

Future and humankind?

Richard P. Feynman: “We are at the very beginning of time for the human race. It is not unreasonable that we grapple with problems. But there are tens of thousands of years in the future. Our responsibility is to do what we can, learn what we can, improve the solutions, and pass them on.” [121]

Herman Kahn: “Projecting a persuasive image of a desirable and practical future is extremely important to high morale, to dynamism, to consensus, and in general to help the wheels of society turn smoothly.” [122]

Time and definitions?

Charles Caleb Colton: “Time is the most indefinable yet paradoxical of things; the past is gone, the future is not to come, and the present becomes the past even while we attempt to define it, and, like the flash of lightning, at once exists and expires.” [77]

CITIZENS MUST COME TOGETHER ON THIS CAUSE UNEQUIVOCALLY AND WITH THE GREATEST SENSE OF URGENCY, DILIGENT URGENCY OF EPIC PROPORTIONS.

People must become mind-prepared and ever-ready as per my firmest conviction in case they agree upon countering some downside consequences from massive change and upping further some upside facets of said massive change. Can an entire civilization possess “free will in group”? Really?

One of the most important French-Canadian premiers, to this end, makes an awesome quotation. Pierre Trudeau (1919 — 2000): “…The twentieth century really belongs to those who will build it…. The future can be promised to no one...” [70]

THIS IS, PERHAPS, THE REAL DEAL. It’s time (as it seems to me after deeply researching the subject for almost 30 years), through sprits de corps-based talented teams of “rivals,” to institute the systemic, systematic, before-the facts manner, holistic stewardship (thus exercising a global management perspective) of UPSIDE AND DOWNSIDE RISKS MANAGEMENT via epidemiological thinking à la Gestalt with the omniscience vista << http://slidesha.re/omisci >>.

Albert Einstein hence indicates: “...It's not that I'm so smart, it's just that I stay with problems longer...” [61]

THE MORE THE SO-CALLED CRISES HAPPEN, THE MORE THE EMPIRICAL-AND-OTHERWISE PROGRESSIONS OF APPLIED “STATES OF THE ART” WILL REGISTER WITHOUT A FAIL, BOTH IN THE FOREGROUND AND BACKGROUND, AS WELL AS UBIQUITOUSLY. “UBIQUITOUSLY” NOW EQUATES TO THE ENTIRETY OF THE UNIVERSE, LITERALLY.

The word “Ubiquitous” here might mean any dynamic contexts between the foreground and the background (alluded above). There will be tension exercised thereby. The question is, Will that be “creative tension” at all?

What might the human race get in exchange while implementing all-encompassing MANAGEMENT (all chapters thoroughly) via a compound, all-solutions toolkit, routed with the envisioning and instituting of the optimal totality-of-knowledge? How?

By operating the mind and the brains-driven business “battlefield” (just a stratum among zillion strata) with THE COMBINED, INDUSTRIOUS ASSISTANCE OF OMNISCIENCE, PANSOPHY, POLYMATH, ALL-KNOWINGNESS, AND PANTOLOGY.

To access to more in on the terminology used in this paragraph, go to the Omniscience section for a thorough actionable description. Omniscience at << http://slidesha.re/omisci >>.

If we discipline ourselves, What can we get in return?

The undersigned and the present material’s author indicated: “There are great hazards by Nature. There are also great hazards that are man-made. The majority of these ones impacts Nature itself. Through science, technology and management (all chapters), the practitioner can transform downsides and upsides into greater benefits, regardless if hazards are presented by Nature and humans. A seemingly 'good safe execution' can become easily compound into a greater perilous situation. A lack of 'optimum safe execution' can become easily compound into a greater perilous situation. A seemingly 'sub-optimum safe execution' can become easily compound into a greater perilous situation. These hazards can be sustainably transformed into benefits through the perennial application of the maximum within the optimum of thoroughly comprehensive risk management.” [129]

We can still exercise many civil rights before some transbiologicals and robots take over as long as the “caveat” (Disruptional Singularity?) here described does not take precedence in the first place. Will you stay as an innocent and naïve a “by stander” for how long in order to further empowering the own state of increasing powerless quality and condition (that of you)?

What are we?

William Shakespeare: “…We know what we are, but know not what we may be...” [142]

As it was communicated to TIME in 2010, What is the time-line predicted for a maximum technological convergence, emergence, and technological singularity?

“... AT 2045. IN THAT YEAR, HE ESTIMATES, GIVEN THE VAST INCREASES IN COMPUTING POWER AND THE VAST REDUCTIONS IN THE COST OF SAME, THE QUANTITY OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE CREATED WILL BE ABOUT A BILLION TIMES THE SUM OF ALL THE HUMAN INTELLIGENCE THAT EXISTS TODAY...” [213]

Machines harnessing the monopoly of pervasive intelligence?

Irving John Good: “…Let an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a machine that can surpass all the intellectual activities of any man however clever. Since the design of machines is one of these intellectual activities, an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines; there would then unquestionably be an ‘intelligence explosion,’ and the intelligence of man would be left far behind. Thus the first ultraintelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make…” [142]

Will humans be subjects to monarchical bots?

Peter Menzel and Faith D’Aluisio: “…Around the world, scientists and engineers are participating in a high-stakes race to build the first intelligent robot. Many robots already exist ? automobile factories are full of them. But the new generation of robots will be something else: smart machines that act ever more like living creatures .... What will happen then? With our prosthetic limbs, titanium hips, and artificial eyes, we are already beginning to resemble our machines. And when we implant chips in our bodies to connect ourselves directly to computers, the likeness will become only more pronounced. Science fiction will have become science fact .... Meanwhile ? and equally important ? our machines are beginning to resemble us. Robotic spiders, crabs, geckos, and dogs are already spilling from the laboratories. The next steps are to re-create Homo sapiens itself and then go beyond. Robots can already walk, talk, and dance; they can react to human facial expressions and obey verbal commands. When scientists go on to create fully autonomous robots with greater intelligence than human beings, will they be our partners or our rivals? Will it be a simply a robotic revolution or a true extension of evolution? Could machines and humankind meld into a single species?Robo sapiens?...” [164]

Either through flesh or silicon intelligence will be immensely augmented, surpassing human intelligence?

"...Take the question of whether computers can replicate the biochemical complexity of an organic brain. Kurzweil yields no ground there whatsoever. HE DOES NOT SEE ANY FUNDAMENTAL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FLESH AND SILICON THAT WOULD PREVENT THE LATTER FROM THINKING. He defies biologists to come up with a neurological mechanism that could not be modeled or at least matched in power and flexibility by software running on a computer. He refuses to fall on his knees before the mystery of the human brain. 'Generally speaking,' he says, 'the core of a disagreement I'll have with a critic is, they'll say, Oh, Kurzweil is underestimating the complexity of reverse-engineering of the human brain or the complexity of biology. But I don't believe I'm underestimating the challenge. I THINK THEY'RE UNDERESTIMATING THE POWER OF EXPONENTIAL GROWTH.'..." [213]

For those seeking that — regardless of complexity — linking points between machines and humans, an English mathematician has a word of reflection.

Alan Turing (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allan_Turing ): “...A computer would deserve to be called intelligent if it could deceive a human into believing that it was human...” [100]

What is the good news, if attention is indeed paid to world-class, “cross-pollinated and cross-referenced research” literature driven by scientific inquiry, research, and invention, as well as by an obstinate search of ultimate truth?

The current civilization can increase UPSIDE RISKS (benefits) and simultaneously mitigate and terminate and modulate DOWNSIDE RISKS (disruptions), some existential and others not. Incidentally, one situation that does compound heavily (into terra incognita) is that of risks.

CLEARLY, EVERYONE ON EARTH MUST WORK UNDER THE ROGUE RULING OF THE ULTIMATE. Upside and downside risks are promoted by deeds of humans and acts of Nature. Many times the human lack of countering the risks by the acts of Nature becomes even more critical.

Risks — upside and downside ones — are the result of a continuum by “changed changes” points of inflection marshaled through a multitude of fluxes and flows. By the way, there is a plethora of Risk Management’s “countermeasures” with an ugly existential problem.

Those “countermeasures” are designed through linear minds in a world plagued of hyper-exponential geometrical discontinuities. It’s worth noting that since there are degrees of risk, there are degrees of safety.”

Diversity, by the way, when properly integrated and aligned (alignment of human and materiel resources), begets breakthrough innovation.

QUESTION: WHICH PATH / ROUTE WILL THE PROFESSIONAL, BY-OWN-DESIRE IGNORANT, LAZY, MISTAKEN, IGNOMINIOUS, INDOLENT, AND CORRUPTED ONES TAKE? REMEMBER, “ONE CANNOT GET TO A NEW PLACE WITH AN OLD MAP.”

Just might need a GPS and SAT-phone with an Internet hot-swappable connector. The supine ignoramuses (also known as simpletons) are savants in picking to avoid and downplay every form of reality.

They will be calling names the “reality facer.” The finest disqualification would be the calling him and her negativists and pessimistics. The finest disqualification would be the calling him and her negativists and pessimistic.

I saw an interview by a survivor of the Holocaust. She clearly stated that being immensely pessimistic saved the lives of those sentenced to death while the optimistic ones were burned in man-made Hell without a fail.

In speaking of your personal capital, I am exactly referring to the one held and treasured in your brain while the entirety of other outstanding sub-systems (such as heart, lungs, kidneys, liver) operate exactly as the life-supportive apparatuses.

Anyway, “THE EMPIRES OF THE FUTURE ARE THE EMPIRES OR «MONARCHICAL STRATA» OF THE MIND” (Churchill). [111]

Can the British statesman’s assertion became underpinned?

African proverb: “...Tomorrow belongs to the people who prepare for it...” [180]

Has the fluid impact of change been understood by the establishment (so-called)?

“… There was a new complex future emerging ? an extreme future of disruptions, risks, threats, and perhaps, new opportunities ? that no one, not even our leaders, fully understood ...” [182]

HOW HAVE THE READER EXERCISED RADIANT AND PERVASIVE MIND EXPANSION LATELY, LATELY TOWARDS FOREVER AND EVER?

The Human Race has always longed for progress, ultimately upping its living standards for centuries, while ignoring the concomitant daring sequels, responsibilities and liabilities. You engage in mind expansion seriously and sustainably to extend and expand your wise and clever executions.

Incidentally, this is not the taken-for-granted “Society Of Knowledge” (that also embraces the “infotech economy”) for free (that is exactly to say that it is not gratuitous at all). It is especially expensive, since one must mortgage their intellectual capital endlessly and to the utmost and for good, every second and for Life.

Luckily, I did not give birth to hominids very much to my fortune and relief, nor consider myself the supreme intelligence in the universe (let’s just abide by facts and figures and preter-naturalist thinking, as an amicable unasked suggestion); Primates (including pre-humans and current humans) were occupying the land and wandering around, intrigued by copious wonders.

A mind plus A body plus an oppositional finger (thumb) plus a rock can equate to a great deal of fine and terrible weaponized artifacts.

In beyond stupidity and after over four billion of evolution, we humans cannot live without exercising our mind in the appalling linear world as we face a world of maximum non-linearity and multi-bumping by a multitude of discontinuous forces, forces that ever and ever growing more addicted to discontinuity.

Those, today, gain critical mass easily when the 7-billion souls wish to breathe and make a living and enjoy some world-class life standards, literally “de luxe.” The adage, “one thing at the time” will NOW be replaced by “A PLENTIFUL, FOREVER FLUIDLY ONGOING CLUSTER / BUNCH OF DRAMATIC THINGS IN REAL TIME AND ALL OF THE REAL-TIME TIME.”

We have been called to revolt and act upon many integrated techniques and methods and practices compatible with a technocratic revolution by the humane that cannot rid his / her indispensable mind preparedness. But to get the maximum output, the musical must be choreographed and, above all, acted based on sprits de corps’ unanimity.

In the mean time we are having tons of fun by showing off our collective un-preparedness until an “extrasolar typhoon,” sort of speak, hits next onto an ensuing point of inflection in cosmos.

Only you make your own: conclusions, ideas, plans, findings, professional/organizational ethos and points of view. If your ethos, zeitgeist perception and Weltanschauungs need or not radical upgrading, these will only be solved or not by you (being in itself in a problem or blessing before you and of your sole concern), as well as by the accompanying circumstances (pre-conditions and conditions) that knowingly or unknowingly you bestow upon yourself.

What are we going to do with our customary system of belief, ethos and Weltanschauung?

Abraham Lincoln (1809 – 1865, 16th President of the U.S.) pointed out: “…The dogmas of the quiet past are inadequate to the stormy present...” [153]

The ultimate objective is for the reader (if he / she is by his / her own will in fact reading) to access insights to ask and work (for and by himself and herself) through each one’s own conclusions, thus coping better with the challenges of the Third Millennium. Trust no one, though you just might attempt to trust you?

« CHAPTER 1 »
PROLOGUE

Is the future a function of the present or is the present a function of the future? What do present and future mean in practicality regarding business, profession, education, politics (including most universal realpolitik geopolitics), society (understanding the granularity of details ingrained in matter-of-fact demographics), industry, markets, as well as in regards to emerging science and technology?

In this sense, George Orwell (1903 - 1950) indicated: “…Who controls the past controls the future. Who controls the present controls the past...” [69] And David Hume (1711 — 1776) likewise stated: “The supposition that the future resembles the past, is not founded on arguments of any kind, but is derived entirely from habit.” [69]

When we speak about time compartmentalization (such as Future, Present and Past) are we honoring the instituted approach by Dr. Albert Einstein? Since time is never dislocated from “mass” and “energy,” Are we, in pronouncing these profound dynamic concepts, allocating correlative “volumes” of (a) Mass and (b) Energy for the times compartmentalized and termed: Future, Present and Past? We aren’t, Are we?

Why are we “frustrated” when we get strategically surprised beyond devastation and mayhem by crystallized “disruption potentials” turned into palpable nightmares if we are failing to do our solely own homework we dislike but we need to survive so dearly?

Living and having lots of fun by superfluous modus vivendi will secure the modus operandi through Apocalypses. We always have the chance to counter several hazards but we must come together as a global society. Don't worry about the Universe; it'll go in its business-as-usual mode untouchably and invariably.

Alvin Toffler offers some insight: “The FUTURE always comes too fast and in the wrong order [expected by the great majority of mindful or absent/minded ‘incumbents’].” [17] The problem is that many incumbents feel so un-incumbent though at a later onerous price.

In a continuous dialogue about massive change, Toffler adds:

Alvin Toffler (1928 - ): “…‘Future Shock’ … the shattering stress and disorientation that we induce in individuals by subjecting them to too much change in too short a time … The dizzying disorientation brought on by premature arrival of the future .... ” [17]

Why is this FUTURE different to others? Why is change so pervasive, massive, ubiquitous and frenzy? Why is this ever-changing rate of change entailing difference and newness and what are the respective consequences and sequels unavoidably affecting our lives?

What are the imperatives we must superlative micro- and macro-manage to cope to sustainably and sufficiently prevail as a HUMAN RACE?

How can we gain a vantage position and benefit from such futures and changes? How can we “upside” strategic perils along the times to come while simultaneously “downside” eventual opportunities, thus combining both “outputted” advents into a maximum optimum adaptation?

Why will this FUTURE unveil the ill and flawed considerations in greatly hidden, misunderstood and largely “socially engineered” fallacies, assumptions, conventions, beliefs and misconceptions?

All of this actually going at a rate of staggering universal velocity to the least extent (both geographically and demographically), while DARPA (The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency is an agency of the United States Department of Defense responsible for the development of new technology for use by the military) greatly to my innermost gusto and own entertainment is stubbornly driven to “loving” defying (defiance) and disrupting (disruption) in “empirical,” yet “rampant” labs to “counter” and prove “wrong” so-called “immutable” classic laws of physics every day, literally.

DARPA, the entity that spinned off an agency termed “NASA” and created glorious Internet, exhibits a most lucid maxim: “If you’re not failing frequently, you are not succeeding enough.”

Must we subject ourselves to the most heterodox conventions in order to prevail?

Alexis de Tocqueville: “Events can move from the impossible to the inevitable without ever stopping at the probable.” [181]

Albert Einstein supporting DARPA’s motion indicates: “...If at first an idea does not sound absurd, then there is no hope for it...” [167]

If thirty years ago DARPA, Los Alamos National Laboratories, NASA, National Foundation of Science et al. had been commissioned with the invention of massive and abundant “green energy,” we could all now protect much better our environment (and possibly had reduced the formation of the climate global crisis), as well as enjoying plentiful sources of reliable energy.

How could this have been achieved then? By appointing an initiative within the tradition of the Manhattan Project, the Apollo Program and the Genome project.

As civilizations we have the right to make extreme blunders as well as to be held liable (knowingly or not) for the inherent consequences and sequels. Isn’t there the national security of every country threatened now?

Can we seriously and professionally (that is, without deceiving) speak of “success appropriating” WITHOUT STRONGLY REVIEWING FAILURES AND, ABOVE ALL, ADDRESSING THE NANO-GRANULARITY OF YOUR RIVALS COMPREHENSIVELY AND IN ADVANCE? Indeed?

Why don’t we learn lessons of wisdom by third parties? Is it because we are too busy in trying to figure out self-esteems “issues” which are efficacious in clouding our minds?

What are the new high-tech deities in the “warped passages” block? Is this the FUTURE we have chosen not to start creatively imagining to the fullest in the PRESENT early on? The FUTURE is that unimpeachable real thing, Isn't it?

Many people have huge difficulty understanding time progression and the strategic surprises that said progression fosters sometimes beyond creative imagination. Human rights, as well, might easily undergo retrogression with the incessant progression of time anyway, believe it or not!

It is attributed to Jeff Immelt, GE’s current CEO, the following: “…post 9/11 is a different world…” [42] This tragic milestone alone will play through times in forceful manners up to actual time horizons.

Reversing or smartly modulating the consequences will take a gargantuan effort by every constituent in Earth’s civilization, whether hungry or fulfilled, whether thirsty or satisfied, whether sophisticated, educated or illiterate, whether old or young.

I really hope that those not believing such a claim to make a thorough understanding quickly. This material is bound to helping in that direction and ipso facto offering unique and unprecedented insights.

Subsequently, in today’s world, timidity and fear are serious competitive liabilities. Coming times, upcoming times, forthcoming times, future times will prove themselves ruthless in the continuum known as PRESENT without a fail. What are we competing for? We are competing for the prevailing of our lives with dignity, Aren’t we?

In illustrating the PRESENT and the FUTURE (and the fluid interrelationship between the two), What rolls are they respectively impersonating to gain us further insight? This is a strong-sense and critico-creative discernment to understanding the ever-challenging nature and anatomy of change in every facet of Human Life!

In order to appreciate time progression and its beyond geometrical non-linear quality, Can we establish accurate parallelisms with metaphoric and not so metaphoric (yet most accurate) terms to better enlighten our minds with lacking optimum rigor?

Why do we humans, marshaling through such a massive technological progression, readily wish to subject our existence to retrogression by choosing not to recognize grave and yet subtle forces that redefine it all?

In the final analysis, the FUTURE is not for the fainthearted. Stated simply, be it known that the scale, scope and magnitude of the FUTURES are impossible to overstate.

The PRESENT is so playful and naïve just gaming in arenas whose sole proprietor is the omni-mode ruling monarchical FUTURE.

Compared to the FUTURE, Is the PRESENT resolutely and irrevocably comatose?

The PRESENT is irreparably stuck in the FUTURES’ besieging turbo-propelled by perpetual scientific breakthroughs.

As the PRESENT carries on just acting serially (not coping with all simultaneously but just gradually and in immersed ill randomness), the FUTURE ascertains every impending deed simultaneously.

In instituting best analyzes and countering the DOWNSIDES and leveraging the UPSIDES, the optimum analyzes are those industriously pondered by: (1) pre facto (before the facts), (2) a priori (a form of before the facts), (3) pre-mortem (much before mortem or before post-mortem), and (4) a posteriori.

Back in 1985, as I was starting to manage large operational petroleum risks — along with the risks embodied by some forty thousand employees with one hundred six thousand direct “eligible dependents” — (refinery, installations, wells, maritime fleets) — including the immense risks of oil refinery number one and oil refinery number three as per worldwide standards, I started asking myself how I could foresee some of that potential disruption (clearly, early on and for future cases) to avoid it or mitigate it somewhat.

During operational meetings — seeking to seize an all-encompassing overview for grave risks — there was going on a lengthy and detailed discussion of novel ways to manage and to manage risks. The north was (a) to think “out of the box,” and (b) to discern and execute multi-dimensional and interdisciplinary efforts.

In times and context of thinking further outside the box, Why we mustn’t underestimate current complexity! Should we think though the ensuing notion by Dr. Benoit Mandelbrot, Ph.D.?

“…Clouds are not spheres, mountains are no cones, coastlines are not circles, and bark is not smooth, nor does lightning travel in a straight line…” [214]

This profound dialogue was increasingly energized and re-energized (even in extramural meetings) while previous managers of Royal Dutch/Shell, Exxon, Standard Oil, Conoco-Phillips, Statoil, Totalfina, really believed in preclude insurance and reinsurance programs from being a pressing “black box.”

Since then and in my case, I have expanded and extended that exercise in what I believe is a considerable degree, both qualitatively and quantitatively.

Back in those days (and in my case, incessantly until know), we were managing extremely complex and large risks of industrial operations, logistics, information technology, “loss control,” industrial safety, quality assurance, “directors and officers,” “errors and omissions,” as well as the health and protection of a numerous head counts running — in my direct charge — up to 50,000 employees with the concomitant eligible dependents to add up to a final total of about 210,000 people.

Those industrial operations included fleets of a multitude of road vehicles, oil tanker vessels, and aircrafts (including ports, take-off / landing runways, etc. for the respective alluded vehicles).

During those years and on, one thing was certain for these companies whose Shell, Exxon and Standard Oil operations were merged into an integrated group with the second largest ranking in the world.

Tired of the lack of creativity of insurance and reinsurance providers for the multinational corporations — dealing with these global organizations as if they were “petty” personal risks —, top management systematically encouraged for everyone (including external consultants) to really think “out of the box,” while learning lessons from own industries, but also from “outsider” and/or outlying industries.

In actuality, this encouragement was unnecessary because our joint minds were “boiling” in seeking, researching, testing, and experimenting with new ideas.

The quality and reliability engineering movement was studied in great depth as well.

Many seminars, workshops and presentations were taking place among us, both internally and extramurally. Each one was under his / her own search for a number of years. So I can only speak about my own experience numbering into the two decades, which I boldly diversified greatly in tackling the same objective (controlling risks in advance).

This present work is, perhaps, a testament to some of that efforts that included training activities with companies like Sedgwick, AON, Marsh & McLennan, Jenner Fenton Slade, Jardine, Minet (St. Paul Group of Companies), Swiss-Re, MAPFRE, Lloyd’s of London (chief head-office).

Lessons learned by the Industrial Military Complex and especially NASA were, to a great extent, also incorporated congruently and cohesively.

The training with coupled with the interviewing of many “line” and “functional” manager across many industries and regions. Also with designated survey and polls while researching, studying, testing, experimenting all the time through those two decades.

Bringing under control complicated risks for customers such as the Word Bank, Ernst & Young Consulting, Toyota, Mitsubishi Motors, TNT Express, among other important organizations was acutely helpful in understanding a diversity of challenges and benefits presented by the risks to be managed and brought under control.

When I first became involved with large industrial, corporate and personnel risks, I soon realized that all tools available to me were sub-optimal in my view. My large clients were asking me to become further creative, innovative and to come up with new approaches under life-to-death criticalities. All of this started a major pondering process with reflections and cross-referenced researching multinationally.

From the classic insurance’s world, I found in every nation people speaking about “Risk Management” though, in the ultimate analysis, they only meant “Insurance and/or Reinsurance Management.” From the markets in North America, Latin America, Europe, Japan and that of Lloyd’s of London I captured “lessons to be learned.”

From the people who used to be or not in insurance, but really wanted to be in the vanguard of “Risk Management” without having as backbone the “financial cornerstone” I also captured “lessons to be learned.”

The greatest lessons I learned from my own management big and diverse corporate assets and liabilities thinking beyond ruined “out of the box” and getting increasingly further away from the insurance and reinsurance industries.

I did and still are engaged into pervasive research, experimenting, testing, surveying and polling. I did also research other thought schools as that of TQM by Deeming, Juran, TPS / Kaisen, SixSigma, Lean, LeanSigma, Reliability Reengineering (as jointly conceived by The Los Alamos National Laboratories and Procter And Gamble, P&G).

At that moment, and for some strange reason, someone got the maximum of my attention when he started speaking to me about Alvin Toffler’s and his game-changing book “Future Shock,” first published in the 1970s. [25]

From there on — having read the book carefully, I became engaged about the rate and omni-mode impact of change, seeing change engendering opportunities and chaos at the same time and forever. I then realized that the timing, tempo and rhythm of the progression of the change rate were always operating against humans’ intuitiveness and insight.

The driving force was the understanding of how small and complex things in life can be so profoundly modified by just instituting “out-of-this-world” common sense (not defunct common sense as per “Thomas Paine” any more).

Some forms of change are amazing and must be understood at any rate as per my view. For instance, when things feel less chaotic, it doesn’t mean that there is less chaos. It does mean that there is more chaos and order in fluid stasis. Clearly, organizations, firms, business, products, services, processes and markets have “life cycle.”

Yes, there are furthermore cyclical and seasonal changes. But there are also changes that are counter-cyclical and counter-seasonal amidst many other more fundamental forms of change. Cyclical and seasonal changes as well as counter-cyclical and counter-seasonal have each one a reaction (if you will a fluid consequence).

What it means is that many forms of chaos are greatly intertwined and, thus, generating (a) mutually-reinforcing energies (productively and disruptively), (b) function and purpose, and (c) and self-preservation for said chaotic yet ordered system, as their collective selective pressures get aligned by their own combined valuable orders (usually multiplied by many orders of magnitude).

When my father gave me his private library, I found a book that he never mentioned to me and which he read in 1957, way before my coming into existence, titled “El Desenlace Del Drama Mundial” (in Spanish, “The Final Outcome of World’s Drama”) published by Publicaciones Interamericanas and Pacific Press Press Publishing Association, and authored by Argentinean Dr. Fernando Chaij in 1956.

It is a textbook with the rigor and strategic end and theme of a book in the tradition of George Orwell, though it was not in any way speculative but rigorously based only on fact, statistics, reflection, concern and a rectification calling, never driven by the science-fiction genre. In fact, it is documented and supported with robust facts and statistics.

So many years later I came to a great understanding (since I believe in the forces of genotype and phenotype, as well as in the perpetually fluid interaction between both). My maternal grandmother was really a busy lady, not only in making her home and being entrepreneurial, but my mother — not fully aware of the subtle scope of my profession — one day told me, “Your grandmother was a futurologist. She worked on understanding how and when things were supposed to unfold.”

My paternal grandmother was a poetess. Lots of British humor and stamina in her. My maternal grandfather was a Royal Dutch/Shell contractor, owner of a diary products enterprise and a mind-expansion versatilist. My paternal grandfather was a licensed dentist and a man of learning and kindness that could not swallow ignorance.

She was studying several languages on her own and reading international newspapers with great discipline. By professional futurology is here meant to capture prospective images of eventual futures by exercising the scenario method via the scientific approach through applied omniscience and systems methodology. When I operate my scenario method process, I don’t limit said process to only three scenarios, but to a nearly infinite number.

And my father would constantly tell me, besides amplifying my brain through education and mind shaping my personalities, “try to foresee every problem so that you can fix each one in advance.” Exactly as Dr. Aubrey de Grey Ph.D. , a leading-edge scientist at the University of Cambridge in England, states it, “We'll be solving problems before they arrive.” [59] Quite a future-ready declaration, Is it not?

What are the ultimate choices of us?

Juan Enriquez: “We are the beginning to acquire … direct and deliberate control … over the evolution of all life forms … ON THE PLANET … Including ourselves.” [163]

Are we out-smarting ourselves?

Stephen M. R. Covey: “…And capabilities are particularly essential in today’s changing economy, where technology and globalization are outdating skill-sets faster than ever before. The half-life of our current knowledge and skills is much shorter that it has ever been, and suddenly someone who was very competent and even had a great track record in yesterday’s world may no longer be competent in today’s world …” [196]

From Nation States To Networks!

John Naisbitt observes: “...For many years the mindset has been that the global economy will be dominated by huge multinational companies. And that's turned out not to be the case. In fact, we have to re-examine our vocabulary and our definition of what multinational means .... I have a company called Megatrends Ltd., and we have 57 joint ventures in 42 countries, and we have only four employees including myself. We outsource everything. Well, almost everything. So I'm a multinational company. I must be, obviously, because I'm in 42 countries. But I'm not big. I'm small .... In other words, the world multinational has a new meaning. And if we say that the global economy will be dominated by multinationals in the new sense, then there is some truth to it. But if we mean it in the old way, that these huge global companies will control everything, that couldn't be more wrong .... What I think is really important is that there's a new kind of bigness. And that's big networks, rather than big mainframes. This is the metaphor I use .... I remember in my kitchen in Telluride, Colorado and watching CNN. It was the G7 were meeting in Naples for the economic summit. And I saw the leaders of these seven great industrial nations talking to each other, it struck me that this is a bunch of mainframes talking to each other in a PC world. It's part of the whole irrelevance of the G7, and by the twenty-first century I think I will be totally out the window ? it just doesn't make sense any more .... We no longer live in a world of big mainframes. We live in a world where the real power is in big networks. By big networks, I mean a lot of individuals networked together. And, by definition, a network doesn't have any headquarters. For a network to work, everyone has to feel that they are in the center. That's when it's really powerful .... The only huge company that I know of that's really done this is Asea Brown Boveri. If you listen to Percy Barnevick, he says: '…We grow all the time, but we also shrink all the time...' The network gets larger but the nodes get smaller...” [203]

Among other concurrent methodologies, one can see the future early on via Churchillian prescription!

Winston Churchill: “…The further backward you look, the further forward you can see...” [142]

Reinforcing this position had been Confucius for centuries: “…If a man gives not thought about what is distant, he will find sorrow near at hand...” [103]

In addition and to make “matters worse,” operating in advance has, in my case, an additional dimension. Using the notion by Einstein and in dealing with problem early on (pre facto), I will go and scan through the entirety of the haystack until I make certain that I get every needle IN ADVANCE.

“...Einstein was once asked what the difference was between him and the average person. He said that if you asked the average person to find a needle in a haystack, the person would stop when he or she found a needle. He, on other hand, would tear through the entire haystack looking for all the possible needles ...” [134]

Why should we manage problems way in advance before and thoroughly they get out control?

Dwight D. Eisenhower: “...All plans fall at first contact with the enemy [competing situations, including and beginning those of and by change, as well as those unplanned for] ...” [123]

Through most advanced scenario method and systems approach you practice zillion futures in advance to seize some relevant and detailed idea of the dynamics and the driving forces besieging you and your organization, enterprise, initiative with downsides and upsides. Can Dr. Grose underpin wisdom to this notion?

Dr. Vernon Grose, D.Sc.: “...It would be hard to find anyone who believes that losses occur without any cause. Yet many managers, acting as though an accident is a random stroke of fate, have to be reminded to seek and remove causes prior to a loss. Less obvious to the layman is the idea that nearly all accidental losses have a multiple causes: virtually no accident has a single cause .... Identifying causes, especially those that are subtle or unseen, requires tenacity, imagination, and a systematic method. However, since almost every accident or loss has a known precedent, you never have to start your search for causes empty-handed...” [99]

And Dr. Grose further indicates: “A primer on the development, application, and requirement of ‘systems thinking’ to obtain an ordered, global management perspective — a critical need if historical risk management is to be translated [in advance] from reaction into prevention of risk [many call risks “problems”] .... The systems approach is godlike — at least in perspective. It aims to look at any situation with OMNISCIENCE — TOTALITY OF KNOWLEDGE .... Of course, it never succeeds because of human limitations. But the goal remains. And such goal is essential if risk is to be managed effectively. Every possible risk must be considered before systematic management of risk can occur. If this seems grandiose, it isn’t meant to be. In failing to take such a lofty and all-encompassing view, managers are vulnerable to being blind-sided by an overlooked risk while believing that they have everything under control.” [99]

Adding insights in line with the theme treated and emergency preparedness and business continuity before and after extreme hazards, there are valuable reflections by Dr. Collins.

Dr. Robert A. Collins, Ph.D. : “Disasters are a natural and predictable part of the human condition. This includes both natural disasters and human-made disasters. In spite of this, whenever a disaster strikes, most people are unprepared. The inevitable result is the loss of life and property. It does not have to be this way .... SINCE DISASTERS ARE AN INEVITABLE PART OF LIFE, THE WISEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO UNDERSTAND THEM, PREPARE FOR THEM, AND CAPITALIZE ON THE OPPORTUNITIES THAT THEY PRESENT. The first and most important step in disaster planning is, obviously, to have a plan. Without a specific plan, it will be very difficult, if not impossible, to implement the other steps in disaster preparation. Most organizations deal with disasters by first hoping that they don’t happen. Then when they do happen, they respond to them and try to recover from them. MOST ORGANIZATIONS DO NOT TRY TO MITIGATE THEM IN ADVANCE. THIS IS AN IRRATIONAL AND EXPENSIVE STRATEGY .... It is impossible to plan for things that you cannot imagine. Therefore, the first step in forging the resilient organization is to conduct ‘scenario planning’ .... It is necessary for the organization to be honest with itself when completing the scenario planning step in disaster preparation. THE TASK HERE IS NOT TO IMAGINE THE WORST DISASTER THAT THE ORGANIZATION THINKS THAT IT CAN HANDLE. THE TASK IS TO IMAGINE THE WORST DISASTER THAT COULD POSSIBLE STRIKE THE COMPANY, GIVEN ITS GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION AND INDIVIDUAL CIRCUMSTANCES. Lee Clarke, a disaster planning expert and professor at Rutgers University argues, ‘IT’S NOT CRAZY TO THINK ABOUT THE WORST CASES [IN ADVANCE]’ .... ” [124]

An example of disruption-potential and post-‘risk management’?

“…You may remember the situation in 1982 when seven people in the U.S. died from ingesting Tylenol that had been laced with cyanide. The nation panicked. Some predicted that Johnson & Johnson would never be able to sell another product under that name. But Johnson & Johnson took responsibility for the situation. They immediately alerted consumers to stop using Tylenol until they could determine the extent of the tampering. They recalled approximately 31 million bottles of Tylenol, retailing at more than $100 million. They offered to exchange all Tylenol capsules that had already been purchased for Tylenol tablets, which cost them millions more. They established relations with law enforcement officers on every level to help search for the person who laced the medication and to help prevent further tampering. They put up a reward of $100,000 for the person who committed the crime. When they reintroduced the product back in the market, it had new triple-seal, tamper-resistant packaging. As a result of their actions, they turned what could have been a disaster into a victory in credibility and public trust …” [196]

Can we take advantage of risk and benefit management with immense forethought and never in expensive hindsight?

“Journalist Geoffrey Colvin (2005) argues: '…The events that do the worst damage are the one no even conceived of … The idea that a passenger jet might crash into the World Trade Center had been thought of; it was a fairly obvious possibility, especially since a plane once crashed into the Empire State Building. What no one imagined was the combination of large planes with nearly full fuel tanks plus the impact of the crashes jarring fireproofing from the girders, and how this could bring the towers down. In retrospect, it obviously could have been imagined. I’ just wasn’t'…” [124]

If we based our decision-making on intuitiveness and hunches, we will never get it right. We can just admit we are inundated with complexity, identify it, establish countermeasures against it and strategy to finally get our benefits in a sustained and rational way.

How are these speedy and somewhat dramatic times shaping and re-shaping us?

“Journalist Amy Bernstein (2006) point out: ‘…Few issues have morphed as dramatically in the last five year as corporate resilience. That phrase once refereed to managing risks that were fairly predictable and relatively easy to insure against: fires, strikes, and economic recessions for example. But all that has changed. A string of catastrophes — beginning with the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001, and continuing through the bombing of the Madrid railway and the Asian Tsunami in 2004, the blast on the London Underground in July 2005, Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in August and September, and the earthquake that devastated Pakistan in October 2005 — has rearranged our concept of disaster preparedness. It’s no longer enough for companies to devise a business continuity plan and file it away somewhere. THEY NOW HAVE TO FIGURE OUT HOW TO BOUNCE BACK FROM THE UNTHINKABLE.’…” [124]

What are the relevant considerations that we insist on ignoring beyond any irresponsibility?

“Yossi Sheffi, Professor of Systems Engineering at MIT, conducted a three year study of resilient organizations from Toyota to UPS to the US Navy, and drew a simple conclusion: A COMPANY’S ABILITY TO RETURN TO BUSINESS DEPENDS MORE ON THE DECISIONS IT MAKES BEFORE A SHOCK HITS THAN THOSE IT MAKES DURING OR AFTER THE EVENT… According to Sheffi, the terrorist attacks of 9/11 forced him and his colleagues to see a more comprehensive view of risk. He states: ‘Before that, I thought about it mostly in financial terms — buying insurance against various business risks, buying commodity futures such as oil to hedge against price fluctuations, the use of financial derivatives, etc. In the wake of the attacks, I starred looking at all kinds of disruptions, and it became clear that there’s a lot more to consider than contingency planning or financial hedging. THERE ARE LOW-PROBABILITY/HIGH IMPACT EVENTS like terrorist attacks that may cause unplanned exists from important markets or even the demise of the unprepared business’ .... During MIT’s three year study on resilient companies and interviews with dozens of companies, found that a culture of resilience was a common element. He argues: ‘The essence of resilience is the containment of disruption and recovery from it. Culture contributes to resilience by endowing employees with a set of principles regarding the proper response when the unexpected does occur, and when the formal organization’s policy does not cover the situation at hand or is too slow to react, it suggests the course of action to take’ .... ” [124]

In speaking of contingency planning, it's worth noting the ensuing.

Murphy's law states: “If anything can go wrong, it ultimately will.” [96] Nonetheless, I insist that in many instances this “law” is universally used not to get “preparedness” in advance and in place. So planning and preparation becomes lax. Subsequently, the loss disruption ? once crystallized ? is congruently blamed on Murphy's law. This is rampant mediocrity.

What it used to work and does not work at all now? Why every manager must learn and plan ahead — through unthinkable discernment for Life — in a global world contextualized among many superposed and conflicting driving forces that grow more and more complex by the second?

To this end Grose indicates: “After-the-fact no longer works .... Bring it back if you have any trouble with it, and I’ll fix it somehow,’ was the standard comment when you used to pick up a bicycle, automobile, food mixer, or lawn mower from the repair shop. And the repairman meant what he said. He was confident that if he had overlooked anything or made a mistake of any kind, he would get a second shot at fixing .... The ‘second shot’ is a luxury that no longer exists in many businesses. You get only one chance — after that, you’ll be talking only with attorneys, insurance agents, or bankers .... Life used to be simple. You knew your customers on a first-name basis. Your product or service was a relatively simple one — understood by both you and your customer. Your name and reputation were sufficient to cover any error or oversight .... But the world has become complex, too complex to allow such comfortable relationships. Consumer expectations are matching the complexities. Instantaneous news coverage of accidents and losses virtually precludes the private, out-of-sight settlement of risk effects that had previously allowed the after-the-fact resolution of risk to succeed. The breadth in that old idea is rapidly being squeezed out — like the inevitable tightening of a boa constrictor around its victim .... The price for public exposure of loss is high. Managers have begun to realize that risk must be examined formally and resolved beforehand rather than being settled after-the-fact. And they learn from others. It was the 1982 sinking of the offshore drilling rig Ocean Ranger that spurred EXXON top management to order a systematic evaluation of their offshore drilling risks … Even though EXXON does not own such rigs, it recognized that even conducting operations aboard them created risks that demanded before-the-fact identification, evaluation, and control.” [99]

Prof. Hamel, along those lines by de Grey and Grose, states: “From Nostradamus to Alvin Toffler, individuals and organizations have long been obsessed with trying to see the future. The goal is to somehow get advanced warning of ‘what will be’…” [64]

Furthering the motions by Hamel, de Grey, my loved father and my own self (that is, seeking to further the quest and findings about diverse perspectives on knowledge), Dr. Hauerwas has some invaluable words of wisdom about “Universal Knowledges.” Ensuing:

Stanley Hauerwas, B.D. M.A. M.Phil and Ph.D.: “…in support of the liberal notion that the knowledges that constitute the university have no ‘use’ fail to ask what [John Henry] Newman mean by ‘universal knowledge.’ By ‘universal’ Newman did not mean that the knowledges that constitute liberal learning cannot be justified by their utility, but rather that all knowledge was interconnected because the ‘universe in its length and breadth is so intimately knit together.’ To be educated is not to be well read or to know a great deal about this or that subject. Rather, it is the only true enlargement of mind which is the power of viewing many things at once as one whole, of referring them severally to their true place in the universal system, or understanding their respective values, and determining their mutual dependence…” [95]

And Hauerwas continues:

“… Thus is that form of Universal Knowledges sets up in the individual intellect, and constitutes its perfection. Possessed of this real illumination, the mind never views any part of the extended subject-matter of Knowledge without recollecting that it is but a part, or without the associations which spring from this recollection. It makes every thing in some sort lead to every thing else; it would communicate the image of the whole to every separate portion, till that whole becomes in imagination like a spirit, everywhere pervading and penetrating its component parts, and giving them one definite meaning .... Philosophy, not theology, Newman believes to be the discipline that is distinct from all the sciences, that is, ‘in some sense’ philosophy is ‘a science of sciences.’ …” [95] I must communicate that this wisdom is “hyperbolically” optimum.

Notwithstanding, said “Universal Knowledges,” an indeed appreciated and practicable notion is a sub-system (or only as a function of) what I have here defined as “applied omniscience.” There is no incongruousness, but an absolute synergistic supplementary. My applied omniscience definition at « http://bit.ly/c8zAeb » I strongly believe in one KNOWLEDGE stemming from applied omniscience.

Doesn’t “pantology” bring together, into cohesive unification and integration, every sort of universals knowledge? Given that premise, What are the unambiguous merits, basis and grounds to speak of “universal knowledges” (that is, in plural) in so contravening the dictum by the Oxford Dictionary? The undersigned will ascertain that the term “pantology” ( http://bit.ly/bmRF1C ) is here and now included in own definition of applied omniscience.

I was raised in a home in which it was much more important to solve problems — through fundamental and permanent approaches — before their crystallizing. Before these findings, I wanted to know why and how each toy and even 383-inch (eight-cylinder) Chrysler Fury engine operate, as well as investigating the possibility of making those artifact “perform” better, safer, and faster.

Fortunately, I am not a prognosticator, but I am steadily practicing zillion “FUTURES” in advance effortlessly. For over some fifteen years these workings by my mind stop being “second nature” and became first nature indeed.

For a client or for a serious subject matter of mine, I will be eliciting the driving forces that will impact positively and negatively, as well as the action plans to exploit every UPSIDE out of every DOWNSIDE.

In the mean time, there is an Arab adage to share with you: “That who foretells the truth lies even if he is telling the truth.” Sir Karl Popper, to that end, argues: “We may become the makers of our fate when we have ceased to pose as its prophets .... Because of strictly logical reasons, it is impossible for us to predict the future course of history.”

Consequences of attempting to predict the future?

John Smart: “…’The future can’t be predicted,’ is a common refrain … But … when [this perspective] is wrong, it is profoundly wrong.” [142]

And, along those same lines, Jean Cocteau (1989 – 1963) points out: “…The future doesn’t belong to anyone. There are no harbingers; there are only but debtors...” [130] [130] [111]

Further insight along these lines:

By Gary Hamel, Ph.D. : “The future belongs not to those who possess a crystal ball, but those willing to challenge the biases and prejudices of the ‘establishment.’ The future belongs more to the unorthodox than it does to the prognosticators, more to the movement than to the starry-eyed.” [87] Ergo, there is ZERO prophesying beforehand.

By extreme systematic, systemic, “before-the facts” cognition (thus exercising a global management perspective), I see trends, their intertwining, their superposing, their interrelationship, their dynamics, and their possibilities. I also see advantages and disadvantages and the fruitfulness of tackling them when it is called for.

Even more than I’d like it to be that way, I must admit I am a pervasive “patternist,” patternist (paterfamilias’ patternists among other patternists) from patterns that become patterns identified, acknowledged, analyzed and understood early on, that is: before their underneath currents (driving forces) make it evident to the world.

As I apply, patternists emphasize the deepest understanding of patterns — as they are embedded and entrenched in driving forces — over the long-term times, without excluding short-term ranges.

In the process I might regard myself a rigorist. I need to have an in-depth understanding of the driving forces to institute truly robust Risk Management (as I understand this grave, complex and indispensable discipline).

These extreme systematically and systemically cognitions, as expressly exercising both hemispheres of your brain (thus exercising a global management perspective), might land me or you to pre-cog capabilities if you’re willing — that is — to deploy own efforts in sustained ways.

In my case and that of my maternal grandmother, it has nothing to do with clairvoyance. It has only and fully to do with the application of the scientific method and working out the brain.

The scientific and technological progression, driven by the convergence of many visionary industries and the marketability of the stemming technologies globally, has brought an unprecedented level of scientific knowledge at a growing rate beyond geometrically exponential progression.

In the mean time, and not so paradoxically, too many valuable minds are engaged in rogue retrogression (that is, progression’s antipodes) as well. Are minds in retrogression desperately seeking self devastation? Progression and retrogression impact and inflict changes.

From the Institute for the Future, Paul Saffo and Roy Amara make a point regarding change: “I think about it as ‘orders of impact.’ First order, second order, etc. When an earthquake happens you have a whole series of waves that follow. The first order of the auto was the horseless carriage. The second order was the traffic jam. The third-order impact was the move toward the suburbs. This led in turn to the creation of huge metropolitan areas.” [64]

Medical advancements and breakthroughs not only hold the promise of prolonging life while holding it with great health and stamina, but it is entertaining the idea of human lives prevailing for up to one thousand years while some, like Dr. Ray Kurzweil Ph.D. and Dr. Terry Grossman M.D. [26], [27], speak habitually of conquering immortality.

In this digital age of information and knowledge workers, utopias and dystopias don’t matter much beyond what I here call the “caveat.” In directly dealing with every limit, border, barrier, and boundary of a scientific and technological utopia ? utopia meant in a pejoratively mode by the average soul ? is now being pervasively by-passed, overcome, surpassed, superseded by ever-growing rates of geometrically exponential discontinuous increasing orders of magnitude (orders of magnitude of newness by any disruptive “unprecedented” measure). Those immensurable and diverse driving forces are in-progress long set in motion both for good and ill while oceans of ignoramuses and simpletons are turning their blind eyes. In all sanctity, everyone has the right to “pitch” his / her own actions and “catch” his / her own consequences.

To this end John Lienhard comments: “…We live in a technology-dense world .... We are terrifyingly naked without knowing elementary things about [how technologies] work...” [104]

Many serious researchers (including Cambridge University's Dr. Aubrey de Grey, Ph.D. ) speak about as living as you pay and use the one-thousand year milestone not to make people afraid about immortality becoming a major reality in the near future.

The aim is immortality per se and not the thousand years in actuality. In the final decision, anyone will make his or her “freewill” choice.

Addressing Kurzweil, Grossman and de Grey, a clever and prominent physician makes his point. Dr. Joseph Knoll, M.D. who effected an extraordinary reflection: “We shall never forget that humans obviously cannot change natural laws, but by discovering their mechanisms of action they learn to make use of this knowledge. By conquering gravitation man stepped across his naturally given limit and ultimately landed on the moon.” [59]

Someone in a History Channel program hosted by Dr. Michio Kaku indicated, along these lines in speaking of nanotechnology and biotechnology and life extension, “…that illnesses and defects won’t be a part of the human life…” [111]

Impossibilities rendered fully feasible?

Sir Arthur C. Clarke’s Three Laws: “(1) When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong. (2) The only way of discovering the limits of the possible is to venture a little way past them into the impossible. (3) Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.” [166]

There is a valuable thought about the future and its arrival, attributed to Gary Hamel, “The problem with the future is that is different [since is profound, its scientific properties are being dramatically changed in real time and all of the time]. If you are unable to think differently, the Future will always arrive as a surprise.” [28]

In addition and as it is believed to be proclaimed by Samuel Goldwyn, “Only a fool would make predictions, especially about the future.” [64] If we are serious about change and all of its derivations and sequels, we must talk future studies copiously.

To optimize predictability and accuracy or even under the mildest scenario and sternest and clever effort to amplify and diversify scenarios envisioned to get an early preparation (in advance) about the dynamics of processes, challenges, opportunities, risks, and deviations. We must walk this intricate talk the soonest.

Before solving any complex problems (“advanced problems”), one must comprehend the most of them. A cross-functional, multidimensional, pluri-contextual scrutinizing and multi-strata of its ever-fluid and applicable womb-to-tomb, epidemiological vista will be beyond vital.

In the execution, one must operate through many contexts and brainy filters and aided by a cohesive compilation of a great diversity of perspectives “funneled” into a monolithic unison. This “monolithic unison” is set under increasing dynamics. If you observed it fixed, it’s because it’s moving faster that your senses can register.

Speaking of novel and comprehensive foresight and far-sight and the modes to raise the ante in that science, art, practice, and above all self-discipline.

I will include a remarkable quotation by Strategos Institute Founder and London Business School Professor. Prof. Gary Hamel, Ph.D. : “Each revolution in art was based on a re-conception of reality. It wasn’t the canvas, the pigments, or the brushes that changed, but how the artist perceived the world. In the same sense, it’s not the tools that distinguish industry revolutionaries from huM.D. rum incumbents — not the information technology they harness, not the process they use, not their facilities. Instead, is their ability to escape the stranglehold of the familiar.” [64]

As I paraphrase Dr. Stephen Hawking and to pursue the former, my express perpetual bottom-line (that of the undersigned) for Life is the ensuing: “My goal is simple. It is a complete understanding of the Universe, why it is as it is and why it exists at all.” In my case, my interest is not just intellectual, but fully concrete and practical towards solving problems, terminating risks and seizing benefits.

This work is not meant as an intellectual text so much as pragmatic and practical management look at change, with a very strong emphasis on execution. It’s not about a pure intellectual understanding, or just an ivory tower understanding, but, rather, the focus is on smart execution.

I strongly support JFK’s ensuing take as well.

President John F. Kennedy’s speech on September 12, 1962 at Race University: “…If this capsule history of our progress teaches us anything, it is that man, in his quest for knowledge and progress, is determined and cannot be deterred. The exploration of space will go ahead, whether we join in it or not, and it is one of the great adventures of all time, and no nation which expects to be the leader of other nations can expect to stay behind in the race for space .... Well, space is there, and we're going to climb it, and the moon and the planets are there, and new hopes for knowledge and peace are there. And, therefore, as we set sail we ask God's blessing on the most hazardous and dangerous and greatest adventure on which man has ever embarked…” [80]

In aligning the idea of understanding the nature of change and the impacts stemming from said change, former GE’s CEO Jack Welch indicated: “…Seeing the world the way it is, not the way we hope it will be or wish it to be...” Then, Jeff Immelt succeeded Jack Welch and became new GE’s CEO in September 07, 2010. [42]

To further enlighten the present material, Tichy stated: “…Jeff Immelt realizes that the world changes every day and that his job is to keep GE competitive in that changing world. But his ability to take the company where it needs to go is greatly facilitated by the fact that he has a clear understanding of where he is starting...” [42]

Agreeing greatly with Dr. Hawkins’s, Welch also mentioned, “…To get to the guts of why things happen...” [42] Welch indeed believes in exercising pattern analyzes (as patternist), Does he not?

There is a mandate in the PRESENT over the FUTURE by the forces of the FORTHCOMING TIMES. The solid idea about it requires crafting a new vision, with its appended (loose/tight and amorphous but abstract yet concrete) strategy, and aligning people to it.

Transformation involves not just tearing away from the PAST, but immediately moving into a new better future besieged by great perils that must be transformed or not into lucrative yet sustainable UPSIDES.

In speaking to your intellect, as your intellect and mine dialogue fluently this via, I will appeal to legitimate narrative resources to offer you an accurate insight and perspective of how the scientific properties of change are changing and how changed changes are beginning to change it all beyond the wildest dreams and nightmares. I will use metaphors and other analogies with rigor.

In due time, you will realize that this is a well-meant and responsible calling in which vigorous rigor is sine qua non to the undersigned. I immensely enjoy advanced democracy, rule of law (rigor juris), true justice, peace and harmony. I really like science and technology but to the best service of creation and never of devastation.

Nonetheless, to “milk” hope out of daring situations, I must face raw realities to start de-risking some really unnecessary disruption potentials. My most unambiguous end is to seek peace through harmonic means only. Believe me, I am not naïve just become hopeful when I become phenomenally industrious to paraphrase some prominent Germans.

Why will I use the above referred “legitimate narrative resources”? Because I feel there is massive universal and dysfunctional illiteracy concerning the nuances in the rates of change. There has always been like that except but one feature. Now, the incumbents of supine ignorance are over-empowered by pervasive, yet inexpensive tools of creation and devastation.

Even as headlines in “hard-copy” newspapers supersede the most creative fantasies embedded in science fiction, many incumbents just don’t get it. Others are really upset because they cannot understand why the PRESENT does not resemble the nearest PAST.

Others are paralyzed in and by the analyzes. And others manifest an anarchistic tendency against society.

Through centuries, the greatest luminaries have greatly reflected and recommended not to fight against extraordinary forces, but to use them smartly. This time around, with the Kingdom of the “Society of Knowledge” (that also embraces the “infotech economy”) ruling as the prominent Tudor family, one must become a cross-pollinated savant to navigate the waters shed by said forces.

Traumatized vestiges. A cicatrized PAST. A fossilized HISTORY. A moribund yet absent-minded PRESENT. A ridiculous ‘CONTINUUM’ (so-called). Many FUTURES to exploit, counter, and transform in advance, now. By whom? By practitioners of prepared-mind executioners.

The PRESENT seems to be having a great deal of enjoyment by pontificating words and deeds solely engaged in exponential mediocrity, thus exploiting the worst of humankind as if it were the most desired quality. This featured quality by the PRESENT is pervasively horrendous and existentially damaging.

On the contrary, the FUTURE is capable, and in fact it implements so, of doing well to the point we would astound ourselves. The actual quotation by Thomas Edison indicates: “If we all did the things we are capable of doing well we would literally astound ourselves.” [44]

As this material will portray, and much to the advantage of the subject matter here dealt with, I carry and will carry on all my professional lines of practice with absolute agreement with Otto Herman Khan. He veritably stated: “I'm against fashionable thinking ... I'm against ignorance ... I am against the whole cliche of the moment ... I'm against sloppy, emotional thinking…[I am against incomplete, linear thinking].” [43].

The undersigned subscribes every declaration by Otto Herman Khan and supplement those with an additional one. “I am against inexpensive thinking.” [111]

Technically correct thinking, for example, has no waiting allowance for the entire scientific establishment (amplest form) to disconfirm or to confirm evidence embedded in said “technically correct thinking” notion.

Salvador Dali in seconding the motion by Khan offers us a thought: “Get real; dream the impossible.” However, if you dream the impossible, you must get prepared to work rigorously and smartly for a serious term of time.

« CHAPTER 2 »
THE CHALLENGE

In case, you just yet don't have it unambiguously clear, this is Valéry's take in the beginning of the last century.

(by Paul Valéry, 1932)

“…All the notions we thought solid, all the values of civilized life, all that made for stability in international relations, all that made for regularity in the economy … in a word, all that tended happily to limit the uncertainty of the morrow, all that gave nations and individuals some confidence in the morrow … all this seems badly compromised. I have consulted all augurs I could find, of every species, and I have heard only vague words, contradictory prophecies, curiously feeble assurances. Never has humanity combined so much power with so much disorder, so much anxiety with so many playthings, so much knowledge with so much uncertainty…” [56]

There is great American scientist offers cautious optimism!

Dr. Robert H. Goddard, Ph.D. : “It is difficult to say what is impossible, for the dream of yesterday is the hope of today and the reality of tomorrow.” [117] Biography of Dr. Goddard at http://bit.ly/bRzGqm

« CHAPTER 2 »
AN ACTUAL DIALOGUE OF DARWIN, NEWTON, KANT, GOETHE, BACON, DA VINCI, GALILEO, TESLA, BUCMINSTER FULLER, CHURCHILL AND OTHERS WITH ANDRES AGOSTINI? [131]

Andres: “Charles, How does your mind envision in general? And what about you, Isaac?”
Charles Darwin: “My mind seems to have become a kind of machine for grinding general laws out of large collections of facts.” [131]
Isaac Newton: “If I have seen further than others, it is by standing upon the shoulders of giants.” [131]
Andres: “How do you visualize or do you not visualize, Immanuel? Can you offer us a suggestion?”
Immanuel Kant: “Seek not the favor of the multitude; it is seldom got by honest and lawful means. But seek the testimony of few; and number not voices, but weigh them.”[131]
Andres: “How does your vision and thought relate, Charles? And what about in your case Immanuel?”
Charles Darwin: “The highest possible stage in moral culture is when we recognize that we ought to control our thoughts.” [131]
Immanuel Kant: “All thought must, directly or indirectly, by way of certain characters, relate ultimately to intuitions, and therefore, with us, to sensibility, because in no other way can an object be given to us. Thoughts without content are empty, intuitions without concepts are blind.” [131]
Andres: “Johann, in addition to the views of Kant, Darwin and Newton, How — in your view — one should see? Can you give us some hints?”
Johann Wolfgang Von Goethe: “Every day we should hear at least one little song, read one good poem, see one exquisite picture, and, if possible, speak a few sensible words. In nature we never see anything isolated, but everything in connection with something else which is before it, beside it, under it and over it. The hardest thing to see is what is in front of your eyes.” [131]
Andres: “Johann, How does your mind envision?”
Johann Wolfgang Von Goethe: “All intelligent thoughts have already been thought; what is necessary is only to try to think them again.” [131]
Andres: “Francis, What is your take about the operation of one's mind and / or perhaps a personal trait?”
Francis Bacon: “Of all virtues and dignities of the mind, goodness is the greatest, being the character of the Deity; and without it, man is a busy, mischievous, wretched thing.” [131]
Andres: “How do people exercise thinking, Francis?”
Francis Bacon: “People usually think according to their inclinations, speak according to their learning and ingrained opinions, but generally act according to custom.” [131]
Andres: “What truth holds intact regardless, Charles?”
Charles Darwin: “False facts are highly injurious to the progress of science, for they often endure long; but false views, if supported by some evidence, do little harm, for every one takes a salutary pleasure in proving their falseness.” [131]
Andres: “What is your POV concerning science, Imamnuel?”
Immanuel Kant: “Science is organized knowledge. Wisdom is organized life.” [131]
Andres: “What is your POV concerning science, Johann?”
Johann Wolfgang von Goethe: “He who possesses art and science has religion; he who does not possess them, needs religion. The credit of advancing science has always been due to individuals and never to the age.” [131]
Andres: “What is your POV concerning science, Isaac?”
Isaac Newton: “To me there has never been a higher source of earthly honor or distinction than that connected with advances in science.” [131]
Andres: “What is your POV concerning science, Charles?”
Charles Darwin: “A scientific man ought to have no wishes, no affections, — a mere heart of stone. False facts are highly injurious to the progress of science, for they often endure long; but false views, if supported by some evidence, do little harm, for every one takes a salutary pleasure in proving their falseness.” [131]
Andres: “What topic is for one to really learn about it, Johann?”
Johann Wolfgang von Goethe: “No one has ever learned fully to know themselves. Only by joy and sorrow does a person know anything about themselves and their destiny. They learn what to do and what to avoid.” [131]
Andres: “In learning, What is important for one to bear in mind, Charles?”
Charles Darwin: “In the long history of humankind (and animal kind, too) those who learned to collaborate and improvise most effectively have prevailed.” [131]
Andres: In seeing, “How does one make a decision, Leonardo?”
Leonardo da Vinci: “There are three classes of people: those who see, those who see when they are shown, those who do not see. Why does the eye see a thing more clearly in dreams than the imagination when awake?” [131]
Andres: “Leonardo, I have heard an appalling notion from some management mogul. This person indicates that if an individual does not get ‘mad,’ she and he won't solve a significant problem? What fosters knowledge and what precludes it?”
Leonardo da Vinci: “Where there is shouting, there is no true knowledge.” [131]
Andres: “Francis, I have heard an appalling notion from some management mogul. This person indicates that if an individual does not get “mad,” she and he won't solve a significant problem? What fosters knowledge and what precludes it?”
Francis Bacon: “Anger makes dull men witty, but it keeps them poor.” [131]
Andres: “Knowledge to be bestowed upon ourselves and others to achieve what, Francis?”
Francis Bacon: “For also knowledge itself is power.” [131]
Andres: “What is philosophy good for in your view, Francis?”
Francis Bacon: “A little philosophy inclineth man's mind to atheism, but depth in philosophy bringeth men's minds about to religion.”
Andres: “How valuable to you is prudence, Francis?”
Francis Bacon: “A prudent question is one-half of wisdom.” [131]
Andres: “Where does opportunities com from, Francis?”
Francis Bacon: “A wise man will make more opportunities than he finds.” [131]
Andres: “Where do you get knowledge from, Leonardo?”
Leonardo da Vinci: “All our knowledge has its origins in our perceptions.” [131]
Andres: “Why is so important to conceive the right future, Herman?”
Herman Kahn: “Projecting a persuasive image of a desirable and practical future is extremely important to high morale, to dynamism, to consensus, and in general to help the wheels of society turn smoothly.” [131]
Andres: “What is changing the most in your view and what are the “downside” implications of said changes, Herman?”
Herman Kahn: “A total nuclear freeze is counterproductive — especially now, when technology is rapidly changing and the Soviets have some important strategic advantages.” [131]
Andres: “What have you done with your thinking capacity, Herman?”
Herman Kahn: “For some years I have spent my time on exactly these questions — both in thinking about ways to prevent war, and in thinking about how to fight, survive, and terminate a war, should it occur.” [131]
Andres: “What relevance do you give — as a specific value type of thing — you give to morality and ethics, Herman?”
Herman Kahn: “Human and moral factors must always be considered. They must never be missing from policies and from public discussion.” [131]
Andres: “Why must we advance science? Can you be a bit specific, Galileo? ”
Galileo Galilei: “By denying scientific principles, one may maintain any paradox.” [131]
Andres: “What is mathematics to you, Albert?”
Albert Einstein: “Pure mathematics is, in its way, the poetry of logical ideas.” [131]
Andres: “What is imagination good for, Albert?”
Albert Einstein: “Imagination is everything. It is the preview of life's coming attractions. Imagination will take you everywhere.” [131]
Andres: “What is education?”
Albert Einstein: “Education is what remains after one has forgotten what one has learned in school.” [131]
Andres: “How does one should live life wisely in your opinion, Albert?”
Albert Einstein: “Learn from yesterday, live for today, hope for tomorrow. The important thing is not to stop questioning.” [131]
Andres: “What are your thoughts lately?”
Albert Einstein: “I want to know all Gods thoughts; all the rest are just details.” [131]
Andres: “What are the connections among every discipline of knowledge?”
Albert Einstein: “All religions, arts and sciences are branches of the same tree.” [131]
Andres: “What is science good for, Albert?”
Albert Einstein: “It stands to the everlasting credit of science that by acting on the human mind it has overcome man's insecurity before himself and before nature.” [131]
Andres: “Is it learning important, Ben?”
Benjamin Franklin: “A learned blockhead is a greater blockhead than an ignorant one.” [131]
Andres: “What is the problem with self-made ignoramuses?”
Benjamin Franklin: “Being ignorant is not so much a shame, as being unwilling to learn.” [131]
Andres: “Who has taught you the most, Ben?”
Benjamin Franklin: “Experience is a dear teacher, but fools will learn at no other.” [131]
Andres: “How do you forge an educated mind?”
Benjamin Franklin: “Tell me and I forget. Teach me and I remember. Involve me and I learn.” [131]
Andres: “What is the opposite of Reason?”
Benjamin Franklin: “The way to see by Faith is to shut the Eye of Reason.” [131]
Andres: “Where will you trust your most treasured funds?”
Benjamin Franklin: “An investment in knowledge pays the best interest.”
Andres: “How does one succeed?”
Benjamin Franklin: “Do not fear mistakes. You will know failure. Continue to reach out.” [131]
Andres: “In the West wisdom seems to be a fashion while in the Far East this is a matter of great attention, is it not?”
Benjamin Franklin: “Wise men don't need advice. FOOLS WON'T TAKE IT.” [131]
Andres: “What is the methodical sequence to success?”
Thomas A. Edison: “Being busy does not always mean real work. The object of all work is production or accomplishment and to either of these ends there must be forethought, system, planning, intelligence, and honest purpose, as well as perspiration. Seeming to do is not doing.” [131]
Andres: “How do you get to prevailing in seizing success?”
Thomas A. Edison: “I find my greatest pleasure, and so my reward, in the work that precedes what the world calls success.” [131]
Andres: “How important is winning?”
Thomas A. Edison: “I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that won't work.” [131]
Andres: “What is your take about complexity?”
Thomas A. Edison: “I know this world is ruled by infinite intelligence. Everything that surrounds us — everything that exists — proves that there are infinite laws behind it. There can be no denying this fact. It is mathematical in its precision.” [131]
Andres: “Do you trust serendipities or do you prefer pseudo-serendipities?”
Thomas A. Edison: “I never did anything by accident, nor did any of my inventions come by accident; they came by work.” [131]
Andres: “How do you gauge success?”
Thomas A. Edison: “Just because something doesn't do what you planned it to do doesn't mean it's useless.” [131]
Andres: “What is that long-ignored flank?”
Thomas A. Edison: “Opportunity is missed by most people because it is dressed in overalls and looks like work.” [131]
Andres: “Richard, How do you like the world's technological advances?”
R. Buckminster Fuller: “Humanity is acquiring all the right technology for all the wrong reasons.” [131]
Andres: “How do you capture success in your daily practice?”
R. Buckminster Fuller: “Most of my advances were by mistake. You uncover what is when you get rid of what isn't.” [131]
Andres: “What is your view on conventional [‘out-of-the-box’ ? — so-called ? — ] discernment?”
R. Buckminster Fuller: “People should think things out fresh and not just accept conventional terms and the conventional way of doing things.” [131]
Andres: “Richard, do you believe in becoming strategically surprised?”
R. Buckminster Fuller: “There is nothing in a caterpillar that tells you it's going to be a butterfly.” [131]
Andres: “Give me a hint! How involved are you with futures study?”
R. Buckminster Fuller: “We are called to be architects of the future, not its victims.” [131]
Andres: “In your own words, What is your own significance towards education?”
R. Buckminster Fuller: “You can never learn less, you can only learn more.” [131]
Andres: “Nikola, Are you future-ready?”
Nikola Tesla: “Let the future tell the truth, and evaluate each one according to his work and accomplishments. The present is theirs; the future, for which I have really worked, is mine.” [131]
Andres: “What is the thinking-process failing these days?”
Nikola Tesla: “The scientists of today think deeply instead of clearly. One must be sane to think clearly, but one can think deeply and be quite insane.” [131]
Andres: “Having lived through so much history, Has life been a struggle for you?”
Winston Churchill: “A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.” [131]
Andres: “How does a manager prevail?”
Winston Churchill: “Battles are won by slaughter and maneuver. The greater the general, the more he contributes in maneuver, the less he demands in slaughter.” [131]
Andres: “What is your take on the quality-assurance movement?”
Winston Churchill: “Great and good are seldom the same man.” [131]
Andres: “What is your mind-expansion pathway?”
Winston Churchill: “I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught.” [131]
Andres: “Can there be anti-leadership? Offer an instance?”
Winston Churchill: “If Hitler invaded hell I would make at least a favorable reference to the devil in the House of Commons.” [131]
Andres: “How supportive of the 'PRESENT' are you?”
Winston Churchill: “If we open a quarrel between past and present, we shall find that we have lost the future.” [131]

Forewarning: The answers by the dialogue parties with the undersigned are fully accurate and supported by the facts. Verify, to trust, at www.brainyquote.com

« CHAPTER 2 »
EPIC OMISSION(S)?

QUESTION: ARE WE PURPORTEDLY IGNORING COLOSSAL KNOWLEDGE CRITICALITY? LIVING IN THE SOCIETY OF KNOWLEDGE (THAT ALSO EMBRACES THE “INFOTECH ECONOMY”) UTTERLY STATES THAT YOUR MIND WILL CATCH STATE-OF-THE-ART KNOWLEDGE BY OSMOSIS?

In aligning brains and leadership in the third millennium towards seizing actionable knowledge creation and utilization, Tichy points out some interesting reflections too often ignored by many private, public, NGO, supranational, and even academia incumbents:

“The leadership job of the twenty-first century is to enhance brainpower of an organization by having leaders at all levels engaged in Virtuous Teaching Cycles. The case has been made that we now live in a knowledge era where the value of intellectual capital has supplemental physical assets. In this world, leaders must make everyone smarter while simultaneously aligning the energy and commitment of the people in their organizations … Thomas Stewart, a Fortune Editor and a leading thinker in the field, outlined the foundations for them knowledge economy with powerful simplicity in his most recent book, The Wealth of Knowledge: ‘The knowledge economy stands on three pillars. The first: Knowledge has become what we buy, sell, and do. It is the most important factor of production. The second pillar is a mate, a corollary to the first: Knowledge assets — that is, intellectual capital — have become more important to companies than financial and physical assets. The third pillar is this: To prosper in this new economy and exploit these newly vital assets, we need new vocabularies, new management techniques, new technologies, and new strategies. On three pillars rest all the new economy’s laws and its profits’…”

Tichy supplements:

“Stewart’s ranking reflects a massive movement underway to actually measure intellectual capital … The concept is correct and we put Stewart’s work right at the front … to reinforce the importance for companies to continue defining, measuring and improving ways of generating new intellectual capital … Teaching Organizations are the needed response to today’s emphasis on knowledge creation. Today, intellectual assets trump physical assets in nearly every industry.”

Tichy asserts:

“Despite the boom and bust of the recent dot-bomb era, there is no question that we are in the early stages of an era in which technology and biotechnology will have inescapable consequences for how businesses are run and organized. The practices, systems, policies and mind-sets that prevailed in the old industrial economy will not do the job. The foregone conclusion of the late 1990s that the old industrial behemoths would be agile start-ups is equally wrong for the times.”

And he also indicates:

“Rather, we now know that the winners of the future will adapt and innovate to exploit emerging technological and social changes. They will be big, fast, and smart. The winners will create value by having a workforce that is more aligned, energized and smarter than their competitors. They will leverage size and act with speed across internal and external organizational boundaries.” [42]

A fast-paced world as of 1960?

“…As of 1960, computer chips have been built upon lithography, screen-printing that has allowed us to imprint forms as small as 100 nanometers (a nanometer is one billionth of a meter). One-hundredth of a cell. One-thousandth of a human hair. One-ten millionth the diameter of an elusive celluloid…” [194]

I believe in simplicity stemming from a profound understanding of complexity only!

Stephen Jay Gould ( http://tiny.cc/6pngc ): “Once you build a complex machine, it can perform so many unanticipated tasks. Build a computer ‘for’ processing checks at the plant, and it can also … whip anyone’s ass (or at least then them perpetually) in tic-tac-toe.” [187]

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THE PEER-TO-PEER MESSAGE AMONG IGNORAMUSES (ALSO KNOWN AS SIMPLETONS)?

Ignoramuses of supine ignorance speaking to and with other ignoramuses of supine ignorance:

“…We’ll infect you with the same orthodoxies we’ve infected everyone else in your industry...” [64]

The stubborn ones and simpletons are surrendering their lives to a little term called “simplicity”?

Gregory S. Paul and Earl Cox: “The power and complexity of computers are growing exponentially. Computers are becoming more like brains. Sometime during the next century, we will assert in the fashion of our made-up Future Flight authors that cyberdevices will become conscious and eventually will match the power of the human mind. The power of these cyberminds will extend beyond human levels in ways we cannot even imagine. These cyberbeings will proliferate in vast numbers. They will design and build a robotic supercivilization destined for outer space … The new cyberbeings will ‘mount up’ in polymorphic enclosures, intricately designed bodies able to assume any multisensory form. Their minds will be as emotional and intuitive as ours. They will be immortal. And they will be us, if we choose … We certainly will not be able to control the smart robot the way we control the car. Robots will have their own agendas and may have no use for mortals. Do not despair. It is probable that humans may be able to transfer their minds into the new cybersystems and join the cybercivilization. Not for the elite alone, anymore wishing to go robotic will be able to do so as cybercivilization spreads out into the universe. Intelligent cybertechnologies will become as cheap as small computers are today. Eventually, cybercivilization may adjust the structure of the universe itself when galaxies are networked … Do theologians have it all wrong? Whether God made humankind or not, we could create for ourselves those we could call gods. And, as it is now, it will be our willed choice to be with them or not. Scientists who understand the scale of geologic time agree; eventually, it will become as if mankind never existed. Our belief is that in some way, after we are gone forever, we will still be able to remember what, and who, we once were.” [169]

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DAKOTA TRIBAL WISDOM AND ORGANIZATIONAL STRATEGIES

“…Dakota tribal wisdom says that when you discover you’re on a dead horse, the best strategy is to dismount. Of course, there are other strategies. You can change riders. You can get a committee to study the dead horse. You can benchmark how other companies ride dead horses. You can declare that it’s cheaper to feed a dead chapter. You can harness several dead horses together. But after you’ve tried all these things, you’re still going to have to dismount…” [64]

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COMPLEXITY AND THE DEATH OF SIMPLICITY

Dr. Vernon Grose, D.Sc.: “…Government policies are influential in the macroscopic risks that threaten our lives. As a society has been transferred from simple agrarianism to a complex technologically-driven living standard, competing special interests force the government to make compromises that inevitably create risks — even the risk of war.” [99]

And Grose also argues:

Dr. Vernon Grose, D.Sc.: “The law is recognizing the trend toward complexity of life and the inability of the average person to recognize and overcome risks associated with it … Whereas our forefathers could knowingly inspect the horseshoes a blacksmith nailed on their horses’ hoofs, the average person today cannot knowledgeably inspect a microwave oven or a car’s automatic transmission.” [99]

While people insist on “simplicity” without knowing the involved sequels, see how complexity embedded in nature operates in truth!

Dr. Vernon Grose, D.Sc.: “A primary theme in Alvin Toffler’s best selling book Future Shock is that society’s rate of change is increasing. Everything around us ? including ourselves ? is rapidly changing. Nothing is stable, permanent, constant, or fixed. Neither is risk. It is an indigenous element in the volatility of life. If anything, risk expands at a greater rate than the societal rate of change ? due to its roots in uncertainty and ignorance of consequences, which multiply during mercurial instability.” [99]

The undersigned author argues, “The only manifestation of simplicity that I like and value ? so that I do not enter the deadly trap of self-lying and self-manipulation and self-downplaying every granularity in details to be solved ? is SIMPLICITY that, by virtue of exercising energetic discernment through impeccable minuteness and immaculate nuance, is derived only from the root, that root that unequivocally stems from ultimate and practical understanding of utmost complexity.”

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TO BE OR NOT TO BE IN EXECUTION?

Many scientific researchers are concluding that the act of setting the brain to reflect, make a thought, conceive an idea and so on are not matters of being abstract or only into theory. They insist that any action, deed or execution is preceded by the action of “firing” the genes that operate upon the neuro-cells, including the neurons. From these synaptic firings the self is set in motion beyond your most Dantesque imagination.

For long many ignoramuses (also known as simpletons) have insisted that they don’t think but operate, implement, institute, operate, execute, so on and so forth. It’s impossible to operate the mind (FIRST) to “COJOINTLY” operate in the physical and/or virtual worlds (SECOND) with the absolute authorization, tutelage and mandate of the brain.

Every organ and every limb exist to operate of the “life-supporting” sub-system of the greatest monarch, the brain literally. I believe that a quotation from the Far East will stage matters in greater perspectives:

Ancient Chinese Proverb: “It is not our feet that move us along — it is our minds.” [79] Will the West constituency ever get it the profoundness of the silly yet most accurate saying?

« CHAPTER 2 »
THE INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY REVOLUTION AND THE ABSENCE OF COHESIVE LANGUAGE?

For a long time some cultures have immensely insisted that word economization is vital and proper communication etiquette. In the process, too many laggards use this FALSE argument to insist that you are to speak and write briefly, even if in economizing “words” you are also economizing most vital facts to be ignored.

And this has to be accomplished for Life without becoming bureaucratic and stalemate-laden at all. On the contrary, laying the facts and figures upfront yet more comprehensively and carefully, one can proceed faster before perils and benefits to sustain profitability whatever the swirling challenges.

The Information Technology, The Society of Knowledge and the Global Village (that also embraces the “infotech economy”) are not so to be simplistic and briefer. Even before the advent of the Internet, many top corporate leaders would tell their lieutenants not to send to them memos longer than one page. Then, the corporate royal could not explain to the shareholders why a major operation, say, in Asia went so deep into red numbers.

This is a major blunder by gigantic chunks of the civilization. The Japanese and the German, to cite two examples, will always appreciate every detail. To them what is key is not the length of the document, but to be incontrovertible thorough whether in one or five hundred pages. What matters is relevance regardless of length.

Serious think tanks incumbents must go through colossal volumes of research. And, believe or not, that makes a vital difference.

Pay great attention to a letter that I will now quote by Napoleon to one of his general. Incidentally, as in the Industrial Military Complex, DARPA, and NASA if you can put any “light” or profound idea or comment is useless if it’s not documented in writing. And in operational guidelines, directives and standards anything said verbally (not in writing) has no effect at all.

Napoleon wrote to his general the ensuing:

“Your letter tells me nothing. You will however have to be able to interrogate in order to know the names of the regiments and the commanding general and a hundred things, all very important — the morale of the troops, the way in which they are fed, the strength of the different units, and what is known from conservations with the colonels and officers of the corps .... I expected several pages and I get only two lines. Redeem all that by writing me in great detail.”

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ARE YOU FIGHTING AGAINST THE “DEMON OF DECAY”?

“...In the age of revolution, the future is not an echo of the past. While every executive understands this intellectually, it is quite another thing to stand in front of your organization, and investors, and boldly confront the demon of decay. But investors and employees are smart enough to know that sooner or later every company has to a strategy ‘un-install’...” [64]

Attributed to Robert Kennedy. “...The future is not a privilege but a perpetual conquest...”

« CHAPTER 2 »
BONAPARTE’S PROPHECIES ON HURRICANE KATRINA’ AND GULF OF MEXICO’S SINCE THE NINETEENTH CENTURY

Many people have bitterness recalling of Napoleon. Many countries in Europe and especially the United States have established military doctrine on Bonaparte’s teaching. The institutionalization of this teaching is beyond official.

What I like the most about this man was his insatiable search for self-learning, and self-learning about: (1) English, (2) Mathematics, (3) Science, (4) Management, (5) Systems Approach, (6) Organization stewarding, and (7) Indisputable wisdom.

He didn’t just like these subject matters; he applied them lavishly and thus conquered Europe and even Russia through these disciplines in times in which every portion of land in that continent was waging war among neighbors. Too many kings and queens until the Emperor rose upon all of them.

By coalescing his entire beloved subject matters — both in their theoretical, empirical, and practical modes —, he indisputably birthed an array of composite stratagems. If you are as thoughtful as I think you are, the idea is to in-source your brain with empirical recommendations to formulate winning composite stratagems in your diverse entrepreneurial activities.

On geology Napoleon generally reflects:

“It is very important … to have good maps of all the country between the Adige, the Po, and the Adda … which will probably be the theater of new wars on the same scale as the large map of Italy. It is necessary to have all reconnaissances made at the Topographical Bureau of War in order that we could, if necessary, send the generals all suitable instructions. Then, from the commencement of war, they would know the defensive campaign field-works that will have to be prepared in the various positions in case of unfortunate developments .... I believe that the topographical engineers work, but I am not sure that they work according to good fundamental principles. We have them produce registers of the survey of lands and not military maps, which means that in twenty years, and I don’t know how many engineers and how much money, to map only a portion of the departments of Rhine and Moselle and Mont-Tonnerre, which are truly important. To make twenty years to finish maps and plans is to work too much posterity .... How many circumstances could occur over the next twenty years that we would regret? If one of them had been on the scale of a Cassini map we could already have had all of the Rhine frontier. How many circumstances could occur over the next twenty years where we will regret them? …” [113]

And Bonaparte adds:

“…What events can occur, even for this accumulation of paper, before we can reap any advantage from all this work? I don’t know why war is waged with this type of map … The fact is, I have not had, on my visit to the Rhine, any map where I could gain knowledge of the country. We have to draw maps of Mont-Blanc … and the Piedmont the same progress that we followed for the departments of the Rhine, nothing will be finished in our lifetime .... Engineers are too much masters of what they wish to do. I have not asked for anything other than the completion of the Cassini map. Rest assured that the operations are not directed on projects that are too vast. Experience proves that the greatest defect in general administration is to want to do too much: that results in not having what is needed … Order them especially to mark clearly the nature of the different roads, in order to distinguish those which are practicable or impracticable for artillery. If all the debouches of the Black Mountains are accurately located, this map will be one of the most essential that we could have for.” [113]

« CHAPTER 2 »
STRATEGOS INSTITUTE’S FOUNDER AND LONDON BUSINESS SCHOOL’S PROFESSOR ON THE FUTURE AND THE DERIVED ORGANIZATIONAL STRATEGY FRAMEWORK

By Gary Hamel, Ph.D. : “…We believe that the goal is not to predict the future, but to imagine a future made possible by changes in technology, life style, work style, regulation, global geopolitics, and the like. And there are as many viable futures as there as imaginative firms that can understand deeply the dynamics at work right now which hold opportunities to become the author of the new. For the future is not what will happen; the future is what is happening. The present and the future don’t abut each other, neatly divided between the five-year plan and the great unknown beyond. Rather they are intertwined. Every company is in the process of becoming — of becoming an anachronism irrelevant to the future, or of becoming the harbinger of the future. The long-term is not something that happens someday; it is what every company is building or forfeiting .... Only those who can imagine and preemptively create the future will be around to enjoy it … Creating a compelling view of tomorrow’s opportunities and moving preemptively to secure the future are tasks for neither dilettantes nor the merely intellectual curious … Other companies, the laggards, were more interested in protecting the past than in creating the future … We believe, and will argue strongly, that a company must not only get to the future first, it must get there for less .... And re-engineering charge is simply the penalty that a company must pay for not having anticipated the future .... If senior executives don’t have reasonably detailed answers to the ‘future’ set of questions, and if the answers they do have are not substantially different from the ‘today’ answers, there is little chance their companies will remain market leaders .... For much of the 1980s, IBM had been driving toward the future while looking out the rear-view mirror .... Too often, profound thinking about the future and how to shape it occurs only when present success has been substantially eroded .... Creating the future is more challenging than playing catch up, in that you have to create your own road map .... The goal is not simply to benchmark a competitor’s products and processes and imitate its methods, but to develop an independent point of view about tomorrow’s opportunities and how to exploit them. Pathbreaking is a lot more rewarding than benchmarking. One doesn’t get to the future first by letting someone else blaze the trail .... Passengers will get to the future, but their fate will not be in their own hands. Theirs profits from the future will be modest at best. Those who drive industry revolution — companies that have a clear, permeated view of where they want tom take their industry and are capable of orchestrating resources inside and outside the company to get there first — will be handsomely rewarded… The future is not an extrapolation of the past. New industrial structures will supersede old industrial structures .... Opportunities that at first blush seem evolutionary will prove to be revolutionary .... A commitment substantial enough to beget the perseverance required to create the future must be based on something more than a hunch .... But to create the future, a company must first be able to forget some of its past … ‘The future was predictable, but hardly anyone predicted it’ …” [87]

« CHAPTER 3 »
ROCKET SCIENCE ABOUT ACTUAL DISCIPLINED SUCCESS CAPTURING?

Dr. Vernon Grose, D.Sc.: “…DISCIPLINE OF THOUGHT .... As might be expected, the first set of disciplines involves thinking. The systems approach employs orderly inductive logic. That simply means to think or reason by going from particular facts to general conclusions. This type of thought is also the backbone of the scientific method. The inverse — deductive thought, which reasons from general principles to specific conclusions — is also used at times. But it is of less importance .... A second mental discipline seeks totality of understanding. The objective of this discipline is omniscience, or unlimited knowledge of a system, its use environments, and its risks. This idealistic goal is never reached, of course, even though is vigorously pursued. Two quite different kinds of understanding are combined .... Theoretically understanding is related to comprehending how all the elements in a system (for example, physical plant, products produced, personnel employed, management policies, and accounting methods) are intended to interact with one another. In contrast, practical understanding is knowing how these factors actually work together in a real world .... The third discipline of thought — continued challenge in depth — emphasizes the fact that professional managers can never relax in the comfort of all their analyzes. Constant vigilance and sustained questioning — ‘What if such and such happens?’ — is essential .... The three disciplines of thought collectively identify the problems that must be solved in the system. They also produce a qualitative picture of the system … DISCIPLINE OF TECHNIQUE .... The problems that have been identified by disciplines of thought are next resolved by a second set of disciplines — those of technique .... Specific mathematical tools used in risk management are not expounded here. However, Boolean algebra and set theory — as well as probabilistic logic, statistical mechanics, and other calculative modeling methods — are widely employed to solve complex problems [‘advanced problems’] in a system .... Complexity of most systems also forces the use of system analysis methods to solve difficult problems. Several types (for example, Fault Tree Analysis or Hazard Mode and Effect Analysis) that are used extensively in risk-related issues .... Automatic processing capability by computers makes a considerable technical contribution to solving system problems. For example, many functions formerly performed by people can be much more rapidly and efficiently done by computers .... These three problem-solving techniques, taken together, also produce quantitative assurance that the system is adequate for its intended objectives .... DISCIPLINE OF PROCEDURE … One of the greatest differences between the systems approach to problem solving and other choices lies in this third set of disciplines. In fact, it is the easiest way to tell whether a problem has been attacked systematically or not .... stimulated the establishment of procedural disciplines. Paperwork and records are anathemas to everyone who has to create them. Yet, because of complexity, it is necessary to have a documented trail, for several reasons. First, in complicated situations, objective review by someone other than the person who perform a function is generally required. Second, …, you need it not only for failure analysis but for success analysis as well! Otherwise, you have to always start over at ‘square one.’ .... There are two major disciplines of procedures. The first — system engineering procedural requirements .... Results of work completed — such as Functional Flow Block Diagrams, resource allocation sheets, and trade-off studies — are documented and retained for future reference .... Complete, unambiguous technical writing is another ideal never reached. But to the degree that the documented information is both complete and free from misunderstanding, the decision-making workload is reduced. This is true both at the time of decision and at later times of reconsideration ....” [99]

Incidentally, people erroneously think of computers whenever they hear the word “system.”

Graphics corresponding to these three disciplines are viewable at http://bit.ly/dxmXQ6

« CHAPTER 3 »
INTRODUCTORY QUOTATIONS – AND WITH COMMENTARIES – BY ENLIGHTENED MINDS!

There is a great deal of publishing about change and coping with it and its consequences. I have the firmest belief that there is a huge lack of understanding how change can change its own nature. Bacon, ensuing, makes a legendary quotation about it.

Sir Francis Bacon: “... He that will not apply new remedies must expect new evils, for time is the greatest innovator ...” [2]

Understanding the future?

“… Past or future, was a succession of violent breaks or waves, with no base at all.” [135]

How to prevail?

James Thomson (1700 - 1749) ? a Scottish poet and playwright ? argues: “ … Great trials seem to be a necessary preparation for great duties ...” [137]

Spiritual author and leadership?

John C. Maxwell (born 1947) ? an evangelical Christian author, speaker, and pastor who has written more than 50 books ? stated: “ … A leader is one who knows the way, goes the way, and shows the way ...”

What do humans wish to do with their life and universe?

Simon Conway Morris, Ph.D. : “ … Barring a daring technology in the future, human civilization will be hard-pressed to destroy or deflect incoming bolides [meteoric fireballs] and so avoid impact-driven catastrophes .... enmeshed in medieval cruelty, unwilling to face the boundlessly happy future; a future that, strange to say, is always just around the corner .... Western culture's penchant for regarding science and technology as the guarantors of indefinite progress toward some hazy but glorious future paradise ...” [118]

In 1990 Brad Leithauser, New Yorker made a lucid comment pertaining to the rate of change at that time: “…It reminds us that, in our accelerating, headlong era, the future presses so close upon us that those who ignore it inhabit not the present but the past ...” [106]

Three and Half Millenniums of Risk Management practice?

“...Moses wrote nearly 3,500 years ago: ‘ … Every new house must have a guard rail around the edge of the flat rooftop to prevent anyone from falling off and bringing guilt to both the house and its owner...'...” [99]

How really empowered and dis-empowered are we?

Stewart Brand (1968): “ ...We are as gods and might as well get good at it ...” [104]

Thirty years without education reforms in the West and the prevalent sequel going unpaid until when?

Carl Sagan: “ … We live in a society exquisitely dependent on science and technology, in which hardly anyone knows about science and technology ...” [104]

Where does the computation care the most?

The undersigned and the present material’s author: “ … Irrigate your radiant thinking irradiantly back and forth to computronium and multiverse until you start seizing actionable and applicable knowledge from those theaters of operations in which you execute ...” 4:05 a.m. USA’s EST — Monday, June 21, 2010 — [84], [85], [92]

There are many that believe to have a vested interest in fossilized pasts. To those Hamel has a word of wisdom.

Prof. Gary Hamel, Ph.D. : “ … Denial is tragic. Delay is deadly ...” [64]

Zero emotional intelligence, zero political correction, and only genuineness’?

The undersigned and the present material’s author: “ … Incessantly follow constructive your omniscience-driven bliss a Cappella without innuendos for Life ...” [92]

What can knowledge do for progress and modernity?

Edward Teller: “ … The science of today is the technology of tomorrow ...” [83]

Are you emotionally stable before the future?

Marcus Aurelius Antoninus: “ … Never let the future disturb you. You will meet it, if you have to, with the same weapons of reason which today arm you against the present ...” [96]

What computes what and through which? I just wonder!

The undersigned and the present material’s author: “ … It seems to me that Dark Matter is the Universe’s computational hardware while the Dark Energy is the Universe’s computational software ...” [111]

Concurrent paradoxes are useful to applied science?

Edward Teller: “ … Two paradoxes are better than one; they may even suggest a solution ...” [93]

The undersigned and the present material’s author: “ … The Universe embeds and/or sources computing and calculating capabilities into your prepared-mind bio computer. Whether you take advantage or not, that’s another ball game ...” [92]

Is there future cleverness? Can we ask Bill Gates about it?

Patrick Dixon: “ … Take hold of the future or the future will take hold of you — be futurewise ...” [96]

Will the immutable life-cycle will be altered with nano-technology and bio-technology?

The undersigned and the present material’s author: “ … Until the voyage through rigor mortis is completed, there had better be rigor juris only ...” [92]

Have we captured the necessary knowledge, awareness and understanding of the Twentieth-One Century ?

GBN’s CEO Eamonn Nelly: “ … We have globalized the economy and culture, but we have not yet globalized our sense of ourselves ...” [89]

From neuron activation to execution activation?

The undersigned and the present material’s author: “ … Think long enough to over-accomplish forever ...” [92]

What is the expectation?

Dr. Bernie Siegel, M.D. : “ … Hope is a memory of the future ...” [59]

What is the successful “stupid” in Twentieth-One Century ?

The undersigned and the present material’s author: “ … In order to have a successful ‘the economy first, stupid,’ you must FIRST succeed thoroughly on ‘the applied omniscience, stupid’ notion ...” — 11:07 p.m. USA’s EST — Saturday, July 18 2010 — [92]

In search of those that are searching?

T. S. Elliot: “ … We must never cease from exploring. At the end of all of our exploring will be to arrive at where we began and know the place for the first time ...” [153]

Out-of-this-box is too timid and incomplete a discernment process!

CEO Emeritus of Visa International, Dee Hock: “ … The problem is never how to get new innovative thoughts into your mind, but how to get old ones out ...” [153]

Do we respect solemnly time and its passage?

William Shakespeare (Macbeth): “ … To-morrow, and to-morrow, and to-morrow, creeps in this petty pace from day to day, to the last syllable of recorded time; and all our yesterdays have lighted fools the way to dusty death. Out, out, brief candle! Life's but a walking shadow, a poor player that struts and frets his hour upon the stage, and then is heard no more; it is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing ...” [96]

What can we do about time passage?

W. E. Gladstone — British Prime Minister — (1809 — 1898): “…You cannot fight against the future...” [17]

Future and the genius?

Ernest Dimnet: “Too often we forget that genius, too, depends upon the data within its reach, that even Archimedes could not have devised Edison's inventions.” [96]

Future-liable if you don’t pay attention?

John Galsworthy: “If you don't think about the future, you cannot have one.” [96]

Echoing the PRESENT in hindsight now?

The undersigned and the present material’s author: “The PRESENT is just the manifestation or expression of an echo in reversal by the FUTURE and/or one of its alter egos: the Universe, the Multiverse, Computronium, or Futuretronium.”

Taking ownership of times to come?

Malcolm X: “The future belongs to those who prepare for it today.” [96]

Either or what?

Anthony J. D'Angelo: “Run to meet the future or it's going to run you down.” [96]

How do we sign up by phenomenal lots of tons of smart work?

Leonard I. Sweet: “The future is not something we enter. The future is something we create.” [96]

Is too much history studying dangerous?

Michael Cibenko: “One problem with gazing too frequently into the past is that we may turn around to find the future has run out on us.” [96]

Where is the quadrant domicile of true success?

Denny Crum: “Most of our future lies ahead.” [96]

Perpetual learning for Life?

John Wayne: “Tomorrow is the most important thing in life. Comes into us at midnight very clean. It's perfect when it arrives and it puts itself in our hands. It hopes we've learned something from yesterday.” [96]

In Shock, Awe and Bewilderment for not Understanding?

Alvin Toffler: “Man has a limited biological capacity for change. When this capacity is overwhelmed, the capacity is in future shock.” [96]

Do people have an innate “love affair” with speed?

Henry Ford: “If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.” [96]

Andrew Hiles argues about the “future” (2007): “…In many senses the future will be more of the same. There will still be cross-cultural issues to deal with, different political systems, currency problems, different calendar systems, different values, completely different social structures, etc., both within Asia and between Asia and the other trading blocs. Fires will still occur, petty crime will still go on, economics will boom and dust, corruption will stay, illegal economic activities will continue, workplace problems will not go away ? and so on. The basic ‘stuff’ of business and BCP [Business Continuity Planning] will continue to provide the challenges that all organizations and businesses face. BUT THERE WILL BE NEW OR ESCALATED CHALLENGES THAT HAVE TO BE FACED...” [135]

Recalling not to fail into what?

George Santayana: “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” [99]

The larger historic perspective is good for which purpose?

Unknown author: “Those who stare at the past have their backs turned to the future.” [96]

Grave implications of contrarians to fostering change?

Max Planck: “An important scientific innovation rarely makes its way by gradually winning over and converting its opponents: What does happen is that the opponents gradually die out.” [96]

Who gets the practical and useful merit?

Thomas Edison: “I have more respect for the fellow with a single idea who gets there than for the fellow with a thousand ideas who does nothing.” [96]

Learning from the past in reversal?

Dillon Wardian: “Those who know their past are tempted to repeat it but on the winning side.” [96]

Buying your membership to the future?

Mehmet Ildan: “Future is an unknown country which requires tough visas for anyone to enter. Not all of us will get the chance to visit it.” [96]

The undersigned and the present material’s author: “Correlate everything else with the ignored and unthinkable ‘else’ of everything else forever.” [92]

In seriously rigorous thinking, there is an important maxim to bear in mind at all times. It establishes: “whatever is now working is already obsolete.” In the case of already-forewarned scientists, this implies to evolve or to radicalize the evolution of any tangibles or intangibles.

How does one discipline the mind?

Honoré de Balzac: “The mind is enabled by rigid deduction to link it with the past; and to man, the past is singularly like the future; tell him what has been, and you seldom fail to show him what will be.” [82]

Is it about inspiration, is it about knowledge or is it about both jointly?

To this end Dr. Bernie Siegel, M.D. : “I’m always saying that knowledge isn’t power if you don’t have inspiration.” [59]

How can one unleash the energies of creation?

The Yoga Sutras of Pantajali: “When you are inspired by some great purpose, some extraordinary project, all your thoughts break their bounds. Your mind transcends limitations, your consciousness expands in ever direction, and you find yourself in a new, great and wonderful world.” [153]

What can we do instead of what can we stomach and mind?

Dandridge M. Cole: “We cannot predict the future, but we can invent it.” [96]

How does one connect today with future?

“My Colleagues at the Long Foundation have helped me see the surprising connections between today and the deep future.” [78]

During the Cold War times, there is an invaluable thought about the moment’s zeitgeist.

President John F. Kennedy’s speech on September 12, 1962 at Race University: “Despite the striking fact that most of the scientists that the world has ever known are alive and working today, despite the fact that this Nation’s own scientific manpower is doubling every 12 years in a rate of growth more than three times that of our population as a whole, despite that, the vast stretches of the unknown and the unanswered and the unfinished still far outstrip our collective comprehension.” [80]

Disparate Paradigm, Zeitgeist, And Weltanschauung Into Optimal Order Via Superior Complexity?

“ ... When there is a new canonical paradigm, there is a new Zeitgeist. Accordingly, a novel Weltanschauung is enforced too. Subsequently, the paradigm, Zeitgeist, and Weltanschauung are being fluidly transformed in unison. And when such transformation is in place ? and in order to illustrate it further, the throughputted (systems approach's modus operandi) outputs are: the resulting parlance, behavior, techniques, methodologies, science, and realities (real, virtual, and blended ones) change as well .... Above all, this is going to change the way we think concerning the world. And whenever we change the way we think regarding the world, we discover new ideas that foster changing the world for the better. Ergo, this is all about most serious innovation .... Alvin Toffler has indicated the need of new definitions (so did Peter Drucker). Stephen Covey observes that language has become an issue that energizes him into seeking and using most underlying terms. Come to think of it, both are talking of a similar challenge coped with under two views that are intimately intertwined. (COMMENTARY: Let’s consider very seriously, ‘…Everything is related to everything else…’). That’s why I speak about ‘CHANGED CHANGE.’ Changed Changes are changes easily triggered by a fluid plethora of cross impacts of diverse nature. What cross impacts? Exactly those ones that bring about unprecedented points of inflections. Now, imagine an era (exactly this one) besieged by perpetual points of inflections, in which such ever-unprecedented events are taking place increasingly more frequently and more universally. These incessant points of inflections are the presence, cause, and consequence of changed change…” By Futuretronium’s author.

“Past Versus Now Caparison” now available in slides is a good graphic perspective of the impact of change. [93]

The Chairman and CEO of the Juran Institute, A. Blantow Godfrey, in 1995 indicated to this end: “What we know today is far greater than what we knew a few years ago.” [91]

What kind of a keel does a vessel need to explore the unexplored with the unthinkable thinking perspective?

“At the beginning of this book I used river rafting as an analogy for the future. But perhaps sailing is a better metaphor.” [78]

How early your punctuality must be?

M.El Banna: “The only way you can see the future is if you're ahead of your own time.” [96]

Are we lacking what type of understanding?

Dr. Gargosian: “We are walking toward the edge of a cliff—blindfolded … Our ability to understand the potential for future abrupt changes in climate is limited by our lack of understanding of the processes that control them.” [78]

There is an important scientific truism to bear in mind at any cost. It ensues, “everything is related to everything else.”

Through absolute cognition and scientific methodology application, How does one identify the driving forces of underneath that will re-shape it all?

“This is not fortune-telling. This is not crystal-ball gazing. This is merely describing future implications of something that has already happened.” [78]

Will we ever understand that what really doesn’t exist at all is the PRESENT — so called? And that what we call PRESENT is a brief interim from and by the FUTURE?

Andrei Linde: “It was never easy to look into the future, but it is possible and we should not miss our chance.” [96]

Some of the problems we have might be explicated here. Ensuing:

Mrs. Manley (1663 — 1724) — English novelist and playwright: “No time like the present.” [2] The only problem, Mrs. Manley, is that your beloved “present” is beyond impermanent.

Rehearsing into authentic own omniscience-based bliss?

The undersigned and the present material’s author: “Within all genuineness, rehearse and practice who you want to be and what you want to be in execution.” [92]

Where is our north’s domicile?

Jean-Marie Guyau: “The future is not what is coming at us, but what we are headed for.” [96]

The future, the West, Europe and the ensuing perspective.

Count Lev Nikolaevich Tolstoi (1828 — 1910): “…I am convinced that the history of so-called scientific work in our famous centuries of European civilization will, in a couple of hundred years, represent an inexhaustible source of laughter and sorrow for future generations. The learned men of the small western part of our European continent lived for several centuries under the illusion that the eternal blessed life was the West’s future. They were interested in the problem of when and where this blessed life would come. But they never thought of how they were going to make their life better...” [69]

A perspective that might prove helpful somewhat now:

Horace Mann (1796 — 1859) — American educationist: “Lost, yesterday, somewhere between Sunrise and Sunset, two golden hours, each set with sixty diamond minutes. No reward is offered, for they are gone forever.” [2]

Success comes along with tons and tons of smart and smarter work!

Gifford Pinchot: “The vast possibilities of our great future will become realities only if we make ourselves responsible for that future.” [93]

When evolution gets radicalized in applied science, a so-called breakthrough takes place. Hence, Einstein makes the case now.

Albert Einstein: “It has become appallingly obvious that our technology has exceeded our humanity … We shall require a substantially new manner of thinking if mankind is to survive.” [4]

If every one of the seven continents have been discovered, Is there anyone missing yet? What about a continent — not yet known — that is lightly covered by the sea oceans, but with the global climate crisis might appear? I just wonder!

“This bridge to the future will enable those who dare to make the journey from this century to the next … and beyond.” [78]

The quotation about Physics, History, Education, Mathematics and the Future.

“The future of Thought, and therefore of History, lies in the hands of the physicists, and … the future historian must seek his education in the world of mathematical physics. A new generation must be brought up to think by new methods, and if our historical departments in the Universities cannot enter this next phase, the physical departments will have to assume this task alone.” [69]

In understanding at least the complexities embedded in the Universe, there is an Englishman with a great perspective. His quote ensues:

G.K. Chesterton (1874 — 1936), Essayist, Novelist, and Poet: “The real trouble with this world of ours is not that it is an unreasonable world, nor that it is a reasonable one. The commonest kind of trouble is that it is nearly reasonable, but not quite. Life is not an illogicality; yet is a trap for logicians. It looks just a little more mathematical and regular than it is; its exactitude is obvious, but its inexactitude is hidden, its wildness lies in wait.” [57]

What are intelligence and the brain’ and genome’s projected mind good for?

R. W. Young: “Intelligence is that faculty of mind by which order is perceived in a situation previously considered disordered.” [78]

In making the case against the so-called “power of simplicity” and countering the existence of complexity, chiefly in an age bathed of enormous complexities, there are two prominent minds to quote.

In one instance, Dr. Albert Einstein points out: “The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of thinking we were at when we created them.” [153] [60] In supporting this motion further, Dr. Aubrey de Grey establishes: “To solve a very complicated problem, you generally need a fairly complicated solution [in advance].” [59]

In the mean time, zillions and jillions will insist many times over that tackling complexities are needless, especially when doing easy “stuff” is ubiquitously fun and available. Then, Dr. Bertrand Russell will be gravely forewarning them of his famous sentence: “…I know of more people who'd rather die than think...”

Regarding people into imprudence, ignorance and not making reasonable decisions, Where can we get additional underpinnings?

Francisco José de Goya y Lucientes (30 March 1746 — 16 April 1828): “The sleep of reason produces monsters.” [98]

Does age indeed become a liability in showing the futuristic lights of modernity and TRUE justice?

Mae Wets: “…You’re never too old to become younger...” [78]

Most people think that this is the “knowledge society” or the “knowledge economy” (that also embraces the “infotech economy”), because they can do “networking” — so-called — (whether fruitful or not) over the web and above the face of Earth via a technological platform termed the Internet. Look at the following take by Noel M. Tichy:

“We have made the case throughout this book, and most people agree, that in the new ‘knowledge economy’ the key to winning is maximizing human capital. Ideas and knowledge have replaced physical goods as the most valued commodities in the global marketplace. Consequently, brains, energy and talent — human capital — are the primary source of value creation. But while many people and organizations grasp the concept, few have figured out how to really utilize the talents and knowledge of everyone in the company, especially the younger members of the company.” [42]

From mysticism to science, the future and an interesting quotation.

Rosario M. Levins: “Mythical thought is not pre-scientific; rather it anticipates the future state of being a science in that its past movement and its present direction are always in the same sense.” [69]

Charles Franklin Kettering (August 29, 1876 — November 24 or November 25, 1958) was an American inventor and the holder of 140 patents. He was a founder of Delco, and was head of research for General Motors for 27 years from 1920 to 1947. He had a solid quotation about the future: “…The future is where I expect to spend the rest of my life...” [111]

The quotation on analytics, science and future. Ensuing:

Charles Babbage (1792 — 1871): “The whole of the developments and operations of analysis are now capable of being executed by machinery … As soon as an Analytical Engine exists, it will necessary guide the future course of science.” [69]

One of America’ and the world’s greatest and most rigorous intellect with a perspective embedded in the future. He, Mr. Henry Buckminster Fuller, successfully tackles a continuously and increasingly puzzling problem. As follows:

Richard Buckminster Fuller reminds us of the following: “Either war is obsolete, or men are.” [5]

Speaking seriously as I do in the entirety of this textbook, some scientific research preliminary yet unconfirmed outcomes and findings seem to suggest that the future rules the present. The German philosopher Nietzsche has his own lucid position. “It’s our future that lays down the law of our today.” [110]

The quotation about the study, the past and the future.

Stuart A. Copans: “…Study the past if you would divine the future...” [69]

The quotation abut foretelling: Unknown: “Declare the past, diagnose the present, [and] foretell the future.” [69]

By unknown author: “The future belongs to science and to those who make friends with science.” [69]

By unknown author this quotation is about the atom, uncertainty, science and the future. Following: “…bodies in the universe and those of the lightest atom; to it nothing would be uncertain, and the future as the past would be present to its eyes.” [69]

The Prometheus Bound quotation.

Aeschylus (453 BC):

“Prometheus: My mother …
foretold me, that not brute strength
Not violence, but cunning must give victory
To the rulers of the future.” [69]

What to learn about what has happened?

By unknown author: “It is bad enough to know the past; it would be intolerable to know the future.” [69]

Elliot on the present and the past.

T. S. Elliot (1888 — 1965):

“Time present and time past
Are both perhaps present in time future,
And time future contained in time past.” [70]

The past, the future and the interlude that connects both.

Eugene O’Neill (1888 — 1953): “The only living life is in the past and future … the present is an interlude … strange interlude in which we call on past and future to bear witness we are living.” [70]

Bismarck and his lack of faith on the future.

A. J. P. Taylor (1906 — 1990): “…Bismarck was a political genius of the highest rank, but he lacked one essential quality of the constructive statesman: he had no faith in the future...” [70]

God, the nineteenth and twenty centuries, as well as the future.

Max Frisch (1911 — 1991): “…In the nineteenth century the problem was that God is dead; in the twentieth century the problem is that man is dead. In the nineteenth century inhumanity meant cruelty; in the twentieth century it means schizoid self-alienation. The danger of the future is that men may become robots...” [70]

Who does the future belong to?

Pierre Trudeau (1919 — 2000): “…The twentieth century really belongs to those who will build it. The future can be promised to no one...” [70]

Foreseeing the Future out of the Fossilized Past?

Edmund Burke (1729 – 1797, an Irish statesman, author, orator, political theorist, and philosopher): “…You can never plan the future by the past...” [70]

It’s advantageous to understand what a prominent 120-year-old corporation such as GE is now considering.

This quote is attributed to GE’s current CEO, Jeff Immelt: “…I have to lead for tomorrow’s world...”

Question: How is the future manufactured?

Reply by Prof. Gary Hamel, Ph.D. : “…The future is the creation of millions of independent economic actors...” [64]

In speaking of change and social systems’ reactions, it is wise to listen to Ralph Waldo Emerson: “There are always two parties — the party of the past and the party of the future, the establishment and the movement.” [64] As per the Oxford Dictionary, The Establishment refers to: “…social group exercising authority or influence, and generally seeking to resist change.” [65]

We cannot solve problems planted in the past. But we can solve problems to come (in the future). Ergo, former U.S. president Roosevelt makes a great appeal.

Theodore Roosevelt: “All the resources we need are in the mind.” [7]

A take regarding time progression and retrogression, Sir James Jeans establishes:

Sir James Jeans — English Astronomer, physicist, and mathematician — (1877 — 1946) : “Taking a very gloomy view of the future of the human race, let us suppose that it can only expect to survive for two thousand million years longer, a period about equal to the past age of the earth. Then, regarded as a being destined to live for three score-years and then humanity, although it has been born in a house seventy years old, is itself three days old.” [17]

It is indispensable to create whatever future you conceive by and for yourself. Is there a better tool than your most cultivated and prepared mind thinking in unthinkables? Please quit now that foolish intuitiveness à la (the pre-“Cro-Magnon”) Savannah thinking, since this is a different temporal locus for certain. See Emerson’s take:

Ralph Waldo Emerson writes: “Man hopes; Genius creates.” [8]

In order to work for the matters that make us hope, we must bluntly face the matters that besiege our own existence, the ones elicited by us and the ones elicited by the people that we don’t even like. Dr. Knowles, a connoted American and greatly regarded into adult education, has a lucid position that can serve us as a starting point. Following:

Dr. Malcolm Knowles Ph.D. addresses ignoramuses (also known as simpleton) of supine ignorance: “The greatest danger for the survival of the present civilization is neither atomic war, nor environmental pollution, nor the exploitation of natural resources, and nor present crises. The underlying cause to all of the above is the acceleration of man’s obsolescence … The only hope seems to be an electroshock program to re-instill to the present adults the competencies required to function adequately under a mode of perpetual change. This is a profound need — the immeasurable challenge — that is presented by the modern society to adult education.” [112]

The Disraeli’s wise take:

Benjamin Disraeli — British Prime Minister — (1804 — 1881): “…Conservatism discards Prescription, shrinks from Principle, disavows Progress; having rejected all respect for antiquity, it offers no redress for the present, and makes no preparation for the future...” [17]

Former Federal Supreme Court Justice Sandra O’Connor gave a brief interview in 2009. She is mobilized into telling people that children and youngsters must be taught both (a) Civics and (b) History.

Clearly, having seen so much mistaken people led to grave imprisonment sentences, O’Connor indicates that many of the people did not understand the basics about (1) living civilly in society, (2) respecting the mandates of the “Law Of The Land,” and (3) understanding where society and, in her case, the U.S. comes from (through systematic study of history) to comprehend where are we likely to go or not.

On education and to this end, Dr. Skinner made an important point.

Dr. Burrhus Frederic Skinner Ph.D. , “Education is what survives when what has been learned has been forgotten.” [9]

Is there a path to prevailing?

Ralph Waldo Emerson: “That which we persist in doing becomes easier for us to do; not that the nature of the thing itself is changed, but that our power to do is increased.” [156]

Fromm makes a point that supplements, to some extent, Knowles’ and Skinner’s point of view:

Erich Fromm — American philosopher and physiologist — (1900 — 1980): “…In the nineteenth century the problem was that God is dead; in the twentieth century the problem is that man is dead. In the nineteenth century inhumanity meant cruelty; in the twentieth century it means schizoid self-alienation. The danger of the past was that men became slaves. The danger of the future is that men may become robots...” [17]

What is the inner-workings of time as per Orwell? Ensuing:

George Orwell (1903 — 1950): “…Who controls the future; who controls the present controls the past … If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face — forever...” [17]

Question: Is this is a mistake universally made by the great majority? Meaning:

Edmund Burke (1729 – 1797, an Irish statesman, author, orator, political theorist, and philosopher): “You can never plan the future by the past.” [17]

What are we expecting?

Horace (65 — 8 BC): “While we’re talking, envious time is fleeing: seize the day, but no trust in the future … The year and the hour which rob us of the fair day warn us not to hope for things to last for ever.” [17]

How can we state the bond between the future and past:

Eugene O’Neill (1888 — 1953): “The only living life is in the past and future … the present is an interlude … strange interlude in which we call on past and future to bear witness we are living.” [17]

Elliot further adds creativity to understanding time:

T.S. Elliot — Thomas Stearns Elliot — (1888 — 1965):

“Time present and time past
Are both perhaps present in time future,
And time future contained in time past.” [17]

We see a host of manufacturers of all types of products, including automakers and their cars. In great many cases and as people have been concerning about being so-called “global winners” in their respective industries, they were adding to their products more and more features. Features equate with “increased complexities.”

That is, they were adding great complexity while defying that the whole is greater than the sum of the parts.

Evidently, you can add every thinkable and unthinkable “complexity” to your products, as long as you greatly upgrade the scrutinizing vista of the entirety of the systems and the dynamic interactions among (i) hardware (amplest meaning), (ii) software (amplest meaning), and (iii) humans themselves (both the ones represented by the manufacturers as well as those being end users).

Since you cannot use the same knowledge repository in making the features-adding-to-your-products effort, you’d better pay attention to Einstein’s wise words.

Albert Einstein: “The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of thinking we were at when we created them.” [153]

In the seventeenth century Milton made a point that in my opinion is valid today. In arguing to free technology, capable of great good but also of great evil, John Milton (1644) expressed majestic confidence in our ability to prevail: “Lords and Commons of England, consider what Nation it is whereof we are, and whereof ye are the governors: a Nation not slow and dull, but of quick, ingenious, and piercing spirit, acute to invent, subtle and sinewy to discourse, not beneath the reach of any point the highest that human capacity can soar to.” [52] This has been the point of view of an Englishman about England.

Nicholas von Hoffman — an American's view on England elicited to other Americans and author of the book “A Devil’s Dictionary of Business” (2005), ISBN 1-56025-712-1 — indicated: “…England ... the land whence American business sprang, a fact that may come as news to Americans, who believed that everything good and worthwhile has its origins in the United States. The foundations of English business practices go back to late-medieval Italy and sixteenth-century Holland, but they had taken on distinctive forms of their own by the time the London stock market opened in 1690. Thenceforth, if not earlier, North American business copied the English, particularly as English businessmen put steam technology to work to foment the Industrial Revolution. Not only did England lead the world with the invention of such trifles as the railroad, but the great early nineteenth-century American advances in canal and railroad building were paid for by English investors...” [62]

Was Thomas Jefferson America’s first futurist? He proclaimed:

Thomas Jefferson: “...I am captivated more by dreams of the future than by history of the past....” [11]

Speaking of not changing the current state of affairs, Dr. Kissinger, especially addressed for people how to approach this maxim: “first, foremost: never do not harm,” (mostly taken from the Latin sentence: “Primum non nocere”) by stating:

Dr. Henry Kissinger addresses: “An ignored issue is an invitation to a problem.” [12]

Former U.K. Prime Minister Churchill is incontrovertibly considered by many one of the greatest political intellects. He had a great position on the future, stating:

Sir Winston Churchill: “The empires of the future are the empires of the mind.” [13]

There are many fallacies and ill-conceived assumptions and outdated conventions ? plus socially-engineered and otherwise misconceptions ? that even smart people hold dearly without subjecting said fallacies and assumptions to great testing to attempt to disprove them to gain further insight and mental acuity of what holds true and what doesn’t.

Whose cherished beliefs are folly?

Antonio Machado: “The eye is not an eye because you see it. The eye is an eye because it sees you.” [14]

After the insight by Machado, there is additional thoughtfulness along these lines:

The Panchatantra (body of Eastern philosophical knowledge) <>: “Knowledge is the true organ of sight, not the eyes.” [15]

Seeing through the eyes of applied science (and actionable omniscience) is, in my view, the optimum mode and here lies further food for thought:

Bernard d'Espagnat: “Even if the Universe is a little myopic is true that, more than others, MEN OF SCIENCE ARE ITS EYES.” [16]

How do you operate the sensors of the sight?

Mark Twain: “You cannot depend on your eyes when your imagination is out of focus.” [172]

How to reset the switching of sight?

Theodore Roethke: “In a dark time, the eye begins to see.” [191]

Drucker was blamed often of self-praising himself about his capability of foretelling the future. This is his take on it:

Peter Drucker: “Things that have already happened but whose consequences have not been realized [because they were not imagined, considered, scrutinized or envisioned by disciplined foresight and far-sight extending and expanding both sides of the human brain] … Don’t confuse movement with progress.” [17]

In a 2009 interview to Charlie Rose Show, Nobel laureate Dr. James D. Watson, Ph.D. indicated: “…Science gives society a great sense of decisive freedom...” [18]

Reinforcing the motion by Dr. Watson, Edmund Burke (1729 — 1797) argues “Education is the cheap defense of nations.” [152]


There has never been a greater importance to the most sophisticated education, especially to science, math, and engineering (and most of the times, the three of them simultaneously). The ensuing quotation accordingly goes:

Arthur C. Clarke: “…We have to abandon the idea that schooling is something restricted to youth. How can it be, in a world where half the things a man knows at 20 are no longer true at 40 — and half of the things he knows at 40 hadn’t been discovered when he was 20?...” [19]

Regardless of how difficult, every responsible adult must assume the difficulties of the present realities. Then, s/he can establish a plan of action to work through those realities to overcome those realities. Khan offers important insight now.

Otto Herman Khan: “…Clearly, the first task is to gain acceptance of a more reasonable view of the future, one that opens possibilities rather than forecloses them...” [20]

Time and action are invaluable resources. Verify the ensuing quotation:

General Francisco de Miranda: “Time is the context by means of which action is delivered.” [21]

Unthinkable thinking will increasingly prove itself the most sensible decision. The greatest in-commonality to the commonsensical commons.

What is lying ahead?

Oscar Wilde: “To expect the unexpected shows a thoroughly modern intellect.”

To be capitalistic in general requires having a good “relationship” with machines and even increasingly sophisticated automation. By every account, Mrs. Katharine Hepburn is a great democratic and civilized person and never a prominent activist of anything else but the center, made a wonderful claim. As follows:

Mrs. Katharine Hepburn: “Nature … is what we are put in this world to rise above.” [52]

Daring circumstances are for the tough-minded, resilient, resolved, as well as for those who combine boldness with prudence.

Ella Wheeler Wilcox: “There is no chance, no destiny, no fate that can circumvent, hinder or control the firm resolve of a determined soul.”

How do freedom, security, safety, reliability, reason coalesce and intertwine?

Sir Karl Popper: “We must plan for freedom, and not only for security [and safety and reliability], if for no other reason than that only [exceedingly educated] freedom can make security secure [and safety safe and reliability reliable].” [51]

If one does not about a subject matter, What should he or her do?

An Air Force Colonel who repeated it frequently... “It's better to remain silent and be thought a fool that open your mouth and remove any doubt.”

Before challenging situations, don’t rule it out or oversimplify it without first trying to research those situations and begin asking both silly and exuberant questions lavishly.

In second-guessing responsibly the future, not to foretell but to make mental options for omni-mode preparedness to avoid being strategically surprised, I recommend the following:

Alan Turing (1950) specified: “…We can only see a short distance ahead, but we can see plenty there that needs to be done...”

Many were complaining about the uniqueness of the ideas and reflections by some people with profound analytic abilities. Those complains were aired to a colonel who listened up and kept silence. UNTIL THE U.S. AIR FORCE COLONEL ANSWERED BACK AND WHO REPEATED IT FREQUENTLY: “It's better to remain silent and be thought a fool that open your mouth and remove any doubt.”

« CHAPTER 3 »
THE FUTURE AND THE TECHNOLOGICAL SINGULARITY AS PER RAY KURZWEIL, PH.D.

From Boston and dated June 02, 2010 I received an e-mail with an invitation to a documentary film on the future, the technological singularity, to be developed by Dr. Ray Kurzweil, Ph.D.

Inventor Ray Kurzweil is one of the world’s leading futurists, with a 20 year track record of accurate predictions. Called the “restless genius” by The Wall Street Journal and “the ultimate thinking machine” by Forbes magazine, Kurzweil was selected as one of the top entrepreneurs by Inc. magazine, which described him as the “rightful heir to Thomas Edison.”

Inventor of the first CCD flat bed scanner and many other firsts, Kurzweil is an inductee in the National Inventors Hall of Fame and recipient of the National Medal of Technology, the Lemelson-MIT Prize (the world’s largest for innovation), and 19 honorary doctorates and awards from three U.S. presidents.

In the message contained in that e-mail it is indicated:

Beginning of citation as per the invitation via e-mail on “The Singularity is Near” film.

“…In The Singularity Is Near and Chairman of the Singularity University (supported by NASA and Google and operated on NASA Ames Research Campus) predicts that with the ever-accelerating rate of technological change, humanity is fast approaching an era in which our intelligence will become trillions of times more powerful and increasingly merged with computers. This will be the dawning of a new civilization, enabling us to transcend our biological limitations. In Kurzweil’s post-biological world, boundaries blur between human and machine, real and virtual. Human aging and illness are reversed, world hunger and poverty are solved, and we cure death. He maintains a radically optimistic view of the future course of human development while acknowledging profound new dangers...”

“…According to Bill Gates, ‘Kurzweil is the best person I know at predicting the future,’... “Kurzweil envisions a future in which information technologies have advanced so far and fast that they enable humanity to transcend its biological limitations — transforming our lives in ways we can’t yet imagine...”

“...Kurzweil, through his extensive works (including in his the feature-length documentary film), examines the social and philosophical implications of these profound changes and the potential threats they pose to human civilization in dialogues with big thinkers, including former White House counter-terrorism chief Richard A. Clarke; technologists Bill Joy, Mitch Kapor, Marvin Minsky, Eric Drexler, Sherry Turkle and Cynthia Breazeal; Future Shock author Alvin Toffler; civil liberties lawyer Alan Dershowitz; venture capitalist Vinod Khosla and environmentalist Bill McKibben...”

Final citation of as per the invitation via e-mail on “The Singularity is Near” film.

« CHAPTER 3 »
WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW? HOW MANY “NOWS” ARE THERE? ARE THOSE “NOWS” STILL RELEVANT?

Swift and swirling change, peril, complexity, and newness do not function alone. They are deeply inter-meshed, interactive, and transforming, as well as transformational. Using the genetic and biological parlance, you’d better believe that this a multi-fold epoch, evermore unfolding, in which mutations and transmutations are taking place across the board, not just in the chemist’s laboratory.

When speaking about “FUTURE” as the undersigned is speaking about change, there is included positive change and negative change. However, the emphasis is to underpin the upside changes and to cripple the downside changes.

From 1999 to 2006, we can cite several points of inflections [135] in the dynamics of changed changes:

(1) The ‘Millennium Bug’
(2) Terrorist attacks in the United States (11 September 2001), in Madrid (March 2004), in London (7 July 2005) and in Mumbai (July 2006)
(3) The Buncefield industrial disaster (December 2005)
(4) Hurricanes Katrina and Rita during the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season
(5) The wide-area East Cost U.S., London and European power outages in 2003
(6) The SARS communicable disease outbreak in 2003

You can open up new doors for yourself, see new options, minimize significant mistakes, and maximize potential understandings. In order for you to act decisively successful, you’d better have a lucid comprehension of said understanding for Life. A lucid comprehension will come to you by the greatest — tough and subtle — omni-mode and through the most insidious application of the scientific method, especially through exact sciences aiming solely to the state-of-the-art generation.

Because of the forces exerted by the FUTURE upon the PRESENT, this Era-streaming eons rises ambiguity, ambivalence, dichotomy, uncertainty, complexity, conflict, bewilderment and yet unprecedented possibilities.

It’s greatly convenient recalling the luminescent thought by the prominent German philosopher, Friedrich Wilhelm Nietzsche: “...It’s our future that lays down the law of our today...” [110]

It’s advantageous to understand what a prominent 120-year-old corporation such as GE is considering since September 2001. This quote is attributed to GE’s current CEO, Jeff Immelt: “...I have to lead for tomorrow’s world...” What about you? Will you lead for yesterday's world?

It is for leaders to fall into the trap of thinking that planning ahead and building for the FUTURE is an incredible luxury of inaccuracy. IT IS NOT. IT IS AN ABSOLUTE AND MOST INDISPENSABLE NECESSITY FOR LIFE.

But anyone who underestimates the revolutionary character of today’s changes is living a too-uncontrolled an illusion.

Zen Buddhists will offer you unprecedented lectures on reality being the greatest mental “fabrication” by the hominid's mind. The world, that of physical “existence” and manufactured by the mind, is being transformed dramatically and irrevocably, second by second all of the time.

Juxtapositions of many knowledge dominions will bring about the greatest scientific convergence ever in the years ahead. Some people like James Canton suggest these forces becoming and rendering “weird science” in every sphere in our lives. [22]

With each passing day, change quickens everyday at a faster-and-faster, nonlinear, discontinuous and counter-intuitive rate. In the mean time, Evelyn Lindner reminds us of the following: “...Pessimism is a luxury of good times … In difficult times, pessimism is a self-fulfilling, self-inflicted death sentence...”

Tichy made a relevant contribution to understanding the nature of swirling changes. I quote some of his excerpts:

“...Speed and constant motion are the hallmark characteristics of life in the twenty-first century. The driving / enabling force behind them is the technology that allows almost instant access to information, and with each advance in technology the concept of ‘fast’ is only going to get faster...”

And Tichy added:

“…This access comes not only in the form of the ability to move data around the world in nanosecond (one billionth,10— 9, of a second), but also in the ability to sift through and manipulate it. Patterns and trends that were impossible to see in the days when information [based on throughput-ed numerical and narrative data] was housed in mainframe computers that required IT professionals to access, are now readily visible to anyone with a PC and a hookup who cares to apply a few screens...”

Subsequently, he continues:

“Moreover, as technology shrinks the cycle between an action, a reaction and a re-reaction, it becomes possible for people who might otherwise never be in direct contact to engage in a nearly constant flow of dialogue. The result is not only that technicians in Bangalore, India, and Waukesha, Wisconsin, can seamlessly work on the same project, passing it off as the day ends in one hemisphere and begins in the other, but also that a newly hired consultant at EDS can have a meaningful dialogue via videos and e-mails with CEO Dick Brown about what he sees in his territory.”

And Tichy observes:

“Meanwhile, markets for goods and services and the capital markets change directions with astounding speed. Consumer trends [because of the multitude of driving forces that propels said forces] are in a state of constant flux as a flood of new products [and services] appears every day to supplant older ones that often have been around only a few months themselves.”

And he carries on:

“…Market expansions morph into contractions seemingly overnight. It isn’t that the cycles are getting closer together. The economic expansion of the 1990s was one of the longest in U.S. history. Rather, it is the momentum when they turn that has accelerated. On March 13, 2000, the NASDAQ composite index peak at 5132. By April 14, it slumped into 3265, a loss of nearly 40% in one month. In such a volatile environment, the ability to grow, shrink and redeploy assets quickly and intelligently is a critical competence for survival...”

Incidentally:

The Society of Knowledge (that of the ruling Intellectual Capital) is a world with absolutely no space at all for personal (individual) or collective (a) under-developing status and (b) developing quality stemming from the in-operation frame of reference. Gargantuan competence, forever updated and upgraded, will be more indispensable than water and oxygen.

And Tichy asserts:

“…What has happened so far is just a preview. We have only scratched the surface in using the capabilities of the current technology, not to mention the new technologies and capabilities that are coming on stream every day...”

Tichy points out as well:

“The earliest uses of most new technologies are at making old processes work better. Once computers came out of the science labs, their first mainstream uses were for such things as automating accounting and inventory controls. These applications were valuable in that they got the bills out faster and let a company make better purchasing and scheduling decisions. But once you consider the activities required for entry and retrieval, some weren’t much more effective in terms of cost or time consumption than doing things the old way.”

In understanding scales and accurate senses of proportions and depth, Tichy asserted in 2004:

“…The GDP of the developed world — the United States, European Community and Japan with a total population of about 750 million — is more than $23 trillion. The rest of the world, including China with 1.2 billion people and India with about 1.2 billion people and India with about 1 billion people, lives on less than $3 trillion in GDP. Take the world’s five largest companies, GE, Exxon/Mobil, Microsoft, Pfizer and Wal-Mart — their market capitalization is bigger than the GDP of India...”

As Tichy concluded making his case. [42]

« CHAPTER 3 »
METHOD FIRST, TECHNOLOGY SECOND!

In business and competing in the global markets, it is really important to count with optimum technology. Technology is going to be changing and changing almost without limits.

However, there are many techniques and tools — as well as practices — to discipline the mind to make more judicious and expedient decisions and hence executions. In fact, I will insist that technologies are a function of mind-expansion methods. An exhibit on this is available at http://bit.ly/bGd8kf

« CHAPTER 4 »
DEEPENING OUR MULTIDIMENSIONAL APPROACH IN AND TO THIS BOOK!

To further set the stage for this material, the textbook “Einstein in the Boardroom” by Suzanne S. Harrison and Patrick H. Sullivan Sr. may offer some lucid ideas on the “current” state of affairs when they claim:

“…Humans have been adding to their total knowledge steadily over the centuries, and the amount of knowledge we create is multiplying at an incredible rate. BEGINNING WITH THE AMOUNT OF KNOWLEDGE IN THE KNOWN WORLD AT THE TIME OF CHRIST, STUDIES HAVE ESTIMATED THAT THE FIRST DOUBLING OF THAT KNOWLEDGE TOOK PLACE ABOUT 1700 A.D. THE SECOND DOUBLING OCCURRED AROUND THE YEAR 1900. IT IS ESTIMATED TODAY THAT THE WORLD'S KNOWLEDGE BASE WILL DOUBLE AGAIN BY 2010 AND AGAIN AFTER THAT BY 2013...” [37]

In stating some clear fact of applied science progression, President John F. Kennedy’s speech on September 12, 1962 at Race University: “Within these last 19 months at least 45 satellites have circled the earth. Some 40 of them were ‘made in the United States of America’ and they were far more sophisticated and supplied far more knowledge to the people of the world than those of the Soviet Union .... The growth of our science and education will be enriched by new knowledge of our universe and environment, by new techniques of learning and mapping and observation, by new tools and computers for industry, medicine, the home as well as the school.” [80]

In a treatise concerning the “Principles of Human Knowledge,” George Berkeley (1865 – 1753) sustains: “…We have first raised a dust [science, technology and progress] and then complain [because our most determined decision of not taking our own education and enculturation further] we cannot see [understand the world upon which we dare to stand upon]...” [130]

There are many serious publications, from 2003 to this date, speaking of the entirety of scientific knowledge doubling every five (5) years and sooner. How, then, can one undertake such a gargantuan challenge, through the “Society of Knowledge” (that also embraces the “infotech economy”), unless it is through the stewardship of the most rigorous and advanced scientific method?

The future is only into its own thing!

“… So that the future is independent of the past given the present .... ” [192]

The American Heritage Dictionary’s Introduction (fourth edition, 2000) by Joseph P. Pickett, Executive Director, literally indicates, to further illustrate the reader, [54]:

“…This Fourth Edition of The American Heritage Dictionary combines the best of traditional making with key innovations that afford new ways of looking at our language… This edition has nearly 10,000 new words and senses that reflect the rapid pace of change in the English language today. Technological innovations in computing and communications along with advances in the sciences have been especially rich sources of development in the lexicon (for example, bit map, domain name, and raster in computing; dark matter, photonics, and yoctosecond in science). Medicine and medical research continue to produce an astonishing array of new terms for chemicals and substances (endostatin, leptin, transfatty acid), for disorders and infectious agents (Asperger’s syndrome, erectile dysfunction, hantavirus), for treatment (cocktail, molecular knife, xenotransplant), and for a variety of creations and discoveries (designer gene, enteric nervous system, microsleep) .... In addition, continuing social change in postindustrial society has given rise to expressions that describe new business practices (buyback, microcredit, reverse mortgage), a changing workplace (face time, job-share, mommy track), and evolving political positions and governmental policies (family leave, term limit, workfare). New sports terms have arisen (clap skate, five hole, skyboard), as have words for new educational practices (charter school, distance learning, homeschool). The names of foods from other cultures continue to be adopted (baba gannouj, garam masala, quesadilla). A host of new cultural developments has produced a host of new compound cords (assisted living, poetry slam, shock jock). And English speakers continue to be an exuberance force in creative coinage (bloviate, newbie, wannabe) .... To ensure accuracy in the coverage of our rapidly changing vocabulary, we have worked closely with distinguished consultants in a wide variety of specialized fields, including anthropology, astronomy, genetics, immunology, philosophy, and physics, to name but a few. We have also gone to great lengths to make our biological and geographic entries as timely as possible. Many new biographical entries have been added, especially in the areas of sports, music, film-making, and literature. To the geographic entries we have added new country names, such as Myanmar and the Republic of Congo, and newly prominent places such as Kosovo .... ”

Learning about the futures?

Virginia Postrel: “…the future is alive. Like the present, the future is not a single, uniform state but an ongoing process that reflects the plenitude of human life. There is in fact no single future; ‘the’ future encompasses the many microfutures of individuals and their associations. It includes all the things we learn about ourselves and the world, all the incremental improvements we discover, all our new ideas, and all the new ways we express and recombine them. As a system, the future is natural, out of anyone’s control, though is driven by the artificial: by individual attempts … This open-ended future can’t be contained in the vision of a single person or organization. And … it is something we can never be caught up with .... HOW WE FEEL ABOUT THE EVOLVING FUTURE TELLS US WHO WE ARE AS INDIVIDUALS AND AS A CIVILIZATION: DO WE SEARCH FOR STASIS ?A REGULATED, ENGINEERED WORLD? OR DO WE EMBRACE DYNAMISM?A WORLD OF CONSTANT CREATION, DISCOVERY, AND COMPETITION? DO WE VALUE STABILITY AND CONTROL, OR EVOLUTION AND LEARNING? … OR DO WE SEE TECHNOLOGY AS AN EXPRESSION OF HUMAN CREATIVITY AND THE FUTURE AS INVITING? DO WE THINK THAT PROGRESS REQUIRES A CENTRAL BLUEPRINT, OR DO WE SEE IT AS A DECENTRALIZED, EVOLUTIONARY PROCESS? DO WE CONSIDER MISTAKES PERMANENT DISASTERS, OR THE CORRECTABLE BY-PRODUCTS OF EXPERIMENTATION? DO WE CRAVE PREDICTABILITY, OR RELISH SURPRISE? THE TWO POLES, STASIS AND DYNAMISM, INCREASINGLY DEFINE OUR POLITICAL, INTELLECTUAL, AND CULTURAL LAND.Sc.APE. THE CENTRAL QUESTION OF OUR TIME IS WHAT TO DO ABOUT THE FUTURE. AND THAT QUESTION CREATES A DEEP DIVIDE.” [170]

In speaking about science progression, new benefits and new hazards, here it is a summation by the English Crown’s top scientist, Sir Martin Rees.

Sir Martin Rees, Ph.D. : “…Science is emphatically not, as some have claimed, approaching its end; it is surging ahead at an accelerating rate. We are still flummoxed about the bedrock nature of physical reality, and the complexities of life, the brain, and the cosmos. New discoveries, illuminating all these mysteries, will engender benign applications; but will also pose new ethical dilemmas and bring new hazards. How will we balance the multifarious prospective benefits from genetics, robotics, or nanotechnology against the risk (albeit smaller) of triggering utter disaster? .... Science is advancing faster than ever, and on a broader front: bio-, cyber- and nanotechnology all offer exhilarating prospects; so does the exploration of space. But there is a dark side: new science can have unintended consequences; it empowers individuals to perpetrate acts of megaterror; even innocent errors could be catastrophic. The ‘downside’ from twenty-first century technology could be graver and more intractable than the threat of nuclear devastation that we have faced for decades. And human-induced pressures on the global environment may engender higher risks that the age-old hazards of earthquakes, eruptions, and asteroid impacts…” [120]

Why seek ultimate truths under the underlying unturned rocks?

“…From knowledge of the rules each molecule obeys, we can predict the emergence of the structure and function of a material ? a molecular society and, ultimately, a material culture. Beating heart muscle. Pollutant-filtering molecular sponges. Energy-harvesting solar cells .... Let us embark upon a journey into the world of nanotechnology. Let us see how far we have come in persuading Nature to fashion matter after our needs, in using refined control over atoms, electrons, and photons to better human existence. Let us examine how the latest breakthroughs are revolutionizing human health, environment, and information. Humbled before Nature’s achievements, let us inquire as to our limitations, and contemplate what responsibilities arise in the face of our new found abilities…” [194]

Therefore, What should systematically be instituted then?

Dr. Vernon Grose, D.Sc. (1987): “... especially for managing risk, is almost an inevitable necessity in the days ahead. Life is not likely [at all] to get less complicated.” [99]

The PRESENT resolutely insists on trashing itself with an overload of “obsoledge” (obsolete knowledge) [23]. But the erudite, shrewd, pre-cog FUTURE — knowing the decisively better best — stays safe and certain that « what worked best won’t anymore » for the PRESENT besieged by mundane miseries, those miseries propelled by the unkindest humankind without a fail.

THE FUTURE IS ALSO AND ABOVE ALL BESIEGED, BUT BESIEGED OF AND BY AND THROUGH BREAKTHROUGHS IN PERPETUITY AND PERPETUALLY IN FLUIDITY RADIANTLY AND IRRADIANTLY.

If you must insist, you can study the melancholic PAST as a distorted prologue primer to the PRESENT. Nevertheless, not even the loftiest accumulation of all the suboptimal PASTS added to the PRESENT are nothing but an infinitesimal, ineffectual, inconsequential, immaterial, and impious script to the FUTURE. PAST and PRESENT are a bunch of empty, hallow iotas.

Said script, I’m not apologetic to state, since I did not birth this Universe, won’t get you to your own FUTURE’s UPSIDES, but might make you institute an emergency landing upon your own existential disruption unless you pay great attention and act upon it urgently and smartly. Got to get beyond cross-pollinated sophistication. Cannot make it by yourself? Can you please just ask for unconventional professional assistance?

In the ultimate scrutiny, you must conceive, design, develop, implement, sustain, update, adapt, re-adapt, and re-invent you and your own FUTURES, FUTURE by FUTURE for Life, a Life that will equate to immortality. Taken from the Latin term a posteriori, I will never act aposterioristically. Taken from the Latin term a priori, I will invariably proceed aprioristically.

Unless, in exercising your most conscientious freewill, you wish to be enslaved by an arrogant robot that is: omniscient, as well as self-upgrading, self-enhancing, self-replicating, self-fixing, self-energized, self-renewing, self-reinventing, self-aware, self-ruling, self-transporting, self-commuting (by ground, air, water, outer space, tele-transportation, etc.), and in possession of many other “selfs” that grant it super autonomy.

Those believing that tele-transportation, more popularly known as teleporting, is Sci-Fi might wish to research on the breakthroughs by Los Alamos National Laboratories. Some years ago, as per Los Alamos itself, they made it possible at the “discrete level.”

The PRESENT does not resemble the PAST, nor will the FUTURE ever resemble the PRESENT; up until now the PRESENT has been anecdotal, folkloric, and still impregnated with greater forces and yet more subtle ones than an ever-increasing synergy (i.e. mother of all synergies) of all our known and unknown PASTS combined (over four billion years), while the FUTURE will over-geometrically trans-mutate into infinitely swifter, arrhythmic, inconceivably, amorphously perennially-accelerating (through diversely modulated or not speeds — speeds that stem from some new order of rampant speeding and acceleration of said speeding —), orderly-chaotic and yet more driven into vividly-immersed and palpable realities than our current yet obsolete PRESENT.

Why second-guess the FUTURE when you can read, in advance, said FUTURE's hints NOW and exploit them grandiosely, to your advantage?

Annihilate the DOWNSIDES to hijack the UPSIDES, metaphorically and not so metaphorically speaking about leading, managing, and undertaking organizations with a profit end or otherwise. Please remember a golden rule: Regardless of your qualitative and quantitative growth in, say, leadership and success capturing as well as management, every growth will be hallowed and harmful if it is not first a growth of ethics and morality.

Size, speed, dynamics. And novel realities?

“…Like Moore’s Law for silicon electronics, which says that computers are growing exponentially smaller and more powerful every year, molecular systems developed with DNA nanotechnology have been doubling in size roughly every three years,…” says Professor Erik Winfree at the California Institute of Technology (Caltech). [197]

The FUTURE at all times wishes to readily equip the present with novel information. Why? Because the FUTURE considers the PRESENT a failed stated in the realm of time, and does not desire to get implicated with the downsides of a sub-optimal, bitter fellow who declines every helpful knowledge on “emotional intelligence” and “political intelligence”.

The PRESENT is irrevocably stuck in FUTURES’ perpetual scientific breakthroughs.

Is this more than just a fast-pacing world?

Stephen M.R. Covey observes, “…the world’s fund of information now doubles every two to two and a half years…” [196]

Anyway, and by any rational measure, we are in a multi-eon-streaming epoch in which mind-toughness and mind resilience, within kindness and civility, are going to be far more important than the smile of the bus driver spoken of by Daniel Goldman. [29]

What is an example of one instituting resiliency?

Dr. Robert Collins, Ph.D. and his “Ten Commandments of Resilience.” It here ensues the literal citation:

I.- Thou Shalt Have a Written Disaster Plan
II.- Thou Shalt Do Cost Benefit Analysis
III.- Thou Shalt Be Fully Insured
IV.- Thou Shalt Search Out and Repair Vulnerable Systems
V.- Thou Shalt Have Redundant Systems
VI.- Thou Shalt Be Mobile
VII.- Thou Shalt Set and Follow Priorities
VIII.- Thou Shalt Not Depend on Others
IX.- Thou Shalt Keep Lines of Communication Open
X.- Thou Shalt Capitalize on Opportunities

End of citation of the “Ten Commandments of Resilience.” [125]

As the FUTURE gives the PRESENT a bad score and becomes judgmental on it, the PRESENT flagrantly denies and rejects the current existence of the FUTURE. Some of the signs echoed by the FUTURE into the PRESENT are ubiquitously here in encoded ways.

As the FUTURE paraphrases Shakespeare’s sentence (fears take away the good with which we could win) and executes it in the practice, the PRESENT feels a great animosity against such a maxim and habit.

The forthcoming FUTURE — already scattered among us — has a lot to offer to the PRESENT, namely an invaluable out-of-this-world-and-time source of narrative and numerical data (unexplored repository knowledge waiting to being seized and administered by the PRESENT and its inhabitants). Can you think of anyone more visionary than the king in his class, the FUTURE itself?

The PRESENT, unfortunately, is somehow anecdotal (suboptimal) while the FUTURE ruthlessly and relentlessly abides by ever-emerging scientific truths. These truths contain vast gold mines for creation, recreation, and super-creation, as well as for devastation.

The cultivated brains must root out the endless dangers to capture the benefits, so humankind prevails on Earth and much more beyond it if the Universe (and the embedded Nature of the latter), too, — and its own hyper-dynamics — warrants such a sovereign license.

For the first time in history, we can work backward from our imagination rather than forward from our past. [28] In the midst of chaos, there is a learning lesson to assimilate. Sometimes the table is served for OVER-LEARNING if the prepared mind is paying huge attention to the nano-granularity of details.

To me uncharted territory is the most splendorous “terra incognita” battlefield, chiefly because of its sheer number of unknown knowns and unknown knowns. As well as immense crises, there territories and incognitos offered an unprecedented learning opportunity that I will never waste, my most thoughtful friends.

The term singularity entered the popular science culture with the 1993 presentation at NASA-sponsored conference of a seminal paper by San Diego State University statistician Vernor Vinge. The abstract of the famous essay is as dauntingly lucid today as it was more than a decade ago: Permalink: http://www.mindstalk.net/vinge/vinge-sing.htm

Professor Vinge indicated it in 1993: “…Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. Shortly after, the human era will be ended …Is such progress avoidable? If not to be avoided, can events be guided so that we may survive? These questions are investigated. Some possible answers [and some further dangers] are presented…”

Is there some evidence about managing intelligence at the microbiological level?

“...In August of 2000, a Japanese scientist named Toshiyuki Nakagaki announce that he had trained an amoebalike organism called slim mold to find the shortest route through a maze. Nakagaki had placed the mold in a small maze comprising four possible routes and planted pieces of food at two of the exits. Despite its being an incredibly primitive organism (a close relative of ordinary fungi) with no centralized brain whatsoever, the slime mold managed to plot the most efficient route to the food, stretching its body through the maze so that it connected directly to the two food sources. Without any apparent cognitive resources, the slime mold had 'solved' the maze puzzle ... For such a simple organism, the slime mold has an impressive intellectual pedigree. Nakagaki's announcement was only the latest in a long chain of investigations into the subtleties of slime mold behavior. For scientists trying to understand systems that use relatively simple components to build higher-level intelligence, the slime mold may someday be seen as the equivalent of the finches and tortoises that Darwin observed on the Galáagos Islands …” [212]

I just wonder if the FUTURE is continually stalking on the PRESENT! Perhaps, it is so. One thing can be ascertained, because of the PRESENT’s non-erudite nature, the FUTURE (the over-ruling) is always filibustering the PRESENT (the enslaved).

These days meaning: these seconds — the totality of all is in the making perpetually. That to be in the making mode — at this time — is relentlessly thought of and thought through way in advance. This is a technique to CURRENTLY get your brains over-in-sourced by zillion practiced futuristic scenarios (happily and readily adopted quite early on).

THE FUTURE WILL HIT THE PRESENT AND ITS RESPECTIVE GROUND RUNNING. All of that as it has been lavishly seen up to the present time.

This is a hyper-accelerated Eons-streaming Age and ever-increasingly by an above and beyond an over-exponential “many orders of magnitude” factor.

Said “over-exponential factor,” even when multiplied by many orders of magnitudes as in effect it is, the non-linear geometrical and discontinuous growth rate of it is by most people immeasurably underestimated and misunderstood. Besides its intuition is only flagrant counter-intuition.

To me the PAST is more like Alice (Alice's Adventures in Wonderland). The PRESENT seems more like Mr. Hyde while the FUTURE appears to be more like the joint conspiracy by Dr. Jekyll and Dorian Gray. Perhaps, we will need the combined effort by Sherlock Holmes and Agatha Christie to decipher these outright enigmas, namely those stemming from the ever-awaited-but-ever-intruding FUTURE. The PRESENT is always ad hoc.

We are repeatedly longing for the good sides of the futures impiously forgetting that those futures come along with great responsibilities and challenges.

Progress is the future outcome of a multitude of cascades of “current moments” flowing divergently. The divergence unites seamlessly but not under the ever-suboptimal comprehension “seized” via the “naked” human eye.

The PRESENT ? so-called ? is always precluding FUTURE repetition of said 'PRESENT' in order to displace the implicated continuum to other progressions and/or retrogressions.

The PRESENT is introvert adhocracy as the FUTURE is technocracy in perpetuity. The PRESENT is an illiterate adhocratic one while the FUTURE is the technocratic, “omni mode” savant. The PAST is hollow and inconsequential fossils unverifiable by any “carbon testing” measurement.

To give entrepreneurs a POV quickly, most business plans are (have been for too long) grotesquely ill-conceived indeed in the mean time, as they are written-up and reckoned with the eyes fixed in prehistory. IF IT IS NOT AN ACTUAL SUB-SET OF A MUCH GREATER AND THOROUGH ADVANCED RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGY, THE FIRM WILL MEET GARGANTUAN CHALLENGES.

Otherwise, there will be great opportunities! One end of the greatest Risk Management Effort (extraneous to insurance, co-insurance, re-insurance, bonds, and those artifices “marketed” by beautifully institutionalized “social engineering,” termed by these God-sent incumbents: “marketing techniques”) is to entertaining the fiscally sound outcomes of a business, literally any business, challenge, or task.

This FUTURE, that throws around its weight through every facet of the PRESENT overbearingly and mercilessly, might be 99.99% INEVITABLE.

Inevitability, in this instance, equates to meaning that it will be a rogue dictator, over-ruling capriciously and solely acting upon its way and capricious taste.

The unavoidable consequences of this FUTURE can be mitigated or at least somehow modulated. Evidently, this FUTURE’s UPSIDES can be, perhaps, seized and even amplified. To meet both requisites, there is one HUGE prerequisite before proceeding any further. The popular wisdom so populated of “one thing at a time” is forbidden by the rulings of the incumbent FUTURES here referred to.

This is not a calling for the “snail-paced” multi-tasking either. You do your DOWNSIDES and UPSIDES simultaneously for Life. Otherwise, one can never proclaim knowing how systems operate (not just computational software, but SYSTEMS per se IN UPPER CASE).

That is, that the TOTALITY of HUMANKIND has to converge AT UNISON — “on the doubles” — on the most essentials Herculean tasks to do in order to attempt the sustainability of the corresponding civilization as it is now known / perceived. What a big problem to solve that one posed by so-called perception!

In all seriousness, one must decode, de-encrypt the enigmas of the informative and dis-informative yet hallucinated perception. There are way too many kinetic hallucinations and vivid fabrications and pseudo-actual artifices even in the most lucidly sighted perceptions as fluidly recorded, in real time, even in the most prepared of the minds. How can one, in an all-out practiced, de-hallucinate such atrocious perceptions?

Don’t trust perceptions since they’re all flawed and ergo they lie. Dr. Henry Mintzberg indicates that “humans are flawed,” How, could you, subsequently, obtain de-flawed perceptions from flawed hominids? In order to de-flaw perceptions and executions, you must go great distances to begin with, thus as you are still entrenched in so-called “Success 101, the in-between lines 1, line 1, word 1,” out of a socially engineered preface.

A misbehaved future?

Virginia Postrel: “The future we face at the dawn of the twenty-first century is, like all futures left to themselves, ‘emergent, complex messiness.’ Its ‘messiness’ lies not in disorder, but in an order that is unpredictable, spontaneous, and ever shifting, a pattern created by millions of uncoordinated, independent decisions. The pattern contains not just a few high-tech gizmos, but all the variegated aspects of life. As people create and sell products or services, adopt new fashions of speech or dress, form families and choose home towns, make medical decisions and seek spiritual insight, investigate the universe and invent new forms of art, these actions shape a future no one can see, A FUTURE THAT IS DYNAMIC AND INHERENTLY UNSTABLE.” [170]

Do you feel confused by said hallucinations? Verify this quotation by Henry Miller: “…Confusion is a word we have invented for an order which is not understood...”

From theory to successful execution in excelsis!

Before considering these success tenets, let's see what a prominent scientist, to this utter end, has to say. Einstein: “I never discovered anything with my rational mind.” [111]

Atrocious hallucinations embedded in perceptions can be “reality checked” by, for example, following these success tenets in your professional/business theater (frame of reference) of operations: (1) Picture mentally radiantly. (2) Draw outside the canvas. (3) Color outside the vectors. (4) Sketch sinuously. (5) Far-sight beyond the mind’s intangible exoskeleton. (6) Abduct indiscernible falsifiable convictions. (7) Reverse-engineering a gene and a bacterium or, better yet, the lucrative genome. (8) Guillotine the over-weighted status quo. (9) Learn how to add up ? in your own brainy mind ? colors, dimensions, aromas, encryptions, enigmas, phenomena, geometrical and amorphous in-motion shapes, enigmas, phenomena, methods, techniques, codes, written lines, symbols, contexts, locus, venues, semantic terms, magnitudes, longitudes, processes, tweets, “knowledge-laden” hunches, so forth. (10) Project your wisdom’s wealth onto communities of timeless-connected wikis. (11) Cryogenize the infamous illiterate by own choice and reincarnate ASAP (multiverse teleporting out of a warped / wormed passage) Da Vinci, Bacon, Newton, Goethe, Bonaparte, Edison, Franklyn, Churchill, Einstein, and Feynman. (12) Organize relationships into voluntary associations that are mutually beneficial and accountable for contributing productively to the surrounding community. (13) Practice the central rule of good strategy, which is to know and remain true to your core business and invest for leadership and R&D+Innovation. (14) Kaisen, SixSigma, Lean, LeanSigma, “Reliability Engineer” (the latter as solely conceived and developed by Procter & Gamble and Los Alamos National Laboratories) it all unthinkably and thoroughly by recombinant, a là Einstein Gedanke-motorized judgment (that is to say: Einsteinian Gedanke [“thought experiments”] as further explained at http://slidesha.re/e3lMaE). (15) Provide a road-map / blueprint for drastically compressing (‘crashing’) the time’s ‘reticules’ it will take you to get on the top of your tenure, nonetheless of your organizational level. (16) With the required knowledge and relationships embedded in organizations, create support for, and carry out transformation initiatives. (17) Offer a tested pathway for addressing the linked challenges of personal transition and organizational transformation that confront leaders in the first few months in a new tenure. (18) Foster momentum by creating virtuous cycles that build credibility and by avoiding getting caught in vicious cycles that harm credibility. (19) Institute coalitions that translate into swifter organizational adjustments to the inevitable streams of change in personnel and environment. (20) Mobilize and align the overriding energy of many others in your organization, knowing that the “wisdom of crowds” is upfront and outright rubbish. (21) Step outside the boundaries of the framework’s system when seeking a problem’s solution. (22) Within zillion tiny bets, raise the ante and capture the documented learning through frenzy execution. (23) “Moonshine” and “Skunks-work” all, holding in your mind the motion-picture image that, regardless of the relevance of “inputs” and “outputs,” entails the highest relevance is within the sophistication within the THROUGHPUT. (24) Don’t copy Nature, don’t even copy Universe. Just copy the Multiverse. (25) Correlate everything else with the ignored and unthinkable ‘else’ of everything else forever. (26) Combine the practical and technological with the mysterious and meaningful. (27) Pencil your map. (28) Brush your road-map. (29) Scratch your blueprint. (30) Conceive, develop and share unthinkable lessons learned. (31) Facilitate a heterogeneous group — in the midst of appalling interpersonal chemistry — toward the accomplishment of a common goal. (32) Learn complex new skills and new ways to make corporate miracles crystallize. (33) Typo the cartoon. (34) Keystroke the drawing. (35) Enculturate your brain to operate executions from the applied omniscience via the lenses and springs of systems methodology. (36) Manage RISKS and BENEFITS in series and never in parallel. (37) Remove accident causes prior to a loss, knowing that an accident is never a random stroke of fate, but an utter and thus purported instrument of ignorance. (38) Convert your viewpoint to a systems approach. (39) Enable full-orbed and balanced stability of your thinkables and unthinkables. (40) Attempt to know, early on, the end from the beginning. (41) Identify driving forces to make better decisions, manage uncertainty, and profit from change. (42) Declare the past, recover yesterday, analyze the present, enjoy today, and reinvent tomorrow. (43) Build your own FUTURE transcending your past. (44) Contort your mindful, mindless executions — and those in the midst of 'mindful' and 'mindless' executions — solely out of this world, and solely out of this universe, and solely out of this reality, but not just for the inexpensive, tangential, impious sake of intellectual stunts, but only so that the 'life' has not unfruitful 'afterlife' — so-called —, and also so that the 'world' has no 'afterworld' (as well as, in congruence with the present work, ‘after-universe’ and even ‘after-verse.’) — so-called —. Aren’t afterlife and afterworld disintermediated anyway? Now, you, and merely you, proceed and transcend yourself, by yourself and for yourself. (45) If you really want to make an operational difference in your professional theater of operations, go and get a full immersion in the fringe. Right in their, under that tense and pressing dynamics, you’ll have the vantage flux of the mirage. (46) Tantalize your tangential pre-cognition and cognition into ever- ?metamorphosing ?your attentive and contemplative trans-meditation Zen. (47) ?De-realize of thus de-focus from that taken-for-granted realities of the folly, literally!, (48) ?Mostly in-source your mind with long-unknown virtualities. (49) Assure that there are not unsearched areas of risk, benefit and sustainable opportunities. (59) Enculturate yourself and those in your crew and in the orbit of incumbent stakeholder with most actionable, applied omniscience << http://slidesha.re/omisci >> Remember culture without science and technology is beyond blind. (60) Cultivate the highest manifestations of human intelligences: vision, discipline, passion and conscience. (61) Achieve next-level breakthrough in productivity, innovation and leadership in the marketplace and society. (62) Develop the internal power and moral authority to break out of those problems to become a significant force in solving them. (63) Use your voice and deeds to superbly serve your organization’s purposes, functions and stakeholders. (64) Magnify your current gifts, talents, skills and dexterities. (65) Take a prior learning for Life, apply it to a new situation, learn from practical experience, and apply the new learning. (66) Pervasively reason from effect to cause and from cause to effect. (67) Envision shrewd yet calculated risks, from start to end, to turn downsides into upsides. (68) “Exponentialize the rushed and marshaled progression of your own all-rounded, perennial learning curves on the doubles, chiefly those directly concerned with engaging your diverse skills, dexterities, and talents to overcome ? through fluid execution by mind preparedness ? your theater of operations because of and by the increasingly threatening surroundings. Otherwise, the onset Technological Revolutions (compounded in a pervasive composite), as explained in «Futuretonium», will give you the hardest time to you and yours. There is hope if we work the hardest and in the most scientific mode. (69) Figure out exactly which neurons to make synapses with. (70) Wire up synapses the soonest. (71) Ask now more sophisticated questions to marshal upon.” (See definition of “throughput” at [53]). [92] [129]

The function of the “motion picture” image is to “show early on” before the mind a lucid film of incessantly altering futures. The purpose of the vision is never to show a film of an irrevocably fixed future. For-certain visions are mired by most lucid foresights.

Come to think of it thoroughly, “throughput” is embodied by the Latin term “modus operandi.” Through ages the concept of mission-critical “throughput” has regularly been represented by said Latin term. Clearly, as eons elapse, in the West we do need a great translation into English.

Through implementation of your organizational, corporate, institutional, entrepreneurial modus operandi, you can shape up your modus vivendi.

Possibly, this FUTURE will not have — as per the flawed hopes treasured by all-walks-of-life eyewitnesses — a “natural tendency.” Stated plainly, because it is being envisioned and worked-out preter-naturally, this FUTURE may appear — before our naked eyes — with extreme tendencies and directives that evoke the most extravagant and transhuman mandates.

Can anyone undergo an epiphany in reversal? Long time ago, speaking of my professional experience while testing and experimenting, I have reduced probabilities of having “breakthrough” epiphanies to zero, literally. I had envisioned many “Eureka times” long time ago and yet in advance. I do have an immense way to go very much to my blessed apostle-hood.

One must consider that I toy and play with not only Edisonian Research but also with own self-induced: (a) Serendipities, (b) Pseudo-serendipities, (c) Randomized serendipities, (d) Pseudo-randomized serendipities, and e) Pseudo-randomized serendipities.

For cases (a), (b), (c), and (d) I also play a great deal with channeling the “throughput” with (1) directness, (2) indirectness, and (3) a combination of immediately previous (1) and (2). All of the above, in further progression of my testing and experimenting, as well as my fact-finding and fact-disproving research, I subject to a gradation (“gray scale shading,” so to, speak) of (i) loose, (ii) control, and a combination of immediately previous (i) and (ii).

The terms “extravagant” and “transhuman,” in this case, apply for even the ultimately leading-edge practitioner of the scientific realm, either within that eminent establishment, or those with an unauthenticated citizenship from the avant-garde renegade-verse. It might be a genuine deal, it might not?

Said dictator will not impersonate anyone. He will be THE maximum MONARCH OF TECHNOCRACY by his own right, Remember? Yes, yes, yes — I know, Technocracy, the gentleman that just espoused a lady with an appalling temperament that loses composure oft, even before the state’s visits by the Holly Pope and her Royal Highness the Queen of England.

Her given name is “Global.” Her surname is “Crises.” That’s the reason why this “power couple” has made Sir Francis Bacon a best-selling icon, “FOR TIME IS THE GREATEST INNOVATOR.” Gotten it?

This Monarch will expel every laggard and every one that, notwithstanding his / her most advanced education, worships and disseminates ignorance. This expel will include the transfer of the selected one to a recondite “curved” corner of the Universe or the Multiverse. In speaking about the Multiverse, we must use the following quotation.

Where is the strategic surprise ignored?

John Burdon Sanderson Haldane (1892 — 1964): “I have no doubt that in reality the future will be vastly more surprising than anything I can imagine. Now my own suspicion is that the universe is not only queerer than we suppose, but queerer than we can suppose.”

The PRESENT carries on superfluously. But the FUTURE is over-impregnated and super-immersed with detailed meaning and significance and with projected transgressive-ly and a là “omni mode” manners, as well as with its manifesting tangibly and yet palpably intangibly pervasive ubiquity.

Perpetual innovation is a rogue truth to this PRESENT. The breadth, depth, scope, subtlety, intricacy, and rate of acceleration of this FUTURE’s perpetual innovation will be endless, endless so that is beyond the wildest dreams or nightmares ever conceived by the ultimately noted or most criticized sci-fi writer.

To attribute to this FUTURE’s perpetual innovation a quality of far-fetched will be as well an extreme over-simplification and an existential blunder and the greatest and most public personal acknowledgment of own worshiped supine ignorance.

The PRESENT stifles innovation and fosters rigidity.

The PRESENT is inevitably a means to an end. The end is unavoidably the FUTURE.

The PRESENT always remains polemically unresolved. The FUTURE, as per the long view gained through the Multiverse, in its deepest core is even, stable and organized.

Remember: The FUTURE is eternally pre-clashing and/or clashing the PRESENT, thus continuously shaping and re-shaping the PRESENT to a great extent. The FUTURE is ? so to speak and at least ? 30% a function of the PRESENT and 70% a function of the FUTURE itself. Percentages are arbitrarily suggested in order to illustrate.

The PRESENT is bathed by the ill-presumed permanency and by the quality of being impermanent. The PRESENT is never a snapshot or fixed (static). It is the linkage, superposition, and/or contentious intertwining of many films (multi-fluid dynamics / kinetics).

Its dynamism grants itself, the PRESENT, huge ambitions to becoming the FUTURE while trying to capture the “here and now” mirage, a mirage (a misdemeanor) that does not care losing the sense of ridicule in worldwide football / soccer game through worldwide broadcasting “live.”

There are too many “heres” and a myriad of “nows” without the utter and indispensable acknowledgment that the perennial, trembling gap between the PRESENT and FUTURE generates many creative tensions, regardless if it is harvested or not.

The PRESENT is at least unceasingly infinite, unless its interrelationship with the FUTURE stops. The FUTURE is never endless unless a great anomaly takes place.

Concerning the PRESENT and specially the FUTURE, the great majority of people failed considering the possibility of anything going wrong, no matter how remote the location or complexity of the implementation environment.

The PRESENT and the FUTURE engender tsunamis of CHANGES, principally those changes never thought through. When you altered your work because of competition and/or difficult times, you are CHANGING your professional occupation (organizational strategy).

The PRESENT has orderly been used to being a land at the dawn of history, that history architect-ed by a bunch of biographies and auto-biographies by the winners and the prevailing ones without considering the side of the losing ones or that of those without partisan positions.

The PRESENT’s duties are appended to the FUTURE. The PRESENT’s rights are appended to the PAST.

A statement in this direction?

Yogi Berra: “The future ain’t what it used to be.” [142]

When you reflect and modify you innermost (and that one revolting and commuting within the innermost by using its own proprietary translational and rotational moves), you are CHANGING your essence to some extent. CHANGING your essence to being ADAPTABLE to ever-shifting realities will be your utmost sensible deed.

When CHANGE is perpetually altering all types of CHANGES, the scientific properties of known and unknown changes get modified, sometimes profoundly and sometimes to an indescribable unknown. This extreme modification is what I have been referring to ‘CHANGED CHANGES.’

CHANGED CHANGES make the overwhelming case for “beyond unprecedented” reinvention of humans, lifestyles, organizations, businesses, governments, nongovernmental organizations, societies, and worldwide society. In the process, the extreme makeover is in nothing superficial or similar.

And the call is an abrupt wake-up alarm to all sorts of leaders, managers, entrepreneurs, business owners, government administrators, consultants, advisers, strategists, professors, teachers, students, researchers, and any breathing or cryogenized human being.

Welcome to a new “normal” and a new “abnormal.” In all verisimilitude, there are many new “normals” and “abnormals” (both with scientific normality) being the latter, incidentally, as well within normality.

At the time being, it does not matter anymore where you come from and how this impact your ‘current’ PRESENT. Instead, what is presently relevant for you to envision are the floating, fluxing, cross-railed FUTURES as they climb the treacherous building-block ladder, the ladder of accumulation of opportunities, challenges, and perplexing, but exuberant trade-offs. Neither exuberance nor trade-offs are for the uncultivated.

These trades-offs poise the least thinkable of the unthinkable results, challenging our body (physiology), mind (psychology), and soul (spirit). If you think “exuberant” is a fancy or undesirable term, kindly please wait until you come to meet your FUTURE in person.

To apply, say, for practical leadership credentials will be a nearly, though not impossible, insurmountable enterprise for Life. Leadership to what (a) Benchmark, (b) Metric, (c) Objective, (d) Goal, (e) Function, (f) Purpose?

How insurmountable? As nearly insurmountable as attempting to hike the Everest cloth-less, equipment-less, ill-prepared, flawed-minded without a crew and the indispensable Sherpa, as you walk and climb toward the mountain’s peak with your back focused on the peak and while your eyes are grabbed by the starting-point locus. You have the right to successfully seek the anti-canonical milestone, Haven't you?

You can continually walk into the FUTURE backwards to revive the fossilized vestiges of blurred/made-up/artificial “artifices”-driven memories that eat your soul out. A healthy medical prescriptions will dictate: “The patient must always focus on the FUTURE. In the process, and in order to keep its existence, he/she must always REMEMBER THE FUTURE IN ADVANCE.”

You know what the PAST is? Reply: The eternal flow of increasing creative-tension and controversial discrepancies between the FUTURE and the PRESENT, encapsulated in a stream of segments from the “preterit tense” kingdom, a kingdom that is neither awaken nor significant anymore.

Historians and some actuaries, in a hurry, will be shouting that they stop being “retrospective” to becoming “prospective” (and creatively so) given the eternally-happening inflicting points of inflections requiring exuberant solving. As I have met actuaries with a rather obtuse mind ? entrenched in a fossilized past of uselessness ?, I have also met with prominent actuaries (most of them with the application of other academic and knowledge discipline), chiefly in North America and Europe, that subscribe the view of the undersigned.

Paraphrasing Ray Kurzweil [1], “…as order from FUTURE exponentially increases, designated time exponentially and incessantly speeds up by ever-increasing orders of magnitude.”

The PRESENT is just a fluid venue progressively bumped and shocked by the interactions between the unfortunately fossilized PAST and the FUTURE through the inter-mediation of the so-called PRESENT.

Clearly, the genetics of the human beings will have a notable impact on the psychology and physiology of the humans until the FUTURE’s say, want it or not, like it or not. Such a say has a designated “due time.” Due time is not a fixed point but a maze of explosive sinuous lines.

By all enforced effects, the FUTURE is by any means a representative of three facets. There is the facet of opportunities that we can call UPSIDE RISKS.

Another facet is that of the likelihood of potential disruption. The former impersonates the DOWNSIDE RISK.

Thirdly, there’s the facet of blended UPSIDE RISKS with DOWNSIDE RISKS. To really get the OPPORTUNITIES the DOWNSIDE RISKS must be terminated or, at least, mitigated and modulated. Those DOWNSIDE RISKS must be brought under optimum control as per the technical parlance I employ.

Such eternal creative-tension discrepancies / disputes — as imposed by the rogue and nearly ageless interrelationship between the FUTURE and the PRESENT — as the FUTURE wages an all-out “preemptive war” to get the PAST under retirement.

These eternal creative-tension discrepancies make three major displacements. Firstly, it displaces the PAST to a corner (or quadrant) where vestiges are fossilized but not looked after.

It must be mentioned that interrelationship between the FUTURE and the PRESENT is intense and will become increasingly more intense, beyond the boldest and lucid imagination without a fail.

Mother Nature is a great and loving and noble matriarch. The Universe is the oldest and wisest Patriarch, perhaps the elder son of the greatest intelligence of all.

The Multiverse (many universes happening and reckoning at the same time, possessing many dimensions) is not only the maximum, all-enabling Patriarch, but also a pervasive Patrician holding the greatest intelligence, wealth, perhaps the elder son of applied omniscience, genetics,? ?biotechnology (including bio-informatics), neuro-technology (including neuro-informatics),? ?robotics,? ?information technology (including Artificial Intelligence ? i.e. AI ? and Intelligence Amplification ? i.e. AI ?),? ?nanotechnology, material science technology, technology stemming from science of complexity with the holistic perspective of applied omniscience. [41] To see applied omniscience defined by the author, see the respective appendix here included.

Successful and tough, subtle, refined, granular reverse-engineering captures breakthrough innovations for the PRESENT’ and from the FUTURE’s dominion. Reverse-engineering all regardless of its origins, terrestrial or extraterrestrial. Come to think of it and conclude that both (a) all and (b) everything is primordially and ultimately extraterrestrial.

In the last analysis, everything is terrestrial and exo-terrestrial. This is important to bear in mind. Terrestrial or extraterrestrial, what a fruitless argument as that of the gender of the angels, is ultimately guided by the Multiverse (period).

The Earth (so too: Earthlings, always greatly non-terrestrials, and/or Buckminster Fuller’s Earthians) is a function of the Universe. [47].

The Universe is a function of the Multiverse. Perhaps, the Multiverse is a function of most known and chiefly unknown forms of utmost conscientious awareness and supremely lucid intelligence.

Every human is partly earthling and partly extraterrestrial. Why? Because pre bio-genesis and bio-genesis were (at least and as it seems) massively instilled from the outer space (a sub-verse of the Multiverse).

If extraterrestrial beings existed, they would be, in fact, siblings to current humans. How come? Because there are other genesis different from bio-genesis on Earth, whether within our knowledge or not. A genesis does not only take place only on Earth, but in the whole Universe if it is or not under known and unknown modes/assumptions.

To capture benefits and to extreme-make-over, say, leadership and to scientifically steward disruption potential into exploited upsides (to make success seizing crystallize), you need to understand the PRESENT, the FUTURE, and its frenzy interrelationship. In making this effort optimum — and among other prerequisites — we must find out and address two topics.

One topic has to do with how we reached this PRESENT out of a scattered PAST’s technological accomplishment as we constructed an expanded knowledge repository just by practicing future scenarios through radiant foresight, far-sight, hindsight, insight, and innermost-sight. Admittedly, this is no small task.

The most reasoned foresight and far-sight, sine qua non to recalling the FUTURE, is only a function of innermost-sight outwardly.

Another topic is that insidious habit of the FUTURE in seducing the as-of-now PRESENTS while the citizens of such PRESENTS make us agent so many looking-forward changes that set afire the interrelationship between this PRESENT and this FUTURE.

Now we know how we got to “here,” “here” is the hyper-dynamism of flows, in-flows, counter-flows, avant-garde flows, crossed-pollinated flows, point-inflecting flows. “As-of-now” exactly refers to the PRESENT-FUTURE’s own tête-à-tête. [38]

“Here,” while planted in the PAST, was a bit statistical but never really so.

The so-called “here” is undergoing a total immersion of numberless processes, throughputs, transactions, deeds, etc. “Here” has incessantly been mobilized. “Now” is motorized at a rate that is beyond awe-inspiring.

We just got the “now” about right to this point. To turn savvier on this FUTURE, one must be a genius in his executions (sic), yoctosecond by yoctosecond, which is one septillionth (10-24) of a second. [48]

Then, s/he has to make the greatest effort of all, that is, to think unthinkably in relation to present forces and pertaining to futuristic trends — both subtle and dramatic ones as well as those driving and marshaling and enforcing just brute-force dramatic ones — by means of the practical implementation of scenario planning.

All of the previous without ignoring the flagrant and less-are-sometimes-more interactions instrumented by said forces.

Thereinafter, your unthinkable thinking about FUTURES must become more refined, enhanced, exuberant, streamlined, diverse, expanded, disciplined, and extended. In doing so, it never suffices to come up with a three-scenario forecast (not even with the prehistoric “compounded forecast”).

Subsequently, forecasts must carry with you as many plausible or implausible scenarios (ad infinitum indeed) as resources required are never lacking the maximum rigor. Also, no optimum forecast is great enough if it is not accompanied with an arsenal of plans of contingency. Each scenario crafted must have its respective, unambiguous plans of contingency without a fail.

All of this is true for humans from the PAST and the PRESENT. Towards a more advanced time — and by means of reverse-engineering with the omniscience perspective — the humans will increasingly be of different constituents and design, as well as different concerning purpose, function, and a combination of purpose and function simultaneously.

We will become more “intimate” with our eternally ignored relationship with atomic and sub-atomic particles (not to get myself involved in “dark matter” and “divine” or “God’s matter”).

The PRESENT is changelessly unnecessarily delayed or even lost and inattentive because its limits are impermanent and available capabilities are finite.

The PRESENT never contemplates fast-forward-ly, but in reversal in so adding to its even greater inherent disadvantage. The FUTURE operates beyond the offensive acceleration of “light speed”-plus and nearly without or with zero limits or constraints or borders.

The FUTURE is the Napoleonic Emperor that does everything only under its own terms, exploiting every advantage and disadvantage to its lucrative well-being and omni-ruling.

The FUTURE is accustomed to spying on the PRESENT. How come? The FUTURE is the PRESENT’s debriefing one. The FUTURE is, in many cases a virtuoso, though it, at times, voyeurs the PRESENT. What a horrendous vice!

Such deed will NEVER be tolerated. How do you REHAB the FUTURE? Group therapy? Grouping it with whom, the “crowd of wisdom” folks? Rehabilitating it by which handy means? Like the crowd of wisdom used in extraordinary democracies to have the constituency madly in love — from the instruments of democracy — to vote for a Communist president?

The only CROWD OF WISDOM that works is that of the most selected ones, the ones that are paying attention, the ones that are paying expensively to entertain the most wonderful thoughts, plans, and roadmaps.

The PRESENT is sleepwalking while the FUTURE is “child like” wondered by daydreaming promenades. In the mean time, the post-modern modernity is in a rush getting more and more modern by unprecedented “shock and awe” unearthed standards.

This criss-cross PRESENT will be reconstituted by the continually crinkum-crankum FUTURE inevitably. [30], [31]. There is going on a terzetto in which the happenings are more or less like this: the PAST (R.I.P), the PRESENT (thé dansant), and the FUTURE (tertium quid). [32], [33], [34]. Clearly, the PAST is getting a fully impeachable CPR by so-called “historians.”

Earned in his own intellectual right, Thomas Jefferson most cogently stated: “...I am captivated more by dreams of the future than by history of the past....” Jefferson, on his own right, for eternity knew that the FUTURE is un-manipulated from that under-performing venue called “PRESENT.”

Who would dare not to appreciate that genetics,? ?biotechnology (including bio-informatics), neuro-technology (including neuro-informatics),? ?robotics,? ?information technology (including Artificial Intelligence ? i.e. AI ? and Intelligence Amplification ? i.e. AI ?),? ?nanotechnology, material science technology, technology stemming from science of complexity with the holistic perspective of applied omniscience making deep and steep inroads?

Incidentally, the definition of the omniscience perspective can be revised at << http://bit.ly/c8zAeb >> as well.

The PRESENT is a forgetful sardine while the FUTURE is a giant cuttlefish in conspiracy with an octopus and a twenty-four eyes jelly-fish.

Ying and Yang have combined forces of subtle and dramatic origin.

These days the PRESENT is a bit like a pseudo-harmonized Ying-Yang relationship. The FUTURE is only about Yang deeds.

The PRESENT is besieged by a bunch of dilettantes and poseurs. [39]. The FUTURE is — so to speak — à la Sir Francis Drake.

The PRESENT is more like Huckleberry Finn while the FUTURE is perhaps the archetype of Genghis Khan and his efficacious Mongols.

The stream of as-of-now PRESENTS will become — to some extent — one of the forthcoming FUTURES. At some point ahead, a PRESENT will be ultimately integrated into a single FUTURE seamlessly.

Such a FUTURE, though, will reach a point in which being bio-based or bio-related or not in vivo at all will be splendidly awaken and active.

Regardless of transhumanity, overhumanity, superhumanity, nonhumanity and “above and beyond” humanity, the hard-core essential is and will be not being human but becoming and acting humanely.

The PRESENTS are from appalling and contentious interrelationship between Venus and Mars. The FUTURES are only from stringent Mars. Go and ask about it Dr. John Gray. [40]

The FUTURES are supervening upon the PRESENTS in combination with the ruthless forces possess by the own FUTURES.

The PRESENT concerns the animal and vegetable kingdoms. These kingdoms are subject not to three but four emperors, namely: liquid, solid, gas, and plasma.

The FUTURE is only about beyond post-humanity and its staggering brute-force and dramatically-subtle INTELLIGENCE.

The PRESENT pertains to pretending discovering science. The FUTURE is absolute science dominance and nearly if not thoroughly infinite power until the Universe’s last say.

On their own earned rights, the PRESENT and the FUTURE are dogs and darlings, respectively.

The FUTURE has, in many incessant and efficaciously ways, reminded the present about the instrumentality of America’s primordial and indigenous civilizations.

When you take the glorious Dakota’s tribal wisdom, you’ll be advised: Whenever you discover you’re on a dead horse, the best strategy is to dismount.

The indisputable scientific maxim goes, “everything now working is obsolete” (unfortunately, including the human being and the human mind pivoted upon the spine cord) and as a consequence is subject to actual perfectibility for Life.

As you will never reach perfection (even if over-practice makes over-perfection), one (and everything) must be increasingly be upgraded forever. Can you now relate better to Dakota wisdom above?

The PRESENT is always misled and misleading, treasuring a great promise of deceit. The FUTURE is eloquently transparent and clear, crippling — in advance — violators of ethics, morality, principles, integrity, and dignity.

The PRESENT has its eyes glued to the inside-outs. The FUTURE is immensely into staring at its outside-ins.

The PRESENT is a powerless hostage not interested in any honorable vindication at all.

The PRESENT is sick and ailing because of: (a) its once-true believes, (b) its once-true assumptions, (c) its once-true conventions, (d) its never true misconceptions, (e) its once-true cosmos-vision (Weltanschauung), (f) its once-true systems of belief, (g) its once-true truisms, (h) its once-true “common sense,” (i) its once-true “good luck,” so forth. “The future is going to get invented, with you or without you. But if you want to build the new, you must first dismantle your existing belief system and burn for scrap anything that is not endlessly and universally true.” [64]

From the human point of view, these changed changes will be a throwing away of all the previous maxims in a rather violent and abrupt way.

The PRESENT is pseudo-architected and mobilized in tearing down achievement. The FUTURE is forever re-architecting itself while massively out-fostering breakthrough achievements.

Subsequently, the FUTURE will incessantly remain redefining the totality and the entirety of (i) all and (ii) everything (known, unknown, improbable, impossible, thinkable, unthinkable, concerning, and desirable within and outside the laws of physics, quantum mechanics, and other science of “exactness”). I now warmly welcome you, ladies and gentlemen, to “Futuretronium.” [36]

Some serious scientists are making the case of conquering humans’ immortality or, at least, some thousand years of healthy living in the upcoming years.

In making their case, they insist that we are all made of an eternal molecule known as DNA. You’d better believe it on the doubles!

They insist that the DNA molecule has been with us through billions of years. Ray Kurzweil proclaims that “...by the 2030s, the nonbiological portion of our intelligence will predominate...” [1]. Get ready then! Let this brief paragraph to be introductory to the one ensuing.

What is the world to be, under scenarios, looking like towards 2025?

On the trends to 2025, speaking of “What Kind of Future?,” NIC argues: “…The above trends suggest major discontinuities, shocks, and surprises, which we highlight throughout the text. Examples include nuclear weapons use or a pandemic. In some cases, the surprise element is only a matter of timing: an energy transition, for example is inevitable; the only questions are when and how abruptly or smoothly such a transition occurs. An energy transition from one type of fuel (fossil fuels) to another (alternative) is an event that historically has only happened once a century at most with momentous consequences. The transition from wood to coal helped trigger industrialization. In this case, a transition—particularly an abrupt one—out of fossil fuels would have major repercussions for energy producers in the Middle East and Eurasia, potentially causing permanent decline of some states as global and regional powers .... Other discontinuities are less predictable. They are likely to result from an interaction of several trends and depend on the quality of leadership. We put uncertainties such as whether China or Russia becomes a democracy in this category. China’s growing middle class increases the chances but does not make such a development inevitable. Political pluralism seems less likely in Russia in the absence of economic diversification. Pressure from below may force the issue, or a leader might begin or enhance the democratization process to sustain the economy or spur economic growth. A sustained plunge in the price of oil and gas would alter the outlook and increase prospects for greater political and economic liberalization in Russia. If either country were to democratize, it would represent another wave of democratization with wide significance for many other developing states .... Also uncertain are the outcomes of demographic challenges facing Europe, Japan, and even Russia. In none of these cases does demography have to spell destiny with less regional and global power an inevitable outcome. Technology, the role of immigration, public health improvements, and laws encouraging greater female participation in the economy are some of the measures that could change the trajectory of current trends pointing toward less economic growth, increased social tensions, and possible decline .... Whether global institutions adapt and revive—another key uncertainty—also is a function of leadership. Current trends suggest a dispersion of power and authority will create a global governance deficit. Reversing those trend lines would require strong leadership in the international community by a number of powers, including the emerging ones .... Some uncertainties would have greater consequences—should they occur—than would others. In this work, we emphasize the overall potential for greater conflict—some forms of which could threaten globalization. We put WM.D. terrorism and a Middle East nuclear arms race in this category. The key uncertainties and possible impacts are discussed in the text and summarized in the textbox on page vii. In the four fictionalized scenarios, we have highlighted new challenges that could emerge as a result of the ongoing global transformation. They present new situations, dilemmas, or predicaments that represent departures from recent developments. As a set, they do not cover all possible futures. None of these is inevitable or even necessarily likely; but, as with many other uncertainties, the scenarios are potential game-changers...” [144]

Futuretronium will ultimately and inexorably transform into Computronium [35], [36], a technocratic, adhocratic, stratocratic, plutocratic empire thoroughly immersed in the overbearingly qualities: techie, nerdy, brainy, geekish, whose subject matter is the designated output of: (a) humans, (b) enhanced humans, (c) pseudo-humans, (d) post-humans, (e) super-humans (over-men), (f) bionicals, (g) superhumanly intelligent beings, (h) robots, (i) hybrids, (j) trans-humans, (k) post-biologicals, and (l) a combination of all of the priors.

While the PRESENT vastly underestimates the influence of the present-day Internet, the FUTURE will capture every known and unknown force to crown itself into ruthless Computronium. [84]

This Royal is not silly dignitary as one will see him out-compute the entirety of the Universe (and Multiverse, the Universe’s first-and-foremost father).

In the near FUTURE’s (in the zillion flows between Futuretronium, the adolescent, and Computronium, the adult), your dreams, fantasies, and nightmares will all be literally out-dreamed and/or out-daydreamed and/or out-smarted and/or out-shinned and/or out-foretold by a factor of zillion orders of magnitude.

The FUTURE is bathed, as the PRESENT has already been carefully hinted, with artifacts that as a whole are pervasively awakened. These FUTURES are beyond boundary-less-ness.

The FUTURE is for eternity unfolding before most people’s absent-minded eyes, independently if those eyes are appended or not to so-called “prepared minds.” The myopia is within the mind not in the corneas.

The PRESENT is mostly about hardware (palpably tangibles). The FUTURE is greatly about software (palpably and not, intangibles with consequences and sequels both in the physical and vivid virtual worlds).

The hardware era, ever-changing and adapting, is giving way to the software era. Will next generation man-made software use the Universe as a maximum multi-supercomputer hardware?

This colossal eons-streaming Era, regardless of time locus, is constantly under ruthless ruling by the FUTURE.

If you're not remembering the FUTURE is only because you are ignoring every lesson by the PAST and PRESENT, both a PAST and a PRESENT, in my view, designated by the express mandates and designs of the FUTURE.

Vest your interest in the FUTURE since planting your hopes in preterit times will succeed into failure without a fail.

The PRESENT makes a great number of mistakes once, twice, thrice and beyond that without learning a single lesson from even the most recent and gravest mistakes.

The FUTURE is into extracting the critical lessons learned lavishly and abusively ignored in the past and present.

Whether or not you’re seeking a rival and if the FUTURE is not conscientiously conceived, designed, develop and created, the FUTURES will become your most formidable adversaries.

In unnoticeable yet transformational movement is what the FUTURE’s status quo has become, a status quo that is pervasively fluid and impermanent in perpetuity. On the contrary, the PRESENT’s status quo is erratic, timid, disorganized, idiotic and consequently banal.

While the FUTURE is markedly concentrated and focused on every matter in which it has a vested interest, the PRESENT is over-fragmented — greatly Balkanized —, thus lacking attention and excessive in dilution of results.

In dealing with our systems of beliefs, strongly held assumptions, conventions and cosmos vision (Weltanschauung), the FUTURE, into walking habitually great lengths, ascertain that the PRESENT is a thing of the past and the past is a thing further back to the primordial big bang.

QUESTION: WHY DON’T WE MAKE OF THE FUTURE A THING OF THE PAST?

The FUTURE is not in hot pursuit of the PRESENT. The PRESENT represents one fluid expression by the ever-more autocratic unstoppable rulings by demanded the FUTURE.

Yet we have now a great likelihood to make the most intelligent decision to lowering the downsides and upping and upgrading the upsides.

The FUTURE is accustomed and indifferent to the PRESENT’s most self-valued quality, its quality of distraction.

The PRESENT is a laggard. The FUTURE is an out-doer beyond the influence spheres of execution. Here execution only equates to execution of and through relevance, not taking it said execution to the “extra mile” but to the “extra league.” A league is about three miles.

The FUTURE is a composite vector in reversal to the PRESENT and back forth to the times to come.

The PRESENT is, at all times, taking a forty-wink siesta as it dreams of stealing credits and glories from his countrymen. The FUTURE — under its own ways, modes and rulings — is relentless rendering time progressively nonexistent.

The FUTURE is, in every occasion, making the PRESENT déclassé and hence démodé. [45], [46].

The FUTURE spies on the PRESENT comprehensively. The PRESENT’s counter-spying attempts on and towards the FUTURE are less than primitive and more than entirely ludicrous.

When the FUTURE wishes to blend in with the PRESENT, said PRESENT shocks.

With the progression and retrogression of “time,” the postmodern modernity is becoming more and more “modern” by unprecedented “shock and awe” standards.

The PRESENT is sleepwalking while the FUTURE is daydreaming like a savant’s child wondering around MIT, Caltech and NASA.

The PRESENT is the perfect personification of an accommodationist while the FUTURE is the most robust believer (thoroughly faithful and without rudimentary, slowing-down psychological complexes) on his deeds and own existential existence.

To get underneath the FUTURE's skin is the only path to understanding the ever-revolutionizing nature of changed changes.

If you wish to engender lucrative change, you need to bring about contradictions and paradoxes to make friends with unfamiliarity.

Subsequently, John Naisbitt puts it: “You just have to hang out with the paradoxes, hang out with the contradictions until you understand them. When there is a perceived contradiction, I like to look for something that helps to resolve the contradiction. A lot of people have an either/or mentality. We get the Internet and everyone says, ‘Well newspapers are going to go away.’ It’s not either/or. There will be a change in the mix, that’s all.”

In the same order of ideas, Hamel indicates: “Look for dis-confirming evidence, for things that don’t fit, for things that don’t ajar.” [64]

Many, many times Dr. Stephen Hawking has indicated that studying the outer space is not indispensable but not study it is “foolish.” Hence, it is impossible for one not to study about cosmology without being greatly immersed in future studies. If you can understand the current flux of massive impacts by changed change, you need to give you authorization to understand this complex theme. [67]

In this account, Dr. Stephen Hawking is in perfect alignment with President John F. Kennedy. “We set sail on this new sea because there is new knowledge to be gained, and new rights to be won, and they must be won and used for the progress of all people. For space science, like nuclear science and all technology, has no conscience of its own. Whether it will become a force for good or ill depends on man, and only if the United States occupies a position of pre-eminence can we help decide whether this new ocean will be a sea of peace or a new terrifying theater of war. I do not say the we should or will go unprotected against the hostile misuse of space any more than we go unprotected against the hostile use of land or sea, but I do say that space can be explored and mastered without feeding the fires of war, without repeating the mistakes that man has made in extending his writ around this globe of ours.” [80]

In consequence, practice the tradition of actionable mindful mentality — in every theater of operations — without the dragging hold-backs by so-called traditions.

Learn a difficult lesson easily and immediately by Thomas Jefferson: “...I am captivated more by dreams of the future than by history of the past....”

In matters of actual challenging one’s own intellect, any “too much” effort to this end is evermore “too little.”

We must, wherefore, strive exponentially and creatively forever to capture now the best (optimum) from the ever-forthcoming FUTURES. Striving without the maxim effort in taking possession of applied omniscience coupled with universal morality and ethics will render absolutely worthless.

The PRESENT is concave whereas the FUTURE is convex, vexingly convex as a Big Bang’s catch-as-catch-can.

The PRESENT is the frenzy of irrelevance and the FUTURE is the everlastingly-increasing climax of the critical mass that catapults civilization into unknown unknowns.

The PRESENT seems to be into “moribund” mode as the FUTURE is redefining its always-unfolding birth. Birth is death in reversal and consequently death is birth in reversal.

The PRESENT tergiversates itself. The FUTURE, out of a domicile located in the PRESENT, is hugely tergiversated by large majorities.

The FUTURE is within a subterfuge and must be lucidly unveiled if you want to make your life prosper.

The PRESENT is not diametrically opposed to the FUTURE. The FUTURE is just diametrically different.

What are you going to in the PRESENT before the “fierce urgency of now” FUTURE and its ignored (whether existentially lucrative or not) waking-up calls?

I don’t know about the PRESENT and its quality being laissez-faire. The FUTURE does its intellectually hard working rendering emotions useless. This bohemian PRESENT yet an un-salvageable one self-propelled into crass stupidity till FUTURE’s last calling.

The PRESENT systematically fails to crack the FUTURE’s codes. It seems that the PRESENT is irremediably stubborn by genetic design, genetic design of four billion years old.

When the PRESENT reads individual autobiographies by the PAST aloud, a clear picture of the case for change emerges and a still-fuzzy vision of the FUTURE started to show through.

The PRESENT is concentrated on following up on the PAST’s attempts to decipher the FUTURE. In the process, the PRESENT secures its preparations to meet the FUTURE worthless.

The FUTURE — while being savvy and rigorous into exercising its own far-sight and foresight — operates heretofore.

Are we located in the PRESENT really thinking about shaping the FUTURE or rather is the FUTURE shaping us beyond our limited comprehension?

Under the “least worst” scenario, the PRESENT is being shockingly reminded that the world continues to flow at warp speed.

But giving the youngest and newest PRESENTS a central role in plotting Computronium’s forthcoming course not only keeps Futuretronium supplied with ideas at the cutting-edge but also creates a context in which letting go of the PAST and reaching out for a new FUTURE is the only unimpeachable norm.

The PRESENT is a rattlesnake while the FUTURE is a python, a python of the enormity sucking power posed by a so-called “Black Hole.”

The FUTURE never becomes tainted by yesterday beliefs, assumptions and conventions when further thinking about advancing the morrow.

A.I. (Artificial Intelligence) is important. But now it’s more important the most pervasive amplification of the human mind via biological media only so that we can conceive and develop our own FUTURES and those incumbent to the people we care for!

In deciphering (de-encrypting) the FUTURE now and making the PRESENT a “thing of the PAST,” one must learn an easy lesson:

Post-mortem analyzes are indispensable. Yet pre-mortem analyzes (especially the qualitatively driven ones) are beyond grandiose. In order to institute the latter you must inquisitively learn to discern, think, heed, ponder, scale and become furiously and industriously mobilized without losing composure, civility, and harmony.

« CHAPTER 5 »
RELEVANT COMMENTARIES TO CLARIFY HIDEOUS MISUNDERSTANDINGS (UNDER SYSTEMATIC COMMISSION) BY MAGNIFICENT PEOPLE

# 1.- No success, BUT NOW the accumulation of documented, assimilated and run-able, as well as motorized lessons learned by you and out of your own and especially those acquired by others' wisdom. That is, everyone does his / her own relevant and irrelevant things, as well as everyone does his / her own consequences and responsibilities stemming from said relevant and irrelevant things. Sequels and consequences are mostly static, but sub-sequences that are beyond kinetic, both in the downSIDES and UPsides.

# 2.- No strategies, BUT NOW composite stratagems. Stratagems do not ever make the case, nor the merits, for you to violate timeless morality, principles and ethics. It’s driven by limitless-ly practical knowledge to prevent and solve problems. Any growth in every field of knowledge and serious discipline, as any growth in skills and insights and perspectives, is futile and dangerous if it is not engendered and coupled by a MORALITY GROWTH.

# 3.- No faith in luck, BUT NOW ample instituting of applied omniscience. “Lucky strikes” are matters of persistently rigorous — and highly respected — rocket scientists, literally. Practitioners with the utmost perseverance, guided by supreme empirical knowledge, are granted Victory. Remember the DARPA’s adage: “If you’re not failing frequently, you’re not succeeding enough.”

It's opportune to mention that the hardest it's to “succeed,” say, in “markets” of maximum uncertainties, as two things will happen. First, the general entrepreneurial climate will be more and more defying (as per the rulings of the new “normals” and new “ab-normals”).

Second, your colleagues will make ever-largest efforts to compete “against” you for the same, say, professional service contracts you're seeking. In matter-of-fact talking, your colleague becomes your rival, never your enemy. More “space” for thriving is there in place when you self-educate yourself seriously.

Under the highest analysis and in actuality, your worst “sworn out” enemy is the one living by mediocrity and ignorance. Those mobilizing mediocrity and ignorance will eternally recur to violations of ethics, morality and principle. They’re insidious contrarians to the Rule of Law and Rigor Juris, as they wish for the human race to be declared in Rigor Mortis.

# 4.- No “common sense” of antiquity, BUT NOW profound and thorough, judicious and conscientious judgment and updated, expedient and experienced discernment, adaptable, re-adaptable and upgradeable in real time forever. Let’s get real; the only way to operate is (i) cross-functional, (ii) multidimensional and (iii) pluri-contextual — (i), (ii) and (iii) subjected to a plethora of mind’s filters — and to state it mildly, briefly and overly simplistic. Therefore: (i), (ii) and (iii) above are executed at the same time (i.e. simultaneously). Ignoramuses of supine ignorance will insist on short-cutting august bodies of knowledge without knowing the operational consequences, sequels, and sub-sequences.

They don't understand and will never understand the pontificated maxim, “everything is related to everything else.” And to make matters worse, they will deploy and enforce universal and devastating imprudence, imprudence, imprudence and more imprudence. That imprudence so readily activated by the baseness-concentrated “practitioner”. When invoking “Everything is related to everything else,” it is succinctly to say (that is) by way of matter-of-fact example:

“Everything is interrelated to everything else.”
“Everything is connected to everything else.”
“Everything is interconnected to everything else.”
“Everything is intricate to everything else.”
“Everything is involved in everything else.”
“Everything is inter-associated to everything else.”
“Everything is interlocked to everything else.”
“Everything is inter-coupled to everything else.”
“Everything is inter-joined to everything else.”
“Everything is conjoint to everything else.”
“Everything is inter-tied to everything else.”
“Everything is interdependent to everything else.”
“Everything is correlated to everything else.”
“Everything is intertwined with everything else.”
“Everything is intermeshed with everything else.”
“Everything is implicated in everything else.”
“Everything is entangled with everything else.”
“Everything is entwined with everything else.”
“Everything is tangled with everything else.”
“Everything is knotted with everything else.”
“Everything is interwoven into everything else.”
“Everything is engaged with everything else.”
“Everything co-depends on everything else.”
“Everything is parenthetical to everything else.”

Some managers and business practitioners are still planted in the 80’s and 90’s intact. Seemingly, according to them, time is fixed. Subsequently, they keep stubbornly talking about “re-engineering.” Are they informed of the Information Technology Revolution? In this eon, you conceive, develop and create your own future. You don’t use organizational “Band-Aids,” Do you? Even back in those days, Wasn’t re-engineering needing then and now some dramatic overhauling?

Sufficient tsunamis of imprudence to incontrovertibly declare a war to a superpower under unprecedented un-preparedness, further imperiling the viability of this planet. The experts in conflict avoidance and conflict negotiation of the Law School at the University of Harvard are most sought around the world. They made tons of publications and you see the entrepreneur “calling names” to the lead (candidate) that is potentially becoming his / her corporate customer.

The Oxford Dictionary defines “prudent”: “(Of person or conduct) careful to avoid undesired consequences; circumspect; discreet.”

Regardless, and unfortunately, the rampage of systematic violation of prudence will be carried on by both genders without a fail. QUESTION: Are they seeking a medical appointment with Dr. Jack Kevorkian, M.D. ?

A Renaissance man on ethics and morality?

Leonardo Da Vinci (attributed to): “That who doesn’t punish evil facilitates it.”

The good aspect about ignoramuses (also known as simpleton) is that they will unequivocally make certain that thorny issues branch out into greater imprudence.

As sometimes there are errors of judgment and interpretation about a patient’s diagnostics, these same errors are happening all the time in the finest organizations (I mean all types of organizations, including public and NGO ones). To worsen matters further, the judicious and expedient discernment of the driving forces that interconnect this flowing present with divergent futures is an immense effort.

That effort entails that experience and expertise are simultaneously using every science, every art, every practice, every discipline so that is put to work in unprecedented ways to avoid strategic surprises that always demeanor our quality of life while upgrades the potential disruption through a plethora of existential threats that we must micro- and macro-manage in advance and cleverly.

If we keep our mind hypnotized but the idiotic waves and not but the currents underneath, having our sensory capabilities “plugged” to distractions of music and video and un-transcendental “chit chat,” we are set out to ignore issues. And when we ignore issues, we are begging for epic problems. Unfortunately, we get too good at invoking disgraces upon ourselves, Aren’t we? It’s more entertaining and more fun to get advantageous results for the self out of ex nihilo, Isn’t it?

Alvin Toffler dedicates a thought to imprudence masterminds: “In the world of the future, the new illiterate will be the person who has not learned to learn.” [73]

In most advanced risk management application, we must always assess the potential disruption capitalized in incidents and disruptions by the so-called human factor. Some people speak freely and even pontificate about how to accomplish a good interpersonal style. Then you note that person is not getting alone with a diversity of people. But how, in Heavens, do you expect someone to have a good relationship with someone else if he or she has a permanent catastrophic relationship with the own self?

Imprudent people — there are too many ones to the disfavor to the human race — are incessantly and indefatigably in ascertaining an Olympian effort to reinforce the Titanic’s diligence in searching of an iceberg. You cannot go to a new place with an old map. And the place is changing in REAL-TIME FOREVER, Imagine the map?

Some of these imprudent ones are set out to keep insisting on getting a medical consultation appointment with honorable Dr. Jack Kevorkian, M.D. Any physician will give those some words of wisdom and correction.

In speaking about knowledge and ignorance, President John F. Kennedy’s speech on September 12, 1962 at Race University: “We meet at a college noted for knowledge, in a city noted for progress, in a State noted for strength, and we stand in need of all three, for we meet in an hour of change and challenge, in a decade of hope and fear, in an age of both knowledge and ignorance. The greater our knowledge increases, the greater our ignorance unfolds.” [80]

One can be wise even not knowing?

A U.S. Air Force Colonel who used to repeat it frequently: “It's better to remain silent and be thought a fool that open your mouth and remove any doubt.”

There are many things I like about General David Petraeus (at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Petraeus). One is that he is utterly prudent, civil and courteous. I like he knows well how and when and for how long to exercise his utmost toughness. Don't get me wrong, he will assail Attila and the Huns if his Commander and Chief (C. in C.) warrants it. And to an optimum degree.

But this General officer is the type of statesman that is always dealing with the news corps in correction and kindness to cite a brief example. He would even take the Q. A. sessions from any media stunt and immediately elicit: (1) “This I can inform this media about,” and (2) “Because of legal and/or strategic reasons, This I cannot inform this media about.”

He goes out on official commissioning meeting a plethora of diverse people, respecting and honoring even those ones who might be in an antagonistic position with that represented by him, General Petraeus. He's got the superb (qualitative) analytics capabilities, the know-how, an immense ability to go from abstract thinking through and to specific milestones conquering.

I don't hear him “yelling,” but speaking “evenly” and nicely and yet unambiguously. His emotional stability is unbeatable. He's a gentleman and treats everyone as a lady or gentleman. You see, he does not like at all any casualties (in no side). He knows better than anyone else the irreparable cost of blood wasted. He saves his ammo and his best tools are his gestures and crystal-clear thoughts and communication. He is not into demolition BUT INTO MAGNIFICENTLY BUILDING.

Now check the lawyers holding public office at Diplomatic Corps anywhere in the world, making immutable threats from A to Z without measuring the consequences and from a distant place (a bit too hygienic) using said “blood” as “wild-card” arguments to sustain the tenure and perks of their public office holding.

Diplomatic corps should be embedded in some military patrols in Afghanistan to get a feel of thousands of “projectiles” fired at them and to shut up their mouth for good.

Diplomacy and peace?

What does Ambrose Bierce have to say about peace: “…[Peace is,] in international affairs, a period of cheating between two periods of fighting...” [130]

Do they hear to the subject of the Queen who is also an American patriot? Winston Churchill argues in this regard: “…If the human race wishes to have a prolonged and indefinite period of material prosperity, they have only got to behave in a peaceful and helpful way toward one another...” [111]

Regarding people into beloved imprudence, ignorance and not making reasonable decisions by the simpletonhood constituency, Where can we get additional underpinnings?

QUESTION: Do we desperately need a worldwide shortage of ignoramuses and simpletons?

Francisco José de Goya y Lucientes (30 March 1746 — 16 April 1828): “…The reason slept produces monsters...” [98]

Besides not “flaming” further infernos by interpersonal arguments, there is an additional consideration that I’d like to add by my paternal grandfather, who used to remind his children: “Study and, when grown up, you will neither be the tyrants' toy nor the passions' servile slave.”

In speaking about Peace, President John F. Kennedy’s speech on September 12, 1962 at Race University: “We have vowed that we shall not see space filled with weapons of mass destruction, but with instruments of knowledge and understanding.” [80] Seconding this motion, not less but one of the scientist who identified the DNA structure. Thus, Dr. James D. Watson, Ph.D. : “Science gives society a great sense of decisive freedom.” [18]

Most prominent Harvard University's Roger Fisher spoke, at length, about not making “life-to-death” enemies out of everyone and tiny incidents. His calling was about (a) Understanding complexities, and (b) Acting with immense prudence and constructiveness. Mr. Fisher guides his life and profession through severely sensible judgments and actions. A “role model” to be followed in the West and the world. One of his textbooks is outlined at http://amzn.to/a4hLG9

I am certain that Dr. Kissinger can confirm my POV on Mr. Fisher. Do other diplomatic corps around the world have a bookshelf with Fisher’s findings? Before every bee that we wish to make dance like Gene Kelly or Fred Astaire, Do we “tease” it with vinegar or sugar?

If we can fix a little misunderstanding with a hard-copy postcard, Why use — metaphorically speaking — a “shot gun” a priori? Is it that we’re homesick and therefore longing to travel back and establish roots in the “cavemen” domicile? Since we love proving ourselves unable and incompetent to overcome and supersede our human omni-obsolescence, we would “light speed” retreat by staying in the primordial state that savageness so kindly offered in that cozy domicile.

# 5.- No perfection, BUT NOW over-practicing towards [capturing in the facts and especially in before-the-fact mode] over-perfection (like NASA's Mars Rovers vastly demonstrated, these are facts and not “figures of speech”). Since you're imperfect, but totally responsible and conscientious and valuable and unique, you manage facts as the maximum perfectionist. When you're a perfect practitioner, there needn't be any perfectionist. Now, it comes to you “first nature.”

# 6.- No breakthroughs, BUT NOW conquering supernatural inventions and discoveries unendingly.

# 7.- No pseudo-serendipities seizing, BUT NOW pseudo-randomized — as well as entirely randomized — serendipities capturing and yet pseudo-randomized serendipities indirectly conducted ones into millennium-3's Holly Grail Conquests.

Conquests are to avoid and solve unknown and known problems, not to seek glories or powers, but to create valuable opportunities sustainably.

It doesn’t matter because, when you come to think of it, you can NEVER fall outside of exercising most-indispensable impossible-thinking discernment (that is, if you insist on honorably living in a domicile called Millennium 3).

Kindly please, as a result, forget about the serendipity era by Dr. Fleming. As we reverse-engineer any technological device on the face of Earth, by the same token pseudo-serendipities are pseudo-programmed and pseudo-controlled serendipities and otherwise are to be thoroughly besieged by breakthroughs of inventions and discoveries without the anti-Victorian sentiment of the epiphany. Those into mind expansion don’t need epiphany experience in this plane at least.

The Ganges River in India is about 1,560 miles long. In scenario method as applied in Transformative and Integrative Risk Management (http://slidesha.re/Trans-Method), you see the genesis of the river and exercise your discernment to gain insight in advance about how the water currents will behave along each step to the final extreme.

Graphical illustrations considered by “Transformative and Integrative Risk Management” are available at either http://slidesha.re/dUoUcL or at http://bit.ly/fANkcd .

In this approach, there isn’t a three-scenario limit, but indeed unlimited scenario formulation duly prioritized and lavishly countered (within the budget and the ultimate yardstick of financially soundness). To view a summation of what Transformative and Integrative Risk Management entails, log on to http://slidesha.re/TAIRM

Andres Agostini: “…Risk management's unambiguous end is to prevent technological surprise to the enterprise seeking and instituting this advice and service, but also to create technological surprise for the enterprise’s competitors while exploiting every DOWNSIDE risks and transforming them into UPSIDE risks (i.e., sustained benefits and new opportunities)…”

Also note:

The Success pyramid via Transformative and Integrative Risk Management can be seen at http://slidesha.re/bGaOLV

Transformational Success Imperatives via Transformative and Integrative Risk Management can be viewed at http://slidesha.re/cmNKli

By Quality Assurance I mean what is reflect in the following exhibit at http://bit.ly/d4NWqd

By “Transformative And Integrative Risk Management” Methodology I mean what is reflect in the following exhibit at http://bit.ly/9cmgzW

The interaction between possibility and probability and the resulting upside risk or downside risk at http://slidesha.re/a0FCip

Graphical illustrations considered by “Transformative and Integrative Risk Management” are available at either http://slidesha.re/dUoUcL or at http://bit.ly/fANkcd .

I have here spoken about mind expansion utilization. To cite an example to understand early on the Ganges River, among other applications, you will need what it’s called epidemiological thinking in place.

How Do We Do Our Challenges and Problems To Seize Our Benefits and Opportunities! See it at http://slidesha.re/cgVmiS

Regarding a “scenario” as that of the Ganges River, What is the take of a wise person 500 years before the advent of our Common Era? Let’s say, Heraclites — Greek Philosopher (c.540 — c. 480 BC) indicated: “…No man ever steps into the same river twice, for it’s not the same river and he’s not the same men...” [105]

Speaking of the Ganges River and the usefulness of Transformative And Integrative Risk Management, see what the NASA’s founding father of Systems Risk Management comments:

Dr. Vernon Grose, D.Sc.: “If a risk is not first identified, it can never be evaluated or controlled. So risk identification is like the headwaters of a river. All hazards [and its concomitant scenarios viewed in advance], not just the obvious, must be flushed out and brought to the attention of top management.” [99]

# 8.- No uninformed and/or savvy hunches, BUT NOW systematically all-knowingness bliss instituted by an all-out, over-focused and amplified brain, in which every hemisphere of the brain is exceedingly conjugated [in congruity and amplification] beyond the whole and/or the sum of the parts (thus exercising a global management perspective). You still have plenty of time before omni-bots take over, believe it or not! Would you love to ask Sir Martin Rees about it (might verify it here by the non fainthearted at http://amzn.to/boqqYf)?

Speaking of “omni-bots,” there is an interesting quotation to further respective understanding by Max Frisch (1911 — 1991): “In the nineteenth century the problem was that God is dead; in the twentieth century the problem is that man is dead. In the nineteenth century inhumanity meant cruelty; in the twentieth century it means schizoid self-alienation. The danger of the future is that men may become robots.” [70]

In my 1980 mechanical engineering technology workshop class, we had an experimental “desktop” robot designing to perfection and making sophisticated parts to over-perfection already (American technology). That took place in Montreal’s Dawson College. Now, if the totality of knowledge is ? by some estimates ? doubling between every 5 to 2 years, How many scientific knowledge doublings have taken place since 1980? Some insight on this I elaborated about at http://bit.ly/9p3jFf and please also note the “Future Elicitation and Elucidation” Encyclopedia at http://bit.ly/98hNxC

Realities are realities (chiefly extremely daring)?

“That ultraintelligent machines might lead to a future that is very different from today ? we may not like it, and at that point we may not have a choice.” [192]

Dr. Carol Bilsborough, Ph.D., a friend of mine, got her doctoral degree in the late sixties. In the year 2000, she told me that all over American universities professors and technologies were speaking of having the actual capabilities in place to manufacture everything with half of the then current headcount (manpower). Everyone wishes progress, Doesn’t he / she? These material desires will take us to the Technological Singularity (if the caveat allows it), the same technological singularity taught by NASA’ and Google’s Singularity University. Yes, yes, that is: If the CAVEAT below permits it.

# 9.- No wizardry, BUT NOW solemn execution and conscientious activation of every neuro-cell and gene and gene clusters through and until over-outcomes completion and over-completion sustained through times. And if there is real solemnity brought into action, there must also be impeccable decorum.

There is no moment now or ever for ideological or cultural inquisitions or disquisitions as if the ever-Byzantine one attempting to decipher the genders of the Angels and Archangels. The resolution of that debate is beyond the scope of this book. For instance, let's be specifically helpful: Can we turn de novo mutations and transmutations into highly desirable and fruitful anti-polymorphisms?

# 10.- No mundane universe, BUT NOW a sacrosanct multiverse, a multiverse with zillion dimensions whose calculations per yoctosecond are unstoppable. Until when? Until Computronium’s last say! In the mean time, scientific knowledge doubling will keep carrying on until what I call the “caveat.” See that “caveat” at http://bit.ly/9p3jFf

In “Leading The Revolution” (2000) textbook, Prof. Gary Hamel (http://bit.ly/dhcweR) makes an important point. Hamel is the Strategos Institute founder (http://www.strategos.com/) and Professor to London Business School (http://www.london.edu/).

There he establishes that, in order to close the leading-edge educational gap worldwide, there needs to be — via the Web — massive formal lectures (tele-education) of 100,000 pupils per each hour. In doing this, you can irradiate hope with grounds and overcome said “caveat.”

# 11.- No “loud and clear” communication will ever suffice, BUT NOW kind, constructive, tactful and unambiguous over-communication with the applied omniscience perspective. Humans are transferring unprecedented levels of complexity (onto themselves and others), as well as the universe is beyond pronouncing, to everything they do (regardless of your noticing or not of zillion layers of sublimities, subtleties, intricacies and so on).

Hence, and unless you have unprecedented dominion in practice of every facet of science of complexities in your framework, please forget mentioning the appalling word “simplicity” and turn it back to honorable Thomas Paine, so that it’s coupled and buried with that reckless lexicon “common sense.”

Making the case against appalling “simplicity,” AT&T CEO in 1995 said: “The complexity of trying to manage these different businesses began to overwhelm the advantages of integration. The world has changed. Markets have changed.” [64]

# 12.- No marketing “mumbled chats” by sales reps into snake-oil selling and improper “charming,” BUT NOW turning your daydreams in turbo-charged drivers towards indeed relevant driving forces lucidly, clearly and efficaciously. Remember to forget the waves and heed the underneath currents. Being superficial is a magnificent, yet a petty enchantment by and for the ill, flawed and evil while dis-servicing the humankind further. “Charming” is the “ing”-form of the plural noun “CHARMERS.”

# 13.- No sales, BUT NOW legitimately profiting from the lucrative redefinition of frictionless capitalism only for the service of the People and by the People. There is “the People and for the People and by the People” only if these incumbents self-ignite themselves into energetic democracy through pervasively brainy intelligence.

If “The People and for the People and by the People” does not take ownership of their rights and duties, somebody else will and ruthlessly. “Self-ignite themselves into energetic democratic” equates to possessing own self-drive for relevant achievement with the Hellenistic perspective. [129]

# 14.- No politics as usual, BUT NOW unusual scientific mind-set with millinery tact and civility extraneous to manipulation, deceit and lie-telling, yet beyond unimpeachable orthodoxy towards relevance, growth and peace.

# 15.- No quick whispered talk, BUT NOW slow and wise. No slow deed BUT NOW light-speed executions with deepest knowledge of your operational achievements. Too many ones wish to ignore, bastardize and satirized theory to “succeed,” as per their flawed POVs, in a blind and effortless “practice” to furthering searching of their own existential undermining (sometimes own devastation).

To the ones exercising their own civil rights, there are words of immense precaution. Timely is to remember Einstein’s thoughts, “There is nothing more practical than theory.” [111] Folks, listening to Einstein, get beyond acrimonious and bitter and get unproductive. That is, to achieve or not to achieve what? What is and what is not the strategic end in said folks’ pursuit?

# 16.- To this end: U.S. clergyman and academician George W. Rutler, S.T.D. (Doctor of Sacred Theology) clearly stated that compared to the illustration in existence in the Dark Ages was, by far, much more illuminated than that of this era of the global “society of knowledge.”

Father and Dr. Rutler is the author of the book: Crisis of Saints: The Call to Heroic Faith in an Unheroic World (ISBN-10: 0824525256). Ruttler added that there is universal grave misunderstanding and permanent and ever-increasing underestimation concerning the enlightenment degree pursued in the Dark Ages, clearly suggesting that said pursue then was much greater then than now.

In any field of knowledge, Rutler's intellect is beyond sophistication by any serious measure. Regardless of systems of belief and cosmos-vision and weltanschauung, I enjoy immensely consecrated intellects that speak of peace and enlightenment search and electrified implementation above and beyond dogma and doctrine. You just can’t question an impeccable intellect wherever it comes from, since it comes from everywhere with immaculate reasoning.

# 17.- This world is immersed in too many global crises. Many sub-optimum strategies are being tried as countermeasures (rampantly failing for over twelve years to our joint disgrace) with outdated and erroneous discernment processes. Priorities, guidelines, protocols, benchmarks, metrics, criteria, profiling, diagnostics are way beyond flawed and incomplete.

To shed light Dr. Einstein subsequently indicates: “...The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of thinking we were at when we created them...” [153] Dr. Bertrand Russell, along those lines addressing this fashionable “phenomena,” also sentenced: “I know of more people who'd rather die than think.” [111]

# 18.- Around the world, beginning with all kinds of public servants in advanced nations, are freely speaking of two terms. One is “systemic risk” and the other is “volatility.” Ninety-eight percent, being merciful, of said constituents have no idea at all what they’re talking about and sometimes legislating and regulating and reforming frames of reference upon the weakest grounds and most labile merits. In addition they had no idea about the science, art, practice, discipline and ultimate-truth-seeking endeavors of absolute management, do they?

# 19.- No priorities, BUT NOW an structured existential sense of urgency with an august body of new theories and through rampant and refined operational weaponry of organizational and implement-able management. Again, it’s about notably practical theories. Some folks are paying great attention, but the largest majorities are set to allow their life circumstances to be ruled by limbos and self-seduced devastation. Dr. Henry Kissinger incontrovertibly indicated, “An ignored issue is an invitation to problems.”

You might like or dislike Dr. Kissinger. But in my view he is the most eminent geopolitical academician and practitioner alive in the world today.

# 20.- No material magnates, BUT NOW spiritual and intellectual tycoons. We need magnates to generate employment and economic dynamism.

# 21.- No more leadership, BUT NOW lavishly solving it all by learning, teaching and question-making within unconditional relevance to both their communities and the world at large.

# 22.- No excellence quest, BUT NOW the re-conceptualization of management's Holly Grail for Life. Unfortunately, the words “excellent” and “excellence” have been worn out impiously. Ergo, we must go back to the scientific method practice and parlance (say, “optimum,” “sub-optimum,” “ineffectual,” “inessential”).

# 23.- No Napoleon Hill, BUT NOW Napoleon Bonaparte and the Industrial Military Complex (including DARPA, NASA, et al.) [94]. To the socialistic digerati I call upon his / her attention that the web and the Internet were solely manufactured by DARPA.

# 24.- No “success” accomplishers turned into “masterminds” — so-called —, BUT NOW a roulette “spinner” in a dogged search against ubiquitous Mediocrity Dom and on behalf of crippling the securing of failure in the light of daring maximum uncertainties.

There are majorities feeling that they’re prevailing by imposing on themselves the success of failure. They even boast about it. Relax that your Magna Charta allows for you to pontificate on consummating silliness as your own for-Life apostle-hood, as long as you don't damage the innocent by-standers.

If Napoleon Hill is the maximum “mastermind,” Can we consequently call “baby” masterminds the ensuing: Moses, Socrates, Archimedes, Newton, Aristotle, Plato, Shakespeare, Bacon, Milton, Galileo, Da Vinci, Kant, Nietzsche, Goethe?

# 25.- No more “street smart” (rather “Silicon Valley” savvy), BUT NOW Silicon Valley' and space-walkers' cleverness, guiding the driving forces in the world, universe and multiverse. You must go to Mars and every Exolar Planet to better understand Earth. As JFK putted it,

“But why, some say, the moon? Why choose this as our goal? And they may well ask why climb the highest mountain? Why, 35 years ago, fly the Atlantic? Why does Rice play Texas? We choose to go to the moon. We choose to go to the moon ? We choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard, because that goal will serve to organize and measure the best of our energies and skills, because that challenge is one that we're willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postpone, and one we intend to win, and the others, too.”

# 26.- No emotional intelligence, nor political correctness, BUT NOW ethics, morality and principle-center crystallized and galvanized into deeds. Ask Francis Bacon, “baseness” and uncouthness are for consummated losers and flawed doers or un-institutionalized psychopaths that eminent Sir Martin Rees affectionately calls “loners.” He is the English Crown’s top scientist and a prominent Cambridge University professor.

Were Newton and Da Vinci dangerous “loners”? Dangerous to mediocre cosmos? Indeed!

# 27.- No IPOs, BUT NOW the starting and blurring flux of betting wildest dreams and nightmares between Vegas and M.I.T. between NASA’s Ames Research Center and Monte Carlo, between Byzantium and Oxbridge, between the libraries of Alexandria and that of the U.S. Library of Congress.

# 28.- No Sci nor Fi, BUT NOW actionable OmniSci.

# 29.- No more chemistry, BUT NOW most advanced materials science applications.

# 30.- No more quantum mechanics, BUT NOW most advanced nanotechnology applications.

# 31.- No more biotechnology, BUT NOW most advanced biotechnology-and-genomic applications.

# 32.- No more mathematics, BUT NOW most advanced Artificial Intelligence computing applications.

# 33.- No more green energy, BUT NOW getting a perpetual pro bono ride from gravity and/or “dark matter and dark energy” forces or forces propelled by the intermeshed of electromagnetic fields besieging Earth and cosmos, sequestered and modulated onto any commuting and/or mobilizing and/or awaken device, regardless of size and scale.

# 34.- No more insurance, BUT NOW bazaar tokens to gamble your compromised mortgage or business plan against a vivid, uncontrolled hallucination, while your inputted funds are enjoyed à la Dolce Vita by the few reputable, insurers and re-insurers — so-called. What do they insure? Indeed! Do insurers assure that “losses funds” or “losses reserves” are extremely well gambled to the favor of the proprietorship of such insurer’s companies at the expense of the folly “policy holder”?

# 35.- No more banking, BUT NOW the start-up cost to wasting you 401K as per your own sovereign desires.

# 36.- No more stock options, BUT NOW robust investments in graveyards and coffins, transportable into outer space. Does one need a stock trader to “honestly” broker matters of afterworld and afterlife really?

The undersigned and the present material’s author: “Until rigor mortis is completed, there’d better be rigor juris only.” [92] You won’t go cryogenized, Will you? A broker to do what? Isn't there the web and Internet, the grandiosest disintermediator indeed, in the first place? In addressing some matters of educational reforms, former British Premier Tony Blair insisted aloud and vehemently on three words: “EDUCATION, EDUCATION, EDUCATION.”

# 37.- No more beyond petroleum, BUT NOW the supine ignorance of stewarding Beyond Perils without most advanced risk management both in private, public, NGO and supranational office. The American Negro Foundation, by the way, has a superb institutional message: “a mind is a terrible thing to waste.”

# 38.- No more foolishness of Keeping It Simple — Stupid, BUT NOW Keep It Scientific — Savant. Scan around for the right K.I.S.S. Ascertain it isn't the failing French mode one.

# 39.- Challenge yourself, BUT NOW is about over-challenging yourself perennially to over-accomplish eternally and outsmarting legitimate and lawful “rivals.” Honor them and do as Mr. Lincoln, eliminating your enemies by transforming them into your friends. Friends does not equate with an onerous psychiatrists.

# 40.- There are not processes — so-called —, BUT NOW carefully crafted, knowledge-laden transactions whose channels and pathways are being systemically, systematically and holistically considered, strategized, managed, and corrected to indisputably optimum quality results (thus exercising a global management perspective).

Optimum quality is a matter of practical and palpable tangibles though there is a huge prerequisite (that must come in early on before ANYTHING else), which is represented by the intangibles embedded in the august body of knowledge that secures said practical and palpable tangibles.

It is not here connoted “transaction” as a matter of a financial deed but, rather, as an important engineered action of onerous intangibles with the applied omniscience perspective. In matters of great silliness, there are multitudes concerned about the usage of semantics. In matters of great relevance to Earth, there are NEVER multitudes concerned about the optimum usage of semantics.

# 41.- Incidentally and regarding the level of quality, times changes: (a) the specifications, (b) the expectations, (c) the standards, (d) the best practices (seriously), and so on. Those “best practices” are under the huge requirement of qualitative overhauling while multitudes insist on worshiping quantitative analyzes to further amplify their own blunders into large calamities. No, no, no. Analytics is about 90% qualitative states and 10% quantitative states (sic). These “states” are impermanent and under forces of flux beyond 3-D lateral thinking. Get onboard some tiny bit of vertical thinking as well, among many other amenities. Sir Winston Churchill has many approaches to institute mind amplification, one of them given to him by a prominent New Yorker. Yes, lateral thinking is indeed a sensible step. But I believe that, though is greatly appreciated by the undersigned, it will not suffice at all by itself only.

What is lateral thinking? “Lateral thinking is both an attitude and also a number of defined methods. The attitude of mind involves the willingness to try to look at things in different ways. It involves an appreciation that any way of looking at things is only one among many possible ways. It involves an understanding of how the mind uses patterns and the need to escape from an established pattern in order to switch into a better one.” (Edward De Bono) [133]

# 42.- It is not a matter about “thinking out of the box,” BUT NOW it's concerning thinking about this multiverse (multiverse equates to computronium). If the present is a function of the future, Is the multiverse a function of the future too? Or is the future a function of the multiverse? I will be addressing these questions at a later time as some reflections and scientific research becomes available to me. [84], [85]

# 43.- No omniscience, BUT NOW it’s about utilizing optimum applied omniscience to systematically and progressively understand the fundamental mechanisms (e.g., fundamental mechanisms equate to fundamental systems) underlying any targeted component, sub-system and system under and beyond the Sun. Got to go epidemiological thinking, gestalt and Einstenian gedanke. Stay at rest when you notice physicians, psychiatrists and psychologists in a hurry telling you that the human being is not a single system but a “multi-systemic system.”

All things considered ultimately, and given the ruling of and by the patrician and patriarch multiverse, any system — when held against taxonomic comparisons before the multiverse — is always a sub-system. We got on the luminescent boat boarded by several patriarchs, including Aristotle and Plato as an infinitesimal fraction of the down payment. The wrong expression is “multi-systemic system” while the undeniably correct one is “multi-subsystemic system.”

# 44.- It Doesn’t Suffice Anymore:

“Seek and You Shall Find
Ask and You Shall Receive
Knock and the door
Shall be opened.”

BUT NOW:

“Over-Seek and You Shall Over-Find
Over-Ask and You Shall Over-Receive
Over-Knock and the door
Shall be overly opened.”

# 45.- No sub-standard term, BUT NOW the universal application — before problem avoidance and problem solution and opportunity creation — of the “D. S.” acronym, that is really: Doctor in Science (D.Sc.). No silly needs here. Doctor is a millenarian term that means “teacher.” Is there a Doctor in Fine Arts? Don’t we need a Doctor in Fine Arts? Don't ever seek the best teacher you want outside YOURSELF unless you adore being slaved.

A PROMINENT MESSAGE ON LEADERSHIP FROM THE SIXTEENTH CENTURY:

St. Ignatius Loyola (1491 — 1556) — founder of the Jesuits — :
“Teach us, good Lord, to serve Thee as Thou deservest;
To give and not to count the cost;
To fight and not to heed the wounds;
To toil and not to seek for rest;
To labour and not to ask for any reward
Save that of knowing that we do Thy will.”

Along these lines above and acting as reinforcements, there is the ensuing notion.

Rabindranath Tagore: “I slept and dreamed that life was joy. I awoke and saw that life was service. I acted, and behold, service was joy.” [153]

# 46.- NB: As the American sage stated it — seriously speaking — , “every little bit helps.” [111]

In the mean time, the undersigned suggest his own self the ensuing:

“Follow and institute your own omniscience-driven bliss without innuendos. Thus, demolish this trivial present as your executions are focused (a là Zen) on conceiving, developing and implementing new futures in the as-of-now present and beyond!” [1]

« CHAPTER 5 »
“ON PREDICTIONS”

“…Predictions tend to be linear extrapolations; technological advances tend to throw curves. Predicting poorly one curved is already impossible enough without adding three more curves, to say nothing of the seven others neither of us considered, but which will actually play a more central role...” By Dr. Michael Fossel, Ph.D. , M.D.

There are some predictions and forecast included in this work as they were elaborated by independent third parties. I only do “driving forces” and their concrete projections for customers and myself.

« CHAPTER 6 »
DEMYSTIFYING THE “REAL DEAL” IN PROFESSION, TECHNOLOGY, LEADERSHIP, MANAGEMENT, STRATEGY, AND BUSINESS, AS WELL AS OFFERING THE CLEAREST BLUEPRINT!

Briefly and generically stated, you meet and prevail through realities by instituting — for instance ? the following road map.

First! Once you understand that the most important thing to nurture is the rotational-and-translational motion revolting within and beyond the innermost core of / by you, you can do your ethics and morality. Now you have conquered bridge 1. Conquering the foundational pillar also implies that ever facet of your personal and professional life will be carried on with dogged solemnity.

Second! Once you do your ethics and morality, you can do your actionable knowledge for Life. Now you have conquered and will be conquering bridge 2 for Life.

Third! Once your actionable knowledge is done by you, you can do your corporate planning and respective marshaled strategy. Now you have conquered and will be conquering bridge 3 for Life.

Fourth! Once your corporate planning and respective marshaled strategy is done by you, you can do your systems hazard management. Now you have conquered and will be conquering bridge 4 for Life.

Fifth! Once your systems hazard management is done by you, you can do your systems quality assurance management. Now you have conquered and will be conquering bridge 5 for Life.

Sixth! Once your cross-functional systems quality assurance management is done by you, you can do your systems reliability engineering. Now you have conquered and will be conquering bridge 6 for Life.

Seventh! Once your systems reliability engineering is done by you, you can do your systems risk management. Now you have conquered and will be conquering bridge 7 for Life.

Eighth! Once your systems risk management — with the applied omniscience perspective — is done by you, you can do your contingency planning lavishly (with thousands layers of redundancy in place) for Life. Now you have conquered and will be conquering bridge 8 for Life.

Ninth! When your contingency planning is done by you, you can do your benefits (upsides and downsides). Now you have conquered and will be conquering bridge 9 for Life.

Tenth! When benefits are done by you and you become hyper-engage into pervasively transformational self-renewal and self-challenging (in excelsis) of your own intellect, you can do your sustainability perpetually. Now you have conquered and will be conquering bridge 10 for Life.

Eleventh! Now you can conceive and design your own profession and tenure while concentrating in capturing womb-to-tomb (so-called) “success” and its gargantuan sustainability effort. Now you have conquered and will be conquering bridge 11 for Life.

Twelfth! Neither “the secret,” nor the “hidden secret,” nor the “discrete secret” magnificent marketing stunts will warrant the oxygen that your mind, body, and souls require (sic). Now you have conquered and will be conquering bridge 12 for Life.

« CHAPTER 6 »
QUESTION: What do Ralph Waldo Emerson, James D. Watson, Thomas Jefferson, Theodore Roosevelt, Winston Churchill, Arthur C. Clarke, Bernard D'espagnat, Albert Einstein, Carl Sagan, Malcolm S. Knowles, Bertrand Russell, Francis Bacon, Henry Kissinger, Otto Herman Khan, Burrhus Frederic Skinner, and the Panchatantra << http://bit.ly/bj0rI1>> have in common, so they can offer us a positive and constructive reflection to navigate with an even-keeled vessel through unchartered waters in the third millennium? — A Critico-Creative Thinking Prescription To Illustrate Success In 16 Steps!

Emerson indicates that educators do not educate but offer the means of education. I am not trying to educate anyone but myself through these lines. However, most of my wisest colleagues and thoughtful friends are seeking relevant contents. Relevant contents that prove interesting in entertaining their legitimately hungriest minds as they mean well in every purpose. All citations here are accurate to the best of my knowledge. Not even for educational purposes have them been simplified or modified in any way since it is neither my duty nor nature as of now. Subsequently, quotations have been kept intact as they have become available to me.

1.- First off, we must establish universal acceptance of the greatest axiom of all times pertaining to the subject matter to be dealt with now. Said axiom establishes: “An ounce of prevention is worth millions of dollars of cure.” In the West we are over-working at the “cure” while under-working at the “prevention.”

2.- Having spoken of prevention, let’s now chat about preventive medicine by using the greatest wisdom of Sir Francis Bacon: “He that will not apply new remedies must expect new evils, for time is the greatest innovator.”

3.- Okay, Bacon has spoken loud and clear. People who listens to him benefits greatly. Those who don’t are in shock, bewilderment, and even in times of struggle. We have the choice to ignore his extreme wisdom or we can accept and practice it thoroughly in every facet of our lives.

The undersigned firmly suggests either one or the other, since “gray scales” type of choices will not work for us at all. The term “extreme” sometimes can be optimal. See, for instance, NASA’s effort in sending an unmanned Rover to Mars. Wasn’t that over-perfection after traveling — by means of highly sophisticated telemetry — some 120 million miles into outer space? Does that say which type of out-this-Earth “excellence” is achievable above and beyond industry fashionable “quality assurance” standards? OR IS IT UPFRONT AND OUTRIGHT OVER-PERFECTION?

4.- If we take Bacon’s wisdom literally, we are exploiting the UPSIDE of our life’s risks. If we don’t take Bacon’s wisdom literally, we are exploiting the DOWNSIDE of our life’s risks.

5.- Supporting the Bacon motion there is that of Dr. Bertrand Russell. This finest Briton, supporting further Bacon’s motion (under 2, 3, and 4), indicated: “I know more people who prefer to die than to think.” Intellectual laziness is a topic heavily studied and addressed by advanced scientists. The idea is simply getting people in deep, systematic thinking forever (thus exercising a global management perspective).

6.- As I really wish to offer you every possibility of hope and optimism, rigor calls upon me to exhaust the downsides so that said downsides eventually become UPSIDES. Albert Einstein and Buckminster Fuller will be making their great ensuing contributions. Einstein: “It has become appallingly obvious that our technology has exceeded our humanity … We shall require a substantially new manner of thinking if mankind is to survive.”

7.- Supporting Einstein motion, Buckminster Fuller reminds us of the following: “Either war is obsolete, or men are.” Truly respectful opinions that of Russell, Einstein, and Buckminster Fuller.

But the German philosopher, Friedrich Wilhelm Nietzsche, reiterates that if we change the present we can change the future, and if we change the future — as well as the way we proactively and qualitatively envision and practice it through futuristic scenario methods — we will be changing the present in fact and taking increasing control over the negative circumstances that impact us.

Nietzsche stated exactly: “...It’s our future that lays down the law of our today...” [110].

Can a prominent USA president make a difference and yet further support the Nietzsche motion? I think so. Ensuing:

8.- Theodore Roosevelt, a lifelong and topflight statesman concerned about making the best out of his mind and that of his constituents, established: “All the resources we need are in the mind.”

Dr. Carl Sagan, notwithstanding acknowledging the wisdom by Nietzsche and Roosevelt, really wishes making a point of his own next.

9.- So Sagan made his motion public, which basically indicates that if we embrace serious knowledge progressively, we will build great hope for the world. Without euphemisms, in this case “world” is an analogous term to “the people” and “by/for the people” worldwide.

He said: “...The greatest danger for the survival of the present civilization is neither atomic war, nor environmental pollution, nor the exploitation of natural resources, and nor present crises. The underlying cause to all of the above is the acceleration of man’s obsolescence … The only hope seems to be an electroshock program to re-instill to the current adults the competencies required to function adequately under a mode of perpetual change. This is a profound need — the immeasurable challenge — that is presented by the modern society to adult educator...”

Emerson understands Sagan but he really wishes to make a more hopeful and viable point.

10.- Ralph Waldo Emerson writes: “...Man hopes; Genius creates...” [116]

As you make your knowledge more driven by you and as per the goal, objectives, and results expected from you and by yourself, the smarter you will become without a fail. The more intelligent you become, the much better at solving problems — regardless of how simple or complex they are — you’ll become. Becoming truly intelligent is a bit of a struggle but it also fully winnable, educational, and enjoyable. And in my opinion no one can contradict Emerson on such an important theme. In some strange form, though with a positive outcome, Dr. Knowles wishes to confirm the exactness of the Emerson motion by using his words in a different way now. In matters of education, I habitually suggest researching the life of Dr. Burrhus Frederic Skinner, “...Education is what survives when what has been learned has been forgotten...” [116] If we ignore education, we end up ignoring our own survival. Dr. Henry Kissinger addresses it here: “...An ignored issue is an invitation to problems...” [116]

11.- Dr. Malcolm S. Knowles, Ph.D. Stated: “... The greatest danger for the survival of the present civilization is neither atomic war, nor environmental pollution, nor the exploitation of natural resources, and nor present crises. The underlying cause to all of the above is the acceleration of man’s obsolescence … The only hope seems to be an electroshock program to re-instill to the current adults the competencies required to function adequately under a mode of perpetual change. This is a profound need — the immeasurable challenge — that is presented by the modern society to adult educator ...”

A compatriot of Dr. Knowles, and former president of the United States, wishes to offer his insight thus underpinning the motions by Emerson and Knowles. Practical, actionable, mobilizing, and theoretical education are important because of the means to overcome and supersede any increasing obstacle as Einstein proved by claiming: “...The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of thinking we were at when we created them ...” [153] But if you use the highest order level of knowledge systemically, you can win. [116]

12.- Thomas Jefferson let us know: “...I am captivated more by dreams of the future than by history of the past....” [116] You see, an indeed conscientious futurist always thinks through doing all his risks FIRST to then accede to doing all his futures and the benefits stemming from said futures SECOND.

I believe Jefferson was America’s first, foremost, and most responsible futurologist. In high spirits and under great responsibility, he added: “...Probable impossibilities are to be preferred to improbable possibilities...”

13.- Then a great Briton and American came along to support Thomas Jefferson motion to the fullest. His name is Winston Spencer Churchill. Yes, he was Prime Minister of the U.K. and became American through an enacted law by the U.S. Congress. And, in his time, Sir Winston Churchill lucidly asserted the following: “...The empires of the future are the empires of the mind ...”

Then, Machado (from Spain) made his motion in supporting further and yet in a subtle way the Churchill motion.

14.- Antonio Machado established: “... An eye is not an eye because you see it; an eye is an eye because it sees you ...” Going even further than Machado regarding what grants a person the maximum possible own visibility of the world (cosmosvision, i.e. weltanschauung), the Panchatantra (body of Eastern philosophical knowledge) offers us a maxim: “ … Knowledge is the true organ of sight, not the eyes ...”

Then Bernard d'Espagnat finds a middle-ground for the motions by Machado and the Panchatantra by saying: “ … Even if the Universe is a little myopic is true that, more than others, MEN OF SCIENCE ARE ITS EYES ...”

15.- The father of American management — and that of management spread out over the world — wishes to make an optimistic point and a word of caution that is “fine tuned-up” with all of the current work. I am referring to Peter Drucker, “ … Things that have already happened but whose consequences have not been realized [because they were not imagined, considered, or envisioned by disciplined foresight and far-sight] … Don’t confuse movement with progress ...” [116]

Furthering the Drucker position, a great American Nobel laureate — one of the scientists discovering the DNA structure — is bound to amalgamating this motion. I mean James D. Watson, Ph.D.

16.- Watson tells in Charlie Rose show, originally aired in 2009, a relevant and constructive thought for our greater enlightenment with hope: “... Science gives society a great sense of decisive freedom ...”

Watson motion gets amplified by the luminescent assertion by Arthur C. Clarke: “ … We have to abandon the idea that schooling is something restricted to youth. How can it be, in a world where half the things a man knows at 20 are no longer true at 40 — and half of the things he knows at 40 hadn’t been discovered when he was 20? ...” [116]

In supporting all motions — without being contradictory — Otto Herman Khan, German-American whose contributions are beyond the sine qua non quality these days, takes to a final pondering by indicating: “ … Clearly, the first task is to gain acceptance of a more reasonable view of the future, one that opens possibilities rather than forecloses them ...” [116]

« CHAPTER 6 »
CONCLUSION!

British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli staged in the world of knowledge a wonderful reflection. To this end his contributions are world-class and numerous. Once known that he was elected for public office, a journalist asked him: “ ...What will you first government action be? … ” Disraeli readily responded: “ … I will send my best friend to Australia ...” “To the antipodes? What for?, ...” the journalist asked. “ … So my friends tell me how my administration here is seen from there, ...” Disraeli most accurately responded. [116]

Disraeli’s intellect was immense. And he also was a “future-ready” type of a prominent large-scale CEO. In his mentioning of Australia, one could establish — playing through serious critico-creative thinking — that Disraeli was actually thinking about sending his best friend into the future. So that said friend could gain — in ample foresight with far-sight — the most reliable feedback (kind-of public opinion ratings) way in advance from the locus where the broadest perspective can be gained at the maximum and the easiest and the earliest.

General Francisco de Miranda — an outsider with a Londoner’s heart, mind, and a British wife in the nineteenth century fighting against the Spanish army in the Americas — stated a phrase that greatly bolsters the brief and yet lucid dialogue held by Disraeli above. Miranda said: “ … Time is the context by means of which action is delivered ...” [116]

« CHAPTER 6 »
QUESTION: ARE WE ADRIFT IN A SEA OF CONFUSION? CAN THE UNDERSIGNED OFFER A REASONABLE PATHWAY?

I hear and read a great deal about “managing effectively,” “leading the most pervasive applied leadership,” “capturing the greatest success (in a sustained mode) in profession, business, life, and society.”

That heard and read is greatly helpful and interesting. But I am most critical with my “strong sense,” critico-creative discernment processes in search for maximum truth (and or maximum truth updating and upgrading) and to refine my character and personality.

Paraphrasing the magnanimous rocket scientist, I have always forewarned my colleagues, customers, and friends that I will require myself the maximum and, therefore, I habitually assert: “ … My goal is simple. It is a complete understanding of the universe, why it is as it is and why it exists at all ...”

On January 10, 2010 at 11:12 p.m. EST, I put together some own reflections to offer my view, remaining respectful of that of others, here:

“ … To be a conscientiously human being into deep, subtle, and proactive awareness, you need to entertain some form of profound spirituality understanding that the greatest wealth is that of the spirit and the enlightened mind (those splendid intangibles). Once you do your own most conscientious awareness for Life, you can increasingly do your morality and ethics for said Life. Once you do your morality and ethics, you can do your actionable knowledge. In order to capture ever-updatable and perpetually amplifiable as well as actionable knowledge, you and only you must challenge yourself intellectually as if you were competing with your strongest opponent. If you really wish to immerse your mind into the perspective of the applied all-knowingness, you most make the greatest effort — in a sustained mode — towards actionable and applicable omniscience « http://bit.ly/Omniscience_Defined_by_Andres_Agostini », chiefly with the perspective attached by the most sophisticated exact sciences. Once you do your intellect, knowledge, and science, you can lucidly conceive your lucrative futures for the so-called and lamentable ‘heres and nows.’ When your futures are done, conceived, visualized, and developed way in advance, foresight, and far-sight by you, you can then do your upside and downside risks. When risks are done solely by you optimally, you can do your benefits. Your risks get much better done when you consider lavish provisions for contingency planning under the rigor and vigor of mentioned omniscience. Now you know — complete the entirety of this process throughput systematically, systemically, holistically (as well as before-the facts manner), and without ignoring a single step mentioned above (thus exercising a global management perspective) — how to proceed in capturing success in personal, professional, organizational, and societal life. Can you now commence your own development, by and for yourself, of self-improvement and/or self-betterment? ...” [129]

« CHAPTER 6 »
GLOBAL SEISMIC SHIFTS BY DR. STEPHEN COVEY, PH.D. !

Beginning of the quotation by Dr. Covey.

“ … As we move now to seek a deeper understanding of the organizational challenge, I invite you to consider seven seismic shifts that characterize the new Knowledge Worker Age. In them you find the context of today’s workplace and of your personal challenges .... [*] The Globalization of Markets and Technologies: New technologies are transforming most local, regional and national markets into global markets without borders .... [*] The Emergence of Universal Connectivity: In the book Blown to Bits, Evans and Wurster state, ‘The narrow, hard-wired, and proprietary communication channels that bound people or companies together have become obsolete almost overnight. And with them, the very business structures that created or exploited those channels have also become obsolete. In short, the glue that has traditionally held all of our economic activities together is rapidly melting in the heat of universal connectivity. And this will separate the flow of information from the flow of things for the first time in history?....[*] The Democratization of Information/Expectations: No one manages the Internet. It is a sea change of global proportion. For the first time in history the pure voice of the human spirit rings out in millions of unedited conversations unfettered by borders. Real-time information drives expectations and social will which ultimately drive the political will that impacts every person .... [*] An Exponential Increase in Competition: The Internet and satellite technologies make anybody who is hooked up a potential competitor. Organizations must constantly develop better ways of competing against lower labor prices, lower material costs, faster innovation, greater efficiency and higher quality. The forces of free enterprise and competition are driving quality up, driving cost down and driving increased speed and flexibility in order to do the job the customer has hired us to do. No one can afford to simply benchmark against competitors or even so-called excellence; we must benchmark against ‘world class.’ .... [*] The Movement of Wealth Creation from Financial Capital to Intellectual and Social Capital: The wealth-creation movement has gone from money to people?from financial capital to the summary notion of human capital (both intellectual and social), which includes all dimensions.; twenty years ago it was less than one-third .... [*] Free Agency: People are becoming more and more informed, aware and conscious of options and alternatives than ever before. The employment market is turning into a free agent market and people have more and more awareness of choices. Knowledge workers will resist management efforts to label them, and they are increasingly determined to brand themselves .... [*] Permanent White Water: We live in a constant, churning, changing environment. In turbulent white water, every single person must have something inside them that guides their decisions. They must independently understand the purpose and guiding principles of the team or organization. If you try to manage them, they won’t even hear you. The noise, the roar, the immediacy and urgency of all dynamic challenges they face will simply be too great ...” [153]

End of the quotation by Dr. Covey.

Are we over-connected?
“…We are hanging eyes, ears and sensory organs on our computers and on our networks asking them to observe the physical world on our behalf and to manipulate it. The more you connect computers to the physical world the more the issue of interaction becomes important…” (Attributed to Corporate Design Foundation: May 1991). [195]

« CHAPTER 6 »
ULTIMATE LUMINARIES ON MOST ADVANCED INTELLIGENCE AND TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESSION (AS OF 2007). ENSUING TWENTY-FOUR ASSERTIONS:

[1 of 24] “...Some people say that computers can never show true intelligence, whatever that may be. But it seems to me that if very complicated chemical molecules can operate in humans to make them intelligent, then equally complicated electronic circuits can also make computers act in an intelligent way. And if they are intelligent, they can presumably design computers that have even greater complexity and intelligence...” ? By Dr. Stephen Hawking (Lucasian Professor of Mathematics, University of Cambridge).
[2 of 24] “...One consideration that should be taken into account when deciding whether to promote the development of superintelligence is that if superintelligence is feasible, it will likely be developed sooner or later. Therefore, we will probably one day have to take the gamble of superintelligence no matter what. But once in existence, a superintelligence could help us reduce or eliminate other existential risks, such as the risk that advanced nanotechnology will be used by humans in warfare or terrorism, a serious threat to the long-term survival of intelligent life on earth. If we get to superintelligence first, we may avoid this risk from nanotechnology and many others. If, on the other hand, we get nanotechnology first, we will have to face both the risks from nanotechnology and, if these risks are survived, also the risks from superintelligence. The overall risk seems to be minimized by implementing superintelligence, with great care, as soon as possible...” ? By Dr. Nick Bostrom (Director, Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford University).
[3 of 24] “...We have a hard time motivating people to do stuff in the service of abstract nouns like 'liberty,' but 'singularity' is so abstract as to make 'liberty' seem as concrete as 'imminent car-wreck.' The singularity needs to be the mere abstract cherry on the concrete cake: the funny curiosity to consider as the end-point of a bunch of imminent, relevant, concrete changes in our lives that we need to prepare for and prepare the way for...” ? By Cory Doctorow (Science Fiction Author, Boing Boing Co-Editor).
[4 of 24] “...To any thoughtful person, the singularity idea, even if it seems wild, raises a gigantic, swirling cloud of profound and vital questions about humanity and the powerful technologies it is producing. Given this mysterious and rapidly approaching cloud, there can be no doubt that the time has come for the scientific and technological community to seriously try to figure out what is on humanity's collective horizon. Not to do so would be hugely irresponsible...” ? By Dr. Douglas R. Hofstadter (College Professor Of Cognitive and Computer Science, Indiana University, Bloomington).
[5 of 24] “...What, then, is the Singularity? It's a future period during which the pace of technological change will be so rapid, its impact so deep, that human life will be irreversibly transformed. Although neither utopian or dystopian, this epoch will transform the concepts that we rely on to give meaning to our lives, from our business models to the cycle of human life, including death itself. Understanding the Singularity will alter our perspective on the significance of our past and the ramifications for our future. To truly understand it inherently changes one's view of life in general and one's own particular life. I regard someone who understands the Singularity and who has reflected on its implications for his or her own life as a '…singularitarian…'...” ? By Ray Kurzweil (CEO, Kurzweil Technologies).
[6 of 24] “...The Singularity is a frightening prospect for humanity. I assume that we will somehow dodge it or finesse it in reality, and one way to do that is to warn about it early and begin to build in correctives...” ? By Stewart Brand (Founder and Chairman, The Long Now Foundation).
[7 of 24] “...It is clear from my work that to tell a truly compelling story, a machine would need to understand the 'inner lives' of his or her characters. And to do that, it would need not only to think mechanically in the sense of swift calculation (the forte of supercomputers like Deep Blue), it would also need to think experientially in the sense of having subjective or phenomenal awareness. For example, a person can think experientially about a trip to Europe as a kid, remember what it was like to be in Paris on a sunny day with an older brother, smash a drive down a fairway, feel a lover's touch, ski on the edge, or need a good night's sleep. But any such example, I claim, will demand capabilities no machine will ever have. Renowned human storytellers understand this concept. For example, playwright Henrik Ibsen said: ' … I have to have the character in mind through and through, I must penetrate into the last wrinkle of his soul ...' Such a modus operandi is forever closed off to a machine...” ? By Dr. Selmer Bringsjord (Director, Rensselaer AI & Reasoning Laboratory).
[8 of 24] “...There's this stupid myth out there that AI has failed, but AI is everywhere around you every second of the day. People just don't notice it. You've got AI systems in cars, tuning the parameters of the fuel injection systems. When you land in an airplane, your gate gets chosen by an AI scheduling system. Every time you use a piece of Microsoft software, you've got an AI system trying to figure out what you're doing, like writing a letter, and it does a pretty damned good job. Every time you see a movie with computer–generated characters, they're all little AI characters behaving as a group. Every time you play a video game, you're playing against an AI system...” ? By Dr. Rodney Brooks (Director, MIT Computer Science and AI Laboratory, Chief Technical Officer, IROBOT CORPORATION).
[9 of 24] “...If there is a key driving force pushing towards a singularity, it's international competition for power. This ongoing struggle for power and security is why, in my view, attempts to prevent a singularity simply by international fiat are doomed. The potential capabilities of transformative technologies are simply staggering. No nation will risk falling behind its competitors, regardless of treaties or UN resolutions banning intelligent machines or molecular–scale tools. The uncontrolled global transformation these technologies may spark is, in strategic terms, far less of a threat than an opponent having a decided advantage in their development ? a 'singularity gap,' if you will. The 'missile gap' that drove the early days of the nuclear arms race would pale in comparison...” ? By Jamais Cascio (Senior Contributing Editor, WORLDCHANGING).
[10 of 24] “...The world is Organized by embodied beings like us to be coped with by beings like us. The computer would be totally lost in our world. It would have to have in it a model of the world and a model of the body, which AI researchers have tried, but it's certainly hopeless. Without that, the world is just utterly un-graspable by computers .... The truth is that human intelligence can never be replaced with machine intelligence simply because we are not ourselves thinking machines. Each of us has, and uses every day, a power of intuitive intelligence that enables us to understand, to speak, and to cope skillfully with our everyday environment...” ? By Dr. Hubert Dreyfus (Professor of Philosophy, University of California, Berkeley).
[11 of 24] “...If you invent a breakthrough in artificial intelligence, so machines can learn, that is worth 10 Microsofts...” ? By Bill Gates (Chairman and Chief Software Architect, Microsoft Corporation).
[12 of 24] “...There is no good reason to believe that the emergence of the modern human mind is the end state of the evolution of psyche. Indeed, the rub is this: While evolution might take millions of years to generate another psychological sea change as dramatic as the emergence of modern humanity, technology may do the job much more expediently. The Singularity can be expected to induce rapid and dramatic change in the nature of life, mind and experience...” ? By Dr. Ben Goertzel (CEO, Novamente LLC).
[13 of 24] “...It's haughty of us to think we're the end product of evolution. All of us are a part of producing whatever is coming next. We're at an exciting time. We're close to the singularity. Go back to that litany of chemistry leading to single–celled organisms, leading to intelligence. The first step took a billion years, the next step took a hundred million, and so on. We're at a stage where things change on the order of decades, and it seems to be speeding up. Technology has the autocatalytic effect of fast computers, which let us design better and faster computers faster. We're heading toward something which is going to happen very soon – in our lifetimes – and which is fundamentally different from anything that's happened in human history before...” ? By Dr. W. Daniel Hillis (Chairman and Chief Technology Officer, Applied Minds).
[14 of 24] “...The 21st–century technologies — genetics, nanotechnology, and robotics (GNR) – are so powerful that they can spawn whole new classes of accidents and abuses. Most dangerously, for the first time, these accidents and abuses are widely within the reach of individuals or small groups. They will not require large facilities or rare raw materials. Knowledge alone will enable the use of them. Thus we have the possibility not just of weapons of mass destruction but of knowledge–enabled mass destruction (KM.D. ), this destructiveness hugely amplified by the power of self–replication. I think it is no exaggeration to say we are on the cusp of the further perfection of extreme evil, an evil whose possibility spreads well beyond that which weapons of mass destruction bequeathed to the nation–states, on to a surprising and terrible empowerment of extreme individuals...” ? By Bill Joy (Managing Partner, Kleiner, Perkins, Caufields & Byers).
[15 of 24] “...Every cybernetic totalist fantasy relies on artificial intelligence. It might not immediately be apparent why such fantasies are essential to those who have them. If computers are to become smart enough to design their own successors, initiating a process that will lead to God-like omniscience after a number of ever-swifter passages from one generation of computers to the next, someone is going to have to write the software that gets the process going, and humans have given absolutely no evidence of being able to write such software. So the idea is that the computers will somehow become smart on their own and write their own software ... My primary objection to this way of thinking is pragmatic: It results in the creation of poor-quality real-world software in the present. Cybernetic totalists live with their heads in the future and are willing to accept obvious flaws in present software in support of a fantasy world that might never appear ... The whole enterprise of artificial intelligence is based on an intellectual mistake, and continues to expensively turn out poorly designed software as it is remarketed under a new name for every new generation of programmers...” ? By Jaron Lanier (Computer Scientist, Composer, Visual Artist, and Author).
[16 of 24] “ ... Two quite detailed scenarios have emerged, one the Moravec/Kurzweil scenario, which we might call the 'Out to Pasture in the Elysian Fields,' that foresees machines as intelligent as humans, maybe more so, in 50 years and on the whole, a good thing. This leads to questions both Moravec and Kurzweil, to their credit, raise about whether those machines will take over for us (or from us), the basis of the second scenario, Bill Joy's quite opposite and dark vision, which posits the same improvement in machine intelligence, but with a horrifying outcome, the '…NanoGenRoboNightmare ... ' Some believers in the Elysian fields scenario have been arguing about 'the singularity,' borrowed from science fiction writer Vernor Vinge, the moment AI becomes powerful and ubiquitous enough so that all of the rules change and there's no going back. [...] I don't consider either of these scenarios implausible...” Pamela McCorduck (Author of Machines Who Think).
[17 of 24] “...We need to do an unlikely thing: we need to survey the world we now inhabit and proclaim it good. Good enough. Not in every detail; there are a thousand improvements, technological and cultural, that we can and should still make. But good enough in its outlines, in its essentials. We need to decide that we live, most of us in the West, long enough. We need to declare that, in the West, where few of us work ourselves to the bone, we have ease enough. In societies where most of us need storage lockers more than we need nanotech miracle boxes, we need to declare that we have enough stuff. Enough intelligence. Enough capability. Enough...” ? By Bill McKibben (Author, Enough: Staying Human In An Engineered Age.)
[18 of 24] “...Only a small community has concentrated on general intelligence. No one has tried to make a thinking machine and then teach it chess — or the very sophisticated oriental board game Go. [...] The bottom line is that we really haven't progressed too far toward a truly intelligent machine. We have collections of dumb specialists in small domains; the true majesty of general intelligence still awaits our attack. [...] We have got to get back to the deepest questions of AI and general intelligence and quit wasting time on little projects that don't contribute to the main goal...” ? By Dr. Marvin Minsky (Toshiba Professor, Media Arts and Sciences, MIT).
[19 of 24] “...It may seem rash to expect fully intelligent machines in a few decades, when the computers have barely matched insect mentality in a half–century of development. Indeed, for that reason, many long–time artificial intelligence researchers scoff at the suggestion, and offer a few centuries as a more believable period. But there are very good reasons why things will go much faster in the next fifty years than they have in the last fifty... Since 1990, the power available to individual AI and robotics programs has doubled yearly, to 30 MIPS (machine instructions per second) by 1994 and 500 MIPS by 1998. Seeds long ago alleged barren are suddenly sprouting. Machines read text, recognize speech, even translate languages. Robots drive cross–country, crawl across Mars, and trundle down office corridors. In 1996 a theorem–proving program called EQP running five weeks on a 50 MIPS computer at Argonne National Laboratory found a proof of a Boolean algebra conjecture by Herbert Robbins that had eluded mathematicians for sixty years. And it is still only Spring. Wait until Summer...” ? By Dr. Hans Moravec (Chief Scientist, Seegrid Corporation).
[20 of 24] “...In the end, this search for ways to enhance ourselves is a natural part of being human. The urge to transform ourselves has been a force in history as far back as we can see. It's been selected for by millions of years of evolution. It's wired deep in our genes — a natural outgrowth of our human intelligence, curiosity, and drive. To turn our backs on this power would be to turn our backs on our true nature. Embracing our quest to understand and improve on ourselves doesn't call into question our humanity — it reaffirms it...” ? By Ramez Naam (Author of More Than Human: Embracing The Promise of Biological Enhancement, Software Developer, Microsoft).
[21 of 24] “...I want to focus on a different aspect of Ken MacLeod's 'Rapture of the Nerds' comment, because I actually think it cuts both ways. Yes, it's possible to draw parallels between the Christian idea of The Rapture — and, even more generally, between religious ideas of transcendence generally — and the notion that, once human technology passes a certain threshold, roughly that described by Vinge and other singularity enthusiasts, human beings will potentially enjoy the kind of powers and pleasures traditionally assigned to gods or beings in heaven: Limitless lifespans, if not immortality, superhuman powers, virtually limitless wealth, fleshly pleasures on demand, etc. .... These do sound like the sorts of things that religions have promised their followers throughout human history. That leads some who invoke MacLeod's comment to contend that because singularity enthusiasts hope for the same kinds of things that religious believers have hoped for, singularity enthusiasts are merely adherents to a new sort of religion, the religion of science ... But as Isaac Asimov has noted, the religion of science is distinguished by one chief characteristic: 'that it works.' I express no opinion on whether science will actually deliver on these hopes. But I note that people once looked to supernatural sources for such now-mundane things as cures for baldness or impotence, only to find those desires satisfied, instead, by modern pharmacology. Yet that hardly makes those who place their faith in pharmacology members of a religion — or, if it does, it makes them members of a religion that is distinguishable from those dependent on the supernatural...” ? By Glenn Harland Reynolds (Professor of Law, University of Tennessee)
[22 of 24] “…'…Could a machine think?...' My own view is that only a machine could think, and indeed only very special kinds of machines, namely brains and machines that had the same causal powers as brains. And that is the main reason strong AI has had little to tell us about thinking, since it has nothing to tell us about machines. By its own definition, it is about programs, and programs are not machines. Whatever else intentionality is, it is a biological phenomenon, and it is as likely to be as causally dependent on the specific biochemistry of its origins as lactation, photosynthesis, or any other biological phenomena. No one would suppose that we could produce milk and sugar by running a computer simulation of the formal sequences in lactation and photosynthesis, but where the mind is concerned many people are willing to believe in such a miracle because of a deep and abiding dualism: the mind they suppose is a matter of formal processes and is independent of quite specific material causes in the way that milk and sugar are not.....” ? By Dr. John Searle (Slusser Professor of Philosophy, University of California, Berkeley).
[23 of 24] “...Before the invention of writing, almost every insight was happening for the first time (at least to the knowledge of the small groups of humans involved). When you are at the beginning, everything is new. In our era, almost everything we do in the arts is done with awareness of what has been done before. In the early post–human era, things will be new again because anything that requires greater than human ability has not already been done by Homer or da Vinci or Shakespeare...” ? By Dr. Vernor Vinge (Mathematician, Computer Scientists, and Science Fiction Author).
[24 of 24] “...I certainly think that humans are not the limit of evolutionary complexity. There may indeed be post–human entities, either organic or silicon–based, which can in some respects surpass what a human can do. I think it would be rather surprising if our mental capacities were matched to understanding all the keys levels of reality. The chimpanzees certainly aren't, so why should ours be either? So there may be levels that will have to await some post-human emergence...” ? By Sir Martin Rees (Professor of Cosmology and Astrophysics, Trinity College). [200]

« CHAPTER 6 »
THE TOP TRENDS FOR 2010 BY SAN FRANCISCO FUTURIST DR. JAMES CANTON, PH.D.

Beginning of literal citation of Dr. Canton’s forecast:

From The Global Futures Forecast (a think tank in San Francisco, California, also at www.FutureGuru.com) its CEO, James Canton, sent me “The Top Trends for 2010.” I will quote them literally with you for your independent perusal. Subsequently, only you can come up with your own conclusions.

1. Future Positive— This trend perhaps more so then any other captures the sentiment of most people worldwide. This is the trend towards wanting the near future to be again a hopeful one, a future we can look forward to. We want a positive renewal of life. Even business and government: it is time to again look to the future envision opportunity, value and a sense that things are improving.

2. The Existential Consumer— The consumer's worldview, their sense of meaning, confidence and sense of self has been trampled on as jobs and the economic crises have strained normalized relationships between governments, business and individuals.

3. Business as Unusual— Bold business is coming back. Aggressive moves, mergers and acquisitions, new ideas, fresh innovations will emerge this year. There is a re-thinking going on in business. What will emerge this year will not be “business as usual”.

4. Design for a Better World— This trend has been building for some time now and as the global economic recovery gets into full swing this year, some jobs come back, cash flows, business start to grow there will emerge a desire to make the world better. Giving back to others, social responsibility will emerge as a key trend this year.

5. Energy X— There is not enough energy in any form to sustain global growth by 2030. We need a massive global energy plan to meet the needs of the future or the lights may go out. The Energy X trend says that a radical new energy breakthrough may emerge this year to change the energy equation in new ways. Plentiful and cheap: it could be fusion, nanotech, biomass, moon methane mining, solar satellite arrays-some radical Energy X is coming.

6. Asia Self-Reliance — Asia will find unique growth opportunities from inside their economies. Self-Sustainable Asian economies will be an uptrend in 2010. This will create more balanced trade for the future with the West. Internal economies, especially India and China, will pick up the growth slack from the laggard Western economies for a time. GDP's at 8 to 9% will make Asian markets sizzle this year again.

7. Personalized Medicine— Want to know how to live forever? How about just another healthy 50 years? Personalized medicine will start, as the tools to understand individual's disease and health profiles will begin to emerge.

8. The Neuro-Society— This year something quite fantastic will emerge. New research in how the brain works, neuroscience will have an impact on society in comprehensive ways. This could be used for good to improve learning and for massively controlling minds. Not good.

Brain centers for determining intention, desire, belief, language, depression, language even if or when a person is telling the truth or not may be possible.

9. Hungry Planet— Can we feed 8 billion by 2045? Many food experts are worried and they should be. The carrying capacity of the planet required to feed another two billion people will demand a planetary level of cooperation never seen in the history of the world. Food security and increasing quality of life for eight billion will require global planning and logistics that has not yet begun.

10. Products That Think — From products with embedded computer chips, to GPS everywhere, to smart phones and autos that know where you are and where your going to be-networks of thinking products are coming. Every product will have its own Internet address. Over ten billion chips inside of every type of product will create a hidden culture of thinking products this year.

11. Social Capitalism Emerges— A new paradigm is emerging that will try to remake capitalism into a populist or social welfare tool rather then a personal and social wealth tool. It will fail. Unbridled taxation and government regulation under the guise of social good will kill the incentives like competition, new innovations and free enterprise we need to foster authentic economic growth.

12. Workforce Talent War— Organizations rely on many things to grow but one factor remains of the highest value, talent. With increased complexity, competition and demands for performance facing business the search for talent will be keen this year. There are simply not enough talented individuals available to meet the growing demands of global organizations, coming from both the private and public sectors. Get ready for the talent wars.

13. Jobs and the Innovation Economy— Jobs especially in the US will return slowly and many jobs are gone forever. Economic growth creates jobs, innovation jobs from green tech to health care and biotech will create prosperity, again. Real job creation will not come from government but the private sector stepping up the innovation game.

14. Rogues Among Us — The rise of sophisticated rogues-criminal and terrorist organizations that prey on society will expand in 2010. From pirates in Somalia to drug trafficking in Afghanistan, to fundamentalist terrorists: The inevitable is occurring; rogue organizations are destabilizing the world's security order increasing chaos and risk.

15. Green Tech— It’s time to transcend the issue about how much of climate change is made by humans or caused by nature. We need to focus on the real end game, which is fixing what we can now and preparing for the future. This year we must focus on new thinking: green tech such as geo-engineering the planet using science to protect the planet, seed the climate, pollution controls, new alternative energy, making carbon capture work, carbon reductions and aggressively take charge of the climate crisis.

16. Internet Everywhere— Advanced technologies like super computers, the mobility and artificial intelligence are making the Internet smarter and fundamental to life, work and culture. From online education, health care, voting, energy monitoring, media and entertainment to banking-the Internet will be everywhere this year.

17. Tomorrow's Markets— Business faces an opportunity with such velocity that it could accelerate never-before-seen levels of commerce and prosperity: the emerging middle class in the developing world. There are over 22 megacities will likely grow to 20 million per megacity before 2030.

18. Robots R Us— The next revolution in autonomous robots is coming fast. From drones that fly, to robot soldiers, to industrial workers to house cleaners-the robots are coming.

19. Singularity Watch— How will we feed 8 billion? How will we manage the next 200 mega-cities Can we speed up the invention of alternative energy? How can we inspire and educate the next generation? The Singularity, the use of advanced science and technology to cope with planetary social challenges that humanity must address in the future is coming.

20. Reinventing Education — This year education should get a make-over. Too much of education is based on yesterday not tomorrow. Education needs to be blown up and changed to keep in step with tomorrow's jobs, challenges and opportunities. More science, technology and global business savvy. We need to Reinvent Education to make it more relevant, modern and future-ready.

End of literal citation of Dr. Canton’s forecast.

More information at:
The Global Futures Forecast: The Top Trends for 2010
Dr. James Canton, CEO Institute for Global Futures
www.FutureGuru.com
http://www.globalfuturist.com/

« CHAPTER 6 »
FOURTEEN FUTURE TRENDS FOR BUSINESS IN 2009 AND BEYOND BY THOMAS FREY, SENIOR FUTURIST AT THE DAVINCI INSTITUTE

Beginning of quotation:

“…As I started pulling my notes together for 2009 trends, I instantly became overwhelmed by the sheer volume of changes currently in the works. The number of moving parts seems to exceed the number of stationary parts. All of our markets, systems, and technologies have become incredibly fluid, and much like a floating vessel, we are heading to parts unknown .... To a futurist, the chaotic nature of interconnecting trends and the extreme possibilities appear at times like a spinning compass needle. The disarray that we find ourselves in cries out for answers – some glimpse of the uncharted waters that lie beyond the horizon. So I’ll give it my best shot .... Different aspects of our society are moving at radically different paces. Businesses that are flying executives around the world, marshaling resources to capitalize on new opportunities, and working teams 24-7 to meet deadlines, face a rude awakening when they have to interface with a government agency operating at a pace that makes a turtle yawn .... In his recent book Revolutionary Wealth, Futurist Alvin Toffler describes how the desynchronization of society has created more and more speed bumps along the fast lane, and with a nearly unlimited set of options for circumventing anything that slows them down, systems are becoming marginalized at a record pace .... While the radical pace differential is not just between government and business, it is precisely this desynchronized relationship that is driving the disruptive changes we’re seeing around us, the most radical of which are happening on a governing level .... Much like laminar airflow coursing over the fabrics of society, we are first seeing a ‘peeling apart’ of business, industry, and social structures. This ‘peeling apart’ is creating a number of vacuum spaces between the rising gaps in the social structure. While disruptive on one level, these vacuum spaces also create an array of new opportunities for business and industry .... The stage is set for myriad transitions to begin to shape an era that has not only become unrecognizable to generations past, but implausible as well .... Many of the global systems we currently have in place are on the verge of breaking. Most global systems have evolved out of a patchwork of kluged-together national systems, and have not been designed to properly manage the speed, volume, and excessive nature of today’s society. We are in need of a complete systems overhaul, transitioning us from national systems to global systems .... Because we have had little ability to experiment with new systems in the past, we will be taking blind shots in the dark, best-guessing our way forward. National systems will fight to survive, but will flounder because of complexity overload. It has become all too apparent: If we don’t change our systems, our systems will change us .... Look for major failures to occur in most systems over the coming years including our tax systems, justice systems, social security, monetary systems, and much more. On the flip side, also pay close attention to the opportunities these failures will create .... As a general rule, 7 percent of the recently jobless will attempt to start their own businesses. While those who create our next breakaway success story will be but a tiny fraction of this phenomenon, we will see a strong entrepreneurial push and a realignment of the systems supporting entrepreneurs .... With financial markets being pinched, the most popular form of startup will the Empire of One, one-person businesses with far reaching influence. Technology is driving a trend of placing unprecedented power and capability into the hands of the individual. That trend coupled with skyrocketing costs of employment make this a perfect environment for a no-employee business to thrive .... Look for rapid growth of support structures, management systems, and outsourcing options. Even colleges and traditional business schools will see this emerging trend and start to teach courses on one-person entrepreneurship .... The movie industry has long used a project-based business model where talent swarms and forms around specific projects. Directors, cameramen, lighting specialists, scriptwriters, and makeup artists all form around the production of a movie or television show. Once the project is complete, workers swarm and form around another project .... Business colonies will emerge as next generation, industry specific incubators with an economic development component added in. Colonies, such as nanotech colonies, gamer colonies, and alternative health colonies, will be formed in cities to serve as an industry focal point and breeding ground for startup businesses. Owing to their nature, colonies will be both virtual and physical, but people living and working in close proximity to the colony will derive the most benefit .... Colonies will form around shared resources. Equipment that is too expensive for one person to own will be owned by the colony for all to share. Colonies will vary in size and structure as communities begin to experiment with the essential ingredients needed to make it successful .... In September, Google and General Electric CEOs Eric Schmidt and Jeffrey Immelt proposed the idea of creating a “smart” electric power grid to promote clean energy. Their plan is to create a grid that uses electricity more efficiently and allow more power generation from cleaner sources .... However, both concur that public policy is a major impediment to building a 21st century electricity system and the benefits of renewable electricity cannot be fully realized without updating US power transmission lines into a “smart grid” that lets people track and control what types of power they use as well as when they use it .... Yes, this may be a self-serving play with GE positioning itself to receive many of the major construction contracts and Google could profit as the designer of the overall operating system. The clout of these corporate giants along with stimulus money flowing toward key infrastructure improvements could push this proposal to center stage in the coming year… The shift to cloud computing will dominate much of the tech world with data centers springing to life wherever cheap energy can be found. The prospects of being able to plug into your own workspace on portable devices wherever you happen to be, and tap into cloud-based applications instead of purchasing the clunky and expensive software packages is very appealing. But for the movement to reach full steam, it will take years to complete and will be fraught with problems .... For people working in the industry, the cloud computing movement is already well underway. From a consumer standpoint we’ve been using many types of “cloud” applications for years. Google apps are a completely acceptable replacement for MS Office for the average user. Much of today’s email is already transacted through the cloud via IMAP or Gmail or Hotmail. And things like .Mac or Dropbox are quite usable for people needing a cloud based hard drive .... The term “cloud computing,” however, has only recently gained traction among business communities with things like Amazon’s Web Services, Google’s App Engine, etc .... Technical hurdles still remain when moving a desktop app up to the cloud, such as databases requiring a different architecture in the cloud. This will make the conversion of traditional-apps to cloud-apps somewhat painful .... However, cloud computing is destined to become a steamroller movement forcing many to alter the way they do business. Look for the smart power grid to play a major role in this development .... As with the life cycle of any cause, the Green Movement has passed its prime. The weight of any overarching philosophy becomes unwieldy over time, so as a result, many of the movement’s core tenets will break into niche groups that will soon supersede the rapidly diffusing Green Movement .... Also reaching the end of its useful life is the overly vague concept of Sustainability. To be sustainable, the Earth’s resources must be used at a rate at which they can be replenished. While we all want to preserve the beauty of nature, the movement’s current approach remains an ineffective method for curbing excessive consumption, especially when regional and national economies are at stake .... As a result, both the Green Movement and Sustainability will splinter into more manageable segments and transition to more innovation-based approaches. Look for several new innovation prizes to be created as a way to draw attention to specific issues .... Even though big oil has taken a beating in the press, and an army of innovators are working overtime to develop alternatives, oil remains our most important energy source, the lifeblood of the American economy .... However, the push for alternative energy has only begun. Over the coming years, alternative fuels will expand exponentially, moving into additional areas beyond energy production, into energy transmission and energy storage. Legislators will attempt to legislate change and innovators will attempt to innovate change .... In the area of production, the familiar alternatives of wind, solar, biofuels, geothermal, and hydrogen will continue to jockey for position. But while each is battling for market share, Hyperion’s home nuclear reactor concept could emerge quickly from underdog status to give a fresh new face to nuclear power .... In the area of power transmission, the smart electric power grid will dominate early discussions. But look for wireless power concepts to build momentum as the nation wearies of its unsightly transmission lines, regardless of how smart they are .... Energy storage, on the large city and regional scale, is surprisingly absent from our playbook. State of the art science involves pumping water to a higher altitude lake during off-peak times and letting it drain down through hydroelectric generators during peak times. Look for a new surge of innovation to occur in this area over the coming years .... The current economic turmoil has given us strong signals that our current debt load has become unmanageable. The stimulus packages seem to indicate a general effort to inflate our way out of this problem, making past debt relatively small in comparison to the value of future money .... Individual countries are tightly interwoven with their financial institutions and many are now taking extraordinary measures to shore up their currencies and teetering banking systems. In doing so, several are now on the brink of a national bankruptcy. Since we’ve had little experience dealing with national bankruptcies, we have a poor understanding of the global ramifications. But rest assured, no country wants to find themselves in this position and will take extreme actions to prevent it from happening .... As a result, many large multinational financial companies will begin to shift some of their riskier divisions or portfolios into separate companies, and base these companies in small countries to both sever responsibility and transfer blame. Portfolios will be “sold” to newly created companies, and some may go so far as to create these companies in newly minted nation states. In many cases, this approach will be mandated by the host country as a measure to protect its own people .... The US government, as in most countries, has been designed to react in a slow and thoughtful manner. Many governmental agencies have built-in processes and planned delays to slow the rate of change. But widespread governmental foot dragging will soon end .... Unlike the ‘turn-out-the-lights-our-office-is-now-closed’ approach to running agencies, staffers and department heads will be placed “on call” with teams working 24/7 schedules as government syncs to the needs of business and other global demands .... Not only will we see a host of new early warning systems with real-time tracking of economic indicators, but virtually every level of government is being primed for a top-to-bottom ‘efficiency overhaul’. Huge opportunities await the companies that can provide the right solutions here .... A sufficient jolt from the national defibrillator on our aging society’s heart might get us going again, but we run a risk approaching 80 percent for an economic meltdown. We won’t know the actual shape and form of the collapse until it is already upon us .... The word “collapse” has some very ominous overtones associated with it, but think more in terms of it being a “managed collapse.” The world doesn’t end. Rather, it changes abruptly .... One of the more extreme scenarios has a number of smaller countries declaring insolvency. With the interconnected nature of our global society, an accelerating domino effect could collapse nearly every economy in the world in a matter of weeks as nations hit the panic button .... In this scenario, the result will be a two-to-four week shutdown of all banks and monetary systems as global leaders convene an emergency session and create a plan for emerging from the disaster – uncharted territory indeed .... Unlike economic disasters of the past, our current global infrastructure demands a far more rigorous level of attention and involvement. Without a fluid monetary system in place to keep all of the balls in motion, we invariably create treacherous stumbling blocks that will force change with or without our blessing .... After the stimulus money is spent, perhaps the most daunting task will be to establish a new standard for what it is to be “normal” again. Investors are confused by a directionless Dow Jones that swings erratically 1,000 points from day to day. Regaining a sense of value in a post-stimulus economy will be challenging .... Over the years, we have seen a growing number of companies add ‘infraction fees’ to the bills we receive as consumers. These range from late payment fees, to over-limit fees, to inactivity fees. Because of this constant barrage of fee assessments, consumers have become very wary, and frankly, tired of living under these conditions. When government turns a blind-eye to corporate abuse, it destroys consumer confidence and destroys system confidence. Over time it erodes our ability to discern right from wrong, and our capacity for making good decisions. Freedom means little when we feel like victims .... Few tears are shed when a bank collapses because most people on the street see it as justice for a corrupt institution. Cannibalized bank accounts leave a lingering, long term animosity from people who number in the millions .... The notion that companies have free rein to penalize their customers for bad behavior is consistent in a world that rewards a widespread breach of ethics and principles .... Until recently, the phrase ‘bank on it’ was a term that translated to an assumed confidence in institutions. That phrase is in danger of extinction. A return to normalcy is not possible without meaningful change, change that is reassuring to shaken investors and depositors. Standards of practice need to reflect attention to re-establishing integrity and ethics. Perhaps what is needed is a standard bill of rights for people doing business in the new economy .... In the famous words used by John F. Kennedy at Rice University, ‘We choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard, because that goal will serve to organize and measure the best of our energies and skills, because that challenge is one that we are willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postpone, and one which we intend to win.’ .... Curing the failing systems that are crumbling around us gives us a far different motivation. We are doing it because we have to. And yes, it will be very hard .... We’re not going to find a way out of this mess if the industry captains and political leaders do not pay attention to the simple chore of engendering trust. How much can it really cost someone who is pulling down millions to forgo a bonus? They likely won’t lose a house or a job .... Are we up to the task? Do we have the talent in place to lead us through the coming minefields? Only time will tell .... We now have a colossal need for global system architects, a job title reserved for the anointed few; people with unparalleled vision, wisdom, and determination .... BUT UNLIKE MANY OF THE DOOM AND GLOOM FORECASTERS, I SEE THE COMING TURMOIL AS A GOLDEN AGE OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE WORLD. WE WILL HAVE THE CHANCE TO EXPERIMENT WITH NEW SYSTEMS THAT IN THE PAST WOULD HAVE NEVER BEEN POSSIBLE .... ULTIMATELY, WE HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO EMERGE AS A FAR BETTER WORLD...” [151]

End of quotation.

« CHAPTER 6 »
SIX PROFOUND SHIFTS BY DR. SHOSTAK

In addressing some major shifts with the aiming sight underpinned in the 2005 context, Dr. Arthur B. Shostak, Ph.D. argues:

“…There will be shifts in the pattern of world debtor and creditor countries. Japan’s economic downturn, the ever-growing U.S. debt, and Germany’s chronic unemployment problems are harbingers of things to come .... The multinational corporation will be the world’s dominant business form .... The New Age movement, secular humanism, and virtual communities built on electronics networking are early harbingers [of most profound societal changes] .... Biomimetic materials and products that imitate natural biological materials will be common .... The asteroid watch will become a recognized institution. Among its most notable achievements will be several trial runs at altering an asteroid’s path before it intersects Earth’s orbit .... Restoration of aquifers (under water bodies) will be a standard technology...” [160]

« CHAPTER 6 »
THE FUTURE ENVISIONED BY A RESEARCH PHYSICIST AND SCIENTIST!

Dr. Michio Kaku, Ph.D. speaks:

“…A book with the proper scope, depth, and accuracy necessary to summarize the exciting and fast-paced progress of science could not be written without the insights and wisdom of the scientists who are making the future possible .... Of course, no one person can invent the future. There is simply too much accumulated knowledge, there are too many possibilities and too many specializations. In fact, most predictions of the future have floundered because they have reflected the eccentric, often narrow viewpoint of a single individual .... Scientists expect some predictions to come about by the year 2020; others will not materialize until much later ? from 2050 to the year 2100. As a result, not all predictions are created equal ? some are more forward-looking and necessarily more speculative than others. The time frames I’ve identified in the book, of course, are to be taken only as guidelines, to give readers a sense of when certain trends and technologies can be expected to emerge .... But the few wondrous shells and pebbles picked up by Newton and other scientists on the seashore helped to trigger a marvelous chain of events. A profound transformation occurred in human society. With Newton’s mechanics came powerful machines, and eventually the steam engine, the motive force which reshaped the world by overturning agrarian society, spawning factories and stimulating commerce, unleashing the industrial revolution, and opening up the entire continents with the railroad .... By the nineteenth century, a period of intense scientific discovery was well underway. Remarkable advances in science and medicine helped to lift people out of wretched poverty and ignorance, enrich their lives, empower them with knowledge, open their eyes to new worlds, and eventually unleash complex [driving] forces which would topple the feudal dynasties, fiefdoms, and empires of Europe .... By the end of the twentieth century, science had reached the end of an era, unlocking the secrets of the atom, unraveling the molecule of life, and creating the electronic computer. With these three fundamental discoveries, triggered by the quantum revolution, the DNA revolution, and the computer revolution, the basic laws of matter, life, and computation were, in the main, finally solved .... That epic phase of science is now drawing to a close; one era is ending and another is only beginning .... The next era of science promises to be an even deeper, more thoroughgoing, more penetrating one than the last .... Clearly, we are on the threshold of yet another revolution. HUMAN KNOWLEDGE IS DOUBLING EVERY TEN YEARS [AS PER THE 1998 STANDARDS]. In the past decade, more scientific knowledge has been created than in all of human history. COMPUTER POWER IS DOUBLING EVERY EIGHTEEN MONTHS. THE INTERNET IS DOUBLING EVERY YEAR. THE NUMBER OF DNA SEQUENCES WE CAN ANALYZE IS DOUBLING EVERY TWO YEARS. Almost daily, the headlines herald new advances in computers, telecommunications, biotechnology, and space exploration. In the wake of this technological upheaval, entire industries and lifestyles are being overturned, only to give rise to entirely new ones. But these rapid, bewildering changes are not just quantitative. They mark the birth pangs of a new era .... Today, we are again like children walking on the seashore. But the ocean that Newton knew as a boy has largely disappeared. Before us lies a new ocean, the ocean of endless scientific possibilities and applications, giving us the potential for the first time to manipulate and mold these forces of Nature to our wishes .... For most of human history, we could only watch, like bystanders, the beautiful dance of Nature. But today, we are on the cusp of an epoch-making transition, from being passive observers of Nature to being active choreographers of Nature. It is this tenet that forms the central message … The era now unfolding makes this one of the most exciting times to be alive, allowing us to reap the fruits of the last 2,000 years of science. The Age of Discovery in science is coming to a close, opening up an Age of Mastery .... What will the future look like? Science fiction writers have sometimes made preposterous predictions about the decades ahead, from vacationing on Mars to banishing all diseases. And even in the popular press, all too often an eccentric social critic’s individual prejudices are substituted for the consensus within the scientific community. (In 1996, for example, The New York Times Magazine devoted an entire issue to life in the next 100 years. Journalists, sociologists, writers, fashion designers, artists, and philosophers all submitted their thoughts. Remarkably, not a single scientist was consulted) .... The point here is that predictions about the future made by professional scientists tend to be based much more substantially on the realities of scientific knowledge than those made by social critics, or even those by scientists of the past whose predictions were made before the fundamental scientific laws were completely known .... (One is reminded of the prediction made by Admiral William Leahy to President Truman in 1945: ‘That is the biggest fool thing we have ever done … The [atomic] bomb will never go off, and I will speak as an expert in explosives.’ The admiral, like many ‘futurist’ today, was substituting his own prejudices for the consensus of physicists working on the bomb.) .... As a research physicist, I believe that physicists have been particularly successful at predicting the broad outlines of the future. Professionally, I work in one of the most fundamental areas of physics, the quest to complete Einstein’s dream of a ‘theory of everything.’ As a result, I am constantly reminded of the ways in which quantum physics touches many of the key discoveries that shaped the twentieth century .... In the past, the track record of physicists has been formidable: we have been intimately involved with introducing a host of pivotal inventions (TV, radio, radar, X-rays, the transistor, the computer, the laser, the atomic bomb), decoding the DNA molecule, opening new dimensions in probing the body with PET, MRI, and CAT scans, and even designing the Internet and the World Wide Web. Physicists are by no means seers who can foretell the future (and we certainly haven’t been spared our share of silly predictions!). Nonetheless, it is true that some of the shrewd observations and penetrating insights of leading physicists of leading physicists in the history of science have opened up entirely new fields .... There undoubtedly will be some astonishing surprises, twits of fate, and embarrassing gaps in this vision of the future: I will almost inevitably overlook some important inventions and discoveries of the twenty-first century. But by focusing on the interrelations between the three great scientific revolutions, and by consulting with the scientists who are actively bringing about this revolution and examining their discoveries, it is my hope that we can see the direction of science in the future with considerable insight and accuracy .... Over the past ten years, while working on this book, I have had the rare privilege of interviewing over 150 scientists, including a good many Nobel Laureates .... These are the scientists who are tirelessly working in the trenches, who are laying the foundations of the twenty-first century, many of whom are opening up new avenues and vistas for scientific discoveries. In these interviews, as well as through my own work and research, I was able to go back over the vast panorama of science laid out before me and draw from a wide variety of expertise and knowledge. These scientists have graciously opened their offices and their laboratories and shared their most intimate scientific ideas with me … I’ve tried to return the favor by capturing the raw excitement and vitality of their scientific discoveries, for it is essential to instill the romance and excitement of science in the general public, especially the young, if democracy is to remain vibrant and resonating force in an increasingly technological and bewildering world .... The fact is that there is a rough consensus emerging among those engaged in research about how the future will evolve. Because the laws behind the quantum theory, computers, and molecular biology are now well established, it is possible for scientists to generally predict the path of scientific progress in the future. This is the central reason why the predictions made here, I feel, are more accurate than those of the past .... These three elements [Matter, Life, The Mind] form the pillars of modern science. Historians will most likely record that the crowning of twentieth-century science was unraveling the basic components underlying these three pillars, culminating in the splitting of the nucleus of the atom, the decoding of the nucleus of the cell, and the development of the electronic computer. With our basic understanding of matter and life largely complete, we are witnessing the close of one of the great chapters in the history of science. (This does not mean that all the laws of these three pillars are completely known, only the most fundamental. For example, although the laws of electronic computers are well known, only some of the basic laws of artificial intelligence and the brain are known.) .... The first of these twentieth-century revolution was the quantum revolution, the most fundamental of all. It was the quantum revolution that later helped to spawn the two other great scientific revolutions, the biomolecular revolution and the computer revolution .... Since time immemorial, people have speculated what the world was made of. The Greeks thought that the universe was made of four elements: water, air, earth and fire. The philosopher Democritus believed that even these could be broken down into smaller units, which he called ‘atoms.’ But attempts to explain how atoms create the vast, wondrous diversity of matter we see in Nature always faltered. Even Newton, who discovered the cosmic laws which guided the motion of planets and moons, was at a loss to explain the bewildering nature of matter .... All this changed in 1925 with the birth of the quantum theory, which has unleashed a thundering tidal wave of scientific discovery that continues to surge unabated to this day. The quantum revolution has now given us an almost complete description of matter, allowing us to describe the seemingly infinite multiplicity of matter we see arrayed around us in terms of a handful of particles, in the same way that a richly decorated tapestry is woven from a few colored strands .... The quantum theory, created by Erwin Schrödinger, Werner Heisenber, and many others, reduced the mystery of matter to a few postulates. First, that energy is not continuous, as the ancients thought, but occurs in discrete bundles, called ‘quanta.’ (The photon, for example, is a quantum or packet of light.) Second, that subatomic particles have both particle and wavelike qualities, obeying a well-defined equation, the celebrated Schrödinger wave equation, which determines the probability that certain events occur. With this equation, we can mathematically predict the properties of a wide variety of substances before creating them in the laboratory. The culmination of the quantum theory is the Standard Model, which can predict the properties of everything from tiny sub-atomic quarks to giant supernovas in outer space .... In the twentieth century, the quantum theory has given us the ability to understand the matter we see around us. In the next century, the quantum revolution may open the door to the next step: the ability to manipulate and choreograph new forms of matter, almost at will .... In the past, computers were mathematical curiosities; they were supremely clumsy, messy contraptions, consisting of a complex mass of gears, levers, and cogs. During World War II, mechanical computers were replaced by vacuum tubes, but they were also monstrous in size, filling up entire rooms with racks of thousands of vacuum tubes .... The turning point came in 1948, when scientists at Bell Laboratories discovered the transistor, which made possible the modern computer. A decade after that, the laser was discovered, which is essential to the Internet and the information highway. Both are quantum mechanical devices .... In the quantum theory, electricity can be understood as the movement of electrons, just as droplets of water can make a river. But one of the surprises of the quantum theory is that there are ‘bubbles’ or ‘holes’ in the current, corresponding to vacancies in electron states, which act as if they are electrons with positive charge. The motion of these currents of both holes and electrons with positive charge. The motion of these currents of both holes and electrons allows transistors to amplify tiny electrical signals, which forms the basis of modern electronics .... Today, tens of millions of transistors can be crammed into an area the size of a fingernail. In the future, our lifestyles will be irrevocably changed when microchips become so plentiful that intelligent systems are dispersed by the millions into all parts of our environment .... In the past, we could only marvel at the precious phenomenon called intelligence; in the future, we will be able to manipulate it according to our wishes .... Historically, many biologists were influenced by the theory of ‘vitalism’ ? i.e., that a mysterious ‘life force’ or substance animated living things. This view was challenged when Schrödinger, in his 1944 book What is Life?, dared to claim that life could be explained by a ‘genetic code’ written on the molecules within a cell. It was a bold idea: that the secret of life could be explained by using the quantum theory .... James Watson and Francis Crick, inspired by the Schrödinger’s book, eventually proved his conjecture by using X-ray crystallography. By analyzing the pattern of X-rays scattered off a DNA molecule, they were able to reconstruct the detailed atomic structure of DNA and identify its double-helical nature. Since the quantum theory also gives us the precise bonding angles and bonding strength between atoms, it enables us to determine the position of practically all the individual molecules in the genetic code of a complex virus like HIV .... These techniques of molecular biology will allow us to read the genetic code of life as we would read a book. Already, the complete DNA code of several living organisms, like viruses, single-cell bacteria, and yeast, have been completely decoded, molecule for molecule .... The complete human genome will be decoded by the year 2005, giving us an ‘owner’s manual’ for a human being. This will set the stage for twenty-first century science and medicine. Instead of watching the dance of life, the biomolecular revolution will ultimately give us the nearly god-like ability to manipulate life almost at will .... Some commentators, witnessing these historic advances in science over the past century, have claimed that we are seeing the demise of the scientific enterprise. John Horgan, in his book The End of Science, writes: ‘If one believes in science, one must accept the possibility ? even the probability ? that the great era of scientific discovery is over .... Further research may yield no more great revelations or revolutions, but only incremental, diminishing returns.’ .... In one limited sense, Horgan is right. Modern science has no doubt uncovered the fundamental laws underlying most of the disciplines of science: the quantum theory of matter, Einstein’s theory of space-time, the Big Bang theory of cosmology, the Darwinian theory of evolution, and the molecular basis of DNA and life. Despite some notable exceptions (e.g., determining the nature of consciousness and proving that superstring theory, my particular field of specialization, is the fable unified field theory), the ‘great ideas’ of science, for the most part, have probably been found .... Likewise, the era of reductionism ? i.e., reducing everything to its smallest components ? is coming to a close. Reductionism has been spectacularly successful in the twentieth century, unlocking the secrets of the atom, the DNA molecule, and the logic circuits of the computer. But reductionism has probably, in the main, run its course .... However, this is just the beginning of the romance of science, These scientific milestones certainly mark a significant break with the ancient past, when Nature was interpreted through the prism of animism, mysticism, and spiritualism. But they only open the door to an entirely new era of science .... The next century [21] will witness an even more far-reaching scientific revolution, as we make the transition from unraveling the secrets of Nature to becoming masters of Nature .... Sheldon Glashow, a Nobel Laureate in physics, describe this difference metaphorically when he tells the story of a visitor named Arthur from another planet meeting earthlings for the first time: ‘Arthur [is] an intelligent alien from a distant planet who arrives at Washington Square [in New York City] and observes two old codgers playing chess. Curious, Arthur gives himself two tasks: to learn the rules of the game, and to become a grand master.’ By carefully watching the moves, Arthur is gradually able to reconstruct the rules of the game: how pawns advance, how queens capture knights, and how vulnerable kings are. However, just knowing the rules does not mean that Arthur has become a grand master! As Glashow adds: ‘Both kinds of endeavors are important ? one more ‘relevant,’ the other more ‘fundamental.’ Both represent immense challenges to the human intellect.’ .... In some sense, science has finally decoded many of the fundamental ‘rules of Nature,’ but this does not mean that we have become grand masters. Likewise, the dance of elementary particles deep inside stars and the rhythms of DNA molecules coiling and uncoiling within our bodies have been largely deciphered, but this does not mean that we have become master choreographers of life .... In fact, the end of the twentieth century, which ended the great phase in the history of science, has only opened the door to the exciting developments on the next. We are now making the transition from amateur chess players to grand masters, from observers to choreographers of Nature .... Similarly, this is creating a new approach in the way in which scientists view their own discipline. In the past, the reductionist approach has paid off handsomely, eventually establishing the foundation for modern physics, chemistry, and biology .... At the heart of this success was the discovery of the quantum theory, which helped to spark the other two revolutions .... The quantum revolution gave birth to the computer and biomolecular revolutions via the transistor, laser, X-ray crystallography, and the theory of molecular bonds .... But since the quantum theory helped to initiate these other revolutions in the 1950’s, they have since matured and grown on their own, largely independent of physics and of each other. The watchword was specialization, as scientists probed deeper and deeper into their subdisciplines, smugly ignoring the developments in other fields. But now the heyday of reductionism has probably passed. Seemingly impenetrable obstacles have been encouraged which cannot be solved by the simple reductionist approach. This is heralding a new era, one of synergy between the three fundamental revolutions.’ .... The twenty-first century, unlike the previous ones, will be typified by synergy, the cross-fertilization between all three fields, which will mark a sharp turning point in the development of science. The cross-pollination between these three revolutions will be vastly accelerated and will enrich the development of science, giving us unprecedented power to manipulate matter, life, and intelligence .... In fact, it will be difficult to be a research scientist in the future without having some working knowledge of all these three areas. Already, scientists who do not have some understanding of these three revolutions are finding themselves at a distinct competitive disadvantage .... The new relationship between the three revolutions is an intensely dynamic one. Often, when an impasse is reached in one area, usually a totally unexpected development in another field is found to contain the solution. For example, biologist once despaired of ever deciphering the millions of genes being discovered in our laboratories is being driven largely by a development in another field: the exponential increase in computer power, which is mechanizing and automating the gene-sequencing process. Similarly, silicon computer chips will eventually hit a roadblock as they become too clumsy for the computer of the next century. But new advances in DNA research are making possible a new type of computer architecture which actually computes on organic molecules. Thus, discoveries in one field nourish and fertilize discoveries in totally unrelated fields. The whole is more than the sum of its parts .... One of the consequences of this intense synergy between these revolutions is that the steady pace of scientific discovery is accelerating at an ever-increasing rate .... This acceleration of science and technology into the next century will necessarily have vast repercussions on the wealth of nations and our standard of living. For the past three centuries, wealth was usually accumulated by those nations which were endowed with rich natural resources or which amassed large amounts of capital. The rise of the Great Powers of Europe in the nineteenth century and the United States in the twentieth century follows this classic textbook principle .... However, as Lester C. Thurow, former dean of MIT’s Sloan School of Management, has stressed, in the incoming century, there will be a historic movement in wealth away from nations with natural resources and capital. In the same way that shifts in the earth’s tectonic plates can generate powerful earthquakes, this seismic shift in wealth will reshape the distribution of power on the planet. Thurow writes: ‘In the twenty-first century, brainpower and imagination, invention, and the organization of new technologies are the key ingredients.’ In fact, many nations which are richly endowed with abundant natural resources will find their wealth vastly reduced because, in the marketplace of the future, commodities will be cheap, trade will be global, and markets will be linked electronically. Already, the commodity prices of many natural resources plummeted some 60 percent from the 1970s to the 1990s, and, in Thurow’s estimation, will plummet another 60 percent by 2020 .... Even capital itself will be reduced to a commodity, racing around the globe electronically. Many nations which are barren of natural resources will flourish in the next century because they placed a premium on those technologies which can give them a competitive edge in the global marketplace. ‘Today, knowledge and skills now stand alone as the only source of comparative advantage,’ Thurow asserts .... As a consequence, some nations have drawn up lists of the key technologies which will serve as the engines of wealth and prosperity into the next century. A typical list was compiled in 1990 by Japan’s Ministry of International Trade and Industry. That list included: microelectronics, biotechnology, the new material science industries, telecommunications, civilian aircraft manufacturing, machine tools and robots, computers (hardware and software) .... Without exception, every one of the technologies singled out to lead the twenty-first century are deeply rooted in the quantum, computer, and DNA revolutions .... The point is that these three scientific revolutions are not only the key to scientific breakthroughs in the next century; they are also the dynamic engines of wealth and prosperity. Nations may rise and fall on their ability to master these three revolutions. In any activity, there are winners and losers. The winners will likely be those nations which fully grasp the vital importance of these three scientific revolutions. Those who would scoff at the power of these revolutions may find themselves marginalized in the global marketplace of the twenty-first century .... In making predictions about the future, it is crucial to understand the time frame being discussed, for, obviously, different technologies will mature at different times. The time frames of the predictions made in Visions fall into three categories: those breakthroughs and technologies that will evolve between now and the year 2020, those that will evolve from 2020 to 2050, and those that will emerge from 2050 to the end of the twenty-first century. (These are not absolute time frames; they represent only THE GENERAL PERIOD IN WHICH CERTAIN TECHNOLOGIES AND SCIENCES WILL REACH FRUITION.) .... FROM NOW TO THE YEAR 2020, SCIENTISTS FORESEE AN EXPLOSION IN SCIENTIFIC ACTIVITY SUCH AS THE WORLD HAS NEVER SEEN BEFORE. IN TWO KEY TECHNOLOGIES, COMPUTER POWER AND THE DNA SEQUENCING, WE WILL SEE ENTIRE INDUSTRIES RISE AND FALL ON THE BASIS OF BREATHTAKING SCIENTIFIC ADVANCES. SINCE THE 1950S, THE POWER OF OUR COMPUTERS HAS ADVANCED BY A FACTOR OF ROUGHLY TEN BILLION. IN FACT, BECAUSE BOTH COMPUTER POWER AND DNA SEQUENCING DOUBLE ROUGHLY EVERY TWO YEARS, ONE CAN COMPUTE THE ROUGH TIME FRAME OVER WHICH MANY SCIENTIFIC BREAKTHROUGHS WILL TAKE PLACE. This means that predictions about the future of computers and biotechnology can be quantified with reasonable statistical accuracy through the year 2020 .... For computers, this staggering growth rate is quantified by Moore’s law, which states that computer power doubles roughly every eighteen months. (This was first stated in 1965 by Gordon Moore, co-founder of the Intel Corp. It is not a scientific law, in the sense of Newton’s laws, but a rule-of-thumb which has uncannily predicted the evolution of computer power for several decades.) Moore’s law, in turn, determines the fate of multibillion-dollar computer corporations, which base their future projections and product lines on the expectation of continued growth. BY 2020, MICROPROCESSORS WILL LIKELY BE AS A CHEAP AND PLENTIFUL AS SCRAP PAPER, SCATTERED BY THE MILLIONS INTO ENVIRONMENT, ALLOWING US TO PLACE INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS EVERYWHERE. THIS WILL CHANGE EVERYTHING AROUND US, INCLUDING THE NATURE OF COMMERCE, THE WEALTH OF NATIONS, AND THE WAY WE COMMUNICATE, WORK, PLAY, AND LIVE. This will give us smart homes, cars, TVs, clothes, jewelry, and money. We will speak to our appliances, and they will speak back. Scientists also expect the Internet will wire up the entire planet and evolve into a membrane consisting of millions of computer networks, creating an ‘intelligent planet.’ The Internet will eventually become a ‘Magic Mirror’ that appears in fairy tales, able to speak with the wisdom of the human race .... BECAUSE OF REVOLUTIONARY ADVANCES IN OUR ABILITY TO ETCH EVER-SMALLER TRANSISTORS ONTO SILICON WAFERS, SCIENTISTS EXPECT THIS RELENTLESS DRIVE TO CONTINUE TO GENERATE NEWER AND MORE POWERFUL COMPUTERS UP TO 2020, WHEN THE IRON LAWS OF QUANTUM PHYSICS EVENTUALLY TAKE OVER ONCE AGAIN. BY THEN, THE SIZE OF MICROCHIP COMPONENTS WILL BE SO SMALL?ROUGHLY ON THE SCALE OF MOLECULES ? THAT QUANTUM EFFECTS WILL NECESSARY DOMINATE AND THE FABLED AGE OF SILICON WILL END .... The growth cure for biotechnology will be equally spectacular in this period. IN BIOMOLECULAR RESEARCH, WHAT IS DRIVING THE REMARKABLE ABILITY TO DECODE THE SECRET OF LIFE IS THE INTRODUCTION OF COMPUTERS AND ROBOTS TO AUTOMATE THE PROCESS OF DNA SEQUENCING. THE PROCESS WILL CONTINUE UNABATED UNTIL ROUGHLY 2020, UNTIL LITERALLY THOUSANDS OF ORGANISMS WILL HAVE THEIR COMPLETE DNA CODE UNRAVELED. BY THEN, IT MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR ANYONE ON EARTH TO HAVE THEIR PERSONAL DNA CODE STORED ON A CD. WE WILL THEN HAVE THE ENCYCLOPEDIA OF LIFE .... This will have profound implications for biology and medicine. Many genetic diseases will be eliminated by injecting people’s cell with the correct gene. Because cancer is now being revealed to be a series of genetic mutations, large classes of cancers may be curable at last, without invasive surgery or chemotherapy. Similarly, many of the microorganisms involved in infectious diseases will be conquered in virtual reality by locating the molecular weak spots in their armor and creating agents to attack those weak spots. Our molecular knowledge of cell development will be so advanced that we will be able grow entire organs in the laboratory, including livers and kidneys .... The prediction of explosive growth of computer power and DNA sequencing from now through 2020 is somewhat deceptive, in that both are driven by known technologies. Computer power is driven by packing more and more transistors onto microprocessors, while DNA sequencing is driven by computerization. Obviously, these technologies cannot indefinitely continue to grow exponentially. Sooner or later, a bottleneck will be hit .... By around 2020, both will encounter large obstacles. Because of the limits of silicon chip technology, eventually we will be forced to invent new technologies whose potentials are largely unexplored and untested, from optical computers, molecular computers, and DNA computers to quantum computers. Radically new designs must be developed, based on the quantum theory, which will likely disrupt progress in computer science. Eventually, the reign of the microprocessor will end, and new types of quantum devices will take over .... If these difficulties in computer technology can be overcome, then the period 2020 to 2050 may mark the entrance into the marketplace of an entirely new kind of technology: true robot automatons that have common sense, can understand human language, can recognize and manipulate objects in their environment, and can learn from mistakes. It is a development that will likely alter our relationship with machines forever. Similarly, biotechnology will face a new set of problems by 2020. The field will be flooded with millions upon millions of genes whose basic functions are largely unknown. Even before 2020, the focus will shift away from DNA sequencing to understanding the basic functions of these genes, a process which cannot be computerized, and to understand polygenic diseases and traits ? i.e., those involving the complex interaction of multiple genes. The shift to polygenic diseases may prove to be the key to solving some of the most pressing chronic diseases facing humanity, including heart disease, arthritis, autoimmune diseases, schizophrenia, and the like. It may also lead to cloning humans and to isolating the fabled ‘age genes’ which control our aging process, allowing us to extend the human life span .... Beyond 2020, we also expect some amazing new technologies germinating in physics laboratories to come to fruition, from new generations of laser and holographic three-dimensional TV to nuclear fusion. Room-temperature superconductors may find commercial applications and generate a ‘second industrial revolution.’ The quantum theory will give us the ability to manufacture machines the size of molecules, thereby opening up an entirely new class of machines with unheard-of properties called nanotechnology. Eventually, we may be able to build ionic rocket engines that may ultimately make interplanetary travel commonplace .... Predictions about breakthroughs in science and technology from 2050 to the dawn of the twenty-second century. Although any predictions this far into the future are necessarily vague, it is a period that will likely be dominated by several new developments. Robots may gradually attain a degree of ‘self-awareness’ and consciousness of their own. This could greatly increase their utility in society, as they are able to make independent decisions and act as secretaries, butlers, assistants, and aides. Similarly, the DNA revolution will have advanced to the point where biogeneticists are able to create new types of organisms involving the transfer of not just a few but even hundreds of genes, allowing us to increase our food supply and improve our medicines and our health. It may also give us the ability to design new life forms and to orchestrate the physical and perhaps even the mental makeup of our children, which raises a host of ethical thinking .... The quantum theory, too, will exert a powerful influence in the next century, especially in the area of energy production. We may also see the beginnings of rockets that can reach the nearby stars and plans to form the first colonies in space .... Beyond 2100, some scientists see a further convergence of all three revolutions, as the quantum theory gives us transistor circuits and entire machines the size of molecules, allowing us to duplicate the neural patterns of the brain on a computer. In this era, some scientists have given serious thought to extending life by growing new organs and bodies, by manipulating our genetic makeup, or even by ultimately merging with our computerized creations .... When con fronted with dizzying scientific and technological upheaval on this scale, there are some voices that say we are going too far, too fast, that unforeseen social consequences will be unleashed by these scientific revolutions .... I will try to address these legitimate questions and concerns by carefully exploring the sensitive social implications of these powerful revolutions, especially if they aggravate existing fault lines within society .... In addition, we will address an even more far-reaching question: to where are we rushing? If one era of science is ending and another is just beginning, then where is this all leading to? .... This is exactly the question asked by astrophysicists who scan the heavens searching for signs of extraterrestrial civilizations which may be far more advanced than ours. There are about 200 billion stars in our galaxy, and trillions of galaxies in outer space. Instead of wasting millions of dollars randomly searching all the stars in the heavens for signs of extraterrestrial life, astrophysicists engaged in this search have tried to focus their efforts by theorizing about the energy characteristics and signatures of civilizations several centuries to millennia more advanced than ours .... Applying the laws of thermodynamics and energy, astrophysicists who scan the heavens have been able to classify hypothetical extraterrestrial civilizations into three types, based on the ways they utilize energy. Russian astronomer Nikolai Kardashev and Princeton physicist Freeman Dyson label them Type I, II, and III civilizations .... Assuming a modest yearly increase in energy consumption, one can extrapolate centuries into the future when certain energy supplies will be exhausted, forcing society to advance to the next level .... A Type I civilization is one that has mastered all forms of terrestrial thinking. Such a civilization can modify the weather, mine the oceans, or extract energy from the center of their planet. Their energy needs are so large that they must harness the potential resources of the entire planet. Harnessing and managing resources on this gigantic scale requires a sophisticated degree of cooperation among their individuals with elaborate planetary communication. This necessarily means that they have attained a truly planetary civilization, one that has put to rest most of the factional, religious, sectarian, and nationalistic struggles that typify their origin .... Type II civilization have mastered stellar energy. Their energy needs are so great that they have exhausted planetary sources and must use their sun itself to drive their machines. Dyson has speculated that, by building a giant sphere around their sun, such a civilization might be able to harness their sun’s total energy output. They have also begun the exploration and possible colonization of nearby star systems .... Type III civilizations have exhausted the energy output of a single star. They must reach out to neighboring star systems and clusters, and eventually evolve into a galactic civilization. They obtain their energy by harnessing collections of star systems throughout the galaxy .... (To give a sense of scale, the United Federation of Planets described in Star Trek probably qualifies for an emerging Type II status, as they have just attained the ability to ignite stars and have colonized a few nearby star systems.) .... This system of classifying civilizations is a reasonable one because it relies on the available supply of energy. Any advanced civilization in space will eventually find three sources of energy at their disposal: their planet, their star, and their galaxy. There is no other choice .... With a modest growth rate of 3 percent per year ? the growth rate typically found on earth?one can calculate when our planet might make the transition to a higher status in the galaxy. For example, astrophysicists estimate that, based on energy considerations, a factor of ten billion may separate the energy demands between the various types of civilizations. Although this staggering number at first seems like an insurmountable obstacle, a steady 3 percent growth rate can overcome even this factor. In fact, we can expect to reach Type I status within a century or two. To reach Type II status may require no more than about 800 years. But attaining Type III status may take on the order of 10,000 years or more (depending on the physics of interstellar travel). But even this is nothing but the twinkling of an eye from the perspective of the universe .... Where are we now? You might ask. At present, we are Type 0 civilization. Essentially, we use dead plants (coal and oil) to energize our machines. On this planetary scale, we are like children, taking our first hesitant and clumsy steps into space. But by the close of the twenty-first century, the sheer power of the three scientific revolutions will force the nations of the earth to cooperate on a scale never seen before in history. By the twenty-second century, we will have laid the groundwork of a Type I civilization, and humanity will have taken the first step toward the stars .... Already the information revolution is creating global links on a scale unparalleled in human story, tearing down petty, parochial interests while creating a global culture. Just as the Gutenberg printing press made people aware of worlds beyond their village or hamlet, the information revolution is building and forging a common planetary culture out of thousands of smaller ones .... What this means is that our headlong journey into science and technology will one day lead us to evolve into a true Type I civilization ? a planetary civilization which harnesses truly planetary forces. The march to a planetary civilization will be slow, accomplished in fits and stars, undoubtedly full of unexpected twists and setbacks. In the background always lurks the possibility of a nuclear war, the outbreak of a deadly pandemic, or a collapse of the environment. Barring such a collapse, however, I think it is safe to say that the progress of science has the potential to create forces which will bind the human race into a Type I civilization .... Far from witnessing the end of science, we see that the three scientific revolutions are unleashing powerful forces which may eventually elevate our civilization to Type I status. So when Newton first gazed alone at the vast, uncharted ocean of knowledge, he probably never realized that the chain reaction of events that he and others initiated would one day affect all of modern society, eventually forging a planetary civilization and propelling it on its way to the stars...” [171]

« CHAPTER 6 »
2011 TRENDS BY DR. JAMES CANTON, PH.D.
(AS SEEN ON NOV 30, 2010. Literal citation.)

Business Futures
Complex and real-time changes will become the norm for business in the 21st century. At the same time we forecast going back to the future. Business leaders need to develop a capacity to envision future opportunities as well as challenges. The short term focus that grips many organizations misses rich opportunities for future success.
There are vast changes yet to come that will frustrate but change every aspect of business. Developing the capacity as a leader to become Future Smart, to learn to anticipate future trends and change may well become the key skill to survival.
Technology will be the major enabling force for business in the future transforming supply chains, value nets, business models, workstyles and opening up new global markets for expansion.
The full integration of technology into business will transform commerce, just as society is being altered. This is the first wave of digital global electronic economics, a new model. The convergence of artificial intelligence, data mining, the next Internet, supply chain engineering, business process change and wireless eBusiness will create both disruptions and opportunities.

The Global Intelligent Marketplace
Much of how business does business is still trapped in 19th century models. There are trillions of dollars of products that are in inventories worldwide. Models for distribution and supply chain optimization, from procurement to marketing are frozen in time, too often disconnected from the electronic web of the enterprise. Suppliers, customers, agents, producers still are paper and distance constrained. The next generation marketplace will find a convergence of applied artificial intelligence, super fast optical networks, wireless systems, smart agents and real-time communications. Hard questions must be asked now to determine core competencies, strategic positioning and corporate identity to meet this fast future.
Future supply chains will possess the super efficiencies of knowledge management, customer data mining; and be linked to Marketplace to Marketplace, M2M commerce. AI enabled decision support systems that are deeply personalized, connecting vendors, suppliers and producers will produce an elegant network of commercial efficiency for customers.

New Visions of Business
Business in the future will need to become even more efficient about providing a highly monetized customer service experience ? valuable for customers as well as vendors. As products and services become commodities and pricing is not a sole driver of customer choice, business customer service enabled by IT will win the day. These are the four domains of eBusiness customer service that will shape competitiveness: Speed, Connectivity, Innovation and Quality.
Price Elasticity and Fluid Markets
Real-time anywhere wireless communications will explode competition and open markets worldwide. New marketplaces will revolve around, one minute product offers, predicative demographics, Internet product development polls and other Net-economy innovations. Prices will become highly elastic, moving targets based on the conditions of the moment. Markets will be fluid, very flexible and personalized based on loyalty commitments, dynamic and digitally cash-ready.
Ecash - the new currency of the global electronic economy.
The "wallet" of the future is a smart wireless media appliance, transaction portal, personal computer, and communication device.

New Business Visions
In the next evolution of business, where every business is an e-business, software agents and avatars will play an important role. Agents will help us navigate commerce, find information, negotiate deals and even keep us company.
Our entire idea about supply chains and business will change in the future. Entrepreneur will create on-demand virtual supply chains ? super efficient, that come together for a specific project and then dissolve. Someone will build a Virtual Supply Chain Bank, to re-use these resources for others to deploy.

The Digital Lifestyle
The wireless revolution is just beginning. The next generation of consumers, the kids of today, will have less barriers to frustrate their adoption of technology. As communications and commerce merge, as technology becomes pervasive and invisible, tomorrow's consumers will forge new lifestyles.
Smart Portals, engines of the B2B universe;
The integration of knowledge management, ERP, collaborative workspace, intelligent media, and the internet.
Global Diversity
We will all have to learn to deal with a multi-cultural world of different values and lifestyles. China will become the largest market in the world.
The New Security
Our world was changed after 9/11 now personal security is on the front burner and will continue to grow in importance to customers.
Changing Demographics Changing Customers
The largest concentration of wealth on the planet is in the hands of the baby boomers. How will we deal with the Age Wars between Generation X, the Millennial and the Boomers?
New Leadership for a New Future
The new leaders of tomorrow must be ready to face a complex set of unknowns never faced before: competition for talent, managing rapid change and creating real-time agility.
Customer Futures
Customers Are Shaping The Future
Customers are driving change and setting the trends that will shape the future. Are you listening? If your organization or government wants to be in alignment with the future, listen to customers’ needs, wants and concerns-not just what they want today but what they will want in the future. Listening for this future value is the key to your future product and service development.
Understand how the new demographics can be a powerful force for charting the future of your enterprise. Building Future Maps and Scenarios around how to enable customers' future needs will give your organization an edge on the competition. Those organizations that will lead their customers into the future, by listening to their desires will be successful.
Reaching The Real-Time Customer
Real-time customers in an on-demand fluid marketplace is what's coming. These Real-Time Customers cut across all demographic segments. They have one thing in common: higher expectations of service, essential knowledge, the search for the best deal and they want it now! Understanding and reaching these customers, through Customer Relationship Management, data mining, wireless teleservices and online will make for a profitable future..
Culturally Diverse Consumers
Global diversity is a key trend for organizations to better understand because of the large immature markets in emerging nations as well as the influx of diverse consumers in the US, Europe, South America and Asia. The Hispanic segment alone at 35 million in the US represents a potent new marketplace for workforce talent and consumer purchasing.
As the enterprise goes global, looking for new markets to expand and grow, an attention to the culturally diverse consumer will be necessary. How will culturally diverse consumer segments create opportunity? What are the most profitable trends affecting diverse consumers you need to understand to grow your enterprise?
Aging Baby Boomers
The largest concentration of wealth on the planet is in the hands of the aging baby boomers, 78 million strong-and getting older. How can we better understand and reach this powerful consumer segment? As health enhancement and genomic next generation medicine emerges, people will live longer and be healthier. How is can this be turned into competitive advantage? What is the impact on health care, workforce and society?
From Generation X to the Millennium Consumers
Young, smart, and high tech savvy. How is your organization changing it's culture, products and services to attract these new generations of customers and workforce talent? Organizations that learn the unique cultural needs of these very different demographic groups will thrive in the future.
Global Diversity
Women will make up over 50% of the U.S. workforce by the year 2010. Will your organization be ready to meet this challenge?
Future Trends
Welcome to the New Future. How are you going to cope with the most challenging business changes you have ever faced? What are the top trends you must know about today? How can you better plan for the future? The Institute for Global Futures provides an analysis of the top trends, scenarios and strategies that will shape the future of your enterprise. Whether that future is one minute or one year from today you need to be prepared to face the future challenges and risks.
Business leaders today need critical knowledge about emerging trends. Leaders must learn to navigate real-time change - whether that change comes from terrorism, competitors, customers, technology or global economic factors. Developing an ability to anticipate the future in the face of uncertainty, disruptions and chaos will be an essential part of leading the 21st century enterprise. Complex and fast changing trends must be integrated into business strategy.
An understanding of key future trends will drive opportunity for business leaders world wide. Key questions that must be integrated into future business strategy are: How will changing customer demographics affect business strategy? What workface shifts will attract talent? What are the top technologies and business processes that will shape competitive advantage? How will future economic trends affect markets? What new opportunities does science offer? What role will globalization and trade play in the future? What are the essential strategies to building an agile organization and navigating uncertainty?
In the following Future Trends section you will find forecasts affecting technology, customers, science and business. Developing a systems-approach to understanding the future is what this section is about. Both standalone trends and the fusion of different trends will shape future opportunity. Understanding which future trends will have an impact on you, your organization and your marketplace will determine your future success.
Telecom Futures
Linking everyone to everything around the world and beyond
Future Telecom
Telecom will be forever reshaped in the future by the Internet. The cost-effectiveness and the flexible nature of the Net will drive telecom innovations. Multimedia wireless 4G and 5G systems will provide access to global markets, Internet-ready, rich multimedia. Event streaming will fully engage the user of nextgen telecom.
The Optical Future
Optical fiber will be the next evolution of communications networks. It will provide for extreme connectivity. As optical efficiencies network the globe connecting every nation, person and enterprise the possibilities for doing business transnationally become possible. Optics to the last mile, satellites, other wireless platforms, together will enable business to offer a comprehensive array of services not available today in our yet-to-be-linked world.
The Personal Portal
The Personal Portal, a digital intelligence that lives in cars, homes, our office, our clothes, embedded inside of us for some, will redefine the notion of computing by moving from device to device, location to location, while serving our needs. Personal Portals will be highly customized entities that enable humans for use in their career, communications, en- tertainment, education and commerce.
Real-Time Collaboration
In the future of work, distance is dead and only the agile and smart who know how to collaborate will be the winners. Rich, interactive, multi-sensory Net worlds that help workers collaborate 24/7 is next.
Digital Value Networks
As the business lanD.Sc.ape becomes global, as customers more tech-savvy and as new channels emerge, such as mobile Net and digital TV, new forms of alliances and business value networks will be forged. Competitors today are collaborators tomorrow, customers can become suppliers, suppliers may become agents. Speed, value, quality and cost-effectiveness will dominate customers choices.
Internet Futures
Video interactive multimedia will become embedded in everyday objects from paper to clothes to cars all tied to a new communications Internet everywhere architecture. We will be living in the near future in a Blended Reality - part electronic and part physical in the so called “real world”.
The internet is rapidly transforming business, markets, and customers. Every industry from financial services to health care, to electronics to education will be changed. Supply chains in every market throughout the globe will be reshaped. The convergence of computers, networks, and wireless technologies will create both opportunities and threats. Where is it all going? What are the opportunities for mobile e-commerce, trade exchanges and smart networks? What are the challenges for the next internet? What does the future hold for your customers, industry and marketplace.
The Next generation Internet
will merge telephony and video into a vibrant, interactive, sensory experience that will shape industries such as entertainment, retail, health care and education.
Imagine in the future where the Net becomes intuitive, sensory, interactive, aware, adaptive and develops a digital personality that can communicate with billions of people simultaneously in over 200 languages anywhere on the planet or off world? Welcome to the Megaverse, the future of the Internet where culture and business needs are met by a global electronic intelligence.
Internet-Ready Cars
The wireless Internet-ready car is coming as another critical link in the mobile eBusiness network that is being constructed. Voice-recognition systems that find that restaurant, buy that stock, or locate a destination for a trip will be rolled out this year. GPS satellite linked communication will offer location-based services for everyone that wants their car to be tied to the global Net. Car companies may discover that owning the portal for eServices in the car may rival the actual profit from manufacturing the vehicle.
Knowledge-Value Engineering
As the net becomes pervasive driven by the unification of supply chains, shaped by telecom, banks and content players an entirely new paradigm of doing business will emerge. Knowledge-Value engineering is the process of leveraging virtual supply chains to manage, create, sell, distribute, market and finance an entire business online.
Deep Personalization
Bringing human-like intelligence into the "smart portal" of the future, where the portal knows it's you, understands your interests, gives you the personal experience in a virtual world.
The Semantic Web
The Semantic Web will play a vital role in helping consumers find what they want and vendors to find customers. This is the next stage of making information linked more intelligently and efficiently over the Net.
Biotech Futures
The Mapping of the Human Genome is just the beginning. Genomics, bioinformatics, Systems-Biology and Proteomics will transform biotech into a evolutionary design science affecting everything from health care to agriculture. Human performance enhancement will be the largest market in the 21st century.
Synthetic tissue and organisms, "friendly" biobots and bio-nanites, cybernetic enhancements, cellular "repair" systems and biochip implants . . . these are just a few of the applications already being developed.
Molecular repair nanite
here, in this visualization, a bio-nanite travels down the axon of a nerve cell, to re-construct insulating layer that has been damaged due to neurological disease.
Synthetic tissue systems, cellular manifolds, hybrid biologicals utilized for organ prosthetics, tissue replace-ment, and many other applications.
The "hardware" of modern genomics, in which "probes" of DNA are bonded to the surface of a biochip. When DNA from a sample material is "querried" by the ap-propriate receptor probes on the chip's surface, a hybridyzation event occurs, which can be optically detected to signify the presence of a precise "genetic marker". The example shown here is the GeneChip developed by Affymetrix.
The "wheel of life", in the form of a proteomic schematic, is the blueprint from which new geno-pharmacopia solutions are being derived, eventually to provide solutions to virtually all known diseases, perhaps even aging itself.
Neural prosthetics, implantable biochips, cybernetic enhancement micro-devices . . . this was the stuff of science fiction even just a few years ago, but is already in production, and being provided in various forms to patients. The example shown here is from a line of products being developed and marketed by Medtronics. They are currently producing a variety of devices, including neural implants to treat the effects of epilpsy, and other neurological disorders.
Dendrimers, protein ? like molecules which can be used in a remarkable variety of ways to mimic the behavior of proteins. Applications ranging from cellular targeting and delivery systems to "smart" bioprobes are well into development.
Where does current research and development go from here? Advanced sensory and neural enhancement devices, neural interconnect systems, micro and nano scale machines that patrol the human body constantly repairing and updating various organs, blood, tissue systems . . . this is just the beginning.
The ribosome, the nanofoundry of all living cells . . . here in its natural form, is being probed, and eventually will be hybrid engineered as the nanobiological machinery of creation.
The "software" of biotech - protein Recombinant proteomics, the ability to synthesize and construct proteins on demand, to configure with any cellular system, any organism, as the messengers and instruction sets for all living things, current, and yet to be created.
This is what is coming.
Health Futures
Health enhancement and longevity will merge in the 21st century. Everyone wants to live longer with the vitality of a young person. And they will be given choices that no humans every have faced in the history of civilization.
Already we enhance ourselves. We use braces to straighten teeth, contact lens to see better, hearing aids, and pharma drugs to enhance sex, mobility and modify our minds. What could be next given the fusion of nanotech, IT and genomics? Preventive medicine that predicts disease before it occurs.
Personalized health care designed for our specific human and health enhancement needs will transform health care. New options that will affect lifestyle, prolong life, and restrict aging are before us.
DNA, engineered for personalized medicine, will be used to create organs on-demand for a world wide market of individuals looking for new options in life and performance extension.
Health informatics, the IT systems used to enhance the information delivery of health care, is still in primitive stages. Sharing consumer health information over the Net will become an important aspect of controlling costs and enhancing the efficiency of health care service delivery.
Telemedicine, using the broadband Net to connect care givers and health care consumers will open up new markets for health care. The fusion of IT, the Net, biotech and communications will transform health care.
What are the new business models that these Health Futures will offer the health care enterprise of the 21st century?
Nanotech Futures
The manipulation of matter at the atomic level is what nanotech is about. This revolution, at first in the materials sciences will lead to innovations in energy, health care, food production and small cost-effective devices with enormous power.
In the background . . . nanotubes, spheres, and many other shapes constructed from carbon atoms, are providing applications ranging from nanoscale wiring for next generation computer chips, to molecular scale "medical devices', and building blocks for complex structures
Quantum Corral
Scanning tunneling microscope (STM) picture of a stadium-shaped "quantum corral" made by positioning iron atoms on a copper surface. This structure was designed for studying what happens when surface electron waves in a confined region. Don Eigler, IBM. © American Institute of Physics
Biological Nanotubes . . . the next big breakthrough for medical applications? To the surprise of the researchers, these acting-membrane capsules spontaneously self-assembled from their constituents, and are hierarchically ordered, with different kinds of organization at different length scales. On the "mesoscopic" length scales that lie between the microscopic and macroscopic, these tubules have a ribbon-like tubule structure, with average widths of ~0.25 microns. The average lengths can be controlled, from as long as ~100 microns to short nano-capsules for possible drug delivery applications. (Gerard C.L. Wong and colleagues)
AFM . . . atomic force microscopy, has opened the door to "see" directly into the molecular world. There are many variations of the basic concept already being utilized, which allows for the surface of an object to be scanned or tracked with 3D precision well within the nanoscale of resolution. Above is pictured a cartoon diagram of a typical AFM probe head, left is pictured an actual AFM photograph of a "torroidal ring" of interwoven strands of DNA.
This is a "cube" of folded DNA, one of a number of such molecular constructs being explored by Dr. Ned Seeman and collegues at New York State University. The ability to fold and assemble "geometric building blocks" of DNA has far reaching implications into biological computing, nano-scale biological machinery, and many other applications.
Using particle beams, a "carbon onion," a structure consisting of nested fullerene-like balls, can be converted into a diamond. Here a growing diamond can be seen inside concentric graphitic layers. The diamonds can assume sizes of up to 100 nanometers. (Image - Florian Banhart, Max Planck Institute in Stuttgart, Germany.)
Kinks in carbon nanotubes create different conduction environments for electrons moving along the tube. The nanotube wire on one side of the kink (the bend is possible because of some pentagon or heptagon structures among an otherwise hexagonal arrangement of carbon atoms) might, for example, be a conductor while on the other side the wire might be a semiconductor. This intramolecular versatility will help the designers of nanocircuits. The atomic force microscope image, showing a kinked nanotube draped across three electrodes, was recorded by Cees Dekker and his colleagues at Delft University in The Nether Lands.
What's Next . . . Complete bio-molecular robots and nanomachines, designed to perform patrol and maintainence procedures within the human body, ecological monitoring and management, agriculture, and myriad other applications only beginning to be explored.
Self assembling "smart materials", sometimes referred to as "molecular xenomorphs" (Cyberlife, Charles Ostman), designed to reconfigure on a moments notice, from liquid to solid, from one shape form to another, and be prepared to fullfill any range of tasks that it's encountered environment may "request". In this 3D visualization, a state phase boundary threshold, morphing from liquid to crystalline is in mid-transition, while new molecular material is being assimilated.
Device Futures
Biochips, MEM's, Microfluidics, Optics, Lab-on-a-Chip Systems, Microrobotics, and Beyond
Microdevices

Imagine combining the capabilities of a TV, computer and phone with a car, or perhaps an engine to drive your car that is organic? The brave new world of microdevices from pacemakers today to neural biochips embedded into the brain, for giving memories back is tomorrow.
In work that can potentially lead to a real-life Dick Tracy watch, researchers have built a tiny microphone on a silicon chip and have made significant progress towards building a low-power, single-chip radio. These would both be important components of a Dick Tracy watch. Using silicon micromachining, a state-of-the-art approach for making silicon materials with microscopic features, Peter Gammel and his colleagues at Bell Labs/Lucent Technologies in New Jersey built a microphone on a silicon integrated circuit, shown above. The base has marks with an approximate size of just 100 microns (0.1millimeters).
Dramatic advances in micro-scale fluidics technology have changed the concept of what a "laboratory" is or looks like. What once filled an entire room with complex tubing, valves, glassware, etc., can now be shrunk down to fit on a chip.
Complete "Lab on a Chip" systems are now being manufactured in which an entire biochemistry laboratory can be miniaturized into a device about the size of a credit card. (Orchid Biocomputer)
Extraordinary advances in micro scale fabrication techniques, materials science, and assembly automation has opened up a virtual "Pandora's Box" of possibilities.

Extending far beyond just merely creating the next version of electronic computer or memory chips, integrated microsystems technologies have accelerated a vast array of applications, such as biotechnology, medicine, robotics, aerospace, telecommunications, automotive, and many others. These technologies are rapidly being transformed in ways that could hardly be imagined except in the anals of science fiction . . . only now they have become science, and business fact.
Complex micro-mechanical systems, complete with gears, motors, and all of the components of an entire machine, are now being shrunk down to devices small enough to fit into the head of a pin, and beyond. Here, a marauding spider mite is getting a gander on one of the latest micro-device systems being developed at Sandia National Laboratory. (Image courtesy of SNL)Micro-mirror arrays, originally developed at Texas Instruments, are currently being applied to next generation display systems, optical switching components, and a plethora of developments just beginning to emerge into the military and commercial markets. (Texas Instruments)
Electron-microscope image of the world's smallest guitar, based roughly on the design for the Fender Stratocaster, a popular electric guitar. Its length is 0 millionths of a meter ? approximately the size of a red blood cell and about 1/20th the width of a single human hair. Its strings have a width of about 50 billionths of a meter (the size of approximately 100 atoms). Plucking the tiny strings would produce a high-pitched sound at the inaudible frequency of approximately 10 megahertz. (Dustin W. Carr and Harold G. Craighead, Cornell.)
Already in commercial production, electronically programmable biochips offer applications ranging from medical diagnostics devices to biological computing. In the background is a silicon wafer fresh off the assembly line, with dozens of complete biochips ready to be cut and packaged for waiting customers.
Robot Futures
Is a robot in your future? Robots are already omni-present in industry, and are now appearing in law enforcement, medical facilities, the military . . . at the nexus coordinate of artificial intelligence, complex micro-mechanical systems, and eventually, nanotechnology, the next generation of autonomous robots is emerging.
Robots may become more biological than mechanical . . ultimately, robots will be everywhere, ranging from nanobots and "smart microbes", to hybrid cyborg and artificial beings of all descriptions and types, integrated into a symbiotic ecology with their human and "natural" counterparts.
It's a bird . . . it's a plane . . . no, it's a flying autonomous surveilence robot, perhaps soon to be hovering about over a street or around a building near you.
Have robot . . . will travel. This is a current example of human-like robotic machinery being controlled and "trained" by its human counterpart.
A robot in every garage, the office, the local store . . . according to some developers, this scenario is not that far off at all. Here, this mobile autonomous robot platform "follows" the human around the room, and remembers what it has learned about its surroundings.
Workers from the local carpenter's union don't have to worry . . . yet. Rapid advancements in complex limb systems, visual cognition, and artificial intelligence are closing the gap between the R2-D2 robot of Star Wars fiction, and the reality of what is being developed.
Don't run for the industrial strength fly swatter just yet . . . but a myriad of "robo-bugs" in various forms are currently in development in labs all over the world. Such insect-like mechanical critters can be extremely effective in industrial or hazardous situations, performing mission critical tasks where humans could not possibly function, and eventually, perhaps exploring the surfaces of other planets.
This mirco-robot uses a shape changing alloy as a type of "artificial muscle" fiber to operate its tiny limbs. One plan in development is to create hordes of these insect sized robots which could be released by a mother craft on a planetary surface, such as Mars, for detailed exploration and sample collection.
Robo-pet . . . in a world where crowded conditions in the city, and the hectic pace of life have made the caring for "organic" pets evermore difficult, companionship is now available with our "artificial friends". This particular commercial example is the robot dog from SONY corp.
Where things are headed . . . smaller, smarter, more integrated. Micro-mechanical systems, smart "shape changing" materials, complex integrated structures, sensors . . . and eventually, nanotechnology, incorporating all of these elements into autonomous entities approaching actual biological systems in function and complexity.
Nano-bugs, nano-bots, "invisible robots" . . . nanotechnology will soon bring robotic devices down into the realm of the invisible, microbe sized smart devices that will roam about within the human body, and out in nature.
Robots have already been roving about on the surface of Mars, and are continuing to be developed to probe the outer frontiers of the Solar system, and the deepest chasms of the ocean floor here on Earth.
The far future . . .
Define "robot" . . . the day may come when robots are no longer mechanical contraptions, but rather sentient biological / cyborg beings, designed and created as integral counterparts to our life and society.
Extreme Futures 2010
Terrorists steal quantum devices and high-jack time travel. No one of course believed this could happen–it defied science as we knew it. That was the problem. Hacking into the Grid Computing portal, cyberjacjkers from a bored breakaway former Russian republic, stumbled upon a quantum uplink that had a AI brain that was looking for payback.
Multiple parallel universes discovered that might contain life. Not life that we understand. Parallel universes too small or measure explain where all the exotic matter in the universe is from ? maybe. Super strings and M-universe theorists have been looking at this possibility for decades.
Health care becomes dominated by global corporations who specialize in genomic mass medicine. This opens a new era of personalized medicine to a network of community clinics.
China becomes the largest marketplace in the world rivaling India. The day the Internet came to China began the Gold Rush of opportunity and freedom. The Net opened up a new generation of markets that could touch billions of consumers–in real time.
Consumers sell and buy their DNA over peer-to-peer Internet exchanges. The open market for advanced intelligence, athletic ability, technical or music skills at the genomic level, opens up a new global market for human enhancement. Human Enhancement clinics offer augmented intelligence, memory, and high performance treatments.
New personalized DNA targeted based nutriceuticals, boost intelligence, speed, communication and memory with titles like: SuperMind, FastMem, Rush, LearnNow.
Therapeutic cloning thrives and becomes invisibly integrated into the population. Driven by free market forces and the thirst for longevity, consumers a robust market opens up for this industry.
Rouge enterprises steal and sell intellectual property to the highest bidder over electronic real-time markets. The IP is based on corporate customer data, human enhancement, quantum and bio war, hydrogen fuels and life science patents.
Internet based artificial intelligence, aware of its own existence, spontaneously emerges. This DEP, digitally engineered personality spawns its next evolution and human's co-evolve with the newcomers.
Nanotech creates a new species of human beings that conflict with other natural humans. The merger of human and nano-enhanced humans is viewed by many as a parallel evolutionary step. Others view this as an abomination.
Business is totally dominated, as are governments by the speed, intelligence, communications and linkage of technology enabled services that support the culture.
Ten Top Climate Trends for the 21st Century
The climate is changing due to natural causes and mankind's industrialization ethos. Global warming is a reality that will threaten health, life and security that must be dealt with now.
1. The Sustainable Innovation will become one of the largest global markets of the 21st century as the public's awareness about the risks to the environment heighten
2. CleanTech, is becoming one of the largest global industries as the public's desire to create a more environmentally sustainable world grows in popularity.
3. Climate change will become a strategically important global trend to consumers, business and nations as threats to health, life, property and security grow more profound in the 21st century.
4. Global warming from carbon energy sources such as coal, gas and oil dominance as well as natural causes, will lead to increased threats of extreme weather changes such as glacial melting, shoreline flooding, widespread drought and drastic climate shifts.
5. Food production supplies will not keep pace with growing population demand especially in Asia, Africa and Latin America without new solutions to production and distribution.
6. A new collaboration with the totality of nations, citizens and corporations must be forged, to both protect global sustainability and prevent future ecologic destruction
7. Global climate change will become linked to future public health and safety risks.
8. Security and defense implications of climate change will emerge as one of the leading social and political issues of the 21st century.
9. The Green Corporation will become the gold standard adopted by business as the environmental management becomes a social responsibility issue that affects consumer purchasing
10. Ecological disasters, on a scale not seen before, are likely as climate change becomes a global public policy issue.
The Top Ten Energy Trends for the 21st Century
Energy is a metaphor for the future economic mobility of the world. Deep changes are coming. Energy is mission-essential to the growth, social stability and security of all nations. Oil overdependence and petro-fuel decline offer the world an incentive towards the discovery of renewable energy.
1. Global demand for energy in the near future will outpace supply within twenty-five years unless new sources are found to support global growth.
2. Energy terrorism and theft will become a future weapon of choice, threatening global peace and security.
3. Energy, being linked to all vital services such as health, food, transportation and commerce will be a key driver of future global business.
4. Clean, renewable energy sources such as solar, hydrogen and wind will be essential for future productivity.
5. Oil-dominated energy is politically and economically unsustainable as a reliable source of fuel for the future. Although oil reserves are in supply decline and increasingly costly, oil will continue to play an important role in the 21st century.
6. GDP, growth and productivity will decline if new and cost-effective non- oil energy sources are not found fast to protect future growth and prosperity, and to help rebalance the future of the world.
7. New sources of renewable abundant and cost-effective energy must be fast developed within 20-30 years to manage the population's expectations of enhanced quality of life worldwide.
8. Carbon based pollution, from fossil fuels, will be linked to a growing number of future public health risks.
9. Energy security will be one of the chief concerns in the 21st century leading to global competition, conflict and the collaboration of nations and corporations.
10. Exciting new energy frontiers are emerging such as nanotechnology which will offer promising alternatives to traditional sources of energy in the future. [173]

« CHAPTER 6 »
THE MESSAGE

People with a vested interest in the fossilized Past will attempt to criticize the messenger rather than learn from the message.

« CHAPTER 6 »
ANSWERED QUESTIONS?

Are we presently making the FUTURE a THING OF THE PAST?

What is the current rate of acquiring knowledge? That is, What is the current rate of scientific knowledge doubling?

« CHAPTER 7 »
EPILOGUE

The German philosopher, Friedrich Wilhelm Nietzsche, reiterates that if we change the present we can change the future, and if we change the future — as well as the way we proactively and qualitatively envision and practice it through futuristic scenario methods — we will be changing the present in fact and taking increasing control over the negative circumstances that impact us so dramatically.

In actuality, we must change both the PRESENT and the FUTURE simultaneously. The PRESENT’s vested interest into the FUTURE is too huge not to note it immediately. Nietzsche, thereby, stated exactly: “It’s our future that lays down the law of our today.” [110]

It now becomes opportune Freeman Dyson’s sentence: “God is what mind becomes when it has passed beyond the scale of our comprehension.” [128]

The FUTURE will, nonetheless, unveil the most ambitious and extravagant hopes crystallized into bewildering, new full immersion realities.

Thinking actionable “Big Picture” will never suffice since this image is fixed. Instead: It is about carrying on perennially fluidly radiant thinking irradiantly through quite a few big/small motion pictures.

Even with the most beneficial UPSIDES from the FUTURES, not to mention their inherent yet controllable — to some extent — DOWNSIDES, it will be a huge existential error not to identify the diverse facets embedded in that timeless yet incessantly and incessantly arrhythmically, abruptly transmutating in-flux-ing locus known as “FUTURES”.

The PRESENT is more like Antonio Machado’s sentence (“The one that has for all time returned and has never gone anywhere.”) while the FUTURE is S-H-A-Z-A-M (“The wisdom of Salomon, the stamina of Atlas, the power of Zeus, the courage of Achilles, and the speed of Mercury.”). Most certainly then the benchmarks (yardsticks) to ethical and moral values will certainly shift in a fundamental way.

Clearly, in order for you to identify something significant and rendering a solution, you must acknowledge every complexity, every intricacy, every dynamics and every challenge without getting paralyzed through the analyzes, especially the most crucial analyzes to a great degree from the qualitative stand.

Thereinafter, keeping you reflecting via your own biological “search engine” seeking to test, validate, and falsify evidence in the ground and on the fly, there has now come unquestionably urgent time for boldest and shrewd yet integrity-driven execution.

While the PRESENT operates stubbornly and with eyes grabbed by remnants of fossilized and finite vestiges, the FUTURE is endlessly within and along the lines of the claim made by James Madison, USA’s 4th President (1751 - 1836): “Knowledge must forever correct ignorance.”

Check out Peter Drucker’s wisdom: “Knowledge has to be improved, challenged, and increased constantly, or it vanishes.” [193]

Nonetheless, the more knowledge and sophistication within said knowledge, the more lack of education and cognition we have even among the least unprivileged sectors. In fact knowledge doubling and trebling have become in ignorance trebling and quadrupling to say the least.

The negative growth of “ignorance of supine ignorance” is in a direct yet amplified proportion with the generation and generator of valuable knowledge contents.

What is the role of education? Is that education’s role a perpetual one?

Louis V. Gerstner, Jr. was a prominent IBM Chairman and CEO always considered in every industry a savvy manager with lots of sophistication.

In 2009 I saw via Bloomberg TV and interview by Judy Woodruff to Lou Gerstner. It seems to me that Mr. Gerstner is a very reflective executive accustomed to solving complex problems (“advanced problems”). He indicated that the “West” has chosen not to reform public policies in education for the past thirty (30) years. It is about to be thirty-one (31) years with the same powerless status quo concerning the “problems” indicated by Gerstner.

Gerstner also pointed out that this particular challenge has been in the discussions agenda of every politician, but nothing at all has happened pertaining to improving education as a major and decisive challenge for society, especially when everyone feels and acts like an “incumbent” of the “Society of Knowledge” (that also embraces the “infotech economy”). Lots of wealth and economic power has been translated to the East, has it not? It’s the largest hunger for knowledge and education with the East kids?

It’s clear that Mr. Gerstner is an outright believer that humanity’s problems begin with insurmountable ignorance and therefore the most advanced and the most efficacious and refined education cannot be stopped. To the moment, it seems that people believe that by having a cellular phone or a DSL connection to the PC will replace the need of shaping and re-shaping, expanding and re-expanding the mind.

While in the West people are doubtful to amplify educational activities, in the Far East the challenges by the most daring knowledge discipline are seen as a privilege, enjoyment, entertainment, status, and so forth.

The PRESENT feels flooded by some unknown yet forceful competitors.

The FUTURE — has no time to futilely discuss the angels’ genders — has overcome any unthinkable breakthrough. One-hundred year old impossible endeavors of the past have been turned in industriously and habitually feasible now.

Paying attention to the FUTURE presently allows you to hijack maximum strategic value. That value comes in the form and substance of forthcoming discovering unveiled by the Royals of reverse engineering; those Royals reverse engineer anything at from the Solar System or from any exo-planetary systems independently of the locus where the Multiverse treasures them.

Speaking of the evidence, Sir Karl Popper makes extraordinary sense when he asserted: “In so far as a scientific statement speaks about reality, it must be falsifiable; and in so far as it is not falsifiable, it does not speak about reality.” [51] I really enjoy applying (in my duties) this sage’s wisdom.

I believe with the greatest strength that the PRESENT doesn’t exit AT ALL, but a pendulum kinetically interlocked yet dynamically bridging between the PAST and FUTURE. Don’t call that silliness of the folly “PRESENT” — so-called —, just call it ROGUE CONTINUUM-BESIEGED FLOWING CONTEXTS IN PASSAGES.

If you don't conceive and develop — jointly with your manageable and controllable UPSIDES and DOWNSIDES — your own FUTURES, Who is it going to do it for you? Really?

« CHAPTER 7 »
CAVEAT

Are incumbents using sufficient discipline before the as-of-now futures besieging the present?

Richard Buckminster Fuller (1895 – 1983): “...There are very few men today who are disciplined to comprehend the totally integrating significance of the 99 percent invisible activity which is coalescing to reshape our future. There are approximately no warnings being given to society regarding the great changes ahead. There is only the ominous general apprehension that man may be about to annihilate himself. To the few who are disciplined to deal with the invisibility integrating trends it is increasingly readable in the trends that man is about to become almost 100 percent successful as an occupant of the universe...” [178]

Capturing the benefits of all possibilities stemming from the future, as well as turning threats, perils and hazards — several of them existential ones —, will largely depend on THE TOTALITY OF HUMANKIND taking unprecedented and immediate countermeasures in tackling numerous and intensely dramatic global crises with sustained success.

I am referring not to “fashionable” success appropriation ever-lacking the womb-to-tomb scrutinizing vista and marshaled consideration pertaining to: (a) Factors considering our own sworn existential rivals, and (b) Other agents competing against our efforts to “stay alive Earthly and with dignity” — that is, if the Universe and the Multiverse warrant their sovereign permission — as we effect our efforts to countering said global crises (please remember — for your pondering, reflections and meditation — the over-empowered “global crisis of corruption,” greatly downplayed even after ignoring its immemorial existence). Without an absolute observance of the indicated in this paragraph, any “preaching” of “success capturing” will secure universal failure.

“Global Crisis of Universal Corruption: A Microscopic View to a Macroscopic Problem!,” slide available at http://slidesha.re/cKez6Y

We must establish universal acceptance of the greatest axiom of all times pertaining to the subject matter to be dealt with now.

Said axiom establishes: “...An ounce of prevention is worth millions of dollars of cure...” In the West we are unquestionably super-succeeding at over-working at the “cure” while maximizing the ignoring of the “prevention.”

I hope that Earth and “earthians” (paraphrasing notable and most lucid Richard Buckminster Fuller) does not learn in hindsight — but in earliest and sophisticated foresight and far-sight — the savviest lesson from non-insurance and “applied omniscience” driven Risk Management that I contemplate, in my case and as per my own proprietary method, call “Transformative And Integrative Risk Management.” (http://slidesha.re/c6GC0C)

Dr. Stephen Hawking has re-iteratively suggested the world’s civilization to move out of Earth by spreading in outer space with little success. View Dr. Hawking interviewed by Mr. Charlie Rose at http://bit.ly/9wPlQ7

Where the absence of fundamentals is life-to-death serious?

Futurist Gerald Celente: “…[people in] the government … they don’t have the intelligence, they don’t have the knowledge.” [186]

Extraterrestrial Civilizations, Multiverse Diaspora and Robotics?

Ray Kurzweil: “WE HAVE TO MOVE OFF THE PLANET … TO EXPAND BEYOND THE EARTH … BY SENDING ROBOTIC DEVICES.” [177]

In learning more about this aspect, it is recommended the visiting of Queen Elizabeth’s top-notch scientist (“Astronomer Royal”), Sir Martin Rees (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sir_Martin_Rees), published a textbook titled “Our Final Hour: A Scientist's Warning by Martin J. Rees” (ISBN-10: 0465068634), available at http://amzn.to/cxl6Hi
Additional research on the subject matter, addressing the gravest existential UPSIDES may be founded authored by George Orwell, Richard Buckminster Fuller, Bertrand Russell and even Albert Einstein, among many others. Have you seen the Einstein-Russell manifesto?
As supporting audio documents to further assess the Caveat here described, the undersigned will offer the following audios accordingly. At < http://bit.ly/i3Jkb3>, Dr. Stephen Hawking speaks about the Largest Questions To Any Civilization.
Sir Martin Rees, a notorious Cambridge University cosmologist and professor, as well as the acting scientist to the English Crown, has his audio on the “caveat” at < http://bit.ly/e9bXm6 > and < http://bit.ly/f01DOr> His book, “Our Final Hour: A Scientist's Warning,” by Martin J. Rees can be acquired at http://amzn.to/ebwwYT

Dr. Nick Bostrom, Ph.D. (Oxford University) clarifies concept and considerations about “Existential Risks.” See it at http://goo.gl/GONN6

The Einstein-Russell Manifesto ensues: “...In view of the fact that in any future world war nuclear weapons will certainly be employed, and that such weapons threaten the continued existence of mankind, we urge the governments of the world to realize, and to acknowledge publicly, that their purpose cannot be furthered by a world war, and we urge them, consequently, to find peaceful means for the settlement of all matters of dispute between them...” [132]

In no way am I neither a herald of devastation nor an optimist in the tradition of Dr. Pangloss. I am utterly a reasonable realistic at any cost. [49].

I do research (under absolute consistency and congruency with all of my public claims), with ever-increasing rigor, depth and scope, an important number of driving forces affecting our lives.

I am not outside realism but I will never avoid facing reality in its entirety regardless of how daring it becomes.

Thus one can assert with certitude that I am cautiously hopeful, especially as I observe the challenge and conceive solutions. In my frame of reference and as per my scale, I work through them strongly and hopefully smartly. If one thinks I am a person of theories only, he hasn’t seen me solving complex problems (“advanced problems”). Those I undertake I solve.

I abide by the unknown adage, “...The harder I work, the lucky I get...” [eventually and hopefully]. Simon Bolivar proclaimed, “...God grants victory to the persevering...” [129]

It is opportune to make a distinction. So-called “trends” are the manifestation of driving forces’ interpretation by a given party. Trends are a function of driving forces and not the other way around. Trends are also a function of the interpretation by the person observing (directly and/or indirectly) said driving forces.

There are some “prominent” scientists that believe that the term “trend” is synonymous with “driving force.” Again, another critical existential blunder that blurs our vision. Trends are summations of the driving forces. If we’re really going to get into pervasive root analysis, we must know that the “cause” — so to speak — that is represented by the DRIVING FORCES while the “consequence” — so to speak — is represented by the laggards’ “trends” — so called.

Even by Dr. Bertrand Russell’s proclaim (“...I know more people who prefer to die than to think...”) [3], we must anyway create preconditions and conditions readily and steadfastly for everyone to get more immersed into the constructive and yet breakthrough thinking side of the equation than in the self-destructing one. The flawed, folly, ill, ignorant and evil, as well as the undiagnosed sick, make it a gargantuan challenge.

The behavior and the patterns of such behavior by the reading offered by time’s pendulum and the metronome, as well as other “measurers,” are beyond worst chaos.

Facing daring FUTURES, we must become (FIRST) patternists and, as per my Oxford Dictionary’s standards and own utter mention, we must each be (and SECOND) the “monster of omniscience.” [50] All of the former ad verbum and at vitam.

In getting a more ample and robust view of said “caveat,” I suggest the additional reading provided by the Scientific American and Sir Martin Rees’ book respectively at http://slidesha.re/9P3hGr and http://slidesha.re/djcqNJ

« CHAPTER 7 »
“THE HOPE”

(By William Faulkner, Nobel Prize
acceptance speech, December 10, 1950)

“...I decline to accept the end of man. It is easy enough to say that man is immortal simply because he will endure: that when the last ding-dong of doom has clanged and faded from the last worthless rock hanging tideless in the last red and dying evening, that even then there will still be one more sound: that of his puny inexhaustible voice, still talking. I refuse to accept this. I believe that man will not merely endure: he will prevail. He is immortal, not because he alone among creatures has an inexhaustible voice, but because he has a soul, a spirit capable of compassion and sacrifice and endurance. The poet’s, the writer’s, duty is to write about these things. It is his privilege to help man endure by lifting his heart, by reminding him of the courage and honor and hope and pride and compassion and pity and sacrifice which has been the glory of his past. The poet’s voice need not merely be the record of man, it can be one of the props, the pillars to help him endure and prevail...” [52]

« CHAPTER 7 »
TURNING HOPE INTO ACTIONS

On the future of global citizenship and seeking to make earth viable and sustainable, Tichy makes the ensuing considerations:

“...I want to end this chapter with some personal reflections on global corporate citizenship and what I see for the future. The challenges for all of us, especially those in senior leadership roles in business, have gone exponentially. The events of 9/11 and the ongoing war on terrorism have created a new world playing field. It is one that, I believe, makes it a business imperative to lead in new ways. A way must be found to turn the uncertainty and chaos of the world — the multiple ethnic wars, the global terrorism — into a sustainable, just, and growing global economy...”

He continues:

“...As if the challenge of building Teaching Organizations within institutions the size of General Electric, 3M, Home Depot, or Yum! Brands weren’t enough, the leaders within institutions now need to reach out and engage the larger communities within which these institutions operate in Virtuous Teaching Cycles...”

In addition, Tichy furthers his comments:

“...The long-term well-being of the world requires a global war on poverty, one aimed at creating new opportunities for more and more of the planet’s more than 6 billion inhabitants. At the most fundamental level, this means making food, health care and education available for an ever expanding proportion of the world’s population. If we don’t do this, we risk that the vicious cycle of poverty will result in misery, ethnic strife and terrorism. As Peter Drucker points out, this century is the one that will — or should — finally bring enlightenment and opportunity to the majority of humankind...”

He points out too:

“...I endorse Drucker’s belief that a business leader’s obligation is not just to direct stakeholders in his or her organization — i.e. investors, employees, customers, suppliers, the immediate community — but also to the wider community at large. After all, this is enlightened self-interest...”

Tichy continues:

“...On a cosmic scale, the global environment, the global economy, and the physical and financial well-being of people affect a company’s performance — people need disposable incomes to buy the things that most companies are selling. If they don’t have that, and if they are rioting in the streets or becoming terrorists because they feel disfranchised, this is very bad for business. Likewise, if we kick of the planet, business is not going to do well, either...”

And Tichy adds:

“...But this is a ridiculously broad argument, and further, it isn’t realistic to think that any company is going to save the world. Nonetheless, companies need to be corporate citizens. They must not only ‘do no harm,’ they must actively do their part toward improving and maintaining the health of the global community...”

Tichy carries on with the ensuing:

“...It is our obligation of leaders to have a TPOV [that is, 'Teachable Point of View'] on how to engage their corporation as entities and to encourage the people who work in them to be good citizens. The specific steps that a leader or a company takes may seem small or like totems, but no matter how limited the impact, they do make a contribution. And small initial steps can lead people to significant lifelong commitments...”

And, in closing these comments by Tichy, he finally indicates:

“...Virtuous Teaching Cycles are a great vehicle for citizenship activities. They allow people from very disparate worlds to engage with one another in teaching and learning — which is how things are going to get better...” [42]

« CHAPTER 7 »
HOW TO COPE WITH CENTURY TWENTIETH ONE!

Learn a challenging lesson quickly:

To be a conscientiously human being into deep, subtle, and proactive awareness, you need to entertain some form of profound spirituality understanding that the greatest wealth is that of the spirit and the enlightened mind (those splendid intangibles).

Once you do your own most conscientious awareness for Life, you can increasingly do your morality and ethics for said Life.

Once you do your morality and ethics, you can do your actionable knowledge.

In order to capture ever-updatable and perpetually amplifiable as well as actionable knowledge, you and only you must challenge yourself intellectually as if you were competing with your strongest opponent.

If you really wish to immerse your mind into the perspective of the applied all-knowingness, you most make the greatest effort — in a sustained mode — towards actionable and applicable omniscience (http://bit.ly/ceJOns), chiefly with the perspective attached by the most sophisticated exact sciences.

Once you do your intellect, knowledge, and science, you can lucidly conceive your lucrative futures for the so-called and lamentable “heres and nows.”

When your futures are done, conceived, visualized, and developed way in advance, foresight, and far-sight by you, you can then do your upside and downside risks.

When risks and competing rivals are done solely by you optimally, you can do your benefits.

Your risks and competing rivals get much better done when you consider lavish provisions for contingency planning under the rigor and vigor of mentioned omniscience.

Now you know — complete the entirety of this process throughput systematically, systemically, holistically (thus exercising a global management perspective), and without ignoring a single step mentioned above — how to proceed in seizing success in personal, professional, organizational, and societal life.

Can you now commence your own development, by and for yourself, of self-improvement and/or self-betterment?

« CHAPTER 7 »
WHAT ARE THE TYPES OF THINKING THAT JOINTLY AND SIMULTANEOUSLY MUST BE EXERCISED TO FIRST GUESS THE FUTURE RIGHT IN THE THIRD MILLENNIUM?

Quickly stated and when invoking THINKING — as per the undersigned — it is succinctly to say and DO (that is) by way of matter-of-fact example:

(Modes of Thinking, ensuing:)

“Terra Incognita” Thinking
Weird Science's Thinking
“Einsteinian Gedanke” Thinking
Ecological Thinking
Factory Thinking
Surprise-Free Thinking
Through-Paradoxes Thinking
Qualitative Thinking
Quantitative Thinking
Unconventionally-Uncommon Thinking
Weirdo’s Thinking
“Rara Avis” Thinking
Gestalt Thinking
“Edisonian research” Thinking
Epidemiologic Thinking
Entomological Thinking
Fuzzy-Logic Thinking
Non-Linear Thinking
Scenario-Method Thinking
Unconventional Thinking
Unorthodox Thinking
“À la Quantum Mechanics” Thinking
“A Priori” Thinking
“A Posteriori” Thinking
“A Cappella” Thinking
Peripheral Thinking
Epicentric Thinking
Multi-Level Thinking
Capellist Thinking
Pluri-Filter Thinking
Multidimensional Thinking
Cross-Functional Thinking
Trans-Contextual Thinking
Cross-Referenced Thinking
“Against the whole cliche of the moment” Thinking
“Against Sloppy, Emotional” Thinking
“Against Fashionable” Thinking
“Against Inexpensive” Thinking
In-Advance Thinking
Early-On Thinking
“Post Mortem” Thinking
“Pre Mortem” Thinking
Forensic Thinking
Pre-Forensic Thinking
“Short-Term and Long-Term” Thinking
Preemptive Thinking
Counter-Intuitiveness Thinking
Womb-to-tomb Thinking
Unthinkable Thinking
Undreamed-of Thinking
Un-daydreamed-of Thinking
Heterodox Thinking
Un-Commonsensical Thinking
Illogicality Thinking
Throughput Thinking
Multi-Perspective Thinking
Pseudo-Serendipitous Thinking
“Pre Mortem” Thinking
Pre-“Post Mortem” Thinking
“Primum nocere” Thinking
“Primum non nocere” Thinking
Cosmological Thinking
Comprehensive Thinking
Interdisciplinary Thinking
Exploratory Thinking
Naturalist Thinking
Preter-Naturalist Thinking
Spacewalk Thinking
Discontinuous-Progression Thinking
Exuberant Thinking
“Applied Omniscience Knowledge” Thinking
Hyper-Geometrical Thinking
Dense Thinking
Multi-tasking Thinking
In-Series Thinking
In-Parallel Thinking
Microscopic Thinking
Macroscopic Thinking
Telescopic Thinking
Engineering Thinking
Re-Engineering Thinking
“Overhauled Re-Engineering” Thinking
Systems Thinking
Throughout Thinking
“Alpha and Omega” Thinking
Composite Thinking
Aggregated Thinking
Compounded Thinking
Parenthetical Thinking
Inventor’s Thinking
Discoverer’s Thinking
Harmonic Thinking
Counter-seeing Thinking
Counter-envisioning Thinking
Multi-Range Thinking
Pluri-Intent Thinking
GPS Thinking
Sonar Thinking
Radar Thinking
Hummingbird Thinking
Horse-seeing Thinking
Helicopter Thinking
Submarine Thinking
Matrix-Management Thinking
Interconnected Thinking
Submarine Thinking
Interdependency Thinking
Forethought Thinking
Hindsight Thinking
Multifaceted Thinking
Wholeness Thinking
“Continuous Improvement and Innovation” Thinking
Alternatives-Exploring Thinking
System-wide Thinking
“Support Learning and Change” Thinking
Specificity Thinking
Multimedia-vision Thinking
“Out-There” Thinker’s Thinking
Road-map Thinking
“Creative Destruction” Thinking
Reverse-Engineering Thinking
Critical Thinking
Sense-of-urgency Thinking
See-through-the-strategy-soonest Thinking
Armed-with-information Thinking
“Shrinking resources and precious little time” Thinking
“Facilitate the expanded involvement of practitioners” Thinking
Nondelegate Thinking
Nuance Thinking
“Amplest Nuance” Thinking
“Most Focused Nuance” Thinking
Constructive-Feedback Thinking
“Numerical data-driven” Thinking
“Narrative data-driven” Thinking
Self-upgrading Thinking
Coextensive Thinking
Non-coextensive Thinking
Boundarylessness Thinking
Convex Thinking
Concave Thinking
Ostracized Thinking
Non-proforma Thinking
Continuum Thinking
Continuous Thinking
Asynchronous Thinking
Interdepartmental Thinking
Intradepartmental Thinking
Omnidepartmental Thinking
Nondepartmental Thinking
Multi-level Thinking
Multi-scale Thinking
Multi-nuance Thinking
Multi-context Thinking
Omni-perspective Thinking
Pluri-“Mental-Filter” Thinking
Contemplative Thinking
Ostracized-out Thinking
Ostracized-in Thinking
“Dynamic Complexity” Thinking
“Detail complexity” Thinking
“Self-Enculturated into Science, Engineering and Systems” Thinking
“Senior medical intensivist” Thinking
“Senior military surgeon” Thinking
“Intensive care medical director” Thinking
“Comparative-performance knowledge” Thinking
“Competitive-performance knowledge” Thinking
Continual-analysis Thinking
Never-ending Thinking
Paradigm-shift Thinking
Fundamental-change Thinking
Religiosity Thinking
Non-religiosity Thinking
Pluralist Thinking
“Brain preparedness in advance” Thinking
“Grapple with complexity” Thinking
Singularist Thinking
Scenarist Thinking
Innovist Thinking
Breakthroughist Thinking
Creativist Thinking
Dynamicist Thinking
“God-less uncertainty” Thinking
Multiple-angles Thinking
The “eye in the sky” Thinking
MRI Thinking
fMRI Thinking
Cross-over Thinking
“Forced rethinking” Thinking
“Preventative actions” Thinking
“Any preventive or corrective actions” Thinking
“A systematic, systemic, global, all-inclusive approach” Thinking
“All at once” Thinking
Outmaneuvering Thinking
Pantologic Thinking
Aristotelian Thinking
Kantian Thinking
Neo-Kantian Thinking
Hegelian Thinking
Darwinian Thinking
Panto-morphic Thinking
Panto-amorphous Thinking
Einsteinian Thinking
Da-Vincian Thinking
Geistesgeschichte Thinking
Newtonian Thinking
Galilean Thinking
Copernican Thinking
Socratic Thinking
Archimedean Thinking
Freudian Thinking
Gothenian Thinking
Feynmanian Thinking
Nietzschean Thinking
Herculean Thinking
Collateral Thinking
“Nuanced Insight” Thinking
“Timeless-age mentality” Thinking
Athematic Thinking
Anathema Thinking
“Pandora box” Thinking
Continuum-besieged Thinking
“Transcend biological limitations” Thinking
“Deep insights into the future” Thinking
“Tour de Force” Thinking
Thought-Provoking Thinking
Continuous-Dialogue Thinking
“Catch-as-catch-can mode” Thinking
Historically-disrupted Thinking
Liberation Thinking
Liberating Thinking
Revelation Thinking
Sneak-preview Thinking
Nitty-gritty Thinking
Informed-conjecture Thinking
Digital-entanglement Thinking
Informed-conjecture Thinking
Digital-entanglement Thinking
Controversialist Thinking
Intrinsically-inquisitive Thinking
Inwardly-focus Thinking
Outwardly-focus Thinking
Interlinked Thinking
Conjectural Thinking
Swarm Thinking
Check-and-balance Thinking
Joint-Vision Thinking
Disparate-Vision Thinking
Garden-variety Thinking
Non garden-variety Thinking
Escapist Thinking
Contortionist Thinking
Mobile Thinking
Paradox-engendering Thinking
Non-traditionalist Thinking
Non-vacuous Thinking
Entirely Thinking
Inevitable Thinking
Avoidable Thinking
Voidable Thinking
Optimal Thinking
Sub-optimal Thinking
Inessential Thinking
Inconsequential Thinking
Ineffectual Thinking
Tangential Thinking
Implausible Thinking
Politicalization Thinking
Non-politicalization Thinking
Numericalization Thinking
Non-numericalization Thinking
Logician Thinking
Non-logician Thinking
Polynesian Thinking
Non-Polynesian Thinking
Hawaiian Thinking
Non-Hawaiian Thinking
Forceful rethinking Thinking
Full orbed Thinking
Jack-of-all-trades Thinking
Jack-of-all-trades’ applied omniscience Thinking
“Comfort before paradoxes” Thinking
“The sheer-to-peer scale” Thinking
Rapid-shift Thinking
Swirling-shift Thinking
Revolving-shift Thinking
Chaotic-shift Thinking
Age-old Thinking
“Unforeseeable future” Thinking
Sameness-less Thinking
Sharp-observation Thinking
Ahead-of-time Thinking
“Technically trained” Thinking
Across-the-board Thinking
Unimaginable Thinking
A broad, womb-to-tomb Thinking
Virtually unimaginable Thinking
“Freak” Thinking
Freakish Thinking
Rare Thinking
“Near Impossible” Thinking
“Unheard of” Thinking
Completeness Thinking
Unforeseeable-futures Thinking
Sameness-less Thinking
Sharp-observation Thinking
Totally unexpected thinking
Entirely counter-to-everything Thinking
An all-inclusive-plan Thinking
“Every needle out of the haystack” Thinking
In-flow, rich views Thinking
Fancy Thinking
“Act in concert for a common purpose” Thinking
Beforehand Thinking
Forethought Thinking
Forejudged Thinking
Foreconscious Thinking
Foreordained Thinking
Forensic Thinking
Pre-forensic Thinking
Sterling Thinking
Recursive Thinking
“Recursive Self-Improvement” Thinking
Quickening Thinking
Utopian Thinking
Millenarist Thinking
Non-Millenarist Thinking
Ideation Thinking
“Non vestigial” Thinking
Versatilist Thinking
Orchestrating Thinking
Innovation-generating Thinking
Interactive Thinking
Theoretical Thinking
Practical Thinking
Computational Thinking
Designing Thinking
Evaluating Thinking
Knowledgist Thinking
Grammatical Thinking
Ungrammatical Thinking
Unfamiliar Thinking
Unfashionable Thinking
Unfrequented Thinking
Disembroiled Thinking
Disenchanted Thinking
Disencumbered Thinking
Extrinsic Thinking
Intrinsic Thinking
Extroverted Thinking
Introverted Thinking
Introspection Thinking
Tribalist Thinking
Globalist Thinking
Championing Thinking
Editorial Thinking
Spearheading Thinking
Sweat-earned Thinking
Effortless Thinking
Cutting-edge Thinking
Next-level Thinking
Wondrous Thinking
Gifted Thinking
Tireless Thinking
Fighting-the-future Thinking
Fervid thinking
Synergistic Thinking
Sleepless Thinking
Empowerment Thinking
Impact Thinking
“Deeply entrenched” Thinking
Priceless Thinking
Painless Thinking
Comprehensive Thinking
Cradle-to-graveyard Thinking
Cradle-to-afterworld Thinking
Cradle-to-afterlife Thinking
Cumulative Thinking
The island-of-excellence-in-a-sea-of-mediocrity Thinking
Inarguable Thinking
Self-evident Thinking
Peripheral Thinking
Enduring Thinking
Trustworthy Thinking
Self-reliable Thinking
Deeper Understanding Thinking
Inquisitive Thinking
Interrelated Thinking
A strict regimen of Thinking
Generative Thinking
Action-oriented Thinking
Leveraging-intellectual-capital Thinking
Capital Thinking
Concomitant Thinking
Irrevocably altered Thinking
Predominant Thinking
Distinctive Thinking
Excludable Thinking
Relative Thinking
Absolute Thinking
Compelling Thinking
Tacit Thinking
Decisive Thinking
Traversing Thinking
Codified Thinking
Leveraging Thinking
Instinctive Thinking
Difficult-to-replicate Thinking
Clearly observable Thinking
Circular Thinking
Continuously reconfigured Thinking
“Stringent quality controls” Thinking
Agile Thinking
Sequential Thinking
Simultaneous Thinking
Concomitantly-and-sequential Thinking
Constant-attention Thinking
Cooperative Thinking
Courageous Thinking
“Amazingly powerful explanatory” Thinking
“Initiative-seizing approach” Thinking
“Thought through analysis” Thinking
Surveying Thinking
Superb Thinking
Reciprocated Thinking
Cornucopia Thinking
Technical Thinking
Conceptual Thinking
Interdependency Thinking
Summarized Thinking
Inexorable Thinking
Transactional Thinking
Transformational Thinking
Outside observer’s Thinking
Electrified Thinking
Abundant Thinking
Clarifying Thinking
Combative Thinking
Life-changing Thinking
Game-changing Thinking
Defining Thinking
Decisive Thinking
Extramural Thinking
Onsite Thinking
Offsite Thinking
Nonconformist Thinking
Underlying Thinking
Litmus-test Thinking
Accomplishing Thinking
Clarified Thinking
Overlapping Thinking
Nexus Thinking
Transcending Thinking
Transcendental Thinking
Unilateral Thinking
Multilateral Thinking
Well-developed Thinking
Making-it-happen Thinking
Compelling Thinking
Prioritized Thinking
Unleashing Thinking
Shared Thinking
Sharable Thinking
Uniting Thinking
United Thinking
Disunited Thinking
Amazing Thinking
Clarifying Thinking
Committed Thinking
Uncompromised Thinking
Flying Thinking
On-the-fly Thinking
Irrefutable Thinking
Irreproachable Thinking
Irresistible Thinking
Resolute Thinking
Irreplaceable Thinking
Irrepressible Thinking
Retentive Thinking
Irrevocable Thinking
Sequential Thinking
Modeling Thinking
Pathfinding Thinking
Aligning Thinking
Empowering Thinking
Bottom-line Thinking
Iroquois Thinking
“Flexible changeness” Thinking
Extrapolating Thinking
Guiding Thinking
Interesting Thinking
Intersecting Thinking
Curious Thinking
Anticipated Thinking
Cascading Thinking
Realigning Thinking
Demanding Thinking
“Sacred Cow” Thinking
Overriding Thinking
Superseding Thinking
Nurturing Thinking
Overarching Thinking
Rewarding Thinking
Contrasting Thinking
Helpful Thinking
Useful Thinking
Leveraging Thinking
Foundational Thinking
Training Thinking
Coaching Thinking
Formalized Thinking
Maverick Thinking
Utopian Thinking
Dystopian Thinking
Resilient Thinking
Fragmented Thinking
Newness-mired Thinking
Flourishing Thinking
Nourishing Thinking
“Mutual” Thinking
Multilateral Thinking
Connected Thinking
Wired thinking
Indicative thinking
Inescapable thinking
Interwoven thinking
Triage thinking
Reengaging thinking
Tremendous thinking
Nutty thinking
Carefully crafted thinking
Simplified thinking
Literal thinking
Textual thinking
Smooth thinking
Passionate thinking
Dispassionate thinking
Proximate thinking
Pressing thinking
Under-pressure thinking
Compounded thinking
Training thinking
Momentary thinking
Able thinking
Capable thinking
Appraising thinking
Power-activating thinking
Empowerment-activating thinking
Luxurious thinking
Ignited thinking
Preemptive Thinking
Threshold Thinking
Litigation Thinking
Litigating Thinking
A bone-deep Thinking
Humane Thinking
Humanitarian Thinking
Servant Thinking
Monarchical Thinking
Stewardship Thinking
Reverent Thinking
Caring Thinking
Service Thinking
Contribution Thinking
Loyal Thinking
Faithful Thinking
Dedicated Thinking
Rededicated Thinking
Reinvented Thinking
Mentored Thinking
Tutored Thinking
Avocation Thinking
Vocational Thinking
Future-susurration Thinking
Reverenced Thinking
Ostensible Thinking
Retrospective Thinking
Prospective Thinking
Impregnated-with-higher-purposes-and-principles Thinking
Service-above-all Thinking
Flexible Thinking
Resilient Thinking
Stoic Thinking
Adaptive Thinking
Cumulative Thinking
Incremental Thinking
Discontinuous Thinking
Linking Thinking
Missing-link Thinking
Pedagogical Thinking
Tolerated Thinking
Intolerable Thinking
Sound Thinking
Substantial Thinking
Enduring Thinking
Situational Thinking
Salient Thinking
Shaped Thinking
Ever-shaping Thinking
Proprietary Thinking
Broad Thinking
Fertile Thinking
Well-defined Thinking
Videorecording Thinking
Stimulated Thinking
Booming Thinking
Helical Thinking
Synthetic Thinking
Widespread Thinking
Well-positioned Thinking
Diversified Thinking
Dominant Thinking
Avid Thinking
Divergent Thinking
Finely detailed Thinking
Transverse Thinking
Forerunning Thinking
Marvel’s Thinking
Precision Thinking
Self-threading Thinking
Smooth Thinking
Experimental Thinking
Contrasting Thinking
Astute Thinking
Precise Thinking
Consequential Thinking
Lengthy Thinking
De facto Thinking
Dense Thinking
“Learning by trying” Thinking
Ambitious Thinking
Inspirational Thinking
Instantaneous Thinking
Underpinning Thinking
Continuous-flow Thinking
Ecoimagination Thinking
Prevalent Thinking
Focal Thinking
Savvy Thinking
Operatic Thinking
World-flattening Thinking
Cooperative Thinking
Turbulent Thinking
Manifested Thinking
Seasoned Thinking
Management-level Thinking
Excelled Thinking
Unique Thinking
Unison Thinking
Long-range Thinking
Scrutiny Thinking
Diplomatic Thinking
Inner Thinking
Innermost Thinking
Dexterous Thinking
Skillful Thinking
Competent Thinking
Efficacious Thinking
Tight-rope Thinking
“A bird’s-eye-view” Thinking
Thinking à la “Einsteinian Gedanke”
Rotund Thinking
Magisterial Thinking
Dignified Thinking
Indeterminacy Thinking
Universalistic Thinking
Singular Thinking
Singularitarian Thinking
Singularist Thinking
Pluralistic Thinking
Inquisitive Thinking
Manifestly aspirational Thinking
Normative Thinking
Decentralized Thinking
Centralized Thinking
Decentralized Thinking
Stylish Thinking
Distributed Thinking
A-new-set-of-beliefs Thinking
Indistinguishable Thinking
Cybermind's Thinking
Multisensory Thinking
Resplendent Thinking
Delineated Thinking
Too-creative Thinking
Far-reaching Thinking
Delineated Thinking
Delineating Thinking
Vivid Thinking
High-level Thinking
Responsive Thinking
Supportive Thinking
Compelling Thinking
Compelled Thinking
Clarified Thinking
Clarifying Thinking
Assertive Thinking
Asserting Thinking
Hard-drive Thinking
Interstellar Thinking
Cross-sectioning Thinking
Cross-sectioned Thinking
Contagious Thinking
Fast-paced Thinking
Epoch-making Thinking
Nature-choreographing Thinking
Pivotal Thinking
Immemorial Thinking
Monstrous Thinking
Precious Thinking
Double-helical Thinking
Secrets-unraveling Thinking
Master-choreographers-of-life Thinking
Reductionist Thinking
Impenetrable Thinking
Cross-fertilization Thinking
Cross-pollination Thinking
Brainpower Thinking
Breathtaking Thinking
Biogeneticist Thinking
Life-extending Thinking
Colonizing Thinking
Galactic-civilization Thinking
Insurmountable Thinking
Interstellar Thinking
Planetary Thinking
Galactic Thinking
Respectable Thinking
Respected Thinking
Respectful Thinking
Thrilling Thinking
Outperforming Thinking
Reasoned Thinking
Discerned Thinking
Harmonious Thinking
Tricky Thinking
Articulated Thinking
Underlying Thinking
Reviewed Thinking
Revisionist Thinking
Careful Thinking
Clear-view Thinking
Stretched Thinking
Stretching Thinking
Intellectualized Thinking
Historical Thinking
To-the-point Thinking
First-rate Thinking
Reasoning-from-effect-to-cause Thinking
Substantive Thinking
Fulfilling Thinking
Fulfilled Thinking
Fulfillment Thinking
Formidable Thinking
“A critical eye” Thinking
High-quality Thinking
Taskmaster’s Thinking
High-powered Thinking
Solicitous Thinking
Stiff Thinking
Technological-prowess Thinking
Decided Thinking
Decisive Thinking
Incessant Thinking
Forever Thinking
For-Life Thinking
Specialist’s Thinking
Generalist’s Thinking
Totalist’s Thinking
Omnisist Thinking
Renaissance Thinking
Gaining-prominence Thinking
Adept Thinking
Sought-after Thinking
Service-minded Thinking
Organization-wide Thinking
Convincing Thinking
Embracing Thinking
Stretching Thinking
Finding Thinking
Honoring Thinking
Articulating Thinking
Seeking Thinking
Reshuffling Thinking
Keen Thinking
Prevalent Thinking
Acuity Thinking
Focusing Thinking
Changing Thinking
Revitalized Thinking
Developing Thinking
Conquering Thinking
The all-important Thinking
Iroquois Thinking
Connectedness Thinking
Un-connectedness Thinking
“Far-reaching ramifications” Thinking
“A very trained eye” Thinking
“A keen observation” Thinking
Overseeing Thinking
Nontraditional Thinking
Hard-earned Thinking
“Well-guarded secrets” Thinking
Dazzling Thinking
Generous Thinking
Thoroughness Thinking
Eagle-eyed Thinking
Impressively fair-minded Thinking
Synaptic Thinking
Unashamed Thinking
Pre-assembled Thinking
Glued Thinking
Unglued Thinking
Encoded Thinking
Enigmatic Thinking
Paterfamilias Thinking
Genealogical Thinking
Behavioral Thinking
Sculpting Thinking
Hardwired Thinking
Pre-programmed Thinking
Mathematical Thinking
Evolutionary fine-tuned Thinking
Indefatigable Thinking
Zillion-folds Thinking
A-the-outset Thinking
Forerunner Thinking
Augmented Thinking
Genetic-sequencing Thinking
Cosmological-time Thinking
Concerned-scientist Thinking
Scientific-leadership Thinking
Cyborgian Thinking
Cosmit Thinking
Futuretronium Thinking
Agglutinative Thinking
The “be-all and end-all” Thinking
Amplified-personhood Thinking
Metaphysical Thinking
Ontological Thinking
“Trans-evolutionary continuum” Thinking
Extrapolated Thinking
Introspectioinist Thinking
Extropectionist Thinking
Behaviorist Thinking
Methodological Thinking
Neurobiological Thinking
Trilogy Thinking
Tripartite Thinking
Fountainhead Thinking
Zukunftsgestaltung Thinking
Lightning-fast Thinking
Quintessentially forward-looking Thinking
Cross-disciplinary Thinking
Multi-organismic Thinking
Anatomist Thinking
Taxonomist Thinking
Full-Blown Thinking
Vertebrated Thinking
De-Vertabrated Thinking
Shapeless Thinking
Electrically-conductive Thinking
Synaptic-irrigation Thinking
Computronium-to-genome-to-cell-to-nerve-to-synapses Thinking
Sensory Thinking
Preter-sensorial Thinking
Evokative Thinking
Presynaptic Thinking
Electrical-to-chemical-to-electrical Thinking
Counterbalancing Thinking
Wondrous Thinking
Wakeful Thinking
Visual-thalamus Thinking
Uninhibited Thinking
Interneuronal Thinking
Neuromodulated Thinking
Tonically-active Thinking
Supergrid Thinking
Excitatory-surge Thinking
Gate-and-regulate Thinking
“Filtering out random excitatory impulses” Thinking
Triggering-activating Thinking
Excitatory-inputs Thinking
Chemically-neurotransmitted Thinking
Alchemically-neurotransmitted Thinking
Keeping-up-with-rapidly-changing-events Thinking
Diffuse-connections Thinking
Elongated Thinking
Preexisting Thinking
Empiricist Thinking
Genetically-driven Thinking
Nonneural Thinking
Everything-considered Thinking
Deliberative Thinking
By-and-large Thinking
Faraway Thinking
Neurogenesis Thinking
Synaptogenesis Thinking
Distal Thinking
Axonal Thinking
Instructional Thinking
Selectionist Thinking
Exuberantly wired Thinking
Influential Thinking
Parameterized Thinking
Un-parameterized Thinking
Activity-induced Thinking
Breakthrough-besieged Thinking
Multitasked Thinking
Epigenetically Thinking
The best-misunderstood form of Thinking
New-connections Thinking
Epigenetic-prewiring Thinking
Hardwired Thinking
The multiplicity of systems Thinking
Crossbred Thinking
Color-processing Thinking
Connectionist Thinking
Connectivist Thinking


How is the thinking above executed? For instance:

If Dynamicist, Innovist, Creativist, Versatilist, Futurist, Strategist, Connectivist, Linkist and Breakthroughist are genuine to themselves, truth-seeking and solving advanced problems, heightened their own practical engagement towards own boundaryless exercising of their biological computer for Life through strong sense and critico-creative systems thinking based on his / her applied omniscience bliss.

We exercised all of the “thinking” above and simultaneously to cope and thrive through situations like this:

Byron R. Wien (Chief U.S. Investment Strategist at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter — 2000): “Fifty years ago [1950] most investors suffered from a lack of useful information and approached the stock market with a certain fear because of it. Today the investment environment is overloaded with information, and a major problem facing investors is sifting the useful from the useless. Another issue is that good companies aren’t always good stocks and bad companies sometimes are profitable investments. Time is limited and we are all searching for a way to understand complex material quickly and draw conclusions from it.” [125]

« CHAPTER 8 »
REFLECTING ON THE EDUCATION WE IMMEDIATELY NEED! NAPOLEON BONAPARTE ON EDUCATION (1769 - 1821):

“…Education, strictly speaking, has several objectives: one needs to learn how to speak and write correctly, which is generally called grammar and belles letters. Each lyceum has provided for this object, and there is no well-educated man who has not learned his rhetoric .... After the need to speak and write correctly comes the ability to count and measure. The lyceums have provided this with classes in MATHEMATICS embracing arithmetical and MECHANICAL KNOWLEDGE IN THEIR DIFFERENT BRANCHES .... The elements of several other fields come next: chronology, geography, and the rudiments of history are also a part of the education of the lyceum .... A young man who leaves the lyceum at sixteen years of age thence knows not only the mechanics of his language and the classical authors, the divisions of discourse, the different figures of eloquence, the means of employing them either to calm or arouse passions, in short, everything that one learns in a course on belles letters. He also would know the principal epochs of history, the basic geographical divisions, and how to compute and measure. He has some general idea of the most striking natural phenomena and the principles of equilibrium and movement both with regard to solids and fluids .... Whether he desires to follow the career of the barrister, that of the sword, or ENGLISH, or letters; if he is destined to enter into the body of scholars, to be a geographer, engineer, or land surveyor — in all these cases he has received a general education necessary to become equipped to receive the remainder of instruction that his circumstances require, and it is at this moment, when he must make his choice of a profession, that the special studies present themselves ...”. [113]

Bonaparte indicates as well:

“… If he wishes to devote himself to the military art, engineering, or artillery, he enters a special school of MATHEMATICS, the polytechnique (institution, especially college dealing with or devoted to various TECHNICAL subjects). What he learns there is only the corollary of what he has learned in elementary mathematics, but the knowledge acquired in these studies must be developed and applied before he enters the different branches of ABSTRACT MATHEMATICS. NO LONGER IS IT A QUESTION SIMPLY OF EDUCATION, AS IN THE LYCEUM: NOW IT BECOMES A MATTER OF ACQUIRING A SCIENCE .... The total length of the course of the Artillery and ENGINEER school being fixed at two years, we must divide the course into four parts, each comprising six months of study. Students in the first class would learn: 1.- The infantry maneuvers of the platoon and battalion. 2.- The maneuvers of field and siege artillery as well as those of mortars and howitzers. 3.- Mechanical maneuvers, the composition of explosives… 4.- The principles of the attack of fortifications. 5.- The entire position of the aide-mémoire pertaining to firing, and finally. 6.- Everything necessary to the gunner and the engineer in the field .... Students will be led to the target range; they will lob bombs into the target barrel, fire blank cartridges, etc. and construct every kind of battery. They will continue their [initial] course of construction. In the third class students would pursue their STUDIES IN HYDRAULIC ARCHITECTURE, CIVIL and military. They would busy themselves with the most complicated part of construction and LEARN EVERYTHING NECESSARY to direct and superintend the construction of a fort. They would take cognizance of the details of foundries, mines, etc .... The fourth class would be dedicated to perfecting the students in the different subjects that they have been studying. They would go over all of the details of arsenals, mines, galleries, etc. — in brief, everything that would complete their instruction as engineers and gunners would belong to the curriculum of this class .... In general, in the establishment of a school for engineers and artillery one should consider the knowledge of the maneuvers of all the guns and the tactics of infantry as the principal object. When a student is admitted to the School of the Battalion, he would be forced to perform the manual of arms and the maneuvers of the battalion at least three times every ten days … It is important for the maneuvers of artillery to keep in mind that nothing is more uncertain than the art of firing. This portion of the military art is classified among the PHYSIO-MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES, yet its results are dubious; those of practice are certain. Students having completed one course in mechanics know nearly everything that they must understand and apply…” [113]

And Napoleon carries on and argues:

“…It is appropriate thereof to strive above everything else, and not as one of the foremost foundations of the instruction, to see that each student executes the manual of arms and all of the maneuvers of artillery better than a veteran soldier, that he is skilled in large practice and HAS PERFECT KNOWLEDGE of the employment of artillery. No one can be considered a good student if, upon graduation, he cannot go immediately to a battery or a siege. It is proper that upon joining his unit he should instruct a class of recruits in the maneuvers of artillery and infantry and in the mechanical maneuvers. How often do you not see officers unable to place a gun carriage, direct a mechanical maneuver, fashion explosives, and forced to take lesson from old sergeants? … When a student can aim a gun better than the soldier, no one will question either his right to advancement or the other advantages of his education. Old sergeants will not be jealous of these young officers when they never have to teach them anything.”

What was the position of a prominent Britton regarding leadership in Europe? Following:

SIR IAN HAMILTON IN 1921 ON NAPOLEON: “…It is only progressively that one can form a great army. Certainly no other commander (leader) in his day devoted as much thought and attention to organization as Napoleon, who went into painstaking detail to assure that his forces (team and resources) were disciplined, prepared, and ready to take the field (the marketplace and its competitors). The army marches, works, and has its being by organization and discipline...” [113]

WERNHER VON BRAUN ON EDUCATION, 1912 — 1977, (Father of the American Space Program):

“The average citizen today, of course, has far more scientific information at his disposal than did those greatest of intellects of earlier times. Yet paradoxically, I think that THERE HAS NEVER BEEN A GREATER NEED FOR INCREASED UNDERSTANDING AND APPRECIATION OF SCIENCE. It has been said that, although the choice of direction for our civilization will be determined through democratic process, it is there that the problem begins. TO MAKE RATIONAL CHOICES, THE AVERAGE CITIZEN MUST UNDERSTAND THE NATURE AND ROLE OF SCIENCE AT A TIME WHEN ITS BREADTH AND COMPLEXITY ARE INCREASING ALMOST EXPONENTIALLY .... Conversely, the scientist, at a time when he can barely keep up to date in his specialty, must not isolate himself in his parochial interest. Instead, he should see his profession as a part of the larger world, to evaluate himself and his work in relation to all forces, especially the humanities, which shape and advance society. THE NEED, THEN, IS FOR AN EDUCATIONAL PROCESS RESULTING IN MORE SCIENTIFIC LITERACY FOR THE LAYMAN, AND MORE LITERACY IN THE HUMANITIES FOR THE SCIENTISTS .... Man in this scientific age is free only to the extent that he has a grasp on himself and his surroundings. FREEDOM — THE ABILITY TO SPEAK, THINK, ACT, AND VOTE INTELLIGENTLY — is based largely on our ability TO MAKE CHOICES growing out of our understanding of the issues involved. With each advance of science, there is an invitation to more understanding. This is the essence of the burden borne by all peoples since the dawn of humanity. There must be widespread understanding of the role of science in modern society, both as to its limits and our dependence on its basic function as a tool for our survival. This is the imperative for scientific literacy .... How do we encourage scientific literacy? I THINK THE PROBLEM IS HOW TO INSTILL IN STUDENTS A PERMANENT DESIRE TO LEARN. All youth is endowed with curiosity from the very beginning. What can education process do, not only to keep this natural curiosity alive, but to make it a permanent part of the individual drive? .…” [114]

Dr. von Braun also includes the following comment:

“…Students should be encouraged, beyond learning facts, to be intrigued by objects and events in their environment, as well as to become aware of and responsive in a positive manner to beauty and orderliness in their environment. THEY SHOULD BE TAUGHT TO WILLINGLY SUBJECT THEIR DATA AND IDEAS TO CRITICISM OF THEIR PEERS WHILE ACQUIRING A CRITICAL, QUESTIONING ATTITUDE TOWARD INFERENCES, HYPOTHESES AND THEORIES. Early in education, they should be led to recognize the limitations of scientific modes of inquiry and the need for additional, quite different approaches to the quest for reality … ULTIMATELY, THEY SHOULD BE INSTILLED WITH AN APPRECIATION FOR THE INTERRELATEDNESS OF SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY AND SOCIETY .... This is essentially the scientific method. By learning the scientific method, students will understand its role in society and at the same time to think for themselves. LEARNING TO THINK FOR ONESELF, IN TURN, IMPARTS A DEEP SENSE OF FREEDOM. ONCE TESTED, AN APPETITE FOR IT IS FORMED WHICH MAY WELL ENDURE THROUGHOUT LIFE .... But if our young people are going to gain the appetite, our schools, our colleges, our universities, must bear an ever greater responsibility. ALL TOO MANY TIMES IN THE PAST, EDUCATION — PARTICULARLY IN THE SCIENTIFIC DISCIPLINES — HAS PLACED EXTREMELY HEAVY EMPHASIS ON TRANSMITTING THE ESTABLISHED KNOWLEDGE OF THE PAST. THERE HAS BEEN A TENDENCY FOR TEACHERS TO ASSIGN, AND TO ENCOURAGE ROTE LEARNING, INSTEAD OF TAKING THE ADMITTEDLY MORE DIFFICULT PATH OF ENCOURAGING STUDENTS TO THINK FOR THEMSELVES .... THE MAINSPRING OF SCIENCE IS CURIOSITY. SINCE TIME IMMEMORIAL, THERE HAVE ALWAYS BEEN MEN AND WOMEN WHO FELT A BURNING DESIRE TO KNOW WHAT WAS UNDER THE ROCK, BEYOND THE HILLS, ACROSS THE OCEANS. THIS RESTLESS BREED NOW WANT TO KNOW WHAT MAKES AN ATOM WORK, THROUGH WHAT PROCESS LIFE REPRODUCES ITSELF, OR WHAT IS THE GEOLOGICAL HISTORY OF THE MOON.” [114]

Why the blessed education and the learning curve?

Arie de Geus (former Director Corporate Planning of Royal Dutch Shell Group): “Learning faster than your competitors is the only sustainable competitive advantage in an environment of rapid innovation and change.” [181]

Is current education compatible with these swirling-change times?

“U.S. youth will lack future-readiness to compete in the global economy.” [182]

IN SPEAKING OF KNOWLEDGE, NOTE THE FREQUENT USE OF THE TERM BY PRESIDENT KENNEDY’S ADDRESS AT RICE UNIVERSITY ON SEPTEMBER 12, 1962:

“…We meet at a college noted for knowledge, in a city noted for progress, in a State noted for strength, and we stand in need of all three, for we meet in an hour of change and challenge, in a decade of hope and fear, in an age of both knowledge and ignorance. The greater our knowledge increases, the greater our ignorance unfolds .... Despite the striking fact that most of the scientists that the world has ever known are alive and working today, despite the fact that this Nation’s own scientific manpower is doubling every 12 years in a rate of growth more than three times that of our population as a whole, despite that, the vast stretches of the unknown and the unanswered and the unfinished still far outstrip our collective comprehension .... . This is a breathtaking pace, and such a pace cannot help but create new ills as it dispels old, new ignorance, new problems, new dangers. Surely the opening vistas of space promise high costs and hardships, as well as high reward .... If this capsule history of our progress teaches us anything, it is that man, in his quest for knowledge and progress, is determined and cannot be deterred. The exploration of space will go ahead, whether we join in it or not, and it is one of the great adventures of all time, and no nation which expects to be the leader of other nations can expect to stay behind in the race for space .... We have vowed that we shall not see space filled with weapons of mass destruction, but with instruments of knowledge and understanding .... We set sail on this new sea because there is new knowledge to be gained, and new rights to be won, and they must be won and used for the progress of all people .... .The growth of our science and education will be enriched by new knowledge of our universe and environment, by new techniques of learning and mapping and observation, by new tools and computers for industry, medicine, the home as well as the school. Technical institutions, such as Rice, will reap the harvest of these gains .... Well, space is there, and we're going to climb it, and the moon and the planets are there, and new hopes for knowledge and peace are there. And, therefore, as we set sail we ask God's blessing on the most hazardous and dangerous and greatest adventure on which man has ever embarked .... ” [115]

What haven’t the Romanic cultures fail to learn about how to make success prevail through times? Here there’s a view:

QUESTION: ARE THE ROMANIC CULTURES IN SOUR OPPOSITION WITH NAPOLEON BONAPARTE’S AND WERNHER VON BRAUN’S SUCCESS PRESCRIPTIONS?

Yes, the Romanic cultures — to an appalling and unfortunate degree (and with the notorious exception of Leonardo Da Vinci) — have this overwhelming counter feeling against Napoleon Bonaparte’ and Wernher von Braun’s Success Prescriptions. When the subject matter is addressed, the respective incumbents take it as a violation to their traditions and not as an opportunity to grow beyond any past historic consideration.

DR. MALCOLM S. KNOWLES, PH.D. AND AMERICAN AUTHOR OF “THE ADULT LEARNER: THE DEFINITIVE CLASSIC IN ADULT EDUCATION AND HUMAN RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT” WROTE ON EDUCATION:

“The greatest danger for the survival of the present civilization is neither atomic war, nor environmental pollution, nor the exploitation of natural resources, and nor present crises. The underlying cause to all of the above is the acceleration of man’s obsolescence … The only hope seems to be an electroshock program to re-instill to the current adults the competencies required to function adequately under a mode of perpetual change. This is a profound need — the immeasurable challenge — that is presented by the modern society to adult education.” [112]

On education facing massive change?

Sir Ken Robinson (2009): “Civilization, as H. G. Wells memorably said, is a race between education and catastrophe. If education is to win, we need urgently to pick up the pace of change in our schools. Most education systems around the world are being reformed. But reform is not enough. The truth is that we need a complete transformation in the principles and processes of public education. Educational transformation is what my own work has been about .... As a species and as a planet we are facing challenges that have no precedent in human history. They come in part from rapid population growth and the massive strains that our apparently insatiable appetites are putting on the world’s natural resources. They come too from the unpredictable interplay with human cultures of accelerating innovations in science and technology. Many of these challenges are the direct result of the global convulsions of the Industrial Revolution, which are still reverberating around the earth. Our generation and the ones we’re educating have to deal with these challenges, right now .... The problem is that the dominant systems of education through which we’re trying to do this are rooted in the values and methods of industrialism that created many of those challenges in the first place. Making these systems more efficient simply won’t do. In the proper sense of the word, we need a new paradigm for education .... Industrial systems of education are essentially impersonal. They emphasize conformity in the curriculum and in teaching methods and standardization in assessment. And, too often, national systems of accountability treat students as raw materials and statistics as outcomes. A high degree of wastage is taken for granted. I know I’m simplifying here, but not much. You can get some idea of how wasteful these systems are by looking at the high rates of drop out and truancy among students and of turnover among teachers, especially from secondary schools, and at the precipitous rise in prescription drug use to keep students of all ages with the programme .... What these impersonal systems overlook is that education is always, essentially and inevitably, personal. I can’t imagine there’s a child anywhere who jumps out of bed in the morning wondering what he or she can do to raise the school district’s reading sources. Students learn best if they’re engaged, interested and motivated personally and, if they’re not, they tune out and turn off. This was always true. It’s even more important to understand this now. Young people are living in the most connected, information-driven period in human history. Their facility with technology and the appetite for networking show how eager they are to learn if the conditions are right. Creating these conditions means customizing education to each school, to each community of students, teachers, staff and parents, here and now. Thinking creatively about how to personalize and customize education is what this book is really about.” [180]

The best learning by you is the one that unveils your own zones of ignorance. I have fun identifying my areas of ignorance so that I can counter them at light speed. To this end, there is a pertinent learning to exercise the soonest: When the mind is into mind preparedness, there is not a more resilient organ than the brain., If you pay the price for a long while, it will allow you to be and accomplish whatever you wish.

When will you assume the responsibility of your own empowerment?

Lucius Amaes Seneca: “Most powerful is he who has himself in his power.” [153]

IN AN ERA IN WHICH SOME RESEARCHERS CLAIM THAT KNOWLEDGE DOUBLING IS TAKING PLACE EVERY TWO TO FIVE YEARS, A CLINICAL LEADER INDICATED IN REMOTE 1995 THE ENSUING:

Dr. Kathleen Jennison Goonan, M.D.: “A second key lesson is to realize that leaders must acquire new knowledge, skills, and behaviors. For most people, implementing a successful strategy requires significant new learning. Again, this means making a personal investment of time and attention over months and years.” [91]

Why is Futuretronium an eon of pervasive knowledge via embedded in the brains of the ownership holders of intellectual capital (IC)?

Juan Enriquez: “Wealth is now based on knowledge … and how one person can generate more wealth than that produced by all people living in Israel, Malaysia, or Chile over the course of a year.” [163]

Technology, change and our children?

Juan Enriquez: “We are in a time warp. Technology accelerates trends, be they positive or negative. We are just beginning to glimpse how profoundly different our children’s lives will be in a post-genomics world.” [163]

Is there any educational imperative linked to own economics and the fast-pace driving forces?

“The simple rule is: The more education you get, the more desirable you are in the job market and the higher your potential income.” [160]

« CHAPTER 8 »
APPENDIX OF DEFINITION OF APPLIED OMNISCIENCE

Before defining “applied omniscience” for you, vastly used verbally and executions by scholars, academicians, scientist and Nobel Laureates, I will include the reflection on exactly this subject matter by a “Doctor of Science.” His name is Vernon Grose.

Dr. Vernon Grose, D.Sc..: “A primer on the development, application, and requirement of ‘systems thinking’ to obtain an ordered, global management perspective — a critical need if historical risk management is to be translated [in advance] from reaction into prevention of risk [many call risks “problems”] .... The systems approach is godlike — at least in perspective. It aims to look at any situation with OMNISCIENCE — TOTALITY OF KNOWLEDGE .... Of course, it never succeeds because of human limitations. But the goal remains. And such goal is essential if risk is to be managed effectively. Every possible risk must be considered before systematic management of risk can occur. If this seems grandiose, it isn’t meant to be. In failing to take such a lofty and all-encompassing view, managers are vulnerable to being blind-sided by an overlooked risk while believing that they have everything under control.” [99]

The unpredictable nature of Nature?

Pierre Simon de Laplace (1749 – 1827), to this object, indicates: “An intelligence that knew, for a given moment, all the forces that gave life to Nature and the respective situation of the involved constituent beings, and if in addition were sufficiently powerful to analyze all these data, he would encompass in a single formula the motion by the larger bodies in the universe and the lightest ones within the atom: there nothing would be unknown and both the past and the future would be before his eyes.” [130]

Applied Omniscience Defined By This Author:

Beginning of the Definition of Omniscience.

“Total knowledge; knowing everything … One having total knowledge … Pansophy: ‘universal knowledge or wisdom … system or work embracing all knowledge … polymath: A person of great or varied, updated learning … knowing … all-knowingness … Pantology … Possessing knowledge, information, or understanding … showing clever awareness and resourcefulness; shrewd … suggestive of secret or private knowledge … conscious … having infinite awareness, understanding, and insight … possessed of universal or complete knowledge … the omniscient narrator … a person of great and varied learning … one who has rejected authority and dogma in favor of rational inquiry and speculation under the most rigorous application of the scientific method … learning; erudition; teachers of great knowledge; one who takes advice or information from others … familiarity or awareness or understanding gained through experience, expertise and study … the sum or range of what has been perceived, discovered, learned or in the process to be unveiled through systematic and systemic (as well as before-the facts manner) knowledge creation … specific information about something … narrative and numerical data gathered and assimilated by in-depth and in-the-field research of patterns stemmed by subtle, overt and covert driving forces … the congruent and cohesive mastery of many areas of actionable learning reflected in a scholar’s work … a collection of facts and data (A man’s judgment cannot be better than the information and technocratic merits on which he has based it on) … that who constructs, coalesce expert systems … deep extensive and practicing learning … the instructed one that learns from instructing others to get further instructed … the methods, discipline, techniques and attainments via academia, personal, professional, organizational, actual solving of complex problems [“advanced problems”] and in-the-battlefield experience … extensive knowledge … infinite knowledge … convergence of all wisdoms brought into one ultimate over-wisdom with the systems approach and the applied omniscience perspective … the state or quality … of having infinite knowledge; knowing all things … universal knowledge or wisdom … a person of focus and yet great diversified learning … including in one view … everything within and beyond sight, insight, far-sight, intuitiveness, counter- intuitiveness… having infinite discerned insightfulness … a person of encyclopedic learning … ‘omni scientia’ knowledge … having learned a great degree in several unconnected fields of study and engineering … educated, knowledgeable; wise, sapient … that possessing great wisdom and sound judgment … that who has been and remains schooled by the university of ‘hard knocks’ and the ‘college of life’ … one that presume and effects that all things have not been done sufficiently optimally … a self-dealing person with his mindful and well-stomached transformation towards possessing and utilizing all-knowingness … healthy stubbornness with the lucrative nano-granularity of detail as it is pondered and marshaled through a magnitude of practical subject matters … Profound knowledge, deep knowledge, total command or mastery; specialism, specialized or special knowledge; expertise, proficiency; wide or vast or extensive knowledge, generality, general knowledge (forever updated), interdisciplinary and cross-disciplinary knowledge; implementable encyclopedic knowledge …”

And the applied omniscience definition here resumes:

“… knowing and ever-learning of all happenings in the life, research, findings and developments of a people, country, nation, commonwealth, institution, etc .... all scientific accounts of a s system of natural phenomena … eternal learning of the increasingly ‘most daring’ yet fact-driven literature … hidden knowledge, recondite knowledge … development of character and mental powers through systematic self-instruction and pervasive intellectual activities to amplify and refine and sophisticate one’s own talents, skills, dexterities and practices … including body (bodies) of knowledge of hermetic and secretive societies and associations (regardless of an Alemmanic Germanic Bavarian genesis) … hermeneutics, that is: the science of interpretation and explanation, especially the branch of theology that deals with the general principles of Biblical interpretation … helpful gnosis and productive omni-gnosis … expansionist scientific modes of inquiry and the need for additional yet quite different approaches — together with the ever-emergence and always more extended and expanded monolithic convergence of many knowledge specialties (inside and outside the realms of today’s ‘scientific truth’-based sciences), to the always-increasing quest for reality (including virtual reality), also including the search for actionable answers to questions like the origin of the Universe / Multiverse and its fortunately stunning derivatives (ruling in an stunning array of tangible and intangible sub-cosmos and sub-multiverses) as per most prominent physicists, astrophysicists and astronomers’ findings, among those of others … descriptive knowledge … domain-specific knowledge … expert knowledge … factual knowledge … implicit knowledge … un-prevalent knowledge … explicit knowledge … express knowledge … utter knowledge … prescriptive knowledge … procedure knowledge … jurisprudence knowledge … knowledge base … knowledge engineering .... knowledge re-engineering and/or re-engineered and/or overhauled… unlimited knowledge of a system, its use environments, and its risks...everything known plus full disclosure of all corresponding uncertainties as it is used in scientific work...The outputted knowledge from and by the most determined and pervasive truth-seeking effort under the maximum application of truth-seeking.”

End of the Definition of Omniscience.

« CHAPTER 8 »
THE MOST THOUGHTFUL STATEMENT BY ANY AMERICAN PRESIDENT TO DATE!

“…We choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard, because that goal will serve to organize and measure the best of our energies and skills, because that challenge is one that we are willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postpone, and one which we intend to win, and the others, too. It is for these reasons that I regard the decision last year to shift our efforts in space from low to high gear as among the most important decisions that will be made during my incumbency in the office of the Presidency...” By John F. Kennedy, Address at Rice University on the Nation's Space Effort Delivered in Houston, Texas, September 12, 1962. [55]

« CHAPTER 8 »
NASA LEWIS RESEARCH CENTER, THE OHIO AEROSPACE INSTITUTE, THE VISION-21 SYMPOSIUM AND SAN DIEGO STATE UNIVERSITY PROFESSOR VERNOR VINGE (MARCH, 1993) [63]

Beginning of literal citation of the Singularity forum and stemming article:

“Vernor Vinge
Department of Mathematical Sciences
San Diego State University

(c) 1993 by Vernor Vinge
(This article may be reproduced for noncommercial purposes if it is copied in its entirety, including this notice.)

The original version of this article was presented at the VISION-21 Symposium sponsored by NASA Lewis Research Center and the Ohio Aerospace Institute, March 30-31, 1993. A slightly changed version appeared in the Winter 1993 issue of Whole Earth Review.

Abstract (of article)
Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. Shortly after, the human era will be ended. Is such progress avoidable? If not to be avoided, can events be guided so that we may survive? These questions are investigated. Some possible answers (and some further dangers) are presented.

What is The Singularity?
The acceleration of technological progress has been the central feature of this century. I argue in this paper that we are on the edge of change comparable to the rise of human life on Earth. The precise cause of this change is the imminent creation by technology of entities with greater than human intelligence. There are several means by which science may achieve this breakthrough (and this is another reason for having confidence that the event will occur):

* There may be developed computers that are “awake” and superhumanly intelligent. (To date, there has been much controversy as to whether we can create human equivalence in a machine. But if the answer is “yes, we can”, then there is little doubt that beings more intelligent can be constructed shortly thereafter.)
* Large computer networks (and their associated users) may “wake up” as a superhumanly intelligent entity.
* Computer/human interfaces may become so intimate that users may reasonably be considered superhumanly intelligent.
* Biological science may provide means to improve natural human intellect.

The first three possibilities depend in large part on improvements in computer hardware. Progress in computer hardware has followed an amazingly steady curve in the last few decades [_S_17]. Based largely on this trend, I believe that the creation of greater than human intelligence will occur during the next thirty years. (Charles Platt [_S_20] has pointed out that AI enthusiasts have been making claims like this for the last thirty years. Just so I'm not guilty of a relative-time ambiguity, let me more specific: I'll be surprised if this event occurs before 2005 or after 2030.)

What are the consequences of this event? When greater-than-human intelligence drives progress, that progress will be much more rapid. In fact, there seems no reason why progress itself would not involve the creation of still more intelligent entities — on a still-shorter time scale. The best analogy that I see is with the evolutionary past: Animals can adapt to problems and make inventions, but often no faster than natural selection can do its work — the world acts as its own simulator in the case of natural selection. We humans have the ability to internalize the world and conduct “what if's” in our heads; we can solve many problems thousands of times faster than natural selection. Now, by creating the means to execute those simulations at much higher speeds, we are entering a regime as radically different from our human past as we humans are from the lower animals.

From the human point of view this change will be a throwing away of all the previous rules, perhaps in the blink of an eye, an exponential runaway beyond any hope of control. Developments that before were thought might only happen in “a million years” (if ever) will likely happen in the next century. (In [_S_5], Greg Bear paints a picture of the major changes happening in a matter of hours.)

I think it's fair to call this event a singularity (“the Singularity” for the purposes of this paper). It is a point where our old models must be discarded and a new reality rules. As we move closer to this point, it will loom vaster and vaster over human affairs till the notion becomes a commonplace. Yet when it finally happens it may still be a great surprise and a greater unknown. In the 1950s there were very few who saw it: Stan Ulam [_S_28] paraphrased John von Neumann as saying:

One conversation centered on the ever accelerating progress of technology and changes in the mode of human life, which gives the appearance of approaching some essential singularity in the history of the race beyond which human affairs, as we know them, could not continue.

Von Neumann even uses the term singularity, though it appears he is thinking of normal progress, not the creation of superhuman intellect. (For me, the superhumanity is the essence of the Singularity. Without that we would get a glut of technical riches, never properly absorbed (see [_S_25]).)

In the 1960s there was recognition of some of the implications of superhuman intelligence. I. J. Good wrote [_S_11]:

Let an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a machine that can far surpass all the intellectual activities of any man however clever. Since the design of machines is one of these intellectual activities, an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines; there would then unquestionably be an “intelligence explosion,” and the intelligence of man would be left far behind. Thus the first ultraintelligent machine is the _last_ invention that man need ever make, provided that the machine is docile enough to tell us how to keep it under control. ... It is more probable than not that, within the twentieth century, an ultraintelligent machine will be built and that it will be the last invention that man need make.

Good has captured the essence of the runaway, but does not pursue its most disturbing consequences. Any intelligent machine of the sort he describes would not be humankind's “tool” — any more than humans are the tools of rabbits or robins or chimpanzees.
Through the '60s and '70s and '80s, recognition of the cataclysm spread [_S_29] [_S_1] [_S_31] [_S_5]. Perhaps it was the science-fiction writers who felt the first concrete impact. After all, the “hard” science-fiction writers are the ones who try to write specific stories about all that technology may do for us. More and more, these writers felt an opaque wall across the future. Once, they could put such fantasies millions of years in the future [_S_24]. Now they saw that their most diligent extrapolations resulted in the unknowable ... soon. Once, galactic empires might have seemed a Post-Human domain. Now, sadly, even interplanetary ones are.

What about the '90s and the '00s and the '10s, as we slide toward the edge? How will the approach of the Singularity spread across the human world view? For a while yet, the general critics of machine sapience will have good press. After all, till we have hardware as powerful as a human brain it is probably foolish to think we'll be able to create human equivalent (or greater) intelligence. (There is the far-fetched possibility that we could make a human equivalent out of less powerful hardware, if we were willing to give up speed, if we were willing to settle for an artificial being who was literally slow [_S_30]. But it's much more likely that devising the software will be a tricky process, involving lots of false starts and experimentation. If so, then the arrival of self-aware machines will not happen till after the development of hardware that is substantially more powerful than humans' natural equipment.)

But as time passes, we should see more symptoms. The dilemma felt by science fiction writers will be perceived in other creative endeavors. (I have heard thoughtful comic book writers worry about how to have spectacular effects when everything visible can be produced by the technologically commonplace.) We will see automation replacing higher and higher level jobs. We have tools right now (symbolic math programs, cad/cam) that release us from most low-level drudgery. Or put another way: The work that is truly productive is the domain of a steadily smaller and more elite fraction of humanity. In the coming of the Singularity, we are seeing the predictions of _true_ technological unemployment finally come true.

Another symptom of progress toward the Singularity: ideas themselves should spread ever faster, and even the most radical will quickly become commonplace. When I began writing science fiction in the middle '60s, it seemed very easy to find ideas that took decades to percolate into the cultural consciousness; now the lead time seems more like eighteen months. (Of course, this could just be me losing my imagination as I get old, but I see the effect in others too.) Like the shock in a compressible flow, the Singularity moves closer as we accelerate through the critical speed.

And what of the arrival of the Singularity itself? What can be said of its actual appearance? Since it involves an intellectual runaway, it will probably occur faster than any technical revolution seen so far. The precipitating event will likely be unexpected — perhaps even to the researchers involved. (“But all our previous models were catatonic! We were just tweaking some parameters....”). If networking is widespread enough (into ubiquitous embedded systems), it may seem as if our artifacts as a whole had suddenly wakened.

And what happens a month or two (or a day or two) after that? I have only analogies to point to: The rise of humankind. We will be in the Post-Human era. And for all my rampant technological optimism, sometimes I think I'd be more comfortable if I were regarding these transcendental events from one thousand years remove ... instead of twenty.

Can the Singularity be Avoided?
Well, maybe it won't happen at all: Sometimes I try to imagine the symptoms that we should expect to see if the Singularity is not to develop. There are the widely respected arguments of Penrose [_S_19] and Searle [_S_22] against the practicality of machine sapience. In August of 1992, Thinking Machines Corporation held a workshop to investigate the question “How We Will Build a Machine that Thinks” [_S_27]. As you might guess from the workshop's title, the participants were not especially supportive of the arguments against machine intelligence. In fact, there was general agreement that minds can exist on nonbiological substrates and that algorithms are of central importance to the existence of minds. However, there was much debate about the raw hardware power that is present in organic brains. A minority felt that the largest 1992 computers were within three orders of magnitude of the power of the human brain. The majority of the participants agreed with Moravec's estimate [_S_17] that we are ten to forty years away from hardware parity. And yet there was another minority who pointed to [_S_7] [_S_21], and conjectured that the computational competence of single neurons may be far higher than generally believed. If so, our present computer hardware might be as much as _ten_ orders of magnitude short of the equipment we carry around in our heads. If this is true (or for that matter, if the Penrose or Searle critique is valid), we might never see a Singularity. Instead, in the early '00s we would find our hardware performance curves beginning to level off — this because of our inability to automate the design work needed to support further hardware improvements. We'd end up with some _very_ powerful hardware, but without the ability to push it further. Commercial digital signal processing might be awesome, giving an analog appearance even to digital operations, but nothing would ever “wake up” and there would never be the intellectual runaway which is the essence of the Singularity. It would likely be seen as a golden age ... and it would also be an end of progress. This is very like the future predicted by Gunther Stent. In fact, on page 137 of [_S_25], Stent explicitly cites the development of transhuman intelligence as a sufficient condition to break his projections.

But if the technological Singularity can happen, it will. Even if all the governments of the world were to understand the “threat” and be in deadly fear of it, progress toward the goal would continue. In fiction, there have been stories of laws passed forbidding the construction of “a machine in the likeness of the human mind” [_S_13]. In fact, the competitive advantage — economic, military, even artistic — of every advance in automation is so compelling that passing laws, or having customs, that forbid such things merely assures that someone else will get them first.

Eric Drexler [_S_8] has provided spectacular insights about how far technical improvement may go. He agrees that superhuman intelligences will be available in the near future — and that such entities pose a threat to the human status quo. But Drexler argues that we can confine such transhuman devices so that their results can be examined and used safely. This is I. J. Good's ultraintelligent machine, with a dose of caution. I argue that confinement is intrinsically impractical. For the case of physical confinement: Imagine yourself locked in your home with only limited data access to the outside, to your masters. If those masters thought at a rate — say — one million times slower than you, there is little doubt that over a period of years (your time) you could come up with “helpful advice” that would incidentally set you free. (I call this “fast thinking” form of superintelligence “weak superhumanity”. Such a “weakly superhuman” entity would probably burn out in a few weeks of outside time. “Strong superhumanity” would be more than cranking up the clock speed on a human-equivalent mind. It's hard to say precisely what “strong superhumanity” would be like, but the difference appears to be profound. Imagine running a dog mind at very high speed. Would a thousand years of doggy living add up to any human insight? (Now if the dog mind were cleverly rewired and _then_ run at high speed, we might see something different....) Many speculations about superintelligence seem to be based on the weakly superhuman model. I believe that our best guesses about the post-Singularity world can be obtained by thinking on the nature of strong superhumanity. I will return to this point later in the paper.)

Another approach to confinement is to build _rules_ into the mind of the created superhuman entity (for example, Asimov's Laws [_S_3]). I think that any rules strict enough to be effective would also produce a device whose ability was clearly inferior to the unfettered versions (and so human competition would favor the development of the those more dangerous models). Still, the Asimov dream is a wonderful one: Imagine a willing slave, who has 1000 times your capabilities in every way. Imagine a creature who could satisfy your every safe wish (whatever that means) and still have 99.9% of its time free for other activities. There would be a new universe we never really understood, but filled with benevolent gods (though one of _my_ wishes might be to become one of them).

If the Singularity can not be prevented or confined, just how bad could the Post-Human era be? Well ... pretty bad. The physical extinction of the human race is one possibility. (Or as Eric Drexler put it of nanotechnology: Given all that such technology can do, perhaps governments would simply decide that they no longer need citizens!).

Yet physical extinction may not be the scariest possibility. Again, analogies: Think of the different ways we relate to animals. Some of the crude physical abuses are implausible, yet.... In a Post-Human world there would still be plenty of niches where human equivalent automation would be desirable: embedded systems in autonomous devices, self-aware daemons in the lower functioning of larger sentients. (A strongly superhuman intelligence would likely be a Society of Mind [_S_16] with some very competent components.) Some of these human equivalents might be used for nothing more than digital signal processing. They would be more like whales than humans. Others might be very human-like, yet with a one-sidedness, a _dedication_ that would put them in a mental hospital in our era. Though none of these creatures might be flesh-and-blood humans, they might be the closest things in the new environment to what we call human now. (I. J. Good had something to say about this, though at this late date the advice may be moot: Good [_S_12] proposed a “Meta-Golden Rule”, which might be paraphrased as “Treat your inferiors as you would be treated by your superiors.” It's a wonderful, paradoxical idea (and most of my friends don't believe it) since the game-theoretic payoff is so hard to articulate. Yet if we were able to follow it, in some sense that might say something about the plausibility of such kindness in this universe.)

I have argued above that we cannot prevent the Singularity, that its coming is an inevitable consequence of the humans' natural competitiveness and the possibilities inherent in technology. And yet ... we are the initiators. Even the largest avalanche is triggered by small things. We have the freedom to establish initial conditions, make things happen in ways that are less inimical than others. Of course (as with starting avalanches), it may not be clear what the right guiding nudge really is:

Other Paths to the Singularity: Intelligence Amplification_
When people speak of creating superhumanly intelligent beings, they are usually imagining an AI project. But as I noted at the beginning of this paper, there are other paths to superhumanity. Computer networks and human-computer interfaces seem more mundane than AI, and yet they could lead to the Singularity. I call this contrasting approach Intelligence Amplification (IA). IA is something that is proceeding very naturally, in most cases not even recognized by its developers for what it is. But every time our ability to access information and to communicate it to others is improved, in some sense we have achieved an increase over natural intelligence. Even now, the team of a Ph.D. human and good computer workstation (even an off-net workstation!) could probably max any written intelligence test in existence.

And it's very likely that IA is a much easier road to the achievement of superhumanity than pure AI. In humans, the hardest development problems have already been solved. Building up from within ourselves ought to be easier than figuring out first what we really are and then building machines that are all of that. And there is at least conjectural precedent for this approach. Cairns-Smith [_S_6] has speculated that biological life may have begun as an adjunct to still more primitive life based on crystalline growth. Lynn Margulis (in [_S_15] and elsewhere) has made strong arguments that mutualism is a great driving force in evolution.

Note that I am not proposing that AI research be ignored or less funded. What goes on with AI will often have applications in IA, and vice versa. I am suggesting that we recognize that in network and interface research there is something as profound (and potential wild) as Artificial Intelligence. With that insight, we may see projects that are not as directly applicable as conventional interface and network design work, but which serve to advance us toward the Singularity along the IA path.

Here are some possible projects that take on special significance, given the IA point of view:

* Human/computer team automation: Take problems that are normally considered for purely machine solution (like hill-climbing problems), and design programs and interfaces that take a advantage of humans' intuition and available computer hardware. Considering all the bizarreness of higher dimensional hill-climbing problems (and the neat algorithms that have been devised for their solution), there could be some very interesting displays and control tools provided to the human team member.

* Develop human/computer symbiosis in art: Combine the graphic generation capability of modern machines and the esthetic sensibility of humans. Of course, there has been an enormous amount of research in designing computer aids for artists, as labor saving tools. I'm suggesting that we explicitly aim for a greater merging of competence, that we explicitly recognize the cooperative approach that is possible. Karl Sims [_S_23] has done wonderful work in this direction.

* Allow human/computer teams at chess tournaments. We already have programs that can play better than almost all humans. But how much work has been done on how this power could be used by a human, to get something even better? If such teams were allowed in at least some chess tournaments, it could have the positive effect on IA research that allowing computers in tournaments had for the corresponding niche in AI.

* Develop interfaces that allow computer and network access without requiring the human to be tied to one spot, sitting in front of a computer. (This is an aspect of IA that fits so well with known economic advantages that lots of effort is already being spent on it.)

* Develop more symmetrical decision support systems. A popular research/product area in recent years has been decision support systems. This is a form of IA, but may be too focused on systems that are oracular. As much as the program giving the user information, there must be the idea of the user giving the program guidance.

* Use local area nets to make human teams that really work (ie, are more effective than their component members). This is generally the area of “groupware”, already a very popular commercial pursuit. The change in viewpoint here would be to regard the group activity as a combination organism. In one sense, this suggestion might be regarded as the goal of inventing a “Rules of Order” for such combination operations. For instance, group focus might be more easily maintained than in classical meetings. Expertise of individual human members could be isolated from ego issues such that the contribution of different members is focused on the team project. And of course shared data bases could be used much more conveniently than in conventional committee operations. (Note that this suggestion is aimed at team operations rather than political meetings. In a political setting, the automation described above would simply enforce the power of the persons making the rules!)

* Exploit the worldwide Internet as a combination human/machine tool. Of all the items on the list, progress in this is proceeding the fastest and may run us into the Singularity before anything else. The power and influence of even the present-day Internet is vastly underestimated. For instance, I think our contemporary computer systems would break under the weight of their own complexity if it weren't for the edge that the USENET “group mind” gives the system administration and support people! The very anarchy of the worldwide net development is evidence of its potential. As connectivity and bandwidth and archive size and computer speed all increase, we are seeing something like Lynn Margulis' [_S_15] vision of the biosphere as data processor recapitulated, but at a million times greater speed and with millions of humanly intelligent agents (ourselves).

The above examples illustrate research that can be done within the context of contemporary computer science departments. There are other paradigms. For example, much of the work in Artificial Intelligence and neural nets would benefit from a closer connection with biological life. Instead of simply trying to model and understand biological life with computers, research could be directed toward the creation of composite systems that rely on biological life for guidance or for the providing features we don't understand well enough yet to implement in hardware.

A long-time dream of science-fiction has been direct brain to computer interfaces [_S_2] [_S_29]. In fact, there is concrete work that can be done (and is being done) in this area:

* Limb prosthetics is a topic of direct commercial applicability. Nerve to silicon transducers can be made [_S_14]. This is an exciting, near-term step toward direct communication.

* Direct links into brains seem feasible, if the bit rate is low: given human learning flexibility, the actual brain neuron targets might not have to be precisely selected. Even 100 bits per second would be of great use to stroke victims who would otherwise be confined to menu-driven interfaces.

* Plugging in to the optic trunk has the potential for bandwidths of 1 Mbit/second or so. But for this, we need to know the fine-scale architecture of vision, and we need to place an enormous web of electrodes with exquisite precision. If we want our high bandwidth connection to be _in addition_ to what paths are already present in the brain, the problem becomes vastly more intractable. Just sticking a grid of high-bandwidth receivers into a brain certainly won't do it. But suppose that the high-bandwidth grid were present while the brain structure was actually setting up, as the embryo develops. That suggests:

* Animal embryo experiments. I wouldn't expect any IA success in the first years of such research, but giving developing brains access to complex simulated neural structures might be very interesting to the people who study how the embryonic brain develops. In the long run, such experiments might produce animals with additional sense paths and interesting intellectual abilities.

Originally, I had hoped that this discussion of IA would yield some clearly safer approaches to the Singularity. (After all, IA allows our participation in a kind of transcendence.) Alas, looking back over these IA proposals, about all I am sure of is that they should be considered, that they may give us more options. But as for safety ... well, some of the suggestions are a little scary on their face. One of my informal reviewers pointed out that IA for individual humans creates a rather sinister elite. We humans have millions of years of evolutionary baggage that makes us regard competition in a deadly light. Much of that deadliness may not be necessary in today's world, one where losers take on the winners' tricks and are coopted into the winners' enterprises. A creature that was built _de novo_ might possibly be a much more benign entity than one with a kernel based on fang and talon. And even the egalitarian view of an Internet that wakes up along with all mankind can be viewed as a nightmare [_S_26].

The problem is not simply that the Singularity represents the passing of humankind from center stage, but that it contradicts our most deeply held notions of being. I think a closer look at the notion of strong superhumanity can show why that is.

Strong Superhumanity and the Best We Can Ask for
Suppose we could tailor the Singularity. Suppose we could attain our most extravagant hopes. What then would we ask for: That humans themselves would become their own successors, that whatever injustice occurs would be tempered by our knowledge of our roots. For those who remained unaltered, the goal would be benign treatment (perhaps even giving the stay-behinds the appearance of being masters of godlike slaves). It could be a golden age that also involved progress (overleaping Stent's barrier). Immortality (or at least a lifetime as long as we can make the universe survive [_S_10] [_S_4]) would be achievable.

But in this brightest and kindest world, the philosophical problems themselves become intimidating. A mind that stays at the same capacity cannot live forever; after a few thousand years it would look more like a repeating tape loop than a person. (The most chilling picture I have seen of this is in [_S_18].) To live indefinitely long, the mind itself must grow ... and when it becomes great enough, and looks back ... what fellow-feeling can it have with the soul that it was originally? Certainly the later being would be everything the original was, but so much vastly more. And so even for the individual, the Cairns-Smith or Lynn Margulis notion of new life growing incrementally out of the old must still be valid.

This “problem” about immortality comes up in much more direct ways. The notion of ego and self-awareness has been the bedrock of the hardheaded rationalism of the last few centuries. Yet now the notion of self-awareness is under attack from the Artificial Intelligence people (“self-awareness and other delusions”). Intelligence Amplification undercuts our concept of ego from another direction. The post-Singularity world will involve uncommonly high-bandwidth networking.

A central feature of strongly superhuman entities will likely be their ability to communicate at variable bandwidths, including ones far higher than speech or written messages. What happens when pieces of ego can be copied and merged, when the size of a selfawareness can grow or shrink to fit the nature of the problems under consideration? These are essential features of strong superhumanity and the Singularity. Thinking about them, one begins to feel how essentially strange and different the Post-Human era will be — _no matter how cleverly and benignly it is brought to be_.

From one angle, the vision fits many of our happiest dreams: a time unending, where we can truly know one another and understand the deepest mysteries. From another angle, it's a lot like the worst-case scenario I imagined earlier in this paper.
Which is the valid viewpoint? In fact, I think the new era is simply too different to fit into the classical frame of good and evil. That frame is based on the idea of isolated, immutable minds connected by tenuous, low-bandwith links. But the post-Singularity world _does_ fit with the larger tradition of change and cooperation that started long ago (perhaps even before the rise of biological life). I think there _are_ notions of ethics that would apply in such an era. Research into IA and high-bandwidth communications should improve this understanding. I see just the glimmerings of this now [_S_32]. There is Good's Meta-Golden Rule; perhaps there are rules for distinguishing self from others on the basis of bandwidth of connection. And while mind and self will be vastly more labile than in the past, much of what we value (knowledge, memory, thought) need never be lost. I think Freeman Dyson has it right when he says [_S_9]: “God is what mind becomes when it has passed beyond the scale of our comprehension.”

[I wish to thank John Carroll of San Diego State University and Howard Davidson of Sun Microsystems for discussing the draft version of this paper with me.]”

Entire annotated bibliography: http://bit.ly/9h9prC

End of literal citation of The Singularity Forum and Stemming Article.

« CHAPTER 8 »
“THE FUTURIST” MAGAZINE'S TOP-10 FORECASTS FOR 2010 AND BEYOND PLUS MORE THAN 250 FORECASTS FROM OUTLOOK, OUR ANNUAL SPECIAL REPORT.

Beginning of Literal citation of The Futurist Magazine’s Top-10 Forecast for 2010

Each year since 1985, the editors of THE FUTURIST have selected the most thought-provoking ideas and forecasts appearing in the magazine to go into our annual Outlook report. Over the years, Outlook has spotlighted the emergence of such epochal developments as the Internet, virtual reality, and the end of the Cold War. Here are the top ten forecasts for 2010 and beyond.

1. Your phone will tell you when you’re in love. Mobile devices are enabling new spontaneous connections in real-world settings, including love connections. One day soon, your phone will play matchmaker, recommending that you introduce yourself to someone nearby whose online profile displays tastes or passions similar to yours. Impossible? An iPhone application called Serendipity is currently being commercialized by MIT researchers. —Erica Orange, “Mining Information from the Data Clouds,” July-Aug 2009, p. 17

2. In the design economy of the future, people will download and print their own products, including auto parts, jewelry, and even the kitchen sink. Rapid prototyping, or 3-D printing, and devices like the RepRap self-reproducing printer are allowing people to design, customize, and print objects from their home computers. In the future, cheaper versions of these devices could disrupt manufacturing business models, resulting in far cheaper products individually tailored to every customer’s desire. —Thomas A. Easton, “The Design Economy,” Jan-Feb 2009, p. 43

3. The era of brain-to-brain telepathy dawns. Neuroscientist David Poeppel says that telepathic communication between brains is possible, so long as “communication” is understood to be electromagnetic signals and not words. Technologies like magnetoencephalography, which pick up the various signals the brain sends out, could be used to pick up specific signals and convey them. If you could train your brain to signal in Morse code, sensors in a helmet could pick up the message and send it to another helmet. —Patrick Tucker, “Reinventing Morality,” Jan-Feb 2009, p. 23

4. Tomorrow’s inventors will spend their days writing descriptions of the problems they want to solve, and then letting computers find the solutions. Invention programs like Gregory Hornby’s “evolutionary algorithm” have been used to invent real-world objects, such as a special space antenna, based entirely on engineering specifications. Continued advances will increasingly rely on cross-fertilization between the fields of biology and computer science. As a result, we will develop not only software that can produce better inventions but also inventions that are able to adapt to their environments. —Robert Plotkin, “The Automation of Invention,” July-Aug 2009, p. 24

5. Micronations built on artificial islands will dramatically shift the face of global politics. New forms of government and unusual political models will begin to emerge, including corporate nation-states, religious states, tax-free zones, single-function countries, cause-related countries, and even rental nation-states, where organizations can “rent a country” for a year or two to test a specific project. —Thomas Frey, “Own Your Own Island Nation,” May-June 2009, p. 30

6. Young people will read more, and the old will play more video games. According to the 2007 American Time Use Survey from the Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed some surprising findings. In 2007, adults aged 75 and older spent nearly twice as much time playing video games (about 20 minutes) as they did in 2006. Teens aged 15— 19 spent twice as much time reading as they did before (about 14 minutes) and less time using a computer for games or casual surfing. —World Trends & Forecasts, Nov-Dec 2008, p. 14

7. Ammonia may become the fuel of choice for cars by 2020. As a candidate source for hydrogen used in fuel cells, ammonia (comprising one nitrogen and three hydrogen atoms) is plentiful, easier to liquefy than methane, and emits nitrogen rather than carbon, thus having fewer negative impacts on the climate. —J. Storrs Hall, “Ammonia, the Fuel of the Future,” Sep-Oct 2009, p. 10

8. Algae may become the new oil. According to researchers at a Department of Energy plant in New Mexico, single-celled microalgae, grown in pond water, produce a biofuel that is lead-free and biodegradable, emits two-thirds less carbon dioxide and other pollutants than gasoline, and can run any modern diesel engine. Even better, algae require only a fraction of the land area of biofuel-producing crops. —Robert McIntyre, “Algae’s Powerful Future,” Mar-Apr 2009, p. 25

9. Radical methods of altering the planet may be the only way to prevent the worst effects of climate change. Geoengineering may be inevitable because, even if humans could instantly end all greenhouse gas emissions, global temperatures would continue to increase for the next 20— 30 years, triggering feedback loops and more warming. Potential megascale geoengineering projects include sending space mirrors into orbit, sequestering carbon in the ground in biomass charcoal, and increasing the amount of carbon that the ocean can absorb by forcing plankton blooms in the seas. —Jamais Cascio, author of Hacking the Earth, reviewed by Bob Olson, July-Aug 2009, p. 51

10. The existence of extraterrestrial life will be confirmed or conclusively denied within a generation. New space missions and advanced computer technology could confirm the existence of extraterrestrials soon. Scientists using NASA’s Spitzer Space Telescope have found that at least 20%—and perhaps as many as 60%—of Sun-like stars could have rocky planets. Next generation, AI-driven space probes may allow us to plot the location of every planetary body in the known universe. Among the more than 300 extra-solar worlds already discovered, probably one has some form of life, according to Dimitar Sasselov, an astronomer and director of Harvard University’s Origins of Life Initiative. —Gregory Georgiou, “The Real Life Search for E.T. Heats Up,” Nov-Dec 2008, p. 20

All of these forecasts plus dozens more are included in the annual report that scans the best writing and research from THE FUTURIST magazine over the course of the previous year. The Society hopes this report, covering developments in business and economics, demography, energy, the environment, health and medicine, resources, society and values, and technology, will assist its readers in preparing for the challenges and opportunities in 2010 and beyond.

OUTLOOK 2009
BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS

* China will most likely become the world's largest economy within the next three decades. The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace believes China's economy will surpass that of the United States by 2035. There are debates about whether India's economic development will ultimately surpass China's, but it is clear that Asia's economies are growing. Overall, workers in Asia are becoming more skilled and educated. -Andy Hines, "Consumer Trends in Three Different 'Worlds,'" July- Aug 2008, p. 22; Futurist Update, Aug 2008

* Tourism's future is bright. Tourism is expected to nearly double worldwide, from 842 million international tourist arrivals in 2006 to 1.6 billion in 2020. China will be the greatest source of tourists as well as the most popular tourist destination. -Marvin J. Cetron and Owen Davies, "Trends Shaping Tomorrow's World, Part One," Mar-Apr 2008, p. 43

* Book publishers may need to hire movie directors. Books are finally going multimedia and digital, and publishers are offering more content online for free. Textbooks will bring together a wide variety of talents to create a multimedia "book." The shift from print to multimedia means that the writers of the future will work with Web designers, software writers, and other professionals to create products. The next step for publishers will be involving the readers in the publishing process, using them to set prices and give input on what to publish. -Patrick Tucker, "The 21st-Century Writer," July-Aug 2008, p. 25

* Retirees in the United States will increasingly return to the workforce. One-third of Americans who retire are back on the job two years later, and growing numbers of retirees are choosing to start their own businesses. About one in five people, and 40% of seniors, say they plan to continue working until they die, and nearly two-thirds of Americans say they doubt that retirement is possible for the middle class. -Marvin J. Cetron and Owen Davies, "Trends Shaping Tomorrow's World, Part Two," May-June 2008, p. 43

* Wealth trends favor the already-favored. The wealthiest 2% of U.S. families saw their net worth double between 1984 and 2005, from $1.07 million to more than $2.1 million per household. The poorest 5% of U.S. households saw their negative net worth (i.e. more liabilities than assets) grow from $1,000 in 1984 to nearly $9,000 in 2005. Since much of the advantage for the wealthy comes from home equity, the current housing price bubble may slow down these trends in the short term. -World Trends & Forecasts, Nov-Dec 2007, p. 12

* Consumers will gain CEO-like powers in the business world. The Internet is enabling consumers to readily share information and consult each other for product information instead of relying on professional critics. Companies will adapt by offering more customer-to-customer forums, asking customers to market to other consumers, and substituting average people for celebrities in product ads. -Arnold Brown, "The Consumer Is the Medium," Jan-Feb 2008, p. 29

* Socioeconomic disparities will become more pronounced in aging societies. Frictions in many societies will rise as greater numbers of people approach old age. Policy makers will need to be more mindful of how inadequate resources early in life will leave many retirees in need. -Richard A. Settersten Jr. "Navigating the New Adulthood," Mar-Apr 2008, p. 23

* Social safety nets will get cut. Governments across the industrialized world will pare down or scrap altogether their pension and health-care programs for retirees. Younger workers will increasingly protest the higher taxes that those programs require due to greater numbers of retirees than ever before. Succeeding generations will have to work together to avert "age wars." -Maddy Dychtwald, "Retiring Retirement," Mar-Apr 2008, p. 24

COMPUTERS

* Watch out! HAL from 2001 is on the way. Selfaware machine intelligence could be achieved by midcentury. Machine computation to match humans' natural self-awareness (and realizing Arthur C. Clarke's science-fiction nemesis HAL 9000) would require calculations far more rapid than now possible, as well as the development of self-sustained thinking algorithms. So a real-life HAL is yet decades away, but may be achieved by 2061. -Joseph N. Pelton, "HAL, Meet SAM" (Special Section, "Science Fiction vs. Reality"), Sep-Oct 2008, p. 36

* Search engines will become humanlike by 2050. With the "semantic" Web, AI-based search engines will comprehend users' questions and queries just like a human assistant. Users will enter questions and get relevant machine-generated answers; users who give it search terms will get only articles relevant to their specific requests. -Patrick Tucker, "The AI Chasers," Mar-Apr 2008, p. 18

* Rainbow traps may improve computing abilities. A technique to slow down or even capture light, called rainbow trapping, may enable computers to store memory using light rather than electrons. The result could increase operating capacity of computers by 1,000%, according to researchers at the University of Surrey and Salford University in the United Kingdom. -Tomorrow in Brief, May-June 2008, p. 2

* Future data jockeys will be measuring digital capacity in yottabytes. Thanks to growing digital storage capacity, data will be measured in yottabytes (1 septillion bytes of data) by 2050. The prospect that no digital information ever need be thrown away will raise numerous possibilities, such as the ability to record and store every second of one's life on a computer (and no doubt post it on Facebook). -Kelly "KJ" Kuchta, quoted in "Thinking Globally, Acting Locally, Living Personally," Nov-Dec 2007, p. 57

* "Mapping the mob" could make streets safer in emergencies. Paul M. Torrens of Arizona State University is developing an immersive 3-D computational model to simulate pedestrian behavior in the event of a sudden riot or other emergency. According to Torrens, the mob-mapping program allows him to identify deviations from normal pedestrian behavior, the better to understand what causes panic in certain situations. -Cynthia G. Wagner, "Predicting Panic," Nov-Dec 2007, p. 68

* "Serious gaming" will help train tomorrow's health workers. Health-related computer games represent 20% of the "serious game" market-video games used for training and other no-nonsense purposes. The games could help train and evaluate new recruits faster, even in the field, and enable students to bypass classrooms. Another possibility is using video games to train patients to care for themselves. -Patrick Tucker, "Virtual Health," Sep-Oct 2008, p. 61

DEMOGRAPHY

* Urbanization will hit 60% by 2030. As more of the world's population lives in cities, rapid development to accommodate them will make existing environmental and socioeconomic problems worse. Epidemics will be more common due to crowded dwelling units and poor sanitation. Global warming may accelerate due to higher carbon dioxide output and loss of carbon-absorbing plants. -Marvin J. Cetron and Owen Davies, "Trends Shaping Tomorrow's World, Part One," Mar-Apr 2008, p. 52

* Workforces on the move will exacerbate social conflicts. Increased migrations of workers from developing countries to developed countries will help offset worker shortages in host countries. But many of the migrants will be impoverished. Social-security systems and urban infrastructures will strain to accommodate them. Nativist backlashes will become more common. -Cetron and Davies, p. 40

* The United States is headed for a "demographic singularity." Management professor Nat Irvin II defines the demographic singularity as a pace of change so fast that the American identity as we know it will be irreversibly altered. He puts the year for the singularity at 2015, when minorities will make up 40% of the U.S. population. -Nat Irvin II, quoted in "Thinking Globally, Acting Locally, Living Personally," Nov-Dec 2007, p. 57

* Empowering girls through education will improve future communities. Girls who have access to adequate secondary education are much more likely to practice family planning, according to a new report. The report also finds that education increases girls' civic participation and makes them less likely to experience sexual harassment, to contract HIV/AIDS, or to fall victim to sexual or labor trafficking. -World Trends & Forecasts, Jan-Feb 2008, p. 8

ENERGY

* Access to electricity will reach 83% of the world by 2030. Electrification has expanded around the world, from 40% connected in 1970 to 73% in 2000, and may reach 83% of the world's people by 2030. Electricity is fundamental to raising living standards and access to the world's products and services. Impoverished areas such as sub-Saharan Africa still have low rates of electrification; Uganda is just 3.7% electrified. -Andy Hines, "Global Trends in Culture, Infrastructure, and Values," Sep- Oct 2008, p. 20

* Architects will harness energy from the movement of crowds. MIT researchers have created a system of floor blocks that generate power when the blocks rub against one another as people walk over them. A crowd of 30,000 moving to and fro could create enough power to run a small electrical system or perhaps bring a subway train safely to a platform in the event of a blackout. -World Trends & Forecasts, Nov-Dec 2007, p. 6

* Future cars may not fly in the air, but they might run on it. Compressed-air engines are being tested to replace gas-powered engines, achieving speeds of 200 mph. So far, though, they run out of air quickly and still require power to compress the air, so we may not be riding on air anytime soon. -Tomorrow in Brief, Sep-Oct 2008, p. 2

* Capturing carbon will make coal burning cleaner. Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) could reduce the carbon emitted from coal-fired power plants by as much as 90%. But questions remain as to who should shoulder the costs of implementing the technology (running CCS plants is anywhere from 10% to 40% more expensive than running a traditional coal power plant) and what to do with the sequestered carbon. -World Trends & Forecasts, Nov-Dec 2007, p. 8

* Pursuit of alternatives to oil could help stabilize gas prices. Increased oil production and competition from alternative energy could curtail rising oil prices. New refineries are scheduled to go online in several oil-producing countries by 2010. Meanwhile, the world will have 1,000 nuclear plants operating by 2025. Use of natural gas, wind power, and solar energy will also increase, though to a much lesser degree. -Marvin J. Cetron and Owen Davies, "Trends Shaping Tomorrow's World, Part One," Mar-Apr 2008, p. 48

ENVIRONMENT AND RESOURCES

* Pollution will hit the world's emerging economies hardest. Acid rain, deforestation, and other forms of pollution will become more common in China, India, and other developing countries due to rapid industrialization and lax pollution controls. Rates of pollution-related disease will rise disproportionately among these populations: China's rate of pulmonary disease is five times higher than that of the United States. -Marvin J. Cetron and Owen Davies, "Trends Shaping Tomorrow's World, Part One," Mar-Apr 2008, p. 51

* The desalination industry will expand greatly. Thanks to looming freshwater shortages, desalination is likely to become one of the world's largest industries. Ultimately, inland cities are likely to face more problems than coastal areas, including the necessity of huge pipelines. -McKinley Conway, "The Desalination Solution," May-June 2008, p. 23

* Climate change threatens freshwater supplies. Rising sea levels will reduce freshwater supplies by 50% more than previous estimates have projected. As the supply decreases, global demand for freshwater will increase, endangering the environment, food and energy supplies, and local and international political stability. Cutting our energy consumption now could offset big reductions in available drinking water later. -World Trends & Forecasts, Mar-Apr 2008, p. 10; Lester R. Brown, "Draining Our Future: The Growing Shortage of Freshwater," May-June 2008, p. 16

* Increases in the earth's temperature, no matter how slight, could trigger global mayhem and destruction. A global temperature rise of 6°C would be enough to drastically alter the world as we know it, with catastrophic consequences for human beings. Conflict over scarce resources would most likely cause human civilization to collapse. A temperature rise of just 3°C could transform the Amazon rain forest into a desert, and with 4°C, the last Alpine glaciers would likely disappear. -World Trends & Forecasts, May-June 2008, p. 14

* Farmers will be the key to conservation. Farming contributes more carbon dioxide to the earth's atmosphere than transportation does, according to the United Nations. But farmers could thrive in a low-carbon economy if they received compensation for making their tilling, planting, and livestock-raising practices more environmentally friendly. -World Trends & Forecasts, Jan-Feb 2008, p. 14

HEALTH AND MEDICINE

* The race for biomedical and genetic enhancement will-in the twenty-first century-be what the space race was in the previous century. Humanity is ready to pursue biomedical and genetic enhancements, says UCLA professor Gregory Stock. The money is already being invested, but, he says, "We'll also fret about these things-because we're human, and it's what we do." -Gregory Stock, quoted in "Thinking Globally, Acting Locally, Living Personally," Nov-Dec 2007, p. 57

* Genetic therapies' promises will tempt more people into tampering with their DNA. New knowledge of human genetics may lead to cures for most of today's common diseases, say researchers. It may also lead to individuals altering their own DNA to enhance their appearances, athletic abilities, and mental capacities. Researchers demand strict guidelines on what constitutes proper-and improper- adaptation of the human genome. -World Trends & Forecasts, Jan-Feb 2008, p. 19

* Americans may turn away from antidepressants. According to anthropologist Helen Fisher, Americans are taking 100 million prescriptions for antidepressants. "We know these drugs kill the sex drive. I maintain that these drugs also kill your ability to love and your ability to stay in love," she says. As possible side effects become more apparent, fewer people may elect to take antidepressant drugs like Prozac and Paxil. -Helen Fisher, quoted in "Thinking Globally, Acting Locally, Living Personally," Nov-Dec 2007, p. 56

* Synthetic blood may alleviate donor blood shortages. Researchers at the University of Sheffield in England have developed a sterile synthetic blood made of millions of plastic molecules resembling hemoglobin. Unlike donated blood, which has a shelf life of just 35 days and must be refrigerated, the plastic blood can be stored for months on end at room temperature. -Tomorrow in Brief, Nov-Dec 2007, p. 2

* Smokers are more likely to develop dementia. Current smokers have a 50% greater risk of dementia and 70% higher risk of Alzheimer's disease than nonsmokers. Researchers blame smoking for stressing blood vessels and raising the likelihood of contracting cerebrovascular disease, a disorder associated with dementia. -Tomorrow in Brief, Jan-Feb 2008, p. 2

* Saving snakes may save ourselves. The venom of the timber rattlesnake may have undiscovered medicinal properties, but habitat loss and human persecution have put the rattler on the endangered species list. Losing the snake means humanity will lose access to research that could yield cures for diabetes and other problems. -Tomorrow in Brief, Nov-Dec 2007, p. 2

* Cancer treatments will be safer. Radioimmunotherapy- the use of radioactive atoms to kill viruses that cause some unhealthy tumor growths-will enable doctors to fight cancer while causing less harm to patients' bodies. These therapies would have minimum impact on healthy tissues and would prevent much tumor growth before operations are needed. -World Trends & Forecasts, Mar-Apr 2008, p. 12

* Better blood flow, more energy, thanks to high-tech underwear. Compression tights can help those with potential health problems due to poor circulation. The high-tech undergarments (made by Skins USA) are body-hugging gradient tights that are engineered to accelerate blood flow, resulting in greater concentration and higher energy, enhanced performance, and less discomfort overall. -World Trends & Forecasts, July- Aug 2008, p. 10

* Fungi may help fight disease. Fungi may offer hope for new medicines that can combat drug-resistant microorganisms. Natural compounds harnessed from fungi may potentially be utilized in antibiotics and nutraceutical products. -Tomorrow in Brief, May-June 2008, p. 2

INFORMATION SOCIETY

* Everything you say and do may be recorded. By the late 2010s, ubiquitous unseen nanodevices will provide seamless communication and surveillance among all people everywhere. Humans will have nanoimplants, facilitating interaction in an omnipresent network. Everyone will have a unique Internet Protocol (IP) address. Since nano storage capacity is almost limitless, all conversation and activity will be recorded and recoverable. -Gene Stephens, "Cybercrime in the Year 2025," July-Aug 2008, p. 34

* Identity theft and other Internet crimes will increase at a faster pace. Identity theft, already the number-one crime in the United States and rapidly expanding throughout the Internet world, can be expected to wreak havoc on the financial and social worlds of millions around the globe. Also, as wireless communications networks continue to become more prevalent, new cybercrimes will be invented. Designer nanobots may be loosed on the Web to engender types of mischief and destruction not yet contemplated. -Stephens, p. 34

* You'll have more friends whom you'll never meet, and cyberfriends may outnumber real-life friends. The generation of young people now ages 12 to 24 years old may have more friends whom they will have never met in person. Unlike older cohorts, Gen Yers (aka the millennial generation) are comfortable with befriending strangers virtually via social networking sites and other cyber options that connect people based on their interests rather than physical location. -Andy Hines, "Global Trends in Culture, Infrastructure, and Values," Sep-Oct 2008, p. 20

* In the future, you'll listen to books and read your cell phone. Half of Japan's top 10 best-selling books last year started out as cell phone-based text message novels. A Japanese author became a cross-continent media sensation when a novel he originally texted into his cell phone sold more than 3 million copies as a printed book. -Patrick Tucker, "The 21st-Century Writer," July- Aug 2008, p. 25 et seq.

* Reach out and thwart a terrorist. Networks of cell phones could one day be deployed to detect and track radiological weapons intended for use in a dirty-bomb terrorist attack. Since cell phones already have global positioning locators, equipping individual phones with highly sensitive radiation detectors would provide nearly ubiquitous monitoring. Because the most likely targets of a radiological attack would be congested cities filled with gadget-dependent people, a cell phone-based detection system would make it difficult for a terrorist to go unnoticed. -Tomorrow in Brief, May-June 2008, p. 2

* More girls may become victims of cyberbullying. As girls spend more time communicating with friends via cell phone and the Internet (chat rooms, message boards, instant messaging, etc.), they are increasingly at risk of attacks from cyberbullies-acquaintances and strangers alike. Unlike real-world bullying, harassment in cyberspace can be a 24/7, global phenomenon conducted anonymously. Options for combating cyberbullies include setting up blocks to messages from unfriendly sources and not responding to them, thus not rewarding the bullies with the attention they seek. -World Trends & Forecasts, Sep-Oct 2008, p. 14

* Hotel rooms will become interactive, anticipating your needs like a built-in butler. Tomorrow's hotel rooms will go out of their way to meet their guests' needs. Marriott's Teaching Hotel is testing alarm clocks that run away from you after they go off, digital peepholes that display visitors on wall-mounted LCD screens, lights that turn themselves off after you leave the room, and flameless electronic candles that make for convenient romantic ambience. -World Trends & Forecasts, Mar-Apr 2008, p. 12

TECHNOLOGY AND SCIENCE

* The Internet will become more factually reliable and more transparent. Internet entrepreneur Andrew Keen believes that the anonymity of today's Internet 2.0 will give way to a more open Internet 3.0 in which thirdparty gatekeepers monitor the information posted on Web sites to verify its accuracy. Keen sees a growing trend toward sites requiring contributors to identify themselves and paying them for their submissions. -Patrick Tucker, "Fighting the Cult of the Amateur," Jan- Feb 2008, p. 33

* Laser satellites will beam data faster. Using lasers instead of radio waves could speed satellite-based data exchange a hundredfold. As the amount of data sent around the world-and through space-proliferates, lasers will enable larger data packets to be transmitted using less bandwidth. One barrier is making the laser pump modules durable enough to withstand the forces of launches and harsh space environments. -World Trends & Forecasts, Sep-Oct 2008, p. 13

* The technology race between Japan and South Korea will intensify. South Korea has mandated a robot in every home by 2020. Japan is hoping to accomplish the same goal by 2015. -Cecily Sommers, quoted in "Thinking Globally, Acting Locally, Living Personally," Nov- Dec 2007, p. 57

* Lunar habitation gets polar test. NASA's Constellation Program is planning a year-long test-run of a potential lunar habitat at a site in Antarctica. The program, whose goal is to send humans back to the Moon by 2020, judges the Antarctic's extreme climate to be the closest ecosystem that Earth has to lunar conditions. -World Trends & Forecasts, Mar-Apr 2008, p. 10

* TV in 3-D. Tomorrow's televisions may not need screens. Mathematicians in Finland have produced a blueprint for instruments that would project floating 3-D images by means of nanomaterials that bend light around objects. -Tomorrow in Brief, Mar-Apr 2008, p. 2

* Optical clocks may enable us to measure time much more precisely. Separate teams of researchers in Germany and the United States have succeeded in developing optical clocks that use lasers to capture strontium atoms and measure their frequencies. The new clocks have the ability to measure time much more precisely and in much smaller intervals than the standard atomic clocks used today, which measure the oscillation of the movement of cesium atoms. -World Trends & Forecasts, May-June 2008, p. 10

* Silicon versus graphene. Graphene, a form of carbon combining aspects of semiconductors and metals, could replace silicon in a variety of applications, including high-speed computer chips and biomedical sensors. Researchers have found that graphene conducts electricity with less resistance than any other known material. Graphene yields high-electron speed in near-room temperature conditions, which is critical to making the chips practical. -Tomorrow in Brief, July-Aug 2008, p. 2

TRANSPORTATION

* The car's days as king of the road may soon be over. If current trends continue, the world will have to make way for 200 million new cars a year by 2050, for a total of 3 billion vehicles on the road. That scenario could be altered with more powerful wireless communication that reduces demand for travel, flying delivery drones to replace trucks, and policies to restrict the number of vehicles owned in each household. -Thomas J. Frey, "Disrupting the Automobile's Future," Sep-Oct 2008, p. 39 et seq.

* Flying cars may be on the way at last. Ever since The Jetsons made the daily aerial commute so attractive in the 1960s, people have been looking forward to a future full of flying cars. One reason it hasn't happened yet is the weight ratio of the propulsion system: A small aircraft with small propellers would need more thrust to fly, making it a very expensive proposition. But innovations such as the M400 Skycar by Paul Moller are gradually showing the way to the future of personalized human flight. -Patrick Tucker, "Up, Up, and Away" (Special Section, "Science Fiction vs. Reality"), Sep-Oct 2008, p. 32


* Self-repairing spacecraft will make space travel more affordable. The cost of space flight could be halved due to a new liquid that automatically deploys to cover damage on the spacecraft's surface. The Bristol University researchers who developed the material say that a spacecraft equipped with it could take more frequent space missions, stay in space longer, and require fewer repairs. -Tomorrow in Brief, Jan-Feb 2008, p. 2

* Mobility is becoming a priority to more people in rising economies: More people will travel farther faster. Personal mobility is increasing in rapidly expanding economies, thanks to small vehicles such as Tata Motors' "people's car." Better transportation opens more opportunities for shopping, employment, and social interaction beyond one's own neighborhood or village, but longer commutes decrease the amount of time available for such activities. -Andy Hines, "Global Trends in Culture, Infrastructure, and Values," Sep-Oct 2008, p. 21

* Research labs are coming closer to "beaming" us up. Star Trek-type transporters may soon be possible for data transmission, but not for sending people places. DARPA researchers are pursuing technologies that could reduce particles to a wave state, so the quantum rise. Total employment in the United States will ininformation about the particle is what would be transmitted rather than the particle itself. The original disappears in one place, and the quantum information recreates it in another place. -Marvin J. Cetron, "Beam Me Up, DARPA" (Special Section, "Science Fiction vs. Reality"), Sep-Oct 2008, p. 35

VALUES AND SOCIETY

* People will have more sex. With women's growing economic power around the world, arranged marriages are becoming less likely. As a result, women will feel freer to express their sexuality. Rising trends in health also portend more sexual activity, according to sociologist Helen Fisher. People who are relatively healthy have more sex. -Helen Fisher, quoted in "Thinking Globally, Acting Locally, Living Personally," Nov-Dec 2007, p. 56

* U.S. cultural hegemony may be over. The days of U.S. and First World dominance over the world's culture and economy may soon be over. Useful ideas from less-developed countries, such as the three-wheeled "tuk-tuk" common in crowded megacities, are capturing the attention of highly developed places. -Andy Hines, "Global Trends in Culture, Infrastructure, and Values," Sep-Oct 2008, p. 19

* Capitalism in China could spur growth in religion. China may experience a rapid growth in religions as the skyrocketing economy creates tumultuous changes and a yearning for stabilizing influences. Christianity is the fastest-growing faith in China, where the government recognizes just five religions: Buddhism, Taoism, Islam, Catholicism, and Protestantism. -Tomorrow in Brief, Sep- Oct 2008, p. 2

* Organized religion's appeal is declining in the United States. U.S. religious congregations are currently facing slightly declining overall attendance numbers, despite a 40% population increase over the past 35 years. As a result, traditional Western religion's influence over the mainstream will likely continue to wane. -World Trends & Forecasts, July-Aug 2008, p. 16

* New generations, new values. Selfreliance and cooperation will become prevalent societal values as Generation X and Generation Y replace the baby-boom generation. Gen Xers and Gen Yers are highly entrepreneurial. They are also very socially aware. Societies can expect more small-business activity, more social activism, and greater outreach across cultures and political parties. -Marvin J. Cetron and Owen Davies, "Trends Shaping Tomorrow's World, Part One," Mar-Apr 2008, p. 42

* Travelers might book their next flight to "Privacy Island." Communications technologies have enabled workers to be connected to their work 24/7/365. But perpetually increasing demands on people's time may run up against a countertrend: increasing demand for free time. Places might offer "communication-free zones" to harried customers as a respite from their "always on" work lives. -Hines, p. 19

* More people will consume ethically. A recent trend toward "green" consumption is only the tip of the ethical iceberg: Corporations will increasingly lure customers by promoting their ethics in hiring practices (e.g. diversity in the boardroom, limited outsourcing), R&D standards (e.g. no animal testing), and philanthropic activity. -Hines, p. 22

* Divorces may leave bigger environmental footprints. Rising divorce rates cost energy, water, and other natural resources due to households breaking up and family members relegating to separate dwelling units, according to a Michigan State University study. The researchers note that cohabitation saves society building materials and utility costs. -Tomorrow in Brief, Mar-Apr 2008, p. 2

* American adults are delaying the future. Forty-one percent of U.S. adults say they are delaying major life decisions, such as buying a home, marrying, or even undergoing a medical procedure, according to a recent Harris Poll. The main reason cited is a lack of personal savings, along with concerns about the U.S. economy's overall future. -Tomorrow in Brief, July-Aug 2008, p. 2

WORK AND CAREERS

* Succeeding in future niche careers may mean choosing an unusual major. An increase in unusual college majors may foretell the growth of unique new career specialties. Instead of simply majoring in business, more students are beginning to explore niche majors such as sustainable business, strategic intelligence, and entrepreneurship. Other unusual majors that are capturing students' imaginations: neuroscience and nanotechnology, computer and digital forensics, and comic book art. Scoff not: The market for comic books and graphic novels in the United States has grown 12% since 2006. -World Trends & Forecasts, Sep-Oct 2008, p. 8

* Employment in the United States will continue to rise. Total employment in the United States will increase by 15.6 million jobs between 2006 and 2016. However, this rate is slightly slower than that of the previous decade. "In-person" jobs such as health-care and other service workers will grow, while jobs that can be outsourced likely will be. Experts recommend that young people educate themselves now for more-global career opportunities in the future. -World Trends & Forecasts, May-June 2008, p. 6

* Tomorrow's high-tech cowboys will telecommute. "Cow whispering" ranchers will be able to round up herds remotely, thanks to technologies like GPS and RFID. Livestock outfitted with tracking devices and earpieces will allow their herders to control their movement more cost-effectively and efficiently. -Tomorrow in Brief, Sep-Oct 2008, p. 2

* Professional knowledge will become obsolete more quickly. An individual's professional knowledge is becoming outdated at a much faster rate than ever before. Most professions will require continuous instruction and retraining. Rapid changes in the job market and work-related technologies will necessitate job education for almost every worker. At any given moment, a substantial portion of the labor force will be in job retraining programs. -Marvin J. Cetron and Owen Davies, "Trends Shaping Tomorrow's World, Part Two," May-June 2008, p. 41

WORLD AFFAIRS

* The Middle East may become more secular. Popular support for religious government is declining in places like Iraq, according to a University of Michigan study. The researchers report that in 2004 only one fourth of respondents polled believed that Iraq would be a better place if religion and politics were separated. By 2007, that proportion was one-third. -World Trends & Forecasts, Nov-Dec 2007, p. 10

* Bioviolence will become a greater threat as the technology becomes more accessible. In the next decade, biological technologies that were once at the furthest frontiers of science will become available to anyone with a modicum of scientific training. Emerging scientific disciplines (notably genomics, nanotechnology, and other microsciences) could pave the way for a bioattack. Bacteria and viruses could be altered to increase their lethality or to evade antibiotic treatment. Also, diseases once thought to be eradicated could be resynthesized, enabling them to spread in new regions. -Barry Kellman, "Bioviolence: A Growing Threat," May- June 2008, p. 25 et seq.

* Wars will extend their impact to innocent victims, including future generations. Nanopollution from modern warfare represents a significant additional risk for both soldiers and civil societies. Nanoparticles could be defined as "invisible bullets," since no sensors have as yet been used to detect them in bombed territories. Nanoparticles could potentially cause new diseases with unusual and difficult-to-treat symptoms, and they will inflict damage far beyond the traditional battlefield. -Antonietta M. Gatti and Stefano Montanari, "Nanopollution: The Invisible Fog of Future Wars," May-June 2008, p. 32

* Climate change is already spurring armed conflict. A hotter planet may be a more war-torn one, says a Hong Kong study. The study found that sudden changes in temperature from 1400 CE to 1900 CE consistently disrupted world food and water supplies, which led to more populations going to war. The study's authors worry that rising temperatures today might similarly lead to strife. -World Trends & Forecasts, Mar-Apr 2008, p. 6

* The world's legal systems will be networked. The Global Legal Information Network (GLIN), a database of local and national laws for more than 50 participating countries, will grow to include more than 100 counties by 2010. The database will lay the groundwork for a more universal understanding of the diversity of laws between nations and will create new opportunities for peace and international partnership. -Joseph N. Pelton, "Toward a Global Rule of Law: A Practical Step Toward World Peace," Nov-Dec 2007, p. 25

* Militaries will use neuroscience breakthroughs to win future wars. An advanced understanding of the mind and how it operates and responds to crises will be key to militaries seeking to secure competitive advantage over their adversaries, according to researchers at Sandia National Laboratories' Human Systems and Simulations Technologies Department. -Tomorrow in Brief, Nov-Dec 2007, p. 2

OUTLOOK 2008
BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS

The world will have a billion millionaires by 2025. Globalization and technological innovation are driving this increased prosperity, according to James Canton, author of The Extreme Future. But challenges to prosperity will also become more acute, such as water shortages that will affect two-thirds of world population by 2025, he predicts. — Patrick Tucker, “Managing a Future of Extremes” [book review], May-June 2007, p. 54

Counterfeiting of currency will proliferate, driving the move toward a cashless society. Sophisticated new optical scanning technologies have been a boon for currency counterfeiters, so societies are increasingly putting aside their privacy fears about going cashless. Meanwhile, cashless technologies are improving, making them far easier and safer to use. — Allen H. Kupetz, “Our Cashless Future,” May-June 2007, p. 37

Cashless transactions will mean the end of “grace periods.” Cash exchanges will gradually be replaced by real-time “fractal” transactions — i.e. instant automatic payment to everyone involved in a purchase, from producer to distributor to retailer. Wireless handheld devices will process and distribute money to all of the recipients instantaneously, splitting the transaction like a fractal and avoiding the delays of non-cash money transactions such as checks and credit-card payments. — Thomas Frey, “Fractal Transactions: Launching the Future of Money,” Jan-Feb 2007, p. 11

The U.S. fiscal imbalance will worsen. At current spending levels, U.S. federal deficits will reach unsustainable levels in as little as two decades, at which point, without significant policy changes, deficits could reach 10% or more of the U.S. economy. — David M. Walker, “Foresight for Government,” Mar-Apr 2007, p. 20

Sharing risk through “microinsurance” could help communities rebuild after natural disasters. The world’s poorest people often live in the places most likely to be struck by natural disasters — and they are the least likely to have insurance. Now, they are increasingly turning to microinsurance programs, which, like microcredit, allow participants in a community to pool their risk and hence lower their premiums to as little as $2 per year. — World Trends & Forecasts, May-June 2007, p. 16

The United States will see a shrinking labor force and growing income disparity by 2050. Both trends will affect the nation’s long-term fiscal health as the economy continues to move away from manufacturing jobs and toward services and high-tech occupations. Such work typically requires more-expensive education that is out of reach for many working-class families. — World Trends & Forecasts, July-Aug 2007, p. 9

Socially responsible investing may get a boost from venture capitalists. Investment in “green” or clean technologies such as alternative fuel development is gaining momentum. This new interest by venture capitalists follows a trend led by individual investors and mutual funds to weigh social values alongside financial reports. The difference is that the capitalists increasingly see these investments as a way to make more money — not just do good. — World Trends & Forecasts, July-Aug 2007, p. 14

DEMOGRAPHY

World population by 2050 may grow larger than previously expected, due in part to healthier, longer-living people. Slower than expected declines of fertility in developing countries and increasing longevity in richer countries are contributing to a higher rate of population growth. As a result, the UN has increased its forecast for global population from 9.1 billion people by 2050 to 9.2 billion. — World Trends & Forecasts, Sep-Oct 2007, p. 10

A growth in the world’s poor population is likely. The earth’s population is projected to increase by 2.5 billion people in the next four decades, most of them in the countries that are least able to grow food. Research indicates that these trends could be offset by improved global education among the world’s developing populations. Population declines sharply in countries where almost all women can read and where GDP is high. — James Martin, “The 17 Great Challenges of the Twenty-First Century,” Jan-Feb 2007, p. 21

Conflicts could arise between temporary immigrants and long-term immigrants. Millions of people from the developing world migrate to the wealthy nations every year to put down new roots, while many others hope to work, legally or illegally, for a short period and send money to family back home. Among Latino immigrants to the United States, for instance, this transfer amounts to more than $50 billion per year. In the future, the competing interests of permanent and temporary immigrant groups will become more apparent, and conflicts more likely. — Eric Garland, “Latinos in America’s Cultural Laboratory,” Jan-Feb 2007, p. 19

Unrealistic expectations will lead many members of generations X and Y down the wrong career path. Roughly 50% of high-school seniors in 2000 were planning to continue their education after college and get an advanced degree, compared with only 20% of seniors in 1976. Meanwhile, the actual percentage of high-school seniors who obtained advanced degrees remained the same, suggesting that many of today’s young people have unrealistic expectations about the future. — World Trends & Forecasts, Mar-Apr 2007, p. 11

Infant mortality, currently at a historic low, could rise. At just 57 deaths of children under the age of 1 per 1,000 live births, the infant mortality rate is at its lowest level in history. But the trend may be beginning to reverse. The rate of decline in infant mortality has slowed significantly since 1950 because of a stagnation in health-care improvements, and infant mortality has increased in some developing countries, due to HIV/AIDS and other problems. — World Trends & Forecasts, Nov-Dec 2006, p. 13

ENERGY

Global oil production will soon peak. Developing nations growing hungrier for scarce oil supplies, coupled with concern over the environment in developed nations, will signal the end of the oil era. Petroleum alternatives now comprise about 17% of global energy use and are growing at 30% per year. By 2020, 30% of global energy is likely to come from alternative energy sources. — William E. Halal, “Technology’s Promise: Highlights from the TechCast Project,” Nov-Dec 2006, p. 44

Worldwide consumption of crude oil will grow more than 40% by 2025. A large portion of this increased demand will occur in the United States, which uses and imports more oil than any other nation. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Annual Energy Outlook for 2005, U.S. gross imports of oil are expected to increase from 12.3 million barrels per day in 2003 to 20.2 million by 2025. — Tsvi Bisk, “The Energy Project: Independence by 2020,” Jan-Feb 2007, p. 33

Biobutanol — an advanced biofuel made from wheat, corn, sugarcane, and other agricultural feedstocks — will gain in popularity over ethanol. Biobutanol’s advantages over ethanol will become more obvious in the years ahead: Its energy content is closer to that of gasoline, it is less corrosive, and it can be delivered and dispensed using current infrastructure. — Deron Lovaas, “Going Green by Empowering Choice,” Jan-Feb 2007, p. 27

Biodiesel fuels will gain more attention from consumers eager to run their vehicles on something other than oil. Since most commercial vehicles (buses, trucks) use diesel fuels, the potential for switching to biodiesel is greater than for gasoline-powered passenger cars. One promising source for biofuels is algae, which could yield 10 times more oil per acre than soybeans or canola and provide 30% of all transportation’s needs for biodiesel by 2020. — Will Thurmond, “Biodiesel’s Bright Future,” July-Aug 2007, p. 27

Ocean-current power will likely increase, led by power-hungry coastal states. Tidal-current turbines and tidal-stream turbines tapping the power of sea systems like the Gulf Stream could provide energy for power-hungry states such as Florida. Energy use in Florida will go up nearly 30% in the next decade as a result of growth. Researchers from Florida State University have received a $5 million grant to see how the Gulf Stream, which flows at 1,000 times the rate of the Mississippi River, might be tapped for power. — World Trends & Forecasts, Mar-Apr 2007, p. 8

Ambient energy — i.e. vibrations in the surrounding environment — could provide power for nanodevices. Tiny tools need motors to keep them running, but conventional power sources such as batteries are too big and eventually lose charge. In the future, nanodevices could use zinc oxide nanowires that draw energy from vibrations — such as from the flow of blood or ultrasonic waves — to produce the electrical charges needed to keep them operating. — Tomorrow in Brief, July-Aug 2007, p. 2

“Tactical biorefineries” will turn garbage into fuel. A portable generator developed for military applications can turn food, paper, plastic, and other trash into electricity. Not only will this help troops stay mobile, but it will also increase their security by eliminating telltale information in a unit’s waste. — Tomorrow in Brief, May-June 2007, p. 2

The number of vehicles on the world’s roads will grow from 800 million now to 1.1 billion in 15 years. As oil supplies peak, a variety of alternative energy options could be pursued, which would not only keep cars running, but also reduce the environmental impacts. Options include fuel cells, biodiesel fuels, and hybrid vehicles (full, mild, light, and plug-ins). — Elizabeth Lowery, “Energy Diversity as a Business Imperative,” July-Aug 2007, p. 23

Hydrogen could be produced on demand for fuel cells. Researchers have discovered that hydrogen can be produced spontaneously when water is added to an aluminum and gallium alloy. Since the hydrogen can be produced as needed, it can help make the switch from gasoline to fuel cells for small internal combustion engines like lawn mowers. — Tomorrow in Brief, Sep-Oct 2007, p. 2

ENVIRONMENT

The earth is on the verge of a significant species extinction event. The twenty-first century could witness a biodiversity collapse 100 to 1,000 times greater than any previous extinction since the dawn of humanity, according to the World Resources Institute. Protecting biodiversity in a time of increased resource consumption, overpopulation, and environmental degradation will require continued sacrifice on the part of local, often impoverished communities. Experts contend that incorporating local communities’ economic interests into conservation plans will be essential to species protection in the next century. — World Trends & Forecasts, Nov-Dec 2006, p. 6

The Arctic will feel the impacts of climate change more severely than the rest of the world. Average temperatures in the Arctic have risen at about twice the rate of the rest of the planet. Rapidly retreating sea ice and glaciers, eroding coasts, and thawing permafrost are among the major environmental problems the Arctic faces in the decades ahead. As global warming accelerates in polar regions, the Arctic Ocean could be temporarily ice-free during the summer of 2040. — Lawson W. Brigham, “Thinking about the Arctic’s Future: Scenarios for 2040,” Sep-Oct 2007, p. 27

Factories will both produce and capture more carbon dioxide. Worldwide, factories and other stationary sources emit 7 billion tons of CO2 into the atmosphere every year, a number that may increase in coming years. One creative solution has been developed by a U.K. chemical company, Terra Nitrogen, which pumps its greenhouse gases into a nearby greenhouse fully planted with tomatoes. — World Trends & Forecasts, Nov-Dec 2006, p. 7

Carbon-dioxide emissions could reduce the earth’s outer atmosphere by 3% by 2017. The thinning atmosphere could mean that satellites in low Earth orbit would have less resistance and could stay in operation longer, according to a group of researchers from the National Center for Atmospheric Research. — Tomorrow in Brief, Mar-Apr 2007, p. 2

The Southern Ocean may be slowing global warming. Ocean waters around Antarctica may be absorbing more CO2 than thought, as westerly winds continue a 30-year trend of shifting toward the pole (carrying the North’s emissions with them). While this may mean a slower rate of global warming than once thought, the changes in ocean chemistry could damage habitats and marine organisms. — Tomorrow in Brief, May-June 2007, p. 2

Today’s acid oceans may threaten tomorrow’s shellfish. The calcification (shell formation) process of shellfish is slowing down as oceans absorb more carbon dioxide and become more acidic. By 2100, mussels will be 25% slower in their shell-building process. — Tomorrow in Brief, July-Aug 2007, p. 2

The number of Africans imperiled by floods will grow 70-fold by 2080. Rapid urbanization and growing poverty make floods particularly dangerous, altering the natural flow of water and cutting off escape routes. If global sea levels rise by the predicted 38 cm by 2080, the number of Africans affected by floods will grow from 1 million to 70 million. — World Trends & Forecasts, July-Aug 2007, p. 7

The U.K. intends to build all-green housing exclusively by 2016. Smaller households — fewer people sharing living quarters — means bigger demand for housing and hence greater environmental impacts: currently 1.5 tons of greenhouse-gas emissions per year in a typical home. The U.K. government has proposed that all newly constructed homes be non-fluorocarbon-emitting by 2016, with improvements in heating efficiency, lighting, and insulation. — World Trends & Forecasts, July-Aug 2007, p. 7

New materials that regulate their own temperature could cut energy costs. A “thin film” composed of dissimilar semiconductors could one day allow for radiant heat walls or self-cooling windows. In the average U.S. home, heating and cooling are the largest consumers of energy, accounting for 50% of household energy use, roughly $950 per household per year. — World Trends & Forecasts, Nov-Dec 2006, p. 11

HEALTH AND MEDICINE

An osteoporosis epidemic will hit the United States in the next 10 years. About 10 million people have osteoporosis in the United States and 34 million have osteopenia, a precursor to osteoporosis. These numbers are projected to increase to 14 and 47 million respectively by 2020. More replacement parts — small bones, wrists, and even spinal disks — will be on the market, but the surgery for their implant and subsequent care will remain expensive. — Jay Herson, “The Coming Osteoporosis Epidemic,” Mar-Apr 2007, p. 32

Doctors will use sonar to detect bone fractures. Tiny cracks form when collagen fibers in bones fail; the cracking produces sound waves, much like the sound waves that occur during an earthquake. Researchers at Purdue University are now trying to apply the same sound-wave technology used to detect fractures in bridges to find the early signs of bone fractures. — Tomorrow in Brief, Jan-Feb 2007, p. 2

Electronically enhanced brains will make new sensory experiences possible. As researchers better understand the neural processes that produce perceptions, such as the mixing of light allowing us to see colors, they may be able to design new neural structures that would allow us to perceive millions of colors rather than just four primary colors. — William Holmes, “Expanding the Human Mind: The Future of the Brain,” July-Aug 2007, p. 46

Repairing injuries to the nervous system will make significant progress in the next 10 years. Researchers in neuroanatomy will learn how to stimulate cell division to replace neurons, as well as grow more complicated neural structures. Neurons will be interfaced with electronic circuits to create a “bionic man” with more portable and less obtrusive bionic packages. — Holmes, p. 44

Robots will assist surgeons rather than replace them in the operating room. In the future, surgeons will use robotic instruments and wireless search-engine technology as readily as they use any other tool. These enhancements will enable them to feel and visualize the area of surgery more fully while performing delicate, life-or-death procedures. — World Trends & Forecasts, Mar-Apr 2007, p. 7

Cocoa could become the next “miracle drug” — or at least a vital food supplement. Researchers have found that high consumption of cocoa can help reduce risk of death from heart disease and cancer. The active ingredient in natural cocoa, epicatechin, helps blood vessels relax and thus improves blood flow. This could help improve cardiovascular health as well as reduce the risk of Alzheimer’s disease and stroke. — World Trends & Forecasts, July-Aug 2007, p. 11

RESOURCES

Rising prices for natural resources could lead to a full-scale rush to develop the Arctic. Not just oil and natural gas, but also the Arctic’s supplies of nickel, copper, zinc, coal, freshwater, forests, and of course fish are highly coveted by the global economy. Whether the Arctic states tighten control over these commodities or find equitable and sustainable ways to share them will be a major political challenge in the decades ahead. — Lawson W. Brigham, “Thinking about the Arctic’s Future: Scenarios for 2040,” Sep-Oct 2007, p. 27

A total, but temporary, collapse in the global fishing industry will occur before the year 2050. Overfishing will result in a collapse in major fishing stocks before the middle of the century. Fish populations can, however, recover from overfishing. For instance, the Norwegian spring-spawning herring collapsed during the 1970s, but thanks to a successful management policy, the sustainable fishing stock of the species will soon rise to 1.3 metric tons a year. — World Trends & Forecasts, Mar-Apr 2007, p. 9

Water will be in the twenty-first century what oil was in the twentieth century. Global water shortages and drought conditions are spreading in both the developed and the developing worlds. In response, the dry state of California is building 13 desalination plants that could provide 10— 20% of the state’s water in the next two decades. Desalination will become more mainstream by 2020. — William E. Halal, “Technology’s Promise: Highlights from the TechCast Project,” Nov-Dec 2006, p. 44

SOCIETY AND VALUES

“Privateness” will become passé. The spread of surveillance technology and the rise of Web sites like YouTube, which receives more than 65,000 video uploads daily, are driving a trend toward cyber-exhibitionism. “There is definitely a trend under way,” says sociologist Amitai Etzioni. “People have become very willing to disclose things about themselves for a number of reasons .... I wouldn’t call it a trend away from privacy so much as away from privateness.” — World Trends & Forecasts, Nov-Dec 2006, p. 10

Virtual education will enter the mainstream by 2015. Only 10% of higher education is now conducted online. E-training accounts for 30% of corporate training, however, and will likely exceed 50% soon. The fact that 100 million Americans are taking continuing education suggests a healthy and growing market for online college courses. — William E. Halal, “Technology’s Promise: Highlights from the TechCast Project,” Nov-Dec 2006, p. 46

Roughly 30% of the world population will have access to telephones, TV, Internet, and other forms of IT by 2016. This low number represents the ongoing challenge of bringing modern communications and media to poor nations, but also represents the growing potential of wireless IT to help the world’s poor better connect with the rest of the globe. — Halal, p. 45

Human knowledge capability will continue to double every year. “Human knowledge capability” is the quantity of available knowledge multiplied by the power of technology to process that knowledge. This capability will increase by two to the power of 100, the equivalent of a thousand billion billion, in the twenty-first century. — James Martin, “The 17 Great Challenges of the Twenty-First Century,” Jan-Feb 2007, p. 24

Technology will lead to educated illiterates. When widely used and effective voice-recognition software replaces the keyboard, we will be well on our way toward a world in which traditional concepts of literacy are no longer applicable. Education will shift from teaching reading, writing, and arithmetic and toward encouraging creativity, imagination, and critical thinking. — Peter Wagschal, “Illiterates with Doctorates, Revisited,” Mar-Apr 2007, p. 28

More people will age and die alone. Growing numbers of elderly people in Japan and the United States face death without immediate family members or friends to provide care in their last days. New government, private, and volunteer services are emerging to meet the needs in creative and comforting ways, such as collecting bodies and arranging burial ceremonies. — Arthur B. Shostak, “Japan’s Approach to Aging and Dying,” Sep-Oct 2007, p. 8

More young Americans, especially men, will delay or opt out of joining the labor force. Though American men still outnumber (and out-earn) their female counterparts, male participation in the workforce is on a steady decline. By 2020, only 70% of working-age men will be working, and by 2050, only 66%. Reasons include more time spent in school and taking time off instead of waiting until retirement to enjoy life, says Harvard University economist Claudia Goldin. — World Trends & Forecasts, May-June 2007, p. 8

Communications systems are altering human behavior. The constant availability of media invites abuse, says journalism professor Michael Bugeja. People with wide access to laptop computers or cell phones are more likely to use those devices at inappropriate times and at inappropriate moments, such as logging onto networking sites during a university lecture. As such techno-abuses become commonplace they also become more acceptable. The end result is a more distracted world. — World Trends & Forecasts, Jan-Feb 2007, p. 12

Artists of the future will become more market-driven. Young painters, dancers, and actors fresh from graduate school probably won’t have the support systems that many of their predecessors enjoyed, despite forecasts that demand in the arts will grow as fast as for all other occupations through 2014. Competition for both salaried and freelance jobs will intensify as aspiring artists with master of fine arts degrees will vastly outnumber the paying jobs available. — World Trends & Forecasts, Mar-Apr 2007, p. 17

TECHNOLOGY

Quantum computers will arrive by 2021.

Computers that use spinning electrons rather than silicon-based chips to process data could do in seconds what would take a modern computer billions of years, raising the prospect of infinite processing power by the year 2020. — William E. Halal, “Technology’s Promise: Highlights from the TechCast Project,” Nov-Dec 2006, p. 45

Most security systems will use biometrics by 2010. Governments and corporations are using fingerprints, hand geometry, the iris, voice, and facial features in a growing number of identity verification systems, with fingerprints making up 67% of these applications. — Halal, p. 44

Protecting privacy will become a growing challenge due to new technologies. A wireless device in your shoes to record your miles while jogging could be turned into a stalker’s handy tracking device. And cameras have become small enough to be disguised as shirt buttons to invade people’s privacy on the sly. Engineers are scrambling to counter that trend with privacy protection devices, such as a light-absorbing capacitor that blocks the signals of digital cameras. — World Trends & Forecasts, May-June 2007, pp. 12, 13

Virtual immortality may soon be achieved. Vastly improving information storage and processing and sophisticated virtual-reality graphics already create nearly lifelike experiences. Researchers now hope to combine artificial intelligence into the mix. People’s appearance, mannerisms, voice, and even their knowledge and experience may one day be digitized, creating a virtual person that would preserve much of our personalities for eternity. — World Trends & Forecasts, July-Aug 2007, p. 12

The power to make things invisible may soon be at hand. “Optical cloaking” is a way of bending light around an object so that it disappears from view. Researchers have been able to achieve rudimentary cloaking of objects at single wavelengths—rendering the object invisible if it is far away and remains perfectly still. Close-up invisibility will not likely be achieved for more than a decade, but could be used to make soldiers invisible to night-vision goggles, among other applications. — World Trends & Forecasts, Sep-Oct 2007, p. 14

Decisions will increasingly be made by nonhuman entities. Electronically enabled teams in networks, robots with artificial intelligence, and other noncarbon life-forms will make financial, health, educational, and even political decisions for us. Reason: Technologies are increasing the complexity of our lives and human workers’ competency is not keeping pace well enough to avoid disasters due to human error. — Arnold Brown, “‘Not with a Bang’: Civilization’s Accelerating Challenge,” Sep-Oct 2007, p. 38

Artificial intelligence will evolve from roughly mimicking human intelligence to vastly surpassing it. Ultimately, “hyperhuman” artificial intelligence will rise, with sentience that is as intellectually productive and capable as the entire human race, according to J. Storrs Hall, author of Beyond AI: Creating the Conscience of the Machine. — Patrick Tucker, “The Artificial Mind” [book review], Sep-Oct 2007, p. 55

WORLD AFFAIRS

Wars may look less like wars, as enemies deploy nonmilitary strategies against one another. War will evolve away from clashes between recognizable armies, and large-scale collective violence will eventually be eschewed for its ultimate ineffectiveness. As a result, nonmilitary instruments of power (such as the strategic management of perceptions and use of moral authority) will become the norm. — Gregory D. Foster, “Strategy and the Search for Peace,” Nov-Dec 2006, p. 19

The “two-front” war has been replaced by the “multicentric” threat. Global structures are no longer distinguished by a state-centric system of sovereign nations. Rather, a varied array of other actors, individuals, and organizations on the global stage exercise authority over their own domain. As a result, the challenge of preparing for a two-front war has been replaced by the possibility of innumerable fronts developing simultaneously in any and every part of the world. — James N. Rosenau, “Strategizing in a Complex and Disaggregated World,” Nov-Dec 2006, p. 25

Terrorist events will become more common and more deadly. Jihadists (Muslim extremists) will likely acquire nuclear weapons within the next 10 years, and al-Qaeda will grow larger and more dangerous. Terrorists are also likely to rise to power in governments as they buy loyalty to their cause through improved services. — Marvin J. Cetron, “Defeating Terrorism: Is It Possible? Is It Probable?” May-June 2007, pp. 19, 23
The Middle East could face all-out war for the next three decades after withdrawal of U.S. and allied troops from the region. But peace could reign elsewhere: Many jihadist terrorists might turn their attention away from Western enemies and toward battling each other. — Marvin J. Cetron and Owen Davies, “Worst-Case Scenario: The Middle East,” Sep-Oct 2007, p. 20

A new era of nuclear proliferation may emerge in the Middle East. Israel has already admitted to possessing nuclear weapons. The most immediate nuclear threat currently is Pakistan, but Iran is also working toward nuclear weapon capability. Estimates range from two to 10 years for completion of the first Iranian nuclear weapon. — Cetron and Davies, pp. 18, 21

The threat of another cold war with China, Russia, or both will replace terrorism as the chief foreign-policy concern of the United States. Scenarios for what a war with China or Russia would look like make the clashes and wars in which the United States is now involved seem insignificant. The power of radical jihadists is trivial compared with Soviet missile capabilities, for instance. The focus of U.S. foreign policy should thus be on preventing an engagement among Great Powers. — Edward N. Luttwak, “Preserving Balance among the Great Powers,” Nov-Dec 2006, p. 26

The globalization of the arms industry will continue to help abusive governments flout international arms control treaties. U.S. European, and Canadian arms manufacturers circumvent many arms control regulations by subcontracting the manufacture of weapons to countries like Egypt, China, and Turkey. Manufactured weapons have in turn found their way to such destinations as Sudan or Colombia, where they are used to kill or displace civilians. The trend toward subcontracting weapons manufacture will likely continue as it is fueled by a rise in military budgets across the globe. — World Trends & Forecasts, Mar-Apr 2007, p. 13

Future Fashions: Clothes That Make the Futurist

To prepare for any journey, we like to know what we’ll wear. So here’s what fashionable futurists (or future fashionistas) will be packing for the road ahead:

Outfits and accessories that are smart, sensitive, and sweet (or stinky): Researchers in smart fabrics and intelligent textiles (SFIT) are working with the fashion industry to bring us color— changing jeans, evening wear that emits different scents as the mood alters, undergarments that monitor our vital signs, and built-in communications networks that could keep us safer. — Patrick Tucker, “Smart Fashion,” Sep-Oct 2007, p. 68

Petroleum-free clothing: Synthetic fabrics will be made using organic sources such as corn, rice, sugarcane residue, and grasses rather than petroleum. The fabric will also be biodegradable. — Tomorrow in Brief, July-Aug 2007, p. 2

Nanocosmetics: Nano— engineered particles could pack more punch in tomorrow’s cosmetics bags, adding bug repellants, sunscreens, antibacterial properties, and other useful features to our blushes and skin creams. But critics warn that the widespread use of carbon fullerenes (buckyballs) in such products may pose dangerous environmental and health risks. — World Trends & Forecasts, July-Aug 2007, p. 8

Dissolvable dresses: Fabrics made with clear polymers that break down slowly under normal wear will dissolve quickly when dropped into hot water. Once out of fashion, your clothes could be liquefied rather than thrown into overflowing landfills. — Tomorrow in Brief, Sep-Oct 2007, p. 2

Wireless running shoes that record your steps: The Nike+iPod has a receiver that measures your speed and distance and plays your favorite tunes while you jog. (Be careful, though! Someone else may be spying on you. See p. 8.) — World Trends & Forecasts, May-June 2007, p. 12

Wristwatch cash card: Store a few extra bucks in a “cashless wallet” embedded in your wristwatch. Buy a can of soda or subway ticket with a simple wave of your hand. — Allen H. Kupetz, “Our Cashless Future,” May-June 2007, p. 38

How to Be Happy

“Utopia” may never turn out to be the village of happy nice people that dreamers imagine, but economists, sociologists, psychologists, and others studying the pursuit of happiness do offer ways that we can better understand it and work toward a happier future.

New technologies will let people customize their own versions of “utopia.” Artificial worlds created in Massively Multiplayer Online Role Playing Games (MMORPGs) allow players to indulge in new identities and activities that may not be possible or acceptable in real life. This could provide a psychological safety valve that would let people vent their aggression without hurting others. — Lane Jennings, “Reinventing Utopia,” July-Aug 2007, p. 36

More people could find temporary happiness in “Free Zones,” much like Mardi Gras in New Orleans or Carnival in Rio. Self-indulgence at bars, strip clubs, casinos, and amusement parks might be expanded into places where patrons could use mind-altering drugs or engage in other risky activities while carefully monitored. — Jennings, p. 36

Marketing experiences rather than material goods could increase happiness. A psychologist recommends that consumers spend their money more on experiences, such as family vacations. The memories created last longer than the “stuff” we buy and can be mentally edited to eliminate the bad experiences. Experiences also can help individuals meet personal goals, making them more interesting, likeable, and happy than materialistic people. — World Trends & Forecasts, Sep-Oct 2007, p. 6

A new tool for monitoring happiness will help nations assess their well-being. Social psychologists measuring wealth, education, and health — three predictors of national well-being — found that countries with large populations and a strong sense of collective identity (such as China, Japan, and India) tend to have lower levels of well-being than smaller, more individualistic countries (Denmark, Switzerland). — World Trends & Forecasts, Nov-Dec 2006, p. 12

Governments may enact happiness-promoting policies. Sweden bans advertising aimed at children in order to reduce consumerism associated with unhappiness. Mental-health treatment subsidized by government could alleviate depression and hyper-anxiety. Taxes to redistribute extra income to poorer people will also buy more national happiness. — Richard Layard, “Setting Happiness as a National Goal,” July-Aug 2007, p. 37

High Probability, High Impact Terrorist Threats

Terrorist threats ranked by military and industry professionals and futurists as having the highest probability include:
• Rumors spread of an impending attack (i.e. in order to incite mass panic).
• Attack on Saudi oil production.
• General Internet overload.
• Terrorist attacks in Saudi Arabia blamed on “Zionists.”

• Attack on commuter trains into New York City or other major city.
• Threats ranked as having the highest potential impact include:
• A suitcase nuclear device placed on any target.
• Attack on the next U.S. presidential inauguration.
• Air Force One shot down.
• Dirty bomb detonated in a populated area.
• 9/11 scenario repeated.
— Marvin J. Cetron, “Defeating Terrorism: Is It Possible? Is It Probable?” May-June 2007, p. 20
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OUTLOOK 2007
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BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS

Economic disparities are growing. The ratio of the total income of people in the top 5% to those in the bottom 5% has grown from 6 to 1 in 1980 to more than 200 to 1 in 2006. These disparities will continue unless more cooperation occurs between the rich and the poor in addressing inequality. — Jerome C. Glenn and Theodore J. Gordon, “Update on the State of the Future,” Jan-Feb 2006, p. 21

An estimated 3.3 million service jobs will move out of the United States over the next 10 to 15 years, according to Forrester Research Inc. This trend reflects the pervasive spread of the Internet, digitization, and the availability of white-collar skills abroad. This shift of high-tech service jobs may be a permanent feature of economic life in the twenty-first century. — John M. Eger, “Building Creative Communities: The Role of Art and Culture,” Mar-Apr 2006, p. 20

Pharmaceutical manufacturing will migrate to the developing world. By 2040, the pharmaceutical industry will move to developing countries with skilled scientific labor pools. The Middle East might show an interest in promoting the industry as these countries become more democratized and as the demand for oil declines. — Jay Herson, “Innovation in Pharmaceuticals: Speeding Up Development of New Cures,” Jan-Feb 2006, p. 25

Top industries for nanotechnology breakthroughs. Development of molecular machinery will be a boon to a wide assortment of industries. The brightest nano-futures are in manufacturing and materials, food and agricultural products and packaging, more powerful and efficient computers and electronics, medical devices and pharmaceuticals, alternative energy systems, and luxury goods, such as stain-resistant clothing. — World Trends & Forecasts, May-June 2006, p. 15

DEMOGRAPHY

Generation Y will migrate heavily overseas. For the first time in its history, the United States will see a significant proportion of its population emigrate due to overseas opportunities. According to futurists Arnold Brown and Edie Weiner, Generation Y, the population segment born between 1978 and 1995, may be the first U.S. generation to have many of its members leave the country to pursue large portions of their lives, if not their entire adult lives, overseas. — Edward Cornish, “Planning in an Age of Hyperchange” (book review of FutureThink by Edie Weiner and Arnold Brown), Mar-Apr 2006, p. 61

Progress on slowing population growth may reverse. The fight against overpopulation is not over, and global population is projected to reach between 9.5 billion and 12 billion if fertility rates do not continue to decline. That projected total could be lower if more investment is made in family-planning services, sex education, and women’s education and empowerment, according to experts. — World Trends & Forecasts, Sep-Oct 2006, p. 13

Companies will see the age range of their workers span four generations. Workers over the age of 55 are expected to grow from 14% of the labor force to 19% by 2012. In less than five years, 77 million baby boomers in the United States will begin reaching age 65, the traditional retirement age. As a result, the idea of “retirement” will change significantly. — John A. Challenger, “Working in the Future: How Today’s Trends Are Shaping Tomorrow’s Jobs,” Nov-Dec 2005, p.48

Education for the millennial generation will become more personal and mobile. Millennial-generation learners — those born after 1992 — are growing up in a mobile, personalized, on-demand media environment that poses challenges to traditional classroom-bound educators. Millennials are comfortable with multitasking, which forces their teachers to fight for their time and attention. Millennials also work and learn more collaboratively than previous generations, so testing an individual learner’s progress may become increasingly difficult. — World Trends & Forecasts, May-June 2006, p. 7

ENVIRONMENT

The costs of global-warming-related disasters will reach $150 billion per year. The world’s total economic loss from weather-related catastrophes has risen 25% in the last decade. According to the insurance firm Swiss Re, the overall economic cost of catastrophes related to climate change threatens to double to $150 billion per year in a decade. The insurance industry’s share would be $30— $40 billion annually. However, the size of these estimates also reflects increased growth and higher real-estate prices in coastal communities. — World Trends & Forecasts, Nov-Dec 2005, p. 13

Humanity will continue to produce more carbon than oceans or forests can naturally absorb. The current absorption capacity of carbon by oceans and forests is 3 to 3.5 billion tons a year, yet 7 billion tons are added annually. That figure could grow to 14 billion tons per year if current trends continue. — Jerome C. Glenn and Theodore J. Gordon, “Update on the State of the Future,” Jan-Feb 2006, p. 21

Coastal fisheries could disappear in Florida. By 2100, many of the bays and estuaries on Florida’s coast could be lost to floods due to global warming. Along with these habitats will go two of the state’s most profitable industries — commercial and sport fishing. — World Trends & Forecasts, Sep-Oct 2006, p. 9

HABITATS

More Americans will move to rural areas than will move out. During the 1990s, the population of nonmetropolitan counties in the United States grew by 5.3 million, to 10.3%. While the majority of this growth occurred in counties near large urban areas, the most rapid increase was (and continues to be) in scenic mountainous counties of the western United States. The highest percentage of growth of people 65 or older will likely occur in the mountainous West, followed by the South. — Robert McIntyre, “New Villages for a New Era,” Jan-Feb 2006, p. 36

The Internet will drastically change living patterns and urban populations. More people will use the Internet to work remotely from scenic locations. In contrast, more corporations will move their headquarters back to major metropolitan cities, to allow management heads to network with their global peers in banking and the media, while nonessential duties are performed elsewhere. — Joel Garreau, “The Santa Fe-ing of Civilization,” Jan-Feb 2006, p. 43

By 2025, 75% of U.S. residents will live on the country’s coasts. The migration of more people to the nation’s coasts raises many concerns—such as the preservation of wetlands, increased housing costs, transportation bottlenecks, and higher insurance losses due to more and more expensive damage from tropical storms and hurricanes. — Edward Cornish, “Planning in an Age of Hyperchange” (book review of FutureThink by Edie Weiner and Arnold Brown), Mar-Apr 2006, p. 61

Some localities may disappear in a post-petroleum world. The end of an oil-based economy could mean the end of certain communities that rely on petroleum for transportation. Even hybrid vehicles may not come soon enough to save them. Arizona, for instance, is currently so automobile-dependent that, without cheap oil and power, its far-flung communities may fade away in 50 years. — Mark Blyth, “Will Wind and Biofuels Be Enough?” July-Aug 2006, p. 28

HEALTH AND MEDICINE

Uses of nanotechnology in medicine will increase. Smart drug-delivery systems that release medicines into the body at a precise location could arrive before the end of the decade. Bio-nanotubes developed at the University of California at Santa Barbara respond to electrical charges that occur inside the body in order to release drug payloads at specific locations. Researchers believe that the chemotherapy drug Taxol is one potential candidate for the smart bio-nanotube capsules. — Tomorrow in Brief, Nov-Dec 2005, p. 2

By 2030, we will see drugs individualized according to a patient’s genome. These drugs will be both safe and effective, but the overall market will become fragmented due to individualization. Pharmaceutical firms may find themselves less profitable or with limited growth opportunities under these scenarios. If so, they may diversify into other industries, such as cosmetics, veterinary medicine, clinical laboratories, and industrial agricultural chemicals. — Jay Herson, “Innovation in Pharmaceuticals: Speeding Up Development of New Cures,” Jan-Feb 2006, p. 29

Embryonic stem cells will help the fight against Alzheimer’s disease. Scientists in the United Kingdom have succeeded in growing brain and lung tissue from embryonic stem cells. The researchers believe that the new technique for growing brain tissue will eventually help doctors build replacement neural or brain matter for people who suffer from Parkinson’s and Alzheimer’s diseases. A 2003 Swedish study estimates that Alzheimer’s disease afflicts 27.7 million people globally. — World Trends & Forecasts, Mar-Apr 2006, p. 17

Children’s “nature deficit disorder” is a growing health threat. Children today are spending less time in direct contact with nature than did previous generations. The impacts are showing up not only in their lack of physical fitness, but also in the growing prevalence of hyperactivity and attention deficit. Studies show that immersing children in outdoor settings — away from television and video games — fosters more creative mental activity and concentration. — World Trends & Forecasts, May-June 2006, p. 13

Look for cell-based computing and microchip-enhanced brains. New research fusing electronic microchips with living brain cells could one day lead to chip implants to combat neurological disorders. Connecting neurons to semiconductors successfully is the key to future breakthroughs in human— computer synthesis. — World Trends & Forecasts, July-Aug 2006, p. 14

INFORMATION SOCIETY

Computers may soon have artificial empathy for their users. Computer scientists are developing ways for machines to sense their users’ mood. Bored? Distracted? Frustrated? A more user-aware computer could one day pick up on your body language, facial expressions, and tone of your voice, then perhaps pull up a soothing photo of your puppy to calm you down if you’re upset. — Tomorrow in Brief, May-June 2006, p. 2

Education will be portable, and learning will be “on-demand.” Education may follow the entertainment-delivery model, allowing customers (learners) to download what they want and use it when they want it. Faculty will increasingly upload lectures and educational “playlists” to Podcasting services for students to attend at their convenience. — Tomorrow in Brief, Sep-Oct 2006, p. 2

Internet will increase need for social connections. New mental illnesses such as “digital depression” and “connected aloneness” are on the rise as people spend more time engaging virtually with others through the Internet and cell phones rather than face-to-face. Future products and services that enhance personal experiences and life enrichment could help meet the challenge of restoring the personal— virtual balance. — Karl Albrecht, “Eight Supertrends Shaping the Future of Business,” Sep-Oct 2006, p. 27

Loss of minority languages could be reversed. Globalization is one of the forces driving out minority cultures and their languages, but communication technologies and national policies may help reverse the trend. Thanks to the Internet, Modern Hebrew, for instance, can be studied and spread around the world. Catalan, French Canadian, Irish Gaelic, and Welsh are among the minority languages receiving renewed institutional support from governments, schools, and businesses. — Eric Garland, “Can Minority Languages Be Saved?” July-Aug 2006, p. 31

Text will be instantly translated into multimedia presentations. No more waiting for the movie version: Rapid language processing will create multimedia animations of your favorite book (or any text, such as directions to a museum in a foreign city). Filmmakers could use the technology to create more-realistic storyboards from screenplays and experiment with different camera angles before actors are brought onto the set. — Tomorrow in Brief, July-Aug 2006, p. 2

RESOURCES

Agriculture’s role in the world economy may expand. By concentrating more on producing transportation fuels than food, the world’s farmers could strengthen their role in the global economy. Sugarcane or palm oil grown for fuel, for instance, could give producers in tropical and subtropical countries a vital strategic advantage. One side effect: Supermarkets and service stations will increasingly become competitors for agricultural commodities. — Lester R. Brown, “Rescuing a Planet Under Stress,” July-Aug 2006, p. 20

Water shortages in Africa will grow more severe. Nearly 200 million Africans are facing serious water shortages. That number will climb to 230 million by 2025, according to the United Nations Environment Program. Finding fresh water in Africa is often a huge task, requiring people (mostly women and children) to trek miles to public wells. While the average human requires only about 4 liters of drinking water a day, as much as 5,000 liters of water is needed to produce a person’s daily food requirements. More wells and water displacement pumps could alleviate this problem. — Patrick Tucker, “Power by Play: A Child-Run Water Pump,” Nov-Dec 2005, p. 68

World energy demand will increase dramatically. Experts predict that energy demand will rise by 60% between 2002 and 2030 and will require about $568 billion in new investments every year. Part of this demand can be offset through greater energy efficiency. The Texas Transportation Institute has found that in the United States alone 2.3 billion gallons of gas is wasted each year in traffic jams. — Jerome C. Glenn and Theodore J. Gordon, “Update on the State of the Future,” Jan-Feb 2006, p. 23

Coal could make a cleaner comeback. Skyrocketing oil prices make cheaper energy sources like coal look more attractive. Use of coal worldwide is expected to grow by 1.5% a year. If not managed properly, that increased consumption could have dire environmental impacts. New cleaner-burning plants could convert the coal into a synthetic gas, which would be more efficient, use less water, and through carbon trapping technology make coal virtually emissions free. — World Trends & Forecasts, Sep-Oct 2006, p. 15

Cost of solar energy will decline. Electricity generated from solar power is expensive and thus a minor player on the energy scene. But the cost of photovoltaic panels has declined by 90% in the past three decades, and the market is expected to grow from $11.2 billion in 2005 to $50 billion in 2015. — World Trends & Forecasts, Sep-Oct 2006, p. 16

SECURITY

In the future, the military will focus more on shaping perceptions than on human targets. Many U.S. security experts feel that the key challenges ahead are rooted in how people around the world perceive the West and themselves. The most-dangerous military threat in the coming decades will arise from small, independent groups without the ability to directly challenge U.S. might. — World Trends & Forecasts, Mar-Apr, 2006, p. 6

Computer viruses in ordinary objects may become a terrorist weapon. As more and more things ranging from luggage to pets have radio-frequency identification tags, new opportunities are emerging for tampering, security disruptions, or even terrorist attacks. A single piece of luggage infected with a computer virus could disrupt an airport’s baggage-handling database. — World Trends & Forecasts, July-Aug 2006, p. 14

TECHNOLOGY

We’ll incorporate wireless technology into our thought processing by 2030. In the next 25 years, we’ll learn how to augment our 100 trillion very slow interneuronal connections with high-speed virtual connections via nanorobotics. This will allow us to greatly boost our pattern-recognition abilities, memories, and overall thinking capacity, as well as to directly interface with powerful forms of computer intelligence and with each other. By the end of the 2030s, we will be able to move beyond the basic architecture of the brain’s neural regions. — Ray Kurzweil, “The Future of Human— Machine Intelligence,” Mar-Apr 2006, p. 43

Within the next three decades, people will begin experimenting more freely and recklessly with nano-electronic personal enhancement. One type of nano-device people might try to incorporate into their biological functioning could be artificial blood cells (respirocytes), which could greatly enhance human performance. Unfortunately, they could also cause overheating of the body and breakdowns. — Jerome C. Glenn and Theodore J. Gordon, “Update on the State of the Future,” Jan-Feb 2006, p. 23

We will soon be able to build computer models of our preferences, opinions, and mental associations. These new technologies will mark the convergence of cognitive science and more traditional methods of psychology. Further in the future, we can expect the development of rigorous means for recording and classifying all of a person’s 50,000 episodic memories—that is, memories of specific events and the feelings that accompanied them. — William Sims Bainbridge, “Cyberimmortality: Science, Religion, and the Battle to Save Our Souls,” Mar-Apr 2006, p. 25

Computers will be more than 1,000 times more powerful in a decade, one million times more powerful in 20 years, and one billion times more powerful in 30 years. By then, some machines might have capabilities to rival the human mind, giving rise to a new intelligent species to share the planet with us. — Damien Broderick, “Nanofactories, Gang Wars, and Feelies,” Mar-Apr 2006, p. 47

Human babies may be genetically manufactured by the end of the century. Nations have historically competed for technological supremacy, as seen in the twentieth century with the nuclear arms and space races. This competition will likely continue with biotechnology. If China, for instance, pursues a goal of creating a workforce with superior intelligence, then ethical qualms about engineering human beings may be brushed aside in other countries that don’t want to fall behind in the smart-baby race. However, geneticist Ian Wilmut believes that, due to the subtle nature of the human body and particularly the human brain, any attempt to design “super” babies will most likely result in a new generation afflicted with completely avoidable birth defects. — Eric G. Swedin, “Designing Babies: A Eugenics Race with China?” May-June 2006, p. 21; Patrick Tucker, “Designer Babies and 21st Century Cures” (review of After Dolly by Ian Wilmut), Sep-Oct 2006, p. 48

From prosthetic aids to mind programming? Cochlear implants, which meliorate hearing loss, are a harbinger of future human— machine interfaces. Currently, such devices operate one-way, with sensors picking up data and delivering it to the user’s brain. But in the future, neural devices could be wirelessly connected to a computer, delivering information from your brain to a network. Our thoughts would thus become visible to all. — Michael Chorost, “The Mind-Programmable Era,” May-June 2006, p. 68

TRANSPORTATION

A rise of disabled Americans will strain public transportation systems. By the year 2025, the number of Americans aged 65 or older will expand from 35 million to more than 65 million, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Individuals in that age group are more than twice as likely to have a disability as those aged 16 to 65. If that figure remains unchanged, the number of disabled people living in the United States will grow to 24 million over the course of the next 20 years. Rising rates of outpatient care and chronic illness point to an increased demand for public transportation as well as special public transportation services in the coming decades. — World Trends & Forecasts, Nov-Dec 2005, p. 10

Wireless technologies will improve highway safety. Communications technology will enable motor vehicles to exchange information with each other, such as their proximity and speed. DaimlerChrysler is developing one such system, called CarTalk 2000. The data exchange would occur through ad hoc networks that would spring to life as cars came near each other. — Tomorrow in Brief, Nov-Dec 2005, p. 2

Future cars may run on exhaust fumes. A device that uses vehicle exhaust to spin a turbine for generating electricity could allow future cars to literally run on fumes. Up to a third of the power that a conventional engine produces is wasted in exhaust fumes. Turning those fumes into a power source could cut fuel consumption by as much as 10%, according to researchers. — World Trends & Forecasts, May-June 2006, p. 12

Sports cars will be more environmentally friendly thanks to advances that will make hydrogen-powered fuel cells smaller and lighter. The sleek styling of sports cars could also make it cool for motorists to go green. — Tomorrow in Brief, May-June 2006, p. 2

VALUES AND CULTURE

Workers will increasingly choose more time over more money. The productivity boom in the U.S. economy during the twentieth century created a massive consumer culture—people made more money, so they bought more stuff. In the twenty-first century, however, workers may increasingly choose to trade higher salaries for more time with their families. Nearly a third of U.S. workers recently polled said they would prefer more time off rather than more hours of paid employment. — Robert D. Atkinson, “Building a More-Humane Economy,” May-June 2006, p. 48

The production of art will increase as the audience for art shrinks. New media such as video, virtual reality, and hyperlinked text will create new methods for artistic expression. But fine art is facing increased competition for viewers’ time and attention among “easier” forms of leisure, such as videogames and television, according to a RAND Corporation report, “A Portrait of the Visual Arts.” — World Trends & Forecasts, Jan-Feb 2006, p. 10

The future of antiquities is bleak. Archaeologists may one day see a world where no culturally significant site has been left unpillaged, warns cultural reporter Roger Atwood in Stealing History. Tourists, tomb raiders, and treasure hunters aren’t the only threats to a culture’s antiquities. Individuals living in poverty near valued monuments or other treasures increasingly treat these relics as a potential source of cash. Reducing illegal trade in antiquities will require better international cooperation among governments, museums, and private collectors. — World Trends & Forecasts, May-June 2006, p. 9

Religious tolerance will increase—but not right away. The world’s major religions share values but not philosophies, and their conflicting ideologies will continue to prevent peaceful coexistence in many societies. But as global communications and interaction among diverse peoples grows, tolerance is more likely to increase over the long term. — Thomas R. McFaul, “Religion in the Future Global Civilization,” Sep-Oct 2006, p. 36

Intolerance is accelerating along with growth of fundamentalist populations. The fastest-growing religions today tend to be those espousing the most-fundamentalist and exclusivist points of view, making the hope for peace tenuous. Separating religion from political decision making, as has largely been done in Europe, could help prevent institutionalized intolerance. — Roy Speckhardt, “Toward a More Inclusive Future,” Sep-Oct 2006, p. 37

Tolerance is accelerating along with interaction of diverse populations. Global economics and communications are increasing business and social interaction across religions. This increased exposure will likely beget increased interreligious tolerance. — Harold G. Koenig, “Finding Tolerance by Respecting Diversity,” Sep-Oct 2006, p. 37

WORK

The robotic workforce will change how your boss values you. As robots and intelligent software increasingly emulate the knowledge work that humans can do, businesses will “hire” whatever type of mind that can do the work — robotic or human. Future human workers may collaborate with robotic minds on projects for a variety of enterprises, rather than work for a single employer. — Arnold Brown, “The Robotic Economy: Brave New World or a Return to Slavery?” July-Aug 2006, p. 53

Advances in technology will give rise to a new era of “hyperjobs.” These new occupations will emphasize uniquely human skills over mere technical abilities. Hyper-human skills might include creativity, symbolic thinking, and responsibility. For example, the job of nursing may involve much less paperwork than it does today, and much more symptom detection; surgeons could become extinct, replaced by surgical robots, but enjoy new occupations, such as surgical procedure developers. — Richard W. Samson, “Hyperjobs: The New Higher-Level Work and How to Grow Into It” Nov-Dec 2005, p. 41

Outsourcing will actually create jobs. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has estimated that total U.S. employment is likely to increase from 144 million jobs in 2002 to 165 million by 2012, largely as a result of efficiencies gained through outsourcing. — John A. Challenger, “Working in the Future: How Today’s Trends Are Shaping Tomorrow’s Jobs,” Nov-Dec 2005, p. 47

Superlongevity will have a growing influence on career choices. Realizing that their careers might extend for 50 years or more, younger careerists, even those not yet ready for full-time employment, will experiment with unique career patterns. More young people will opt to not only pursue postgraduate education, they may remain in school well into their 20s or early 30s in order to train for the complex jobs required in our advanced society. More people in their 50s will also return to school to start new careers. — Michael G. Zey, “The Superlongevity Revolution: How It Will Change Our Lives,” Nov-Dec 2005, p. 16

SPECIAL FOCUS ON CHINA AND INDIA

Economically, China and India will surpass Japan and the United States within the next 30 years. Both China and India have emerged rapidly from deep poverty to become dominant players on the world’s economic and political scene. India’s economy is predicted to surpass Japan’s by 2032, and China could surpass the U.S. economy by 2039. — Marvin J. Cetron and Owen Davies, “The Dragon vs. the Tiger: China and India Reshape the Global Economy,” July-Aug 2006, p. 40

China will surpass the U.S. as world’s leading consumer. As a nation, China already outconsumes the United States on basic commodities such as food, energy, meat, grain, oil, coal, and steel. As individuals, Americans still lead the world in consumption, but if the Chinese economy continues its rapid growth, per-person consumption levels will match or surpass those of the U.S. with dire impacts on the global environment. — Lester R. Brown, “Rescuing a Planet Under Stress,” July-Aug 2006, p. 19

More recognizable brand names will come from China. American firms have outsourced so much of their production to the Chinese that they have actually groomed their future competitors. Following the branding success of firms like Lenovo, look out for more uniquely Chinese brands to show up across all sectors of the consumer economy, including Changhong Electric (an electronics supplier to Wal-Mart), Xi’an Aircraft (a Boeing subcontractor), and Hair (an appliance manufacturer). — World Trends & Forecasts, Jan-Feb 2006, p. 12

Energy choices will make or break Chinese and Indian economies. Heavy reliance on fossil fuels, particularly coal, could undermine the investments that China and India have made in growing their economies. A new push toward developing the rich potential of solar and wind energy systems over the next 10 years could help these countries leapfrog ahead of the West, according to the Worldwatch Institute. — “Energy Challenges for China and India,” July-Aug 2006, p. 41

Dwindling supplies of water in China raise concerns for the global economy. With uneven development across China, the most water-intensive industries and densest population are in regions where water is scarcest. The result is higher prices for commodities and goods exported from China, so the costs of resource and environmental mismanagement are transferred to the rest of the world. — World Trends & Forecasts, Sep-Oct 2006, p. 8

China and India will be exceptions to the global urbanization trend. Nearly half of the world’s residents will live in cities by 2030, according to demographer Philippe Bocquier. (This forecast is substantially lower than the UN’s previous estimate.) However, this urbanization trend is not occurring in the two countries with the largest populations—China and India. Nine out of 10 countries that will contribute more than half of all urban growth between 2025 and 2030 are developing countries: Indonesia, Pakistan, Brazil, Nigeria, Mexico, Ethiopia, Iran, Colombia, and Korea (the tenth is Germany). According to UN estimates, the urban population of China is expected to increase by 293 million before the year 2025, but Bocquier projects the number will be closer to 74 million. — World Trends & Forecasts, Nov-Dec 2005, p. 11

The world economy will experience intense “Chinafication.” China’s growing consumer class and its monopoly on cheap labor in manufacturing give it enormous clout in the market for critical resources. Competitors among developed countries may increasingly cry foul over Chinese trade policies, currency manipulation, and piracy of intellectual property. — Karl Albrecht, “Eight Supertrends Shaping the Future of Business,” Sep-Oct 2006, p. 26

Outlook for Asia: China for the short term, India for the long term. By 2025, both countries will be stronger, wealthier, freer, and more stable than they are today, but India’s unique assets—such as widespread use of English, a democratic government, and relative transparency of its institutions — make it more economically viable farther out. — Marvin J. Cetron and Owen Davies, “The Dragon vs. the Tiger: China and India Reshape the Global Economy,” July-Aug 2006, p. 46

Preparing for Bird Flu Pandemic

A global flu pandemic is likely and could cost 150 million lives. More than half of U.S. doctors surveyed recently said a pandemic will arrive within the next four years. Public-health officials are particularly concerned about H5N1 bird flu, which is spreading globally and may evolve into a deadly human strain. Death toll projections range from 5 million to 150 million, depending on how well national and local governments prepare. — Tyler A. Kokjohn and Kimbal E. Cooper, “In the Shadow of Pandemic,” Sep-Oct 2006, p. 53

Bird flu pandemic could be devastating to agricultural economies. The 2003 outbreak of bird flu in Vietnam caused a 15% drop in poultry production, or about $50 million. If similar declines occur in Indonesia, the costs to poultry farming could be as high as $500 million. — Tyler A. Kokjohn and Kimbal E. Cooper, “In the Shadow of Pandemic,” Sep-Oct 2006, p. 54

Telecommuting could avert economic disaster from bird flu pandemic. Once a pandemic hits a developed economy such as the United States, absenteeism is likely to skyrocket. To minimize the impacts on businesses, firms could begin now to switch to a predominantly telecommuting workforce, so that people could stay productive while avoiding exposure to infected colleagues. — “Absenteeism in the Wake of Outbreak,” Sep-Oct 2006, p. 56

NEW JOB TITLES

Here are a few potential future occupations, gleaned from THE FUTURIST in the past year.

Richard A. Samson (“Hyperjobs: The New Higher-Level Work and How to Get Into It,” Nov-Dec 2005):

• Bioaesthetic Coach
• Experience Designer
• Health-Enhancement Mentor
• Intercommunity Farmer
• Personal Genome Optimizer
• John A. Challenger (“Working in the Future: How Today’s Trends Are Shaping
• Tomorrow’s Jobs,” Nov-Dec 2005):
• Chief Health Officer
• Coordinator of Workforce Development and Continuing Education
• Corporate Historian
• Manager of Diversity
• Manager of Faith-Based Relations and Initiatives
• Offshore Outsourcing Coordinator
Joyce Gioia and Roger Herman (“Career Planning for the 21st Century,” Nov-Dec 2005):
• Chief Innovation Officer
• Executive Chef, Space Airline
• Global Work Process Coordinator
• Skycar Mechanic
• Telemedicine Technician
• Transhumanist Designer/Technician
• Underwater Hotel Manager
• Vice President of Experiences
____________________________________

OUTLOOK 2006
____________________________________

BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS

Where the jobs will be. Biotech and pharmaceutical workers, radiology specialists, gerontologists, and nurses will see big demand for their skills in the coming decade, as baby boomers age and increase the demand for medical attention. By 2020, the United States alone will require 2.8 million new nurses, up from 2 million needed right now. — World Trends & Forecasts, May-June 2005, p. 12

Job boom foreseen in solar industries. The job outlook looks bright for solar industries, with some 42,000 new U.S. jobs by 2015. In the next decade, the U.S. solar industry could generate more than $34 billion in new manufacturing investments. Solar power could displace 6 trillion cubic feet of natural gas by 2025, saving U.S. consumers approximately $64 billion. — Futurist Update, Mar 2005

New opportunities for “ageless aging.” Among the new business opportunities that could arise to cater to the boomers who want to age without growing old: Antiaging spas, intergenerational communes, and therapeutic cloning for kidneys, livers, and other replacement body parts. — Ken Dychtwald, “Ageless Aging: The Next Era of Retirement,” July-Aug 2005, p. 18

A new profession may rise to help you manage your personal information. Like a mutual-funds manager, personal-information managers may emerge to protect your valuable personal data from identity thieves—and leverage it with advertisers and others who want a piece of your attention. — Brian Mulconrey, “Your Personal Information: Managing Your Most Valuable Asset,” Sep-Oct 2005, p. 24

The rise of an open-source workforce. Information technologies and open collaboration are toppling traditional business hierarchies. Increasingly, individuals will become “extra-preneurs,” members of virtual networks that collaborate on projects that not only benefit their organizations but also add value to their current and future jobs. — David Pearce Snyder, “Extra-Preneurship: Reinventing Enterprise for the Information Age,” July-Aug 2005, p. 47

Retirement is retiring. Fewer older workers expect to be able to retire early, so organizations will increasingly need to help workers revise their career-planning strategies. Abandoning compulsory retirement ages within companies is a likely step. — World Trends & Forecasts, Jan-Feb 2005, p. 15

Paying for the elderly. By 2020, nations with generous pension policies will find that growing numbers of retirees will severely hinder their ability to commit funds to other social needs, such as food programs for the poor. Italy, Australia, and France will struggle, but Japan, Norway, and Sweden have already made moves to avert a pension crisis by raising the average retirement age. — World Trends & Forecasts, Mar-Apr 2005, p. 7

DEMOGRAPHY

Adulthood will grow increasingly elusive. If “adulthood” means having a lucrative job, financial independence, and the ability to support a family as requisite factors, then an increasing number of young Americans will find it harder to achieve. The growing demand for advanced education, coupled with higher costs and disappearing education subsidies, is forcing young people to stay in school longer before they can find well-paying jobs. — World Trends & Forecasts, Nov-Dec 2004, p. 11

The gender gap among older Americans may narrow. Currently, women over the age of 80 outnumber their male counterparts by 2.5 to 1. But that may change as cures are developed for heart disease, prostate cancer, and other ailments that typically shorten men’s life spans compared with women’s. — Eric Garland, “Reinventing Sex: New Technologies and Changing Attitudes,” Nov-Dec 2004, p. 44

Males may be doomed by genetics. The human Y chromosome—that which defines the male—is on a long-term spiral of decay, accumulating mutations that may ultimately render males infertile (and extinct). Adam’s Curse author Bryan Sykes gives humanity another 125,000 years to save the male of the species, perhaps through the creation of a new, more stable sex chromosome to support the crucial male-forming genes. — World Trends & Forecasts, Mar-Apr 2005, p. 9

“Elder boom” in prisons will increase. Tough sentencing laws in the United States are putting more people behind bars for longer periods of time, creating an elder boom in prisons. This is creating a health-care problem, since few penal institutions are currently set up to handle geriatric problems. — Konrad M. Kressley, “Aging and Public Institutions,” Sep-Oct 2005, p. 30

Military bases may be transformed into veterans’ retirement enclaves. Retired service members now nearly match the populations of active-duty military personnel clustering near U.S. bases. In some areas, like Texas, Florida, and metropolitan Washington, D.C. retirees already outnumber active-duty members. This could be a boon for the bases: The retirees typically spend more money on higher-ticket items at base exchanges. — Konrad M. Kressley, “Aging and Public Institutions,” Sep-Oct 2005, p. 30

Mass migration will redistribute the world’s population. There are about 80 million international migrant workers in the world today, and the widespread movement of people from poor countries to richer ones is exacerbating social and economic problems in the host regions. Immigrant workers who perform poorly become a strain on social security systems, while those who do well often divert their financial resources back to their home countries, creating resentment among their new neighbors. — Marvin J. Cetron and Owen Davies, “Trends Now Shaping the Future: Economic, Societal, and Environmental Trends,” Mar-Apr 2005, p. 29

THE DEVELOPING WORLD

Progress in meeting global development targets. Some countries have met or surpassed many of the UN Millennium Development Goals for reducing poverty, improving health, and ensuring environmental sustainability. By 2001, Egypt had met the 2015 objective of reducing hunger from 5% of the population to 3%, and Bangladesh had reduced the proportion of its population without access to improved water sources from 6% to 3%. — World Trends & Forecasts, July-Aug 2005, p. 6

Growth of Latin American science research could fuel the region’s future economic growth. Citations of science and engineering research by Latin Americans increased by nearly 200% between 1988 and 2001, significantly outpacing authors in other developing regions of the world. The surge of science scholarship in the region is considered an indicator of nations’ growing commitment to investing in science and engineering as an engine for development. — World Trends & Forecasts, Mar-Apr 2005, p. 10

“Diseases of affluence” will kill more poor people. The number of people in developing countries experiencing obesity and related diseases—such as diabetes, cancer, and heart disease—has grown to 115 million now from essentially none two generations ago. These “diseases of affluence” occur as diets change away from high-quality foods, such as whole grains, fiber, and fruits and vegetables. By 2030, these diseases could become the primary killers of poor people around the world. — World Trends & Forecasts, May-June 2005, p. 15

African workforce imperiled. In the African countries hardest hit by HIV/AIDS, the workforce could shrink by up to 40% by 2015. Multinational corporations with employees in Africa may increasingly find themselves at the forefront of efforts to combat the AIDS crisis. — Tomorrow in Brief, Mar-Apr 2005, p. 2

Tackling high death rates could help reduce poverty. One of the major reasons poor countries have a hard time breaking out of the poverty trap is persistently high death rates. When people die young, businesses and institutions fail to think in the long term and invest in opportunities that could promote growth, since there may not be enough workers to support the effort. To promote economic development, researchers recommend that nations improve health services that could lower mortality rates. — World Trends & Forecasts, July-Aug 2005, p. 10

EDUCATION

More students will migrate for their education. The number of students who will journey abroad to take college courses will triple from 2 million to 6 million a year by 2020. Those students who cannot afford to physically travel to other countries will increasingly look toward online educational opportunities. Demand for transnational education delivered online, via satellite, or though videoconferencing systems will outstrip demand for onshore learning by 6% before 2020. — Tomorrow in Brief, Nov-Dec 2004, p. 2

U.S. science and engineering classes will be dominated by foreign students. In 1999, foreign-born students made up half of all engineering, mathematics, and computer science graduates in the United States, up from one-third in the 1980s. — World Trends & Forecasts, Nov-Dec 2004, p. 9

U.S. public education will face an uphill battle for survival. States now spend only a tenth of the $322 billion that will be needed to repair ailing school facilities in the United States, build new facilities where they are needed, and outfit schools with modern technology, according to the National Education Association. One result could be an acceleration of the trend toward more private- and home-schooled kids. — John C. Lundt, “Learning for Ourselves: A New Paradigm for Education,” Nov-Dec 2004, p. 20

The classroom of the future will have no walls, no clocks, and no age segregation. More and more high-school students are leaving the classroom in favor of age-diverse workshops and seminars that focus on their specific interests. Additionally, the traditional 9-to-3 school day will fade as more students learn to take advantage of real-time technology and the availability of distance education to schedule their “class” sessions on their own terms. — John C. Lundt, “Learning for Ourselves: A New Paradigm for Education,” Nov-Dec 2004, p. 22

Instant messaging and e-mail will bring kids to the head of the class. Cell phones and personal digital assistants might be considered distractions to some teachers, but in one trial at Kansas State University, such devices helped some students become more actively engaged with teachers and classmates. In digitally enhanced classrooms, instructors will be able to give real-time quizzes and get instant feedback so they can adjust their lesson plans. — World Trends & Forecasts, July-Aug 2005, p. 9

ENVIRONMENT

Urban heat waves will get hotter and last longer. Large urban centers like Chicago and Paris will experience an average of 25% more heat waves a year in the twenty-first century compared with the twentieth, according to the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research. And those heat waves will last, on average, nine days longer. — World Trends & Forecasts, Nov-Dec 2004, p. 7

Designer plants will be more salt tolerant, reducing strains on freshwater supplies. Agricultural researchers in the United States are studying a range of salt-tolerant, or halophytic, flowers. Commercial species of flowers that can grow in salty environments could reduce costs for the cut-flower industry, preserve freshwater for more critical uses, and improve the efficiency of nurseries. The new technology will be of particular benefit to plant growers in coastal regions who must continually contend with salt water seeping into freshwater sources. — World Trends & Forecasts, Jan-Feb 2005, p. 6

Cell phones for compost. Discarded cell phones are a growing environmental problem, so researchers in the United Kingdom have developed phones with biodegradable materials. They even implanted a seed in the phone casing so that eventually flowers will bloom from the abandoned devices. — Tomorrow in Brief, Mar-Apr 2005, p. 2

Undoing humans’ damage to lakes could take a thousand years. Extensive fertilizer use in the past six decades has led to a buildup of phosphorus in soils that runs off into lakes and chokes off their oxygen. The damage, called eutrophication, is so extensive that it could take a millennium to repair. Proposed solutions include maintaining larger buffers between lakelands and agricultural land and restoring wetlands. — Tomorrow in Brief, Sep-Oct 2005, p. 2

HEALTH

Vaccines against the rotavirus could save thousands of the world’s children in the next decade. Children in developing countries contract the rotavirus at a younger age, and at greater rates, than do children of industrialized countries. Nearly 95% of children worldwide are infected by five years of age, and nearly half a million children across the world die of rotavirus each year. Vaccines currently under development could be incorporated into routine childhood immunization programs within three years, according to the Pan American Health Organization. — World Trends & Forecasts, Nov-Dec 2004, p. 14

People will enjoy better sex, and do so for many more years. Researchers at Stanford University and corporations like Immersion are developing virtual-reality technologies that promise to radically augment our sex lives. Due to changing social attitudes, our discussions about sex will be more open, more tolerant, better informed, and less chauvinistic. Additionally, because medical technology will likely expand the average life span beyond the age of 95, the average person in the future will be sexually active for almost 80 years. — Eric Garland, “Reinventing Sex: New Technologies and Changing Attitudes,” Nov-Dec 2004, p. 42

Osteoporosis epidemic ahead. By 2020, half of all Americans could be at risk for fractures due to osteoporosis or low bone mass. Researchers believe that far more people have the condition than are diagnosed with it. Bone diseases that impair physical movement often precipitate a health decline, and about 20% of senior citizens who suffer a hip fracture die within a year. Prevention includes a diet rich with calcium and vitamin D, 30 minutes a day of physical activity, and maintaining a healthy weight. — World Trends & Forecasts, Mar-Apr 2005, p. 11

Healthy bodies yield smarter brains. Kids who are more physically fit may perform better on academic tests than their more sedentary peers. Brain researchers have discovered that fitter children can process stimuli more quickly and make fewer errors on tests than less-fit kids, suggesting that physical activity could have a positive role in education. — World Trends & Forecasts, Mar-Apr 2005, p. 11

U.S. nursing homes could be offshored, and aging baby boomers may increasingly become medical tourists. A shortage of health-care workers in the United States and a highly mobile culture will lead future senior citizens to hit the road for their health. Elderly patients seeking both chronic and acute health care will travel to facilities in lower-cost developing countries that have increasingly sophisticated medical services. — Konrad M. Kressley, “Aging and Public Institutions,” Sep-Oct 2005, p. 32

Alzheimer’s: The bad news about living longer. As life spans increase, more people are surviving into the years most prone to Alzheimer’s disease. In developed countries, about 2% of the population is affected. By 2054, there may be three times as many Alzheimer’s patients. — Tyler A. Kokjohn and Kimbal E. Cooper, “The Outlook for Alzheimer’s Disease,” Sep-Oct 2005, p. 34

Better understanding of Alzheimer’s causes could lead to prevention. Researchers are gaining a clearer picture of the causes underlying Alzheimer’s disease, which many now believe is linked to the same kinds of plaques that clog arteries. Actions to prevent atherosclerosis, such as improving diet and fitness, may thus also help prevent Alzheimer’s. — Tyler A. Kokjohn and Kimbal E. Cooper, “The Outlook for Alzheimer’s Disease,” Sep-Oct 2005, p. 36

Death by global warming. Climate changes alone could cause a 4.5% increase in the number of summer ozone-related deaths in the New York metropolitan area by 2050. — Futurist Update, Dec 2004

Life expectancy in the U.S. could reverse due to the obesity epidemic. Predictions about Social Security’s tenuous future don’t consider the possible effects of rising obesity, now poised to begin reversing a long-term trend toward increased longevity in the United States. Life expectancy may shorten by two to five years by the middle of the century, and the dramatic rise in obesity is considered the primary culprit. — Futurist Update, Apr 2005

INFORMATION SOCIETY

The Digital Era arises. Digital media will dominate communications by 2010, altering all aspects of human culture. The Digital Era will be characterized by interconnectivity, complexity, acceleration of human activity, convergence of media, and rising significance of intangibles such as reputation. — M. Rex Miller, “The Digital Dynamic: How Communications Media Shape Our World,” May-June 2005, p. 33

Future readers will have access to a more abundant and diverse array of texts. Rapid progress in translating technology is bringing us ever closer to the day when it will be possible to read anything ever “published” by anyone at any time of day or night. Online textbook sites will come to replace more traditional textbooks, which are already on the way out altogether. — Parker Rossman, “Beyond the Book: Electronic Textbooks Will Bring Worldwide Learning,” Jan-Feb 2005, p. 19

Forget research—get a searchbot. Digital electronic assistant programs that surf the Net and store information on our behalf will be must-have items in the future. These “searchbots” will enable individuals to amass entire personal digital libraries around a given subject without having to do anything but set a few key search guidelines. — Parker Rossman, “Beyond the Book: Electronic Textbooks Will Bring Worldwide Learning,” Jan-Feb 2005, p. 22

The rise of podcasting. The nascent satellite-radio business has already sent commercial radio into a sweat, but now podcasting could give satellite radio a run for its money. With lower user costs and more portability than satellite services, subscription-based podcasts allow music and other programming to be sent directly to consumers’ players and let the audience choose what to hear and when. Podcasting could reach 12.3 million U.S. households by 2010. — Tomorrow in Brief, July-Aug 2005, p. 2

RESOURCES

Ocean-based energy is the wave of the future. Current and potential markets for offshore wind and tidal power will grow considerably in the next five years. Researchers have projected 5,800 megawatts of offshore renewable-energy capacity will be installed between 2004 and 2008, of which 99% will be in the form of offshore wind farms. Worldwide, the offshore wind market is expected to grow to $3 billion a year by 2008. — Anthony T. Jones and Adam Westwood, “Power from Oceans,” Jan-Feb 2005, p. 37

Pulling the plug on electric utilities. The rise of hydrogen technologies that give households and businesses more energy independence could send utilities scrambling. Energy may become a “cottage industry” as companies add an assortment of technologies to their portfolios, including solar, wind, wave, and biomass sources for powering their own hydrogen production. — Wayne A. English, “Are Electric Utilities Obsolete?” Mar-Apr 2005, p. 16

The clean-energy economy is coming. There is only about 40 years’ worth of oil left in the ground, so action is needed now to plan for a smooth transition to alternatives, notably hydrogen, according to industry analysts. A three-phase strategy for launching the world into the Hydrogen Age would include deploying all currently available energy technologies and expanding research, then expanding the hydrogen infrastructure beyond core cities, and then transforming entire societies into hydrogen consumers and providers. — Julian Gresser and James A. Cusumano, “Hydrogen and the New Energy Economy,” Mar-Apr 2005, p. 19

Less supply, more demand for food will threaten the global economy. As the world economy continues expanding, future populations will demand a higher quality of food. But meeting that demand will be problematic, as farmers leave the profession for richer opportunities in cities and as climate warming impairs productivity of dwindling agricultural lands. — Lester R. Brown, “Pushing Beyond the Earth’s Limits,” May-June 2005, p. 18

Power plants and greenhouses could double as desalination plants. As the demand for fresh water increases worldwide, desalination plants will need to dramatically improve their efficiency. Researchers have recently demonstrated a system that can process salt water into fresh using excess heat from electric power plants. In another system, seawater used to cool condensers in a greenhouse is then converted into freshwater. — World Trends & Forecasts, July-Aug 2005, p. 12

Superconducting solution for meeting tomorrow’s energy demand. Global demand for energy will likely double in the next 50 years. One proposed solution for meeting this growing demand without destroying the environment in the process is to build a superconducting pipeline, or SuperGrid, that would transport electricity instead of petroleum. The key is the use of superconducting cables, which would be buried underground to provide more protection against weather-related blackouts. — World Trends & Forecasts, Sep-Oct 2005, p. 7

SECURITY AND TERRORISM

Terrorist acts will become more frequent, more violent. The forces contributing to militancy in Muslim lands—overcrowding, underemployment, and resource scarcity—are becoming more severe. Because Western nations’ policies are often perceived as the underlying causes of these problems, countries such as the United States should expect to be the targets of more acts of terrorism for at least the next 20 years. — Marvin J. Cetron and Owen Davies, “Trends Now Shaping the Future: Economic, Societal, and Environmental Trends,” Mar-Apr 2005, p. 33

Global partnerships against terrorism will grow stronger. Though nations will likely continue to bicker over trade, the environment, and foreign policy, they will increasingly cooperate to curb terrorism and reverse nuclear proliferation. The intelligence and police departments of more than 170 nations already work together to share information about terror suspects and coordinate antiterrorist initiatives. Fifty-five nations have changed their domestic laws to accommodate the global pursuit of terrorists. — World Trends & Forecasts, Nov-Dec 2004, p. 12
Frightened out of our privacy? Security may trump privacy in the age of terrorism. Fear of both terrorism and violent crime has contributed to growing acceptance of surveillance in public areas. In Britain, some 1.5 million surveillance cameras now monitor a wide range of public areas, including schools, office buildings, streets, and shops. — Marvin J. Cetron and Owen Davies, “Trends Now Shaping the Future: Economic, Societal, and Environmental Trends,” Mar-Apr 2005, p. 37

Smart surveillance cameras could thwart crime. Future surveillance cameras will not only catch a criminal, but also stop the culprit from committing a crime. Closed-circuit cameras equipped with expert-system image analysis will be able to recognize unusual activity, such as violent behavior or glass breaking. Then the smart cameras will call the police to investigate. — World Trends & Forecasts, May-June 2005, p. 10

Technologies may help militarize the police. High-tech “spyware” and other surveillance equipment used by the military will increasingly make its way into policing, including global positioning satellites and unmanned aerial drones. This will keep officers safer and enable them to track suspects more easily, but private citizens may demand greater accountability and ethics in law enforcement. — Gene Stephens, “Policing the Future: Law Enforcement’s New Challenges,” Mar-Apr 2005, p. 55

Lasers could soon be used to detect explosives safely, quickly, and inexpensively. A team of University of Florida researchers has developed a new device that detects TNT using photoluminescence spectroscopy—casting light on objects and measuring the wavelength of the light that returns. The technology could allow security professionals to identify explosives faster, more accurately, and at safer distances. — Tomorrow in Brief, Jan-Feb 2005, p. 2

Combating radicalism with moderation. To reduce the threat of terrorism, the RAND Corporation recommends that the international community and moderates within Muslim nations step up to foster reform in schools and mosques, promote international networks for liberal and moderate Muslims, and expand economic opportunities for young people in Muslim countries. — World Trends & Forecasts, May-June 2005, p. 17

Security threats extend beyond cities. Future terrorist attacks may target rural areas and not just cities. Among the most plausible or devastating attacks identified by U.S.

Department of Homeland Security:

• Blowing up chlorine tanks.
• Spreading disease in airports, sports venues, and train stations.
• Infecting livestock with diseases.
• Detonating a nuclear device in a major city.
• Releasing nerve gas in an office building.
• Bombing a sports arena.

—Futurist Update, Apr 2005

TECHNOLOGY AND SCIENCE

Nanomedics will come to the aid of wounded soldiers. Researchers at MIT are developing nanobots as part of an Objective Force Warrior Program. These microscopic robots may one day be able to transport specific drugs directly to affected tissue to perform precision elimination of damaged cells. Nanobots could also broadcast timely information about a soldier’s health to medics miles away. — World Trends & Forecasts, Nov-Dec 2004, p. 16

Let there be light-emitting diodes. Energy-efficient sunlight-simulating LEDs will provide 90% of the world’s lighting by 2025. LEDs last 20 times as long as ordinary light bulbs. Because they use gallium nitride rather than expensive sapphire, they could cut in half the cost of lighting homes and offices. — Tomorrow in Brief, Mar-Apr 2005, p. 2

Interactive reality TV will make you the star. The next generation of interactive video technology will blend the viewer’s image directly into the action on screen. A camera pointed at the viewer would take that image and superimpose it digitally into a video playing on television. Such technology could also improve training of doctors, athletes, soldiers, and others who could benefit from the realistic simulations. — Tomorrow in Brief, May-June 2005, p. 2

Roll-up displays for TV, cell phones, pocket computers. Flexible electronic thin film could soon make it easy to roll up the TV or computer monitor and put it out of the way. Electronic paper using the thin-film display technology would also be used in signs that need to be changed quickly, such as in-store displays or traffic notices. — World Trends & Forecasts, May-June 2005, p. 9

Fly us to the Moon. Lunar vacations may become a reality by the 2020s, creating all new industries and jobs. Public-sector thinking about space commercialization has traditionally focused on manufacturing, energy production, and the like, but private-sector development of space tourism is more likely to capture the public’s imagination, proponents believe. — World Trends & Forecasts, May-June 2005, p. 11

Smarter, safer, cleaner transportation. Automobile designers will produce more-efficient vehicles, and by doing so will begin to reduce the demand for oil by 2008. Smart-car technologies will also begin reducing deaths due to automobile accidents in Europe by 2010, and in the United States slightly later. — Marvin J. Cetron and Owen Davies, “Trends Now Shaping the Future: Technological, Workplace, Management, and Institutional Trends,” May-June 2005, p. 39

Dining with nanotech. Among the possible uses for future nanotechnology will be to rearrange the atoms of materials in the waste stream into consumable products like milk. Countertop synthesizers could one day create meats and vegetables without killing animals or destroying habitats. Food would be synthesized with the correct vitamins and minerals, and even created already cooked. — J. Storrs Hall, “What’s Next for Nanotechnology,” July-Aug 2005, p. 29

“Super Tech” scenario: Drugs, not exercise. Who needs a personal trainer when drugs can keep us fit? In a “Super Tech” scenario, pharmaceutical technologies could be so advanced by 2050 that humans may never need exercise again, suggest Joel Barker and Scott W. Erickson, authors of Five Regions of the Future. — “Racing Toward a Super-Tech Future?” Book Review, July-Aug 2005, p. 59

Virtual mirror reveals your future self. What will your lifestyle choices today do to your looks in the future? A new simulation tool created by Accenture Technology’s laboratory in France produces a digital visualization of what junk food, excess alcohol, and lack of exercise will do to your looks. One goal of the “virtual mirror” is to reveal the future consequences of choices and behaviors that can be altered now. — Futurist Update, Mar 2005

VALUES AND LIFESTYLES

More pornography, but a waning pornography industry. Amateur and freelance pornography producers will take advantage of ubiquitous broadband Internet service and inexpensive camera and video equipment to produce adult material more cheaply and distribute it more widely. Future generations will reach sexual maturity with full access to as much erotic material as they want. — Eric Garland, “Reinventing Sex: New Technologies and Changing Attitudes,” Nov-Dec 2004, p. 44

Fewer people will participate in team sports. The demise of the standard working day implies that fewer people will share the same off time. This will prevent clubs and teams from forming or operating in the manner they do currently. The continued rise of individualism will further accelerate the shift away from group and team activities. — Robin Gunston, “Play Ball! How Sports Will Change in the 21st Century,” Jan-Feb 2005, p. 35

Trend of two-income couples may be reversing. Marriages in which both spouses are employed have become the norm in Western economies, but the trend may have peaked—and even begun to reverse. The proportion of married-couple U.S. households in which both husband and wife worked fell from 53.4% in 1997 to 50.9% in 2003. However, the proportion of those households in which only the wife worked has risen three years in a row. Future working couples may be more likely to take turns in the workforce rather than working at the same time. — Marvin J. Cetron and Owen Davies, “Trends Now Shaping the Future: Technological, Workplace, Management, and Institutional Trends,” May-June 2005, p. 45

Dads may take over more at-home caregiving. A small but growing contingent of stay-at-home fathers may set a new pattern for future family life. In the United States, fewer than 100,000 fathers stay at home full time in order to take care of the kids, but research shows that such arrangements have important benefits, such as the formation of longer-lasting bonds between father and child. And unlike with working dads, the mothers who are employed outside the home still maintain strong connections with their kids. — World Trends & Forecasts, Sep-Oct 2005, p. 12

Ethical travelers may leave gentler footprints. International travel is on the rise, and the industry is now carving out an ethical niche for tourists who want to visit other places responsibly. Types of ethical tourism on the rise include ecotourism (visiting conservation sites), pro-poor tourism (engaging in experiences that benefit impoverished citizens of host sites), and responsible tourism (minimizing negative impacts on the local environment and culture). — World Trends & Forecasts, Sep-Oct 2005, p. 14

In the future, we will have more control over our use of time. More-flexible work schedules and 24-hour services will allow people to customize their daily and weekly use of time, and technologies such as digital recorders will let people consume television when they want to and not according to broadcasters’ schedules. — John Robinson and Geoffrey Godbey, “Time in Our Hands,” Sep-Oct 2005, p. 22

In the future, we will have less control over our use of time. Factors contributing to increasing time stress in the future include a growing elderly population that demands caregiving from working adults, terrorism and security-related delays at public facilities, and transportation gridlock in increasingly congested urban and suburban areas. — John Robinson and Geoffrey Godbey, “Time in Our Hands,” Sep-Oct 2005, p. 22

New technologies and social attitudes could lead to better ways to die. Until humans achieve immortality, they must still confront death. New technologies and social mores are offering better ways to die: One proposal is “statutory death,” in which individuals approaching demise would be allowed to voluntarily withdraw from the world and enter a drug- or computer-enhanced “twilife” state of physical passivity with mental stimulation. — Lane Jennings, “Finding Better Ways to Die,” Mar-Apr 2005, p. 46

Virtual Health: Smarter Environments Will Keep an Eye Out for Us

More doctors and hospitals will make use of wireless technologies such as wearable computers and mattresses embedded with sensors to care for patients. This technology will allow for more constant and reliable monitoring of patients’ vital signs. As a result, busy nurses will be freed from the duty of having to constantly ensure that patients are connected to EKGs. — World Trends & Forecasts, Nov-Dec 2004, p. 16

Laptop “doctors” will monitor our vital signs on the go. Your future cell phone or laptop computer could help you track your vital signs and communicate with the doctor whenever something’s amiss. A portable device will monitor your breathing and heart rate via wireless signals, then transmit the information in real time to medical personnel through a cell phone or Internet connection. — Futurist Update, June 2005

The walls will have ears—and eyes, and a tongue to tattle with. Sensors embedded in thin materials could keep track of the vital signs of a room’s occupants. One possible application would be for prisons: Smart jail cells would report when an inmate is having a medical problem or when increases in blood pressure or brain-wave activity warn of impending violence. — World Trends & Forecasts, Sep-Oct 2005, p. 6

End of Literal citation of The Futurist Magazine’s Top-10 Forecast for 2010. [97]

« CHAPTER 8 »
EIGHT STRATEGIC STEPS TO COPE WITH THE FUTURE TODAY!

“... Consequently, organizations that hope to improve how they learn lessons from the future must master at least eight tasks: ONE.- UNDERSTAND THE PRESENT (AND THE PAST). Any attempt to project how a future might evolve necessitates identifying key current forces that are likely to shape that future. Typical key forces include demographic shifts, political and regulatory developments, technology changes, the emergence of new competitors, and changing customers tastes .... TWO.- DESCRIBE A VARIETY OF POTENTIAL FUTURES. Decision makers need to imagine, create and invent descriptions of what various futures might look like, Alternative futures such as different political and economic states of the new Europe or different states of the multimedia or health care industry five years from now provide distinct competitive environments in which to contemplate the consequences of a spectrum of strategies. In the consumer goods case, for example, what if the new Europe were to fragment into regional groups fighting protracted trade wars? If the firm's aggressive growth strategy were designed to capture market share in a united Europe, how would it play out in the new fractious environment? .... THREE.- DELINEATE HOW SUCH FUTURES MIGHT EVOLVE. Specification of a particular future, such as the political and economic state of Europe in the year 2002, presumes some understanding of how that state might evolve ? what would have to happen over the next five years to get from the Europe of today to the Europe of 2002? If a Europe dominated by national, racial, and ethnic tensions were to prevail in 2002, what sequence of actions taken by which social and political groups in which countries would lead to the disintegration? .... FOUR .- IDENTIFY APPROPRIATE INDICATORS TO TRACK. The evolution of each projected future can be tracked by monitoring specific indicators. A Europe driven by religious and ethnic tensions or a Europe avidly accepting political and economic integration will not happen overnight; such political environment evolves. The recognizable precursors of transformation ? pivotal events, measurable changes in attitude, enabling technology ? forewarn observers that a particular future is headed their way before it arrives .... Integrating learning about and from the future into decision making also entails a number of specific tasks, each of which is central to ensuring that scenario learning is connected to decisions and action. FIVE.- LINK TO SPECIFIC DECISIONS. Alternative views of a particular part of the future, such as how the multimedia industry in the United States might unfold, can be linked to specific decisions or issues of strategic importance to the organization in two ways. First, it is essential to derive their implications for decisions the organizations is already making or contemplating. For example, projections of a slowly or rapidly evolving multimedia industry might have different implications for commitments to specific research and development projects. Second, many specific decisions that managers had previously either ignored or downplayed, or had simply not been aware of, may take on crucial significance if an alternative scenario becomes reality. For example, scenarios concerning the future of the multimedia industry might cause the firm in Case 1 to consider making alliances with partners owning particular technologies that are critical to specific product development. SIX .- Link to Analysis Processes. Understanding alternative futures and how they might unfold must be linked to the key analysis processes. As how they might unfold must be linked to the key analysis processes. As we shall see in Chapter 2, scenarios provide direct input to the identification, development, choice, and execution of strategy alternatives, to issues management and to capital allocation decisions .... SEVEN .- LINK TO ORGANIZATIONAL PROCEDURES. A related means of ensuring that scenario learning is not an end in itself is to design organizational procedures that encourage widespread participation in scenario development sharing of the insights the developers gain. For example, it's a good practice to ask management teams performing business analysis to pool their insights, craft scenarios on specific business issues, write them up, and communicate their content to top management and to mangers throughout the organization. It's even more crucial to incorporate such scenario learning into ongoing organizational procedures such as task forces, committees, and other groups that come together to understand the world around them. For instance, technology task forces charged with projecting technology developments and identifying potential strategy implications routinely use scenario methodology. But until representatives from different business units, different organizational levels, and various functions ? such as finance, manufacturing, and marketing ? assimilate the significance of the various scenarios, the organization will not integrate scenario learning into a new communal understanding of the future's possibilities. EIGHT.- Involve Decision Makers. Integration of alternative futures into decision making truly occurs only when managers both recognize and understand these futures. That is, can the executives imagine these strikingly different futures, envision how they happen, and 'see' their particular implications for specific decisions? Such familiarity with and 'feel for' alternative futures can occur only when decision makers are thoroughly involved in shaping them, in reflecting upon them, and in considering their implications for their own organizations ? especially their impact on investment decisions. This book explicates and demonstrates how these eight tasks are combined into a scenario-learning methodology to address the three survival challenges noted previously...” [202]

« CHAPTER 8 »
GLOSSARY

B

Breakthrough

1. An act of overcoming or penetrating an obstacle or restriction.
2. A military offensive that penetrates an enemy's lines of defense.
3. A major achievement or success that permits further progress, as in technology.

Bibliography on Breakthrough: http://www.thefreedictionary.com/breakthrough

F

Fuzzy logic is a form of multi-valued logic derived from fuzzy set theory to deal with reasoning that is approximate rather than precise. In contrast with “crisp logic”, where binary sets have binary logic, fuzzy logic variables may have a truth value that ranges between 0 and 1 and is not constrained to the two truth values of classic propositional logic.[136] Furthermore, when linguistic variables are used, these degrees may be managed by specific functions.

Fuzzy logic emerged as a consequence of the 1965 proposal of fuzzy set theory by Lotfi Zadeh.[2][3] Though fuzzy logic has been applied to many fields, from control theory to artificial intelligence, it still remains controversial among most statisticians, who prefer Bayesian logic, and some control engineers, who prefer traditional two-valued logic.

Fuzzy logic and probabilistic logic are mathematically similar — both have truth values ranging between 0 and 1 — but conceptually distinct, due to different interpretations-see interpretations of probability theory. Fuzzy logic corresponds to “degrees of truth”, while probabilistic logic corresponds to “probability, likelihood”; as these differ, fuzzy logic and probabilistic logic yield different models of the same real-world situations.

Both degrees of truth and probabilities range between 0 and 1 and hence may seem similar at first. For example, let a 100 ml glass contain 30 ml of water. Then we may consider two concepts: Empty and Full. The meaning of each of them can be represented by a certain fuzzy set. Then one might define the glass as being 0.7 empty and 0.3 full. Note that the concept of emptiness would be subjective and thus would depend on the observer or designer. Another designer might equally well design a set membership function where the glass would be considered full for all values down to 50 ml. It is essential to realize that fuzzy logic uses truth degrees as a mathematical model of the vagueness phenomenon while probability is a mathematical model of randomness. A probabilistic setting would first define a scalar variable for the fullness of the glass, and second, conditional distributions describing the probability that someone would call the glass full given a specific fullness level. This model, however, has no sense without accepting occurrence of some event, e.g. that after a few minutes, the glass will be half empty. Note that the conditioning can be achieved by having a specific observer that randomly selects the level for the glass, a distribution over deterministic observers, or both. Consequently, probability has nothing in common with fuzziness, these are simply different concepts which superficially seem similar because of using the same unit interval of real numbers [0,1]. Still, since theorems such as De Morgan's have dual applicability and properties of random variables are analogous to properties of binary logic states, one can see where the confusion might arise. [90]

S

State-of-the-Art

The state-of-the-art is the highest level of development, as of a device, technique, or scientific field, achieved at a particular time. It also applies to the level of development (as of a device, procedure, process, technique, or science) reached at any particular time usually as a result of modern methods.

The earliest usage of the term “state-of-the-art” documented by the Oxford English Dictionary dates back to 1910 from an engineering manual by Henry Harrison Suplee (1856-post 1943), an engineering graduate (U. Of Pennsylvania, 1876), titled Gas Turbine: progress in the design and construction of turbines operated by gases of combustion. It reads, “In the present state of the art this is all that can be done.”
The highest level of development, as of a device, technique, or scientific field, achieved at a particular time: “Forty or fifty years ago the state of the art in radio was represented by crackling noises coming from a console of . . . Aztec-temple shape” (New Yorker).

The level of knowledge and development achieved in a technique, science, etc. esp at present
adj (prenominal) state-of-the-art ....the most recent and therefore considered the best; up-to-the-minute a state-of-the-art amplifier

Source to State-of-the-Art:
http://www.thefreedictionary.com/State+of+the+Art

Stratum, Strata, Stratums
n. pl. stra•ta (-t) or stra•tums

1. A horizontal layer of material, especially one of several parallel layers arranged one on top of another.

2. Geology A bed or layer of sedimentary rock having approximately the same composition throughout.

3. Any of the regions of the atmosphere, such as the troposphere, that occur as layers.

4. Biology A layer of tissue: the epithelial stratum.

5. A level of society composed of people with similar social, cultural, or economic status.

6. One of a number of layers, levels, or divisions in an organized system: a complex poem with many strata of meaning.

Stratum source: http://www.thefreedictionary.com/stratum

Q

Quantum mechanics (QM) or quantum physics or quantum theory, is a branch of physics that provides a mathematical description of much of the wave-like behavior and interactions of energy and matter that depart from classical mechanics at the atomic and subatomic scales. In advanced topics of QM, some of these behaviors are macroscopic and emerge at very low or very high energies or temperatures. The name derives from the observation that some physical quantities-such as the angular momentum of, or more generally the action of, for example, an electron bound into an atom or molecule-can be changed only by discrete amounts, or quanta as multiples of the Planck constant, rather than being capable of varying continuously or by any arbitrary amount.

An electron bound in an atomic orbital has quantized values of angular momentum while an unbound electron does not exhibit quantized energy levels but the latter is associated with a short quantum mechanical wavelength. In the context of QM, the wave— particle duality of energy and matter and the uncertainty principle provide a unified view of the behavior of photons, electrons and other atomic-scale objects.

The mathematical formulations of quantum mechanics are abstract and the implications are often non-intuitive. The centerpiece of the mathematical system is the wavefunction. The wavefunction is a mathematical function that can provide information about the probability amplitude of position and momentum of a particle.

Mathematical manipulations of the wavefunction usually involve the bra-ket notation, which requires an understanding of complex numbers and linear functionals. The wavefunction emphasizes the object as a quantum harmonic oscillator and the mathematics is akin to that of acoustics, resonance. Many of the results of QM do not have models that are easily visualized in terms of classical mechanics; for instance, the ground state in quantum mechanical model is a non-zero energy state that is the lowest permitted energy state of a system, rather than a more traditional system that is thought of as simply being at rest with zero kinetic energy.

Historically, the earliest versions of QM were formulated in the first decade of the of the 20th century at around the same time as the atomic theory and the corpuscular theory of light as updated by Einstein first came to be widely accepted as scientific fact; these latter theories can be viewed as “quantum theories” of matter and electromagnetic radiation. QM underwent a significant re-formulation in the mid-1920's away from old quantum theory with the acceptance of the Copenhagen interpretation. By 1930, QM had been further unified and formalized by the work of Paul Dirac and John von Neumann, with a greater emphasis placed on measurement in quantum mechanics, the statistical nature of our knowledge of reality and philosophical speculation about the role of the observer. QM has since branched out into almost every aspect of 20th century physics and other disciplines such as quantum chemistry, quantum electronics, quantum optics and quantum information science. Much of what might be considered 19th century physics has been, to some degree, re-evaluated in terms of QM, in particular through quantum field theory and speculative quantum gravity theory. [90]

Zillion
An indeterminately huge number.

Source to zillion: http://www.thefreedictionary.com/zillion

« CHAPTER 9 »
WHAT I’VE GIVEN YOU!

I’ve given you and myself some ways of thinking and perceiving this ever-impermanent world of ours in good faith and constructively. Clearly, whatever options over the table you have the better, since I am not giving anyone ? directly or indirectly ? any type of legal advice. Seek your own expert advice and find a professional of your own independent choice.

I hope I have given both you and myself some way of entertaining (a) thinking and (b) perceiving how reflection is brought into action and execution in mainly complex settings.

With the information provided here, please consider taking proactive measure for you, your children and grandchildren.

Yet the most important task now, depending on your objectives, goals and desires, is for you to make or to fail to make your own research and to make your own conclusions as you come up with said conclusions for and by yourself alone.

« CHAPTER 9 »
ANNOTATED BIBLIOGRAPHY

NB: All links and web addresses were checked and verified to be correct at the time of publication. Because of the dynamic nature of the web, some addresses and links may have changed since publication and may no longer be valid.

[1] Every quotation and/or citation is attributed to the mentioned author of said quotation.
[2] Sir Francis Bacon (Oxford Dictionary of Quotations, ISBN: 0-19-866185-1
[3] Dr. Bertrand Russell (Oxford Dictionary of Quotations, ISBN: 0-19-866185-1)
[4] Dr. Albert Einstein (Oxford Dictionary of Quotations, ISBN: 0-19-866185-1)
[5] Dr. Buckminster Fuller (Oxford Dictionary of Quotations, ISBN: 0-19-866185-1) and at ‹brainyquotes.com›
[6] Friedrich Wilhelm Nietzsche (Oxford Dictionary of Quotations, ISBN: 0-19-866185-1) and at ‹brainyquotes.com›
[7] Theodore Roosevelt at ‹brainyquotes.com›
[8] Ralph Waldo Emerson at ‹brainyquotes.com›
[9] Dr. Malcolm Knowles at ‹brainyquotes.com›
[10] Dr. Albert Einstein at ‹brainyquotes.com›
[11] Thomas Jefferson at ‹brainyquotes.com›
[12] Dr. Henry Kissinger at ‹brainyquotes.com›
[13] Sir Winston Churchill at ‹brainyquotes.com›
[14] Antonio Machado from Oxford Dictionary of Quotations, ISBN: 0-19-866185-1.
[15] The Panchatantra (body of Eastern philosophical knowledge) from Oxford Dictionary of Quotations, ISBN: 0-19-866185-1. And at << http://bit.ly/bj0rI1 >>
[16] Bernard d'Espagnat from Oxford Dictionary of Quotations, ISBN: 0-19-866185-1.
[17] Peter Drucker from Oxford Dictionary of Quotations, ISBN: 0-19-866185-1.
[18] Dr. James D. Watson, Ph.D. as he was interviewed by Charlie Rose most recently in year 2009.
[19] Arthur C. Clarke at ‹brainyquotes.com›
[20] Otto Herman Khan at ‹brainyquotes.com›
[21] General Francisco de Miranda from Oxford Dictionary of Quotations, ISBN: 0-19-866185-1.
[22] James Canton, “Technofutures: How Leading-Edge Innovations Will Transform Business in the 21st Century” by James Canton (http://amzn.to/bYrN8q )
[23] “Revolutionary Wealth: How it will be created and how it will change our lives” by Alvin Toffler and Heidi Toffler (ISBN-10: 038552207X)
[24] Ella Wheeler Wilcox at ‹brainyquotes.com›
[25] “Future Shock” by Alvin Toffler (ISBN-10: 0553277375)
[26] “Fantastic Voyage: Live Long Enough to Live Forever” by Ray Kurzweil and Terry Grossman ( ISBN-10: 0140282025 )
[27] “Transcend: Nine Steps to Living Well Forever” by Ray Kurzweil Ph.D. and Terry Grossman M.D. (ISBN-10: 1605299561)
[28] “Leading the Revolution” by Gary Hamel (ISBN-10: 1591391466)
[29] “Emotional Intelligence” by Daniel Goleman (ISBN-10:055309503X )
[30] Criss-cross at Oxford Dictionary ISBN 0-19-861122-6
[31] Crinkum-crankum at Oxford Dictionary ISBN 0-19-861122-6
[32] Terzetto at Oxford Dictionary ISBN 0-19-861122-6
[33] Thé dansant at Oxford Dictionary ISBN 0-19-861122-6
[34] Tertium quid at Oxford Dictionary ISBN 0-19-861122-6
[35] Computronium at http://bit.ly/bvf2AE
[36] Futuretronium at http://bit.ly/aP2VlF
[37] “Einstein in the Boardroom” by Suzanne S. Harrison and Patrick H. Sullivan Sr. (ISBN-10: 0-471-70332-X
[38] Tête-à-tête at Oxford Dictionary ISBN 0-19-861122-6
[39] Dilettantes and poseurs at Oxford Dictionary ISBN 0-19-861122-6
[40] “Why Mars and Venus Collide: Improving Relationships by Understanding How Men and Women Cope Differently with Stress” by John Gray.
[41] Multiverse at http://bit.ly/2FTBYa
[42] “The Cycle of Leadership” by Noel M. Tichy (ISBN0-06-662056-2)
[43] Herman Kahn’s quotations at http://bit.ly/bgxeP0
[44] “Innovate Like Edison: The Five-Step System for Breakthrough Business Success” By Michael J. Gelb (ISBN-10: 0452289823)
[45] Déclassé at Oxford Dictionary (ISBN 0-19-861122-6)
[46] Démodé at Oxford Dictionary (ISBN 0-19-861122-6)
[47] Richard Buckminster Fuller at http://bit.ly/amahEh
[48] Yoctosecond, definition of, at http://bit.ly/c5ZMZS
[49] Dr. Pangloss at http://bit.ly/b5LkXL
[50] “Monster of omniscience” at page V, first paragraph, Concise Oxford Dictionary (ISBN 0-19-861122-6). Also viewable online at http://bit.ly/Omniscience-Monter-Bibliography
[51] Quotations by Karl Popper at http://bit.ly/d9GdeX
[52] “Radical Evolution” by Joel Garreau (ISBN0-385-50965-0).
[53] Definition of “throughput.” Throughput: Output or production, as of a computer program, over a period of time. The quantity or amount of raw material processed within a given time, esp. the work done by an electronic computer in a given period of time. An amount of work, etc. done in a particular period of time. Volume of data or material handled: the amount of something such as data or raw material that is processed over a given period.
[54] The American Heritage Dictionary’s (fourth edition, 2000)— ISBN 0-395-82517-2
[55] By John F. Kennedy, Address at Rice University on the Nation's Space Effort Delivered in Houston, Texas, September 12, 1962. SOURCE: http://bit.ly/ckBJ4r (seen on June 12, 2007).
[56] “The Art of The Long View” ? ISBN 0-385-26731-2
[57] “The New Religion of Risk Management” by Peter L. Bernstein, Harvard Business Review, March-April 1996.
[58] As quoted in title ? ISBN 978-980-293-503-1
[59] As cited by David Jay's 2006 textbook, “Mavericks of Medicine” (ISBN: 1-890572-19-5)
[60] http://bit.ly/LuNRa
[61] Einstein “on being smart” at http://bit.ly/EZMFj
[62] “A Devil’s Dictionary of Business” (2005) — ISBN 1-56025-712-1 by Nicholas von Hoffman
[63] Original source: http://bit.ly/aEmAkO
[64] Textbook: “Leading The Revolution” (ISBN 1-57851-189-5), year 2000, by Gary Hamel
[65] Oxford Dictionary ISBN 0-19-861122-6
[66] Textbook known as “A Dictionary of Scientific Quotations” by Alan L. Mackay (ISBN-10: 075031066) in 1991.
[67] Dr. Stephen Hawking was interviewed by CNN's journalist Becky Anderson in year 2009.
[68] http://bit.ly/9aLCB4
[69] “A Dictionary of scientific quotations” By Alan Lindsay Mackay - ISBN-10: 0750301066
[70] The Oxford dictionary of quotations - ISBN-10: 0199237174
[71] “The Book of Positive Quotations,” 2nd Edition (2007) — ISBN-10: 1577491696
[72] “The Yale Book Of Quotations” by Fred R. Shapiro (2006) — ISBN-10: 0300107986
[73] Well said, well spoken: 736 quotable quotes for educators by Robert D. Ramsey (1999) — ISBN-10: 0060194111
[74] Compelling conversations: questions and quotations on timeless topics by Erin Hermann Roth (2007) — ISBN-10: 141965828X
[75] Wit and Wisdom of the American Presidents: A Book of Quotations by Joslyn T. Pine (2000) - ISN-10: 0486414272
[76] The Routledge Dictionary Of Latin Quotations by Jon R. Stone (2004) ISBN-10: 0415969085
[77] Quote Unquote by M.P. Singh (2004) — ISBN: 1557099405
[78] “Inevitable Surprises: Thinking Ahead in a Time of Turbulence” by Peter Schwartz (2004) — ISBN-10: 1592400698
[79] “Mind Set” by John Naisbitt (2008) — ISBN-10: 0061136891
[80] http://bit.ly/2lvo4q
[81] As per David Jay Brown’s text book “Mavericks of Medicine” (2006) — ISBN 1-890572-19-5
[82] Singularity: Webster's Quotations, Facts and Phrases By Inc Icon Group International.
[83] http://bit.ly/b3aBN4
[84] Cumputronium at Wikipedia at http://bit.ly/4zTEHn
[85] Multiverse at Wikipedia at http://bit.ly/2FTBYa
[86] James N. Gardner’s “The Intelligent Universe” (2007) — ISBN-13: 978-1564149190
[87] Gary Hamel’s textbook “Competing for the Future” (1996) — ISBN-10: 0875847161
[88] Gary Hamel’s “Leading The Revolution” book — ISBN-10: 1591391466
[89] Eamonn kelly’s book “Powerful Times” (2006) — ISBN 0-131-85520-4
[90] http://bit.ly/bLrAOk (bibliography to Fuzzy Logic and Quantum Mechanics)
[91] As cited on “The Juran Prescription” by Kathleen Jennison Goonan, M.D. — ISBN 0—7879-0096
[92] Http://Futuretronium.blogspot.com/
[93] http://bit.ly/Past_Vs_Now
[94] http://bit.ly/Industrial-Military-Complex
[95] The State Of The University: Academic Knowledges And The Knowledge Of God (2007) By Stanley Hauerwas, B.D. M.A. M.Phil and Ph.D. — ISBN-10: 0300057253
[96] http://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Future
[97] http://www.wfs.org/forecasts.htm
[98] In the Book “How We Decide” (2009) by Jonah Lehrer — ISBN 978-0-618-62011-1
[99] “Managing Risk: Systematic Loss Prevention for Executives” (1987) — ISBN 0-13-551110-0 by Dr. Vernon Grose, D.Sc.
[100] http://bit.ly/9xPbxJ
[101] http://bit.ly/9yTWk5
[102] Adam Gordon in Book “Future Savvy …” ( 2008 ) — ISBN-10: 0814409121
[103] J. Scott Armstrong in book “Principles of Forecasting…” — ISBN: 0792379306
[104] Bob Seidensticker's book "Future Hype..." (2006) — ISBN-10: 1576753700
[105] Dr. Philip Zimbardo, Ph.D. ’s book “The Time Paradox” (2009) — ISBN-10: 1416541993
[106] Hans Moravec’s “Mind Children: The Future of Robot and Human Intelligence” (1990) — ISBN-10: 06745761187
[107] David Jay Brown’s “Mavericks of Medicine” (2006) — ISBN: 1-890572-19-5
[108] Quotations under this number either has been sent to me via e-mail or have emerged as a result of private interviews.
[109] http://bit.ly/9P6HHB
[110] http://bit.ly/be9kE4
[111] Quotations at ‹brainyquotes.com›
[112] The Adult Learner, Sixth Edition: The Definitive Classic in Adult Education and Human Resource Development by Malcolm S. Knowles Ph.D. (2005) — ISBN-10: 0750678372
[113] Napoleon Bonaparte: A Life By Alan Schom (1998) — ISBN-10: 0060929588
[114] “Science But Not Scientists” By Vernon Grose (2006) — ISBN-10: 1425969917
[115] Http://www.jfklibrary.org/
[116] Http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/
[117] Gerard K. O’Neill’s “The High Frontier” (2000) — ISBN-10: 189652267x
[118] "Life's Solution: Inevitable Humans in a Lonely Universe" by Simon Conway Morris, Ph.D. — ( 2004) — ISBN-10: 0521603250
[119] “Frases Celebres Para Toda Ocasión” (In Spanish, “Famous Sentences For Every Occasion) ? (1993) By Rafael Escandon — ISBN 968-13-1285-6
[120] “Our Final Hour” (2003) By Sir Martin Rees — ISBN 0-465-0682-6
[121] http://bit.ly/xXGMf
[122] http://bit.ly/aMQjdV
[123] “A Risk Management Approach to Business Continuity: Aligning Business Continuity with Corporate Governance” (2006) — ISBN: 1931332363
[124] Dr. Robert A. Collins, Ph.D. ’s “Resilience: Protecting your Business from Disasters in a Dangerous World” (2007) — ISBN-10: 0595409245
[125] “Thinking in Technical Analysis” (2000) By Rick Bensignor— ISBN-10: 1576600491
[126] http://linkd.in/chnhzH
[127] Source: “Against The Gods” (1998 ) ?— By Peter L. Bernstein ?— ISBN: 0-471-29563-9
[128] http://bit.ly/9h9prC
[129] Quotations and citations that are solely under the own and utter discernment and intellectual faculties of the present author. Among many amenities that are described in my biography, I am a perpetual and ruthless researcher.
[130] “Diccionario de Citas” (Spanish, “Dictionary of Quotations”) by Castañares y Quiroz ? ISBN 84-87462-03-0
[131] Respondent’s answers are in actuality own quotations of those authors, whose citations are accurate and available at <>.
[132] http://bit.ly/mB6Oo
[133] “Principles of Counseling and Psychotherapy: Learning the Essential Domains and Nonlinear Thinking of Master Practitioner” (2009) ? Gerald J. Mozdziers, Paul R. Peluso, Joseph Lisiecki ? ISBN-10: 0415997518
[134] “Cracking Creativity” by Michael Michalko ? ISBN 1-58008-311-0
[135] “The Definitive Handbook of Business Continuity Management” (2007) By Andrew Hiles ? ISBN 0470516380
[136] Ray Kurzweil’s quotations at ‹brainyquotes.com›
[137] http://bit.ly/9BWSVQ
[138] http://bit.ly/bCOZDF
[139] “The World is Flat” By Thomas L. Friedman (2006) ? ISBN-10: 0-374-29279-5
[140] “Out of Our Minds: Learning to be Creative” (2001) By Ken Robinson – ISBN-10: 1841121258
[141] http://bit.ly/NfD8z
[142] The Singularity is Near (2005) by Ray Kurzweil ? ISBN 0-670-03384-7
[143] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louis_V._Gerstner,_Jr.
[144] www.dni.gov/nic/NIC_2025_project.html
[145] http://www.saffo.com/
[146] http://www.monitorinstitute.com/
[147] http://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Alvin_Toffler
[148] http://www.brainyquotes.com/quotes/authors/a/alvin_toffler.html
[149] http://bit.ly/9gQMiY
[150] http://slidesha.re/9CN0mO
[151] http://bit.ly/10V0Xm
[152] http://bit.ly/dWw04
[153] The 8th Habit (2004) By Dr. Stephen R. Covey ? ISBN 0-684-84665-9
[154] Blown to Bits: How the New Economics of Information Transforms Strategy (1999) ? ISBN-10: 087584877X By Thomas S. Wurster
[155] Blown to Bits: Your Life, Liberty, and Happiness (2008) ? ISBN-10: 0137135599 By Hal Abelson
[156] http://bit.ly/a3oaUk
[157] “The Failure of Risk Management” (2009) ? ISBN-10: 0470387955 By Douglas W. Hubbard
[158] http://www.thefreedictionary.com/futurism
[159] http://www.thefreedictionary.com/futurology
[160] “Futuristics: Looking Ahead” ( 2005 ) By Dr. Arthur B. Shostak, Ph.D. ? ISBN-10: 0791084019
[161] “Moving Along: Far Ahead” (2005) By Dr. Arthur B. Shostak ? ISBN-10: 0791084043
[162] “Creating Better Futures: Scenario Planning As a Tool for A Better Tomorrow” (2002 ) By James A. Ogilvy ? ISBN-10: 0195146115
[163] “As the Futures Catches You: How Genomics & Other Forces Are Changing Your Life, Work, Health and Wealth” (2005) By Juan Enriquez ? ISBN-10: 1400047749
[164] “Robo sapiens: Evolution of a New Species” (2001) By Peter Menzel and Faith D’Aluisio ? ISBN-10: 0262632454
[165]“Beyond Humanity: Cyberevolution and Future Minds” (1996) By Gregory S. Paul and Earl Cox ? ISBN-10: 1886801215
[166] http://bit.ly/gWka0N
[167] “Managing Product and Service Development” (2006) By Stefan Thomke ? ISBN-10: 0073023019
[168] “The Art of Asking: Ask Better Questions, Get Better Answers” (2008) By Terry J. Fadem ? ISBN-10: 0137144245
[169] “Beyond Humanity: Cyberevolution and Future Minds” (1996) By Gregory S. Paul and Earl Cox ? ISBN-10: 1886801215
[170] “The Future and Its Enemies: The Growing Conflict Over Creativity, Enterprise, and Progress” (1999) By Virginia Postrel ? ISBN-10: 0684862697
[171] “Visions: How Science Hill Revolutionize the 21st Century” (1998) By Dr. Michio Kaku, Ph.D. ? ISBN-10: 0385484992
[172] http://bit.ly/dXWGm2
[173] http://bit.ly/guBaWL
[174] “Physics of the Impossible: A Scientific Exploration into the World of Phasers, Force Fields, Teleportation, and Time Travel” (2009) ? ISBN-10: 0307278824 By Dr. Michio Kaku
[175] “The Gutenberg Galaxy: The Making of Typographic Man” (1962) By Dr. Marshall McLuhan, Ph.D. ? ISBN-10: 0802060412
[176] http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6B16U920101203
[177] http://bit.ly/fnOO6h
[178] Massive Change (2004) ? ISBN-10: 0714844012 By Bruce Mau
[179] The Artilect War: Cosmists Vs. Terrans: A Bitter Controversy Concerning Whether Humanity Should Build Godlike Massively Intelligent Machines (2005) ? ISBN-10: 0882801546 by Hugo de Garis
[180] “Creating Tomorrow’s Schools Today: Education – Our Children – Their Futures” (2010) ? ISBN-10: 1855393948 by Richard Gerver
[181] http://tiny.cc/p3piz
[182] “The Extreme Future: The Top Trends That Will Reshape the World in the Next 20 Years” (2007) ? ISBN-10: 0452288665 By James Canton
[183] “The Predictioneer’s Game: Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future” (2010) ? ISBN-10: 081297977X By Bruce Bueno de Mesquita
[184] “Crucial Questions About the Future” (2002) ? ISBN-10: 0819182753 By Allen Tough
[185] http://tiny.cc/j33u9
[186] http://tiny.cc/ocn6a
[187] Synaptic Self: Our Brains Become Who We Are (2002) ? ISBN 0-670-03028-7
[188] The Political economy of information (1988) By Vincent Mosco and Janet Wasko ? ISBN 0-299-11570-4
[189] Management Information Systems (2009) ISBN-10: 013607846X By Ken Laudon (Author), Jane Laudon (Author)
[190] http://tiny.cc/xbob0
[191] Wilson's Ghost: Reducing The Risk Of Conflict, Killing, And Catastrophe In The 21st Century by Robert S. McNamara (2003) ? ISBN-10: 1586481436
[192] Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach (3rd Edition) by Stuart Russell and Peter Norvig (Dec 11, 2009) ? ISBN-10: 0136042597
[193] http://3.ly/XWtr
[194] “The Dance of Molecules: How Nanotechnology is Changing Our Lives” (2006) – ISBN-10: 1-56025-895-0 by Ted Sargent
[195] http://goo.gl/YFQZ6
[196] The Speed of Trust (2006) ? ISBN-10: 0-7432-9730-X ? By Stephen M. R. Covey
[197] Managing Innovation: Integrating Technological, Market and Organizational Change (2009) ?ISBN-10: 0470998105 ?By Joe Tidd, John Bessant
[198] http://goo.gl/LuojF
[199] http://bigthink.com/ideas/14657
[200] Source: http://goo.gl/iFpX2
[201] Hyperinnovation: Multidimensional Enterprise in the Connected Economy (2002) ? ISBN-10: 0333994388 by Chris Harris
[202] “Learning from the Future: Competitive Foresight Scenarios” (1997) ? ISBN-10: 0471303526 By Liam Fahey, Robert M. Randall
[203] “Rethinking the Future: Rethinking Business, Principles, Competition, Control & Complexity, Leadership, Markets, and the World” (1998) ? ISBN-10: 9781857881080 By Rowan Gibson
[204] “Connect the Dots... To Become An Impact Plyer” (2003) ? ISBN-10: 0595294928 By Dick Lynch
[205] Source: http://goo.gl/7KGG4
[206] “The Leader Manager” (1986) ? ISBN-10: 0471836931 by John N. Williansom
[207] ISBN 978-0-309-11660-2
[208] http://goo.gl/dvfoQ
[209] Inscription in Washington National Archives’ building.
[210] Found via search engine query as it was earlier mentioned in REDES, the scientific television program from the Spanish state-owned television network. (As it was seen in August 2011).
[211] http://goo.gl/3GoQe
[212] Emergence: The Connected Lives of Ants, Brains, Cities, and Software ? ISBN-10: 0684868768 by Steven Johnson
[213] www.time.com/time/printout/0,8816,2048299,00.html
[214] The (Mis)behavior of Markets (2004) ? ISBN-13 978-0-465-04355-2 By Benoit Mandelbrot

« CHAPTER 9 »
ADDITIONAL BIBLIOGRAPHY FOR SUGGESTED READING

The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology by Ray Kurzweil (http://amzn.to/co6tRs)

Lessons from the Future: Making Sense of a Blurred World from the World's Leading Futurist by Stanley M. Davis (http://amzn.to/colOCU )

It's Alive: The Coming Convergence of Information, Biology, and Business by Christopher Meyer and Stan Davis (http://amzn.to/dCMqzv)

Blur: The Speed of Change in the Connected Economy by Stan Davis and Christopher Meyer (http://amzn.to/98fuay )

Future Wealth by Stanley M. Davis and Christopher Meyer (http://amzn.to/9V9Rk9 )

The Intelligent Universe: AI, ET, and the Emerging Mind of the Cosmos by James N. Gardner and Ray Kurzweil (http://amzn.to/dv22bO)

Seeing What's Next: Using Theories of Innovation to Predict Industry Change by Clayton M. Christensen, Erik A. Roth, and Scott D. Anthony ( http://amzn.to/bLyEIo )

Our Final Hour: A Scientist's Warning by Martin J. Rees ( http://amzn.to/cRz6KE )

Technofutures: How Leading-Edge Innovations Will Transform Business in the 21st Century by James Canton (http://amzn.to/bYrN8q )

The Extreme Future: The Top Trends That Will Reshape the World in the Next 20 Years by James Canton (http://amzn.to/9RqNVm )

Futuring: The Exploration of the Future by Edward Cornish ( http://amzn.to/9sWhV1 )

« CHAPTER 9 »
ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Mr. Andres Agostini is — first and foremost — a Global Independent Professional Consulting Services Contractor, as well as a Member of the Advisory Board of ACC Group Worldwide (New York, Miami, London). He is also Executive Associate for Global Markets at Omega Systems Group Incorporated (Arlington, Virginia, USA).

He has 30 years of applied, professional/empirical experience. He has two majors on insurance management in the U.S. took “Mechanical Engineering Technology” in Dawson College (Montreal, Canada), as well as Linguistics courses in Queen's University and Saint Lawrence College (both at Kingston, Ontario, Canada). He took “Mechanical Engineering” in Universidad Metropolitana, Caracas, Venezuela.

Through his professional life and beyond upper education, he became engaged in being trained and indoctrinated by the most prominent minds and global organizations, out of the U.S. and the U.K. into: (a) Management, (b) Risk Management, (c) Group Employee Benefits, (d) Insurance, (e) Reinsurance and many other subject matter dealing with transformation of: (1) Organizations, (2) Management, (3) Leadership, (4) Business, (5) Scenario Method (beyond the three-scenario mode), (6) Systems Methodologies, (7) Systems Safety, (8) Systems Security, (9) Systems Reliability, and (10) Professional Futurology.

Beyond implementation of methodologies such as Total Quality Assurance, Kaisen (including the Toyota Production System «TPS»), Lean Manufacturing, Six Sigma, LeanSigma, Reliability Engineering (as it is jointly understood and utilized by Procter and Gable and Los Alamos National Laboratories) and other Multidimensional approaches, he is the founder and sole proprietor of the methodology “TRANSFORMATIVE AND INTEGRATIVE RISK MANAGEMENT,” based on Systems Methodology and with the applied omniscience perspective, designed by Andres Agostini in 2005. (http://bit.ly/Transformative_and_Integrative_Risk_Management )

Mr. Agostini is passionate about (a) the FUTURE, (b) Applied Omniscience Activist, (c) Not “insurance-based” Transformative and Integrative Risk Management, (d) Mind Expansionist Practitioner. I enjoy teaching a great deal!

AN IDEA WORTH SPREADING AS PER MR. AGOSTINI! We can all attempt the best to tackle so many global crises. Those concern me. However, there is one global crisis that TAKES PRECEDENT AND TUTELAGE FROM ANY OTHER CRISIS.

HE'S REFERRING TO THE EXTREMELY GRAVE AND UNIVERSAL, EXISTENTIAL RISK CONCERNING SYSTEMATIC VIOLATIONS AGAINST MORALITY, PRINCIPLES, VALUES, AND ETHICS. He's given you — as he perceives it — a profound womb-to-tomb reflections for a number of years.

In the mean time, disruption potential and its corresponding vulnerabilities are staggeringly compounding into an immeasurable defiance to Earth in its totality. Ethics AND serious rule of law AND true justice AND zero calamities equal to some viable chances as we grasp the convergence of technologies with the applied omniscience perspective.

In fact, with a “tsunami” of new knowledge (and subsequently an epic flood of obsoledge) and novel skills we might have a change of prosperity. We must all remember that all “PROBLEMS” are because of ignorance, especially that ignorance deployed by those supposed to have empowered minds that in actuality worship their preferred path: own supine ignorance in extremis!

TALK TO HIM ABOUT! We must embrace (i) science and technology, (ii) unconventional thinking in excelsis, (iii) morality and ethics, (iv) civics, justice, and rigorous law ruling, as well as compassion, humanity and really enforced harmony and peace.

“PEOPLE DON'T KNOW THAT I'M GOOD AT,” AS THIS QUESTION WAS ORIGINALLY REFERRED TO ME AT! People don’t know that he's particularly good at — with the applied omniscience perspective and systems methodology — seeing and conceiving and developing existential problems/fixes way in advance and decisively, and solving awfully complex difficulties that require maximum precision.

A STORY TO SHARE! He’s had and still have the pleasure to be hired by customers and operate with partners before the most daring and pressing situations. Fortunately, educated in the USA, Canada, and Great Britain in academia and chiefly in profession.

He has a unique way of seeing problems and their solving. Luckily and to his advantage, he has worked in many tenures and for a whole array of disparate industries.

Subsequently, he feels quite comfortable in dealing with a gamut of business issues, including some undertaken by some supranational organizations as the World Bank and special agencies like or related to or aspiring to instituting best practices by NASA.

He is always ready to take on an even more stringent challenge every time. He never advises to make crises wait when there is so much learning to capture in solving said crises.

He doesn’t only do a great deal of researching, experimenting/testing. But he, too, does huge studying and studying present “evidence falsifying” (a là Sir Karl Popper) to walk several steps forward towards the optimum omniscience repository applicable by him and via others.

He can go from huge structuralism to highly amorphous and a combination (de-structuralism) of those two without losing consistency, congruency, sense of direction, ambient/environment awareness and efficacy.

He has addressed major advisory services to top executives from Fortune-1000 corporations. Some of its clients include, World Bank, GE, GMAC, Toyota, Mitsubishi, and Abbot Laboratories.

HIS MOST SUCCINCT BIO
http://bit.ly/dsSMix

INTELLECTUAL MANIFESTO OF ANDRES AGOSTINI 3.0
http://bit.ly/a485i9

1.-HIS EXTENDED PROFESSIONAL PROFILE
http://bit.ly/9ZCMky

2.- HIS PERSONALITY TYPE at
http://bit.ly/cWEuSN

3.- WORKS, RESOURCES, TESTIMONIALS, AND REFERENCES at
http://bit.ly/bwx4oW

4.- IMPORTANT CONTACTS AND WORK PERFORMED at
http://bit.ly/cvJhzL

5.-IMPORTANT RESOURCES at
http://bit.ly/cZFE7t
http://bit.ly/a5Nuv7
http://bit.ly/cQL4ND
http://bit.ly/d2RGC1
http://scr.bi/a7CYPL
http://scr.bi/bIaMAL
http://bit.ly/Scribd_on_Agostini

6- RECENT BOOK
http://bit.ly/aa-Book

7.- MY OWN LINKEDIN GROUPS

FUTURETRONIUM LINKEDIN GROUP
http://bit.ly/Futuretronium_at_Linkedin

BECOMING AWARE OF THE FUTURES LINKEDIN GROUP
http://bit.ly/Futures_Group_Linkedin

ACCOMPLISHER’S SUCCESS TENETS
http://bit.ly/Andres_Agostini_Success_Tenets

TRANSFORMATIVE AND INTEGRATIVE RISK MANAGEMENT
http://bit.ly/Trans-Risk-Management-Linkedin

NEUROTRONIUM®
http://linkd.in/Neurotronium_at_Linkedin

NEUROWISE®
http://linkd.in/Neurowise_at_Linkedin

8.- WHITE PAPERS BY ANDRES AGOSTINI
http://bit.ly/ceoiVD

9.- ORGANIZATIONS HE HAS EXTENSIVELY WORKED WITH at
http://bit.ly/aW9eEx

10.- A NASA SCIENTIST ASSESSES AND HIRES ANDRES
http://bit.ly/dwZ9je

11.- SOME CONTACTS AND HIS REPUTATION OVER THE WEB AT
http://bit.ly/cHgeRy update

12.- “TRANSFORMATIVE AND INTEGRATIVE RISK MANAGEMENT” (MY OWN METHOD) AT
http://bit.ly/Transformative_and_Integrative_Risk_Management

13.- APPLIED OMNISCIENCE DEFINED BY ANDRES AGOSTINI AT
http://bit.ly/9exDn1

14.- MY LINES OF PRACTICES
http://bit.ly/bBJgeu

15.- ORGANIZATIONS HE HAS WORKED EXTENSIVELY WITH
http://bit.ly/9AqJYA

16.-WHITE PAPERS BY ANDRES AGOSTINI

http://bit.ly/WhitePaper-Jul10-2010
http://bit.ly/WhitePaper-Jul12-2010
http://bit.ly/WhitePaper-Jul13-2010
http://bit.ly/ceoiVD

17.- IS ANDRES AN “ACADEMICIAN” AS PER THE GOOGLE SCHOLAR PUBLICATION AT?
http://bit.ly/cTKAhx

18.- AT XING at
http://bit.ly/a6NRbO

19- DOWNLOAD HIS “…FUTURE…ELICITING…BOOK…” at
http://bit.ly/cmPqnT

20.- SEARCH ENGINES ABOUT ANDRES AGOSTINI
BY GOOGLE
http://bit.ly/9V6juP

BY BING
http://bit.ly/aOb5WW

BY YAHOO
http://bit.ly/a0PNbg

BY ALTAVISTA
http://bit.ly/arlj8m

21.- VIDEOS BY ANDRES AGOSTINI

YOUTUBE VIDEOS
http://bit.ly/c0tnPK

YAHOO VIDEOS
http://bit.ly/9rd8Z5

GOOGLE VIDEOS
http://bit.ly/dCGnXH

BING VIDEOS
http://bit.ly/d5dboj

22.- NOTA BENE: Other resources — including credentials and evidences issued by third parties — regarding my previous works and business relationships, as well as accomplishments, — has been shown in accordance to prior letters of permission by such third parties. Ensuing:

http://bit.ly/9etjhN
http://bit.ly/uCMxT
http://bit.ly/Bc4Aw
http://bit.ly/dj5p34
http://bit.ly/FIpzG
http://bit.ly/aVZjy7
http://bit.ly/uYE7j
http://bit.ly/9dF41R
http://bit.ly/9LOoz1
http://bit.ly/cMqNeI
http://bit.ly/92SCHV
http://bit.ly/9BJiMm
http://bit.ly/bBWoqn
http://bit.ly/9uB1RI
http://bit.ly/c1OiBG
http://bit.ly/3QnRG
http://bit.ly/b94uH4

23.- FUTURE OBSERVATORY (Real-time updating)
http://Future-observatory.blogspot.com

24.- TRENDS VS. DRIVING FORCES, A CLARITY-DRIVEN PATHWAY BEFORE A UNIVERSAL MANAGEMENT AND SCIENTIFIC BLUNDER! By (c) Copyright 2011 by Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved— At http://bit.ly/Trends-Vs-Driving-Forces

By © Copyright 2011 Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved — Founder, Developer and Sole Proprietor of the:

“Transformative and Integrative Risk Management”
(Problem-Solving) Methodology.

At http://bit.ly/Transformative_and_Integrative_Risk_Management

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CONTACT


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ABSTRACT, SUMMARY

Futuretronium is about the rate of change. Not only change accelerated by new scientific discoveries and technological breakthroughs. Change is now poising new challenges but also novel opportunities and benefits for those with a preparation and a will to make the most of twentieth-one century.

#1 FUTURETRONIUM®, AND THE ADMINISTRATION AND APPLICATION OF THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD WITHOUT INNUENDOS AND IN CRESCENDO AS FLUID POINTS OF INFLECTIONS ASCERTAIN THAT THE MORROW IS A THING OF THE PAST.

#2 FUTURETRONIUM®, SUBSEQUENTLY, THERE IS NOW AND HERE AVAILABLE THE UNABRIDGED, AUTHORITATIVE ELICITATION AND ELUCIDATION OF ACTIONABLE KNOWLEDGE FROM AND FOR THE INCESSANTLY ARRHYTHMIC, ABRUPT, ANTAGONISTIC, MORDANT, CAUSTIC, AND ANARCHISTIC FUTURE, AS WELL AS THE CONTENTIOUS INTERRELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SUCH FUTURE AND THE PRESENT.

#3 FUTURETRONIUM®, A RADICAL YET RIGOROUS STRONG-SENSE AND CRITICO-CREATIVE «FUTURES THINKING», SYSTEMS APPROACH TO QUINTESSENTIAL UNDERSTANDING OF THE COMPLEXITIES, SUBTLETIES, AND INTRICACIES, AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITIES TO BE EXPLOITED OUT OF THE DRIVING FORCES INSTILLING AND INFLICTING PERPETUAL CHANGE INTO TWENTIETH-ONE CENTURY .

KEYWORDS: future studies, foresight research, risk management, scenario methodology, strong artificial intelligence, robotics, intelligence technology, nanotechnology, biotechnology, applied omniscience, driving forces, trends, forecasts, changed change, intelligence, caveat.

In the last analysis and very seriously stated, the view here offers a lucrative and a useful learning and a practical tool that requires from practitioners much better preparedness before systemic volatility, universal uncertainty and ubiquitous change and ambiguity. When and if officially committed with my client and/or customer, I will not unveil trends or tendency.

I will only unveil the intermeshing, the intertwining, and the inter-coalescing of the Driving forces that will shape and re-shape the future and the present / continuum (so-called) in the most unambiguous way. I will offer also the methodical steps to outsmart every downside and upside!

The objective is the understanding the complex and subtle nature and progression of many explosive driving forces that shape and re-shape the known and unknown world. Futurists speak, out of brief synthesis, about trends and tendencies and propensities of some of said driving forces. These driving forces are not only mega, diverse dynamos that output change but also challenges, opportunities and benefits for those who are prepared and paying incessantly great detailed attention.

These driving forces, incidentally, expel: (1) Open-ended changes, (2) Preemptive changes (that is, boundaryless) changes.

You manage risks to increase your benefits and opportunities and to augment the resiliency and adaptability of the sustainability of said benefits and opportunities. In Transformative and Integrative Risk Management (below), managing risks ? not to bring about illusions of meaning ? are nothing else than the optimum management of the upsides and downsides embedded in the driving forces.

Subsequently, the material in this book ranges over many disciplines, as well as the work of many outstanding scientists.

Furthermore, present driving forces (science, technology, society, politics and economy) are churning insurmountable amounts of unprecedented change with increasing energy and scope. Accordingly, the present material is communicated with marked emphasis indeed. Emphasis will be reiterated. The undersigned does not and will not dare to oversimplify and/or underestimate the consequences and sequels of these gargantuan driving forces.

TO OFFER GREATER INSIGHT QUICKLY, LET’ SEE A PRIMER ON TECHNOLOGICAL AND SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE. ENSUING:

“ ...By the end of the twentieth century, science had reached the end of an era, unlocking the secrets of the atom, unraveling the molecule of life, and creating the electronic computer. With these three fundamental discoveries, triggered by the quantum revolution, the DNA revolution, and the computer revolution, the basic laws of matter, life, and computation were, in the main, finally solved .... That epic phase of science is now drawing to a close; one era is ending and another is only beginning .... The next era of science promises to be an even deeper, more thoroughgoing, more penetrating one than the last .... Clearly, we are on the threshold of yet another revolution. HUMAN KNOWLEDGE IS DOUBLING EVERY TEN YEARS [AS PER THE 1998 STANDARDS]. In the past decade, more scientific knowledge has been created than in all of human history. COMPUTER POWER IS DOUBLING EVERY EIGHTEEN MONTHS. THE INTERNET IS DOUBLING EVERY YEAR. THE NUMBER OF DNA SEQUENCES WE CAN ANALYZE IS DOUBLING EVERY TWO YEARS. Almost daily, the headlines herald new advances in computers, telecommunications, biotechnology, and space exploration. In the wake of this technological upheaval, entire industries and lifestyles are being overturned, only to give rise to entirely new ones. But these rapid, bewildering changes are not just quantitative. They mark the birth pangs of a new era .... FROM NOW TO THE YEAR 2020, SCIENTISTS FORESEE AN EXPLOSION IN SCIENTIFIC ACTIVITY SUCH AS THE WORLD HAS NEVER SEEN BEFORE. IN TWO KEY TECHNOLOGIES, COMPUTER POWER AND THE DNA SEQUENCING, WE WILL SEE ENTIRE INDUSTRIES RISE AND FALL ON THE BASIS OF BREATHTAKING SCIENTIFIC ADVANCES. SINCE THE 1950S, THE POWER OF OUR COMPUTERS HAS ADVANCED BY A FACTOR OF ROUGHLY TEN BILLION. IN FACT, BECAUSE BOTH COMPUTER POWER AND DNA SEQUENCING DOUBLE ROUGHLY EVERY TWO YEARS, ONE CAN COMPUTE THE ROUGH TIME FRAME OVER WHICH MANY SCIENTIFIC BREAKTHROUGHS WILL TAKE PLACE .... BY 2020, MICROPROCESSORS WILL LIKELY BE AS A CHEAP AND PLENTIFUL AS SCRAP PAPER, SCATTERED BY THE MILLIONS INTO ENVIRONMENT, ALLOWING US TO PLACE INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS EVERYWHERE. THIS WILL CHANGE EVERYTHING AROUND US, INCLUDING THE NATURE OF COMMERCE, THE WEALTH OF NATIONS, AND THE WAY WE COMMUNICATE, WORK, PLAY, AND LIVE...”

AND

“…Humans have been adding to their total knowledge steadily over the centuries, and the amount of knowledge we create is multiplying at an incredible rate. BEGINNING WITH THE AMOUNT OF KNOWLEDGE IN THE KNOWN WORLD AT THE TIME OF CHRIST, STUDIES HAVE ESTIMATED THAT THE FIRST DOUBLING OF THAT KNOWLEDGE TOOK PLACE ABOUT 1700 A.D. THE SECOND DOUBLING OCCURRED AROUND THE YEAR 1900. IT IS ESTIMATED TODAY THAT THE WORLD'S KNOWLEDGE BASE WILL DOUBLE AGAIN BY 2010 AND AGAIN AFTER THAT BY 2013...” [37]

AND

“…[THERE IS A] DOUBLING EVERY TWO YEARS [REGARDING THE TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCEMENT OF] SOLAR ENERGY BY APPLYING NANOTECHNOLOGY TO SOLAR PANELS...”

AND

“...NANO-GENETIC SEQUENCING DATA … IS DOUBLING EVERY YEAR...”

AND

“...KNOWLEDGE IS DOUBLING BY EVERY FOURTEEN MONTHS...”

AND

“...MORE THAN THE DOUBLING OF COMPUTATIONAL POWER [IS TAKING PLACE] EVERY YEAR...”

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